let's get back to action folks !
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Inter Milan (11/2 Bet365)
Inter Milan have enjoyed a very good season under the stewardship of Antonio Conte, finishing off their domestic season with an impressive 2-0 win at fellow top four side Atalanta.

To keep the best attacking line-up in Serie A so quiet was testament to how solid a defensive unit the squad have been. Two early goals were perfect for the way the 3-5-2 system sets up, allowing the team to settle in to a compact structure which proves very tough to break down.

The wing-backs have caused problems all season long in support of the front two players, usually Lukaku and Martinez but more regularly Alexis Sanchez in recent weeks. The money spent on improving the squad last summer has paid dividends and the best defence in Italy are looking to turn a good season into a superb one with a trophy to add to the cabinet.

It was of course not too many years ago that Inter were winning the Champions League final in Madrid, dispatching Bayern Munich to sit on top of European football. Although a Europa League triumph would not be as prestigious as those glory days, it would be a significant achievement in comparison to the woeful campaigns of years gone by.

Throughout the squad is significant quality. Handanovic in goal is a great shot stopper and is supported by one of the best centre-backs in world football for some time now in Diego Godin, Stefan de Vrij, the experienced Ashley Young and Antonio Candreva at wing-back.

Conte knows how to get the best out of these players and having never won a trophy outside of domestic honours, he will be determined to make amends for that in Cologne in late August.

One defeat in 14 is an impressive pre-cursor to their entry into the final rounds of the competition and it’s the squad experience, as well as the tactical nous of the coach, that makes me want to back them to go far.

In terms of the draw, they have been pitted against Getafe in the last 16. Although their opponents have punched above their way all season and can certainly cause an upset on their day, I can’t see them getting the better of Conte’s boys over 90 minutes, particularly as they limped to a poor end of the season.

Moving on to the quarter finals and it would most likely be Leverkusen to contend with. That would be tough, particularly with the Germans having ‘home’ advantage but with plenty of speculation around one or two of Peter Bosz’s star players, Kai Havertz especially, Inter should have much more focus and will be sharper than Bayer considering that Serie A has only just finished.

None of Basel, Shakhtar or Wolfsburg – the only likely semi-final opponents – possess the same top level quality as Inter do so the final looks to be the minimum expectation.

The saying often goes that goals win games and defences win championships. I think there’s a lot of truth in that so I’m going to have an each way play on the 11/2 for Inter to win the competition. I think they’ll at least get to the final so if they do, we’d get at half the returns if they fall just short or a full win if they lift the trophy.

Manchester United (11/4 888)
Manchester United can certainly look to a more positive second half of the season as a basis for belief that they can win the Europa League for the third time in three years.

A strong end to a sticky campaign with marked improvement is a tonic for a much better 2020/21 season but expectations need to be reigned in slightly in some quarters. Talk of title challenges is surely premature with some obvious problems in the United squad still yet to be solved.

In goal, David De Gea is making error after error which is not justifying his £300,000+ per week wages. At the back there are still too many individual errors and Solskjær is yet to settle on a central midfield partnership which can dominate play week-in-week-out.

Despite those negatives however, there’s some exciting elements of this team which would pose a threat to most teams in the Champions League, let alone the Europa League.

The front four players seem established in their positions. Mason Greenwood has been talked up amongst academy circles for some time now and has certainly stepped up to the plate with his goals and overall contribution to the team.

Marcus Rashford, as well as doing incredible things off the field, is getting better all the time off the left flank and is forming an effective partnership with Anthony Martial who is showing why the club spent so much money on him from Monaco a few years back with 22 goals for the season.

The addition of Bruno Fernandes however has upped the gears on United’s 2019/20 season though, improving the team’s output in the final third – even if some people see it as simply giving the Red Devils a consistent penalty taker.

United have more than one foot in the quarter finals following a 5-0 success over LASK Linz in the round of 16 first leg and with either Istanbul Başakşehir or Copenhagen to come in the next round, it should only be Wolves, Sevilla or Roma that stand in their way of a place in the final.

The outright price however is a little short for my liking to back so will look for some alternative value in the 5/1 with SkyBet on United to meet Inter in the final in the ‘name the finalists market’. That would pit the best defence in the competition against the best attack (in my view) so would be a great final.

FC Copenhagen v Istanbul Basaksehir | Wednesday 5th August 2020, 12:55

Istanbul Basaksehir head into this much delayed UEFA Europa League second leg tie not only holding a 1-0 advantage from the home encounter all the way back in March, but also having secured their first ever Turkish Super Lig title. In the end, they won the Turkish top division by four points having twice been runners-up in recent seasons.

FC Copenhagen are also used to winning their league, and although they finished second behind Midtjylland, they were a whopping 14 points behind. The Danish side however have a second chance at a major title this season as they remain in Europe, although they have a first leg deficit to overcome.

Both clubs finished their regular season on June 26th, so there isn’t a case of one side having more or less rest compared to the other. Both should be in pretty decent shape in that regard.

FCK unconvincing without key personnel
Copenhagen do have back-to-back wins to their name at least, although they made rather heavy weather of doing so. In that, they’ve made heavy weather of everything for a while now, and certainly since football resumed for them in June.

FCK initially started well by going five unbeaten, but they followed that run up with five without a win, including four defeats. Their lack of quality in strength in depth in proving an issue, and they are badly missing some key players through injury.

Viktor Fischer has played 16 minutes since football returned and is unlikely to return any time soon. Their best striker; Dame N’Doye returned from injury to score the winning goal against Nordsjaelland, however he has since left the club having failed to agree a new contract. This leaves Copenhagen much weakened in attack and a mammoth effort is required to remain in the UEFA Europa League.

Basaksehir buzzing after title triumph
A lack of strength in depth is no probably whatsoever to Basaksehir, considering they normally have the likes of Demba Ba, Robinho, Gokhan Inler and Eljero Elia regular sitting in the dugout. They’ve rotated over the last few weeks after the title was secured, so freshness also shouldn’t be much of an issue to the Turks.

One concern however is keeping just three away clean sheets in 2020, and they’ve only ever kept one European away clean sheet. How they manage this tie really is the key, as if they can pinch the first goal it’d remove any immediate nerves or concerns.

No interest in the hosts
Copenhagen are a team I have a bit of a soft spot for and always keep an eye out for them. I’ve not been impressed by them for a little while now, and whilst they’re capable of putting in a performance we aren’t seeing too much evidence of that based on more recent results in Europe.

FCK have been in this competition every year since 2017, and their only home wins in that time came against Lugano, Riga, CSKA Sofia, Stjarnan, Sheriff, Zlin, and, to be fair, Ajax, but that was March 2017.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Wolfsburg | Wednesday 5th August 2020, 12:55

The Europa League is back and there’s a tasty offering in Ukraine on Wednesday evening, where Shakhtar Donetsk host Wolfsburg in Kiev.

It’s the Ukrainian champions who have the advantage after winning the first leg 2-1 in the Volkswagen Arena. Goals in each half from Junior Moraes and Marcos Antonio helped to secure the vital win.

But that only tells half of the story with both sides spurning golden opportunities from the penalty spot. Wolfsburg keeper Koen Casteels denied Viktor Kovalenko’s effort before Wout Weghorst slipped in his run-up and skied his attempt.

If Weghorst had scored it would have made it 1-1 meaning the second half might have had a completely different dynamic. But Wolfsburg only had to wait three minutes after the break, as John Brooks headed home from Josip Brekalo’s corner.

Given how open that game was with UEFA’s stats recording 27 attempts, 10 of which were on target then this second leg is likely to follow a similar pattern, especially with the visitors having to take a few risks for them to get back level on aggregate.

Getting back to action
The Bundesliga was the first league to return and Wolfsburg’s 4-0 home defeat on 26th June was their final competitive game. That means the side have had to play friendlies to prepare themselves for this stern test. Wolfsburg played out a 1-1 draw with RB Leipzig last week, and coach Oliver Glasner reported he was “very satisfied”.

Die Wölfe will be without Renato Steffen through suspension, after his caution in the first leg. They’ve also been forced to leave behind Kevin Mbabu, who tested positive for Coronavirus last week, while Paulo Otavio remains out forcing Glasner into changes.

Shakhtar have now won nine of the last 11 Ukrainian Premier League titles, and they wrapped up their latest trophy with five games to spare giving Luis Castro the chance to rest key players ahead of this second leg.

The Ukrainians have already qualified for next season’s Champions League following their league crown, but Castro is aiming to complete the double. And, they do have European pedigree after lifting the UEFA Cup in 2008/09 – they beat German opposition in the final – Werder Bremen.

Hirnyky (The Miners) have a firm grip on this tie with their lead and with recent competitive game time under their belts, then that sharpness should see them get over the line.

Manchester United vs LASK Linz | Wednesday 5th August 2020, 3:00

Manchester United host Austrian side LASK Linz in their Europa League Last 16 second leg on Wednesday night. The Red Devils are expected to make wholesale changes, having won the away tie 5-0 prior to the Covid-19 inflicted lockdown.

Jesse Lingard sat in with manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in the pre-match press conference. The Norwegian told reporters: “Jesse will be starting but the team won't be too different from the last time we played LASK away in March.”

In that match, Sergio Romero started in goal, with Brandon Williams, Eric Bailly, Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw in defence. Shaw has been ruled out through injury along with Axel Tuenzebe, so Timonthy Fosu-Mensah or Diogo Dalot should start.

In midfield, it was Scott McTominay, Fred and Juan Mata, with Daniel James, Bruno Fernandes and Odion Ighalo in attack. Swap Fernandes for Lingard and you'd probably expect that to be the front six on Wednesday evening.

It's always tough to approach games like this from a betting point of view. There's no urgency for United to chase goals, but equally the fringe players will be looking to impress ahead of the next round. Meanwhile, LASK come into this game in poor form, having lost their last three matches of the Austrian Bundesliga campaign.

FC Basel vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Thursday 6th August 2020, 3:00

It is very much advantage Basel in this Europa League Round of 16 second leg tie having secured a 3-0 first leg lead all the way back in March. E

intracht Frankfurt face a daunting task of having to overturn such a margin, which is arguably made even more tougher considering their domestic season finished just over a month ago. On the flip side, they’ll be fresh, whereas Basel this will be Basel’s 11th game since the start of last month.

One positive for the German outfit is that they did at least finish the Bundesliga campaign in decent nick. They would lose just once in their last eight, and five were victories. This included two wins by a three-goal margin, which will serve as great preparation for the trip to Switzerland. They’d have probably wanted this game to arrive much sooner to make the most of that momentum, but what they need to do is at least obvious to score.

It is perhaps less obvious for Basel in a funny way as it does pose the question of exactly how do they approach this second leg? Considering they’ve generally conceded goals for fun this season, which ultimately cost them in the Swiss Super League title race, they’ve kept a clean sheet in four of their last six, and of course in the first leg in Germany, too.

If Basel can sort out their defence long-term then they’ll become a domestic force again, and maybe shock a few in Europe. They certainly shocked everyone with their first leg success, but they probably caught Frankfurt at the right time as they had just been smashed by Bayern Munich and would then lose their next two after facing Basel.

Eintracht Frankfurt To Score First (20/21 Boylesports)
Frankfurt boss Adi Hütter will have been especially hurt by the first leg demise considering he is a former Young Boys manager; a big rival of Basel. There is a bit of a Swiss vibe going on in the Frankfurt squad too, so motivation won’t be an issue and they’ll be keen to make a bit of history against all the odds. Hütter has been speaking how they aim to “make the impossible possible”, but the reality is they’re right up against it.

The message for the past month at Frankfurt will undoubtedly be about the need for an early goal in this clash. That will set up a few fears in the Basel ranks and ultimately give the German club the boost they need. They generally started their Bundesliga away games quite slowly, which isn’t ideal, but circumstances have changed meaning they are energised for this and there may be a few heavy legs in the Basel ranks.

I’ll take a punt at Frankfurt To Score First at 20/21 (Boylesports), as I’m just not sure how Basel will play this.

Over 1.5 First Half Goals (17/11 Sport Nation)
I actually like the look of goals in the first half as I just don’t see Frankfurt taking the mentality of making sure they don’t concede first, knowing that will kill off the tie realistically. I fancy them to take some risks from the very start, and games involving them are generally end-to-end affairs, and the same applies to Basel.

Frankfurt ended their league campaign joint-top in relation to matches seeing both teams score, and that is all you need to know. The BTTS price is understandably on the skinny side, but the 17/11 (Sport Nation) on offer for Over 1.5 First Half Goals just keeps catching my eye and I just see it happening.

Frankfurt can’t afford to sit around, and I fancy them to score in the first half at least once, and maybe even a second, but conceding first could spark Basel into life, too.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Rangers | Thursday 6th August 2020, 12:55

Bayer Leverkusen welcome Rangers to the BayArena on Thursday evening for the second leg of their Europa League last 16 tie.

Peter Bosz’s hosts won handsomely 3-1 in Glasgow, giving Steven Gerrard’s side a mountain to climb in what would one of the greater Europa League nights in recent years should they pull off an unexpected comeback.

Recent fortunes
Rangers got their Scottish Premiership underway with a 1-0 victory at Aberdeen on Sunday, exciting young winger Ryan Kent scored the only goal of the game on 21 minutes. It was more comfortable than the scoreline would suggest, taking the three points without conceding a shot on -target, a strong start as they look to deny rivals Celtic a 10th consecutive league title.

Leverkusen will have been out of competitive action for over a month by the time they meet the Gers, suggesting the Scottish side could have the edge.

Die Werkself will need to play themselves into some form if they are to go deep into the tournament having tripped up towards the end of the Bundesliga campaign, relinquishing their grip on fourth place and Champions League qualification, pipped to the post by two points by Borussia Monchengladbach.

Bosz’s personnel
This disappointment could spur on the young squad, determined to play on Europe’s top stage next season, which can be earned by winning the competition. The spotlight will largely be on the performance of widely reported Chelsea transfer target Kai Havertz.

The German forward is subject to rumours of transfer fees in the region of £70million, Havertz has caught fire particularly since the turn of the year, contributing 17 goals and nine assists in all competitions.

In and around Havertz, there is no let up in youthful attacking talent with Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey, scorer of the third goal in the first leg, expected to be involved. It will be an intense examination for Rangers’ new centre back partnership of ex-Brighton duo Connor Goldson and Leon Balogun.

Experienced compared to his peers, striker Kevin Volland returned to fitness towards the end of the campaign and scored the only goal of the game on the final day as Leverkusen beat Mainz. A lot more of a physical threat than the other attackers, Volland adds some nice variety for Bosz to use in what could be a busy schedule should they progress.

The betting angles
Bayer Leverkusen will look to play themselves into some form in this encounter, looking for a positive result even with their outstanding two goal advantage. Havertz will want to perform well in the shop window therefore the aggregate scoreline should not affect proceedings too much. Expect Rangers to be on the back foot for the majority.

Back Leverkusen with a -1 Asian Handicap on GentingBet at odds of 6/5 and we'll have the insurance of your stake back if the home side only win by a goal.

Leverkusen to Win to Nil is also recommended. Sven Bender and Edmond Tapsoba showed plenty of signs they are to become a brilliant defensive partnership in the second half of the Bundesliga season, they too will want to perform strongly on their return to action.

Wolves vs Olympiakos | Thursday 6th August 2020, 3:00

One-hundred-and-40-days have passed since Wolves played out a 1-1 draw against Olympiacos at the Karaiskakis Stadium. Pedro Neto’s away goal gives Old Gold a slight advantage coming into this second leg.

The aim for Wolves is simple – win this competition to qualify for European football next season. Defeat at Chelsea on the final day meant a seventh-place finish in the Premier League, but that wasn’t good enough after Arsenal’s FA Cup win on Saturday.

It was a rather flat end for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side at Stamford Bridge. It wasn’t their usual performance, it lacked in energy, seeing just one shot on target, so a bit of a break might serve as a boost to recharge their batteries.

Their Greek opponents will pose them a few problems. Olympiacos dropped out of the Champions League, but gave Spurs a run for their money in two group games – they led 2-0 in London before going down 4-2.

In the previous round of this competition, they took Arsenal to extra-time where Youssef El-Arabi’s 119th-minute goal proved decisive. And after the first leg, Wolves know the dangers after the Greek side took the lead, that’s despite having Ruben Semedo dismissed.

Slow-starting Wolves
Wolves’ record at Molineux is quite strong across all competitions this season – W14-D9-L5. In the Premier League, they only lost four times here, and those defeats came against Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea & Spurs – clubs known for their European exploits.

But one well-documented thing was around their slow starts. If you break down the Premier League numbers, you’ll see they scored 14 first-half goals compared to 37 in the second. And, that figure of 37 was only bettered by Liverpool (41) and Man City (54).

While playing teams from the continent, the pattern is somewhat similar, especially here at Molineux. Nineteen goals have been scored here in this competition with 16 of those coming after half-time (84%). That’s huge!

The hosts have that all-important away goal giving them the edge. That forces Olympiacos’ hand, but it won’t make them gung-ho. It’ll be a case of keeping it tight for as long as possible to keep Wolves at arms-length.

But the Erythrolefki will have to do it without ‘keeper Jose Sa, who picked up an injury in training, and the suspended Ruben Semedo. That weakens their defence, which is strong in the Greek league, but porous in Europe.

The betting angles
Wolves have been chalked up as 4/6 favourites, but they have tended to make heavy weather of multiple matches. Four of seven games in the Europa League have been level at the break before Old Gold went on to win. And, that includes 4-0 wins over Besiktas and Pyunik.

Their strength in depth and power-packed frontline should have too much for the Greek side, so if you feel Wolves are a tad tight pricewise in the outrights, it might be worth a dip into the half-time/full-time market.

Taking the draw at the break and the hosts going on to win looks worth backing at 7/2 with Sky Bet. It’ll be interesting to see if Nuno starts Adama Traore given his shoulder issue, plus they’ve got former Olympiacos man Daniel Podence who has speed to burn from the bench.

With the state of play, Wolves scoring a late winner wouldn’t be too much of a shock.

Champions League starts Friday !
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After securing a ninth consecutive Scudetto, Juventus turn their attention to their Champions League last 16 second leg clash with Lyon and the need to overturn a 1-0 deficit if they are to book their quarterfinal berth.

Recent Form
After what was a frustrating end to Lyon’s season with Ligue 1 ending early and falling outside the European spots, they’ll know how important progress is in this one.

They find themselves in the bizarre situation of having played just one competitive game of football since back in early March around five months ago, with that coming against PSG in the Coupe de la Ligue last weekend where they lost on penalties.

Their opponents for this one, Juventus, won their ninth consecutive Serie A title a fortnight ago, although we wouldn’t let that mask the poor form that they’ve been in.

Maurizio Sarri’s charges have gone W6-D4-L4 from their 14 matches over 90 minutes since the return from the enforced break, including three defeats from their most recent four as it seems they have taken their eyes off the ball.

To put that in perspective, they’d lost just three league matches all season before covid hit with a win percentage of 77%, while they’ve since lost four of their 12 matches and won just 50%.

The French outfit may take confidence from Juve’s recent poor form, not to mention they carry in a 1-0 advantage following the first leg.

However, it’s difficult to ignore the fact that teams winning 1-0 at home in the opening leg have gone just W2-D4-L9 in the return fixtures of Champions League knockouts since 2011/12, as six of those losses were by exactly one goal.

Throwing Europa League games into the mix, teams in this situation have lost eight of nine winless matches since the start of 2017/18. To make matters worse, when Lyon visited any of the six teams that finished above them in the shortened season, they lost four of five winless trips, with the only defeat by more than a single goal when PSG beat them 4-2 back in February.

For all of the Italian outfits dismal form we can slightly forgive them for their hiccup against Roma in the concluding game of the season. Paulo Fonseca’s men were the form team in the league for the run in, while it’s difficult to ignore the fact that the hosts have won 21 of their 25 matches both domestically and in the Champions League this term at Juventus Stadium, losing only twice.

In fact, they managed to shut their opposition out in six of their last 10 here dating back to February and they look well primed to keep up that impressive home form.

Only Bayern (twice), Real Madrid, Man Utd and Ajax have been able to overcome them in their own backyard in Europe from 63 outings since 2004/05, and we highly doubt a team that has had just one competitive match in five months is going to be up to that task.

We do however think they can take the game to the wire, with one goal separating the sides in 22 of Juve’s 37 such wins in that period, including eight of 12 from the L16 stage onwards.

It was touch and go for a while as to whether or not the Champions League would restart this season pertaining to the Covid pandemic. It’s now been given the green light, meaning Manchester City’s 2-1 win at the Bernabeu wasn’t in vein and they stand in good stead to get their hands on the trophy that’s evaded Pep Guardiola’s side since he arrived in Manchester.

Recent Form
The Citizens have gone W9-L3 since the restart, winning all six games on home soil and more impressively conceding just the solitary strike in that time and scoring a whopping 24.

However, aside from Liverpool none of those sides hold a candle to Zinedine Zidane’s charges, who have become specialists in this competition having won it three times under the Frenchman already.

Having returned to his post in March last year, Zizou won the title this year as Madrid set their best defensive record for 30 years, as well as having the most goalscorers in a single season (21), signalling a shift in the former reliance on Cristiano Ronaldo.

We therefore can’t see City keeping their seventh clean sheet in eight matches at the Etihad, though they should have enough to see off the Spaniards.

That rings especially true considering Los Blancos will be without star centre back Sergio Ramos after the Spaniard was sent off late on in the first leg, while Marcelo is also a doubt for this clash having missed the season run in, so it’s difficult to see how they’re going to keep Sterling and co. quiet.

Astonishingly, Madrid have lost five of the last six champions League matches that Ramos has been absent for, with the exception coming against Club Brugge in the group stage this season.

This run includes 3-0, 4-1, and 3-1 defeats to PSG, Ajax and Juventus respectively, and with City holding just as much firepower as those sides, we can’t see this going the way of the visitors.

Sergio Aguero will still be unavailable for City here, though Gabriel Jesus isn’t exactly a poor replacement and the Brazilian netted in the first leg.

The 23-year-old has scored four in his last six matches, while in league football Man City’s goals per game increases 31% with him in the starting line up since the beginning of 2018/19 and as much as 42% this term alone.

Everything points to a home win, though we can’t expect the visitors to draw a blank with the array of attacking talent they possess, especially when they need at least two goals and so the match result and both teams to score holds the best value.

Napoli vs Barcelona (-160)

The Blaugrana welcome Napoli to the Camp Nou Saturday night for the second leg of their Champions League tie. Barcelona has had a bit longer of a break; Napoli finished up Serie A last weekend. Napoli had a turbulent year. They fired Carlo Ancelotti (now at Everton) and hired Gennaro Gattuso. They finished 7th in the table, which is pretty disappointing for them. They are playing better for Gattuso, but I’m really not buying their chances here. Since the restart, Napoli generated 1.61 xG/game. For most leagues that’s decent, but that’s pretty average relative to the top half of the table in Serie A. 0.95 xGA/game is stout defending over the last 12 games of their season.

Barcelona also had a disappointing season, finishing second in La Liga. They also made a manager change, getting rid of Ernesto Valverde and bringing in Quique Setien. The change has been underwhelming. They play with a lot of possession, but sometimes do very little with it. A lot of meaningless chances but do control the flow of the game. The club is old but experienced. I think that could do them well in this format vs a season-long format. Since the restart they have generated 1.84 xG/game, while only conceding 0.93 xGA. I actually think these numbers could be a bit low due to the heat in summertime, compared to the cooler springtime. I think that could be holding down those numbers. Because of that and the combined xG equaling 3.45/game, I like the over 2.5, 3 at anything under -130. I also really like Barca to win the game at -160. If you don’t like juice, -1 at even money is good too. I am not buying the Napoli resurgence, and I think Messi and their squad’s extensive experience sees them through.

Chelsea vs Bayern Munich (-255)

Bayern Munich welcome Chelsea to Allianz arena Saturday night, where they have been dominant in Bundesliga. Chelsea looked completely outclassed in the first leg at home, where Bayern beat them 3-0. On top of that, Chelsea are now missing Pulisic, Willian, Pedro, Azpilicueta and Loftus-Cheek. Frank Lampard will have to play some younger players, so this tie is pretty much finished before the game starts. My angle here is on the first half ML. Over the course of the season, Bayern Munich have generated a positive 22 xG differential within the first 30 minutes of play. That is 0.58/game, which is Man City like. They like to strike fast and get a lead early. With them being up 3-0, I feel far better about grabbing them 1H compared to full game. -120 feels very cheap to me, so that’s my first play. I do also like under 3.5 at -125. I see Bayern getting a lead and making subs, and this game could have a quiet second half. As far as Chelsea goes, their injury ridden XI will struggle to create chances.

When it comes to formalities in sports, there might not be a better example than Saturday’s match between Bayern Munich and Chelsea in Champions League play.

Bayern Munich, the Bundesliga champion, carries a 3-0 aggregate lead over Chelsea entering this confrontation at Allianz Arena in Munich. The Bavarians were brilliant in the opening fixture, cruising to the victory at Stamford Bridge. Serge Gnabry recorded two goals and Robert Lewandowski added the other, giving the visitors a practically insurmountable advantage heading into second leg of this pairing.

Chelsea enters this match fresh off a 2-1 loss against Arsenal in the FA Cup final last weekend and has to be gutted after missing out on a trophy and losing American star Christian Pulisic, standout defender Cesar Azpilicueta and veteran star Pedro to injuries. All three are out for Saturday’s match.

On the other side of the pitch, Bayern Munich has had more than a month off from competitive play, with its most recent match coming back on July 4 when it earned a 4-2 triumph against Bayer Leverkusen in the DFB-Pokal finale.

According to the data at FiveThirtyEight, Bayern Munich has the second-best chance to win the Champions League title via its Soccer Power Index numbers. The Bavarians have a 94.1 overall SPI number, which is well ahead of Chelsea (86.0 points) in fifth among the teams still alive in the competition.

That same data gives Bayern Munich a 31% chance of reaching the championship and 21 percent shot at winning it all. In contrast, Chelsea has a slim-to-no chance of reaching either point, sitting at less than one percent in both categories.

Another huge component working in Bayern Munich’s favor is history. Clubs who have won by three or more goals in the first leg of a knockout match away from home have advanced every single time (that would be 92 instances to be exact), which makes this even more difficult for Chelsea in this dire scenario.

Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea Tale of the Tape

Bayern Munich has scored at least six goals in its last seven Champions League contests.

Chelsea is winless in its last seven away Champions League fixtures in the knockout round.

There have been at least three goals in seven of Bayern Munich’s last eight Champions League matches.

Chelsea has lost four of its last six away matches across all competitions.

Six of the eight spots in the Champions League quarterfinals have been secured, and the final two places are on the line Saturday as Bayern Munich hosts Chelsea and Barcelona takes on Napoli.

While Bayern is all but into the next round as 3-0 leaders on aggregate, Barcelona settled for a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture and will return home with an away goal and thus a small lead, but one that could be easily erased if Napoli finds a goal.

Before the restart of the domestic campaign, Barcelona was first in La Liga, but anyone who looked beyond the results could see the cracks appearing. Yes, they still have the world’s best player in Lionel Messi, who notched 20 goals and 20 assists again in 2019-20, but they’ve become increasingly reliant on him to generate chances.

The signing of Antoine Griezman has backfired as he hasn’t complimented Messi at all. Luis Suarez is now 33 and Barcelona’s midfield, once known as one of the world’s best, is quickly aging and unable to stop teams from cutting right through them on the counter attack.

Barcelona’s attack has become slow and they dropped points in four matches down the stretch, surrendering the league title to Real Madrid. Even as Madrid scaled back its offense in order to sure up defensively, Madrid still generated more expected goals in La Liga this season, while conceding fewer defensively.

Barcelona will be without Arturo Vidal, who is actually their fourth leading attacker on xG this year and is vital in breaking up play in the midfield.
While Napoli’s star center back Kalidou Koulibaly didn’t play in the first leg in Naples in February, he is expected to start on Saturday for the Italian side.
Napoli has had a more consistent run of fixtures since the restart, which included recent convincing wins over Sassuolo and Lazio. Even though Napoli did lose to Inter Milan, it was a match they won by more than one expected goal. Since the restart, Napoli has shored up its defense, conceding the fewest amount of xG and boasting a top four non-penalty xGD in Serie A.

Gennaro Gatuso’s side has allowed just 0,94 xG per match defensively since the restart. They don’t press much, featuring the fifth-fewest passes per defensive action in Serie A, meaning they’ll be happy to sit off the ball and look to counter.

Napoli will ultimately need at least one goal to have a chance of going through

Another well-poised game takes place on Saturday night as Napoli head to Spain to take on Barcelona. The first leg ended one apiece in Naples and the away goal for Barca sees them still pretty clear favourites to progress, especially given they’re in their own back yard here. The bookmakers have them chalked up as best price 2/5 which probably looks fair enough however this is not a Barca side to be feared anymore.

The Blaugrana failed to win the La Liga title in an underwhelming season. Since Quique Setien came in there has been an obsession with keeping the ball without a real focus on peppering the goal, it’s more about controlling the game and wearing teams down mentally more than anything.

Strangely, no La Liga side average more than 15 shots per-game, seven Serie A sides averaged more than that. So although Barcelona average the second most shots per-game in their league it is still quite a paltry figure of 13.

Barca are an extremely patient side and with the away goal in tow I think they’ll be happy to knock it about the back and Napoli on the flip side may set up in a deep block and try break quickly when the ball is turned over

Quarterfinal Odds to Advance

Man City -700
Lyon +500

Bayern Munich -160
Barcelona +140

PSG -160
Atalanta +140

Atletico Madrid -170
RB Leipzig +150

Inter Milan vs Bayer Leverkusen | Monday 10th August 2020

Inter Milan host Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League quarter-final on Monday evening. Antonio Conte's side dispatched Getafe 2-0 on Wednesday, while Leverkusen beat Rangers 1-0 to seal a 4-1 aggregate win the following evening. The straight knock-out tie between the two sides will take place at the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Dusseldorf, Germany.

Inter boss Conte will have Alexis Sanchez available for selection after he completed his permanent move from Manchester United earlier in the week week, but he will likely utilise the Chilean from the bench with Lautaro Martinez and Romelu Lukaku leading the line.

Leverkusen will be hoping Kai Havertz can showcase precisely why Chelsea are linked with a £80m move for him this summer. The 21-year-old scored six goals in seven league starts after the restart, although may play a little deeper here with fit-again Kevin Volland up-front.

However, Havertz's goals were not enough to seal a Champions League qualification spot for his side, leaving winning the Europa League as their last shot at dining at Europe's top table next season.

In contrast, Inter finished second in Serie A – just a point behind champions Juventus, albeit helped by the fact the Turin side lost their last two dead-rubbers of the season – having taken an impressive 24 points from 11 games since the restart.

Manchester United vs FC Copenhagen | Monday 10th August 2020

The Europa League quarter-finals start in Germany with favourites to lift the trophy, Man Utd, facing FC Copenhagen in Cologne.

It’s three years since the Red Devils last lifted a trophy albeit this one when they beat Ajax 2-0 in Stockholm.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side eased passed LASK Linz 7-1 on aggregate following Wednesday’s 2-1 second-leg win that saw key players rested and rotated ahead of this mini-tournament.

That wasn’t the case for FC Copenhagen, who had to overturn a 1-0 first-leg deficit to reach the last eight of a major European competition for the first time.

21-year-old Jonas Wind starred on the night in the Danish capital with two goals and an assist in the 3-0 victory. His goal in the fourth minute restored parity before two second-half goals saw them progress.

Ståle Solbakken’s side are stretched – they only named seven of a possible 12 subs on Wednesday. Striker Michael Santos is suspended, while there are injury concerns to Nicolaj Thomsen, Viktor Fischer and Ragnar Sigurdsson, while Dame N’Doye didn’t extend his contract.

Finding the value
Man Utd are as short as 2/9 in places to win this in 90 minutes, with the best price at 2/7. It’s hard to argue against those with the firepower they possess and the added rest to key players since the end of the domestic campaign.

They finished strongly to take third place and that came on the back of a 14-match unbeaten run (W9, D5). Despite the question marks over some of their defending and David de Gea’s errors, they kept nine clean sheets in that run. Plus, they’ve kept seven shutouts in 10 Europa League matches.

In this competition so far, United have allowed just an Expected Goals Against of 0.79xGA, which shows how strong they’ve been. And, with Copenhagen likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1, which can revert to a 4-5-1, then it could see youngster Mikkel Kaufmann ploughing a lone furrow up front.

That would increase the likelihood of a Man Utd win to nil, but the quotes of EVS (Bet Victor) are short enough with the one-game ‘nothing to lose’ mentality, it being played behind closed doors and, of course, VAR.