Two of Ligue 1’s worst offenses last season square off to open up Saturday’s action, as Angers takes on Dijon. Both teams couldn’t manage to score over 1.00 expected goals per match last season, so this will likely to be a defensive battle.

Dijon
Dijon has been in the relegation battle for the past few years now and just barely survived it due to the pandemic. They ranked 17th in terms of expected points and had an expected goal differential of -11.92 in 28 matches. Their main issue was their offense. They only managed to score 0.99 expected goals per match, which ranked in the bottom three of Ligue 1.

This Dijon squad lacks the talent required to stay up in the top flight. According to transfermarkt, they have the lowest total transfer value of any team in Ligue 1, not including the two newly promoted teams (Lens & Lorient).

With goal scoring an issue for Dijon, their matches averaged 2.29 total expected goals last season. That led to having 53% of their matches score or less goals.

Angers
Angers was the best defensive team in Ligue 1 last year, and they rode that defense to a 10th-place finish. They only allowed 0.93 expected goals per match last season, but all of that focus on their defense really had an effect on their offense, as they only scored 0.99 expected goals per match.

Angers really had trouble scoring on the road last season, as they only managed to score 0.70 xG per match. That low offensive output led to only 12 points in 13 matches and is what kept them from finishing in the top of the table.

With their defensive style of play, there weren’t many high-scoring games involving Angers, as 64% of their matches had two goals or less scored. Playing against another anemic offense and average defense may produce another defensive stalemate

Two of the worst offenses, combined with the best defense in Ligue 1 last season is a recipe for an under.

like the DRAW at +204 as well

This is the best match of the weekend. Rennes finished in third place, one point above Lille last season. With that, Rennes earned a spot in the Champions League, while Lille will be playing in the Europa League this season.

Lille
Before the pandemic ended the Ligue 1 season, Lille was in a fantastic run of form, winning 6 of 7 matches. They were also the second-best team at home, going 11-2-2 and accumulating a 12.2 expected goal differential.

Lille’s attack gets a major upgrade this season, adding young Canadian phenom Jonathan David from Belgium club Genk for $35,200,000. The 20-yea- old scored 18 goals in only 27 appearances in Belgium’s Jupiler League.

Lille did have a big loss though, with center forward Victor Osimhen moving to Napoli in a $77,000,000 transfer. Osimhen provided 13 goals in 27 appearances, so David will have to step up and replace that kind of production.

Other than losing Osimhen, Lille was able to hang on to the rest of their starting XI, including a defense that allowed only 1.01 xG per match. If Lille can build off their 2019-20 season, in which they had the second best expected goal differential, they should challenge for a Champions League spot.

Rennes
Rennes were really fortunate to finish in third place last season. Based on expected points, they should’ve had only 41.18 points compared to their actual 50 point total for the year. They also weren’t very good on the road, accumulating a -3.27 expected goal differential in 14 matches.

Rennes did make any major moves in the transfer market, but they did add Martian Terrier from Lyon for $13,300,00. However, he only managed one goal and one assist in 27 appearances last year.

Monaco vs Reims | Sunday 23rd August 2020

Ligue 1 has kicked-off and we see Reims travel down to the south-east of France to take on a Monaco side who will be hoping they can start the season as they mean to go on.

The coronavirus had serious implications on Ligue 1 as their season was ended prematurely, meaning that Monaco finished ninth in the table – they were just one point adrift off of the top-six before the season ground to a halt.

Monaco have not played on home soil since February and so excitement is rife at the knowledge they will be kicking off their campaign at the Stade Louis II. Interestingly, the last game they played on home turf was against Reims and that matchup resulted in a 1-1 draw

Reims know they will be in for a tough test but confidence must still be high as the curtailment of the 2019/20 season ensured that they qualified for a European competition for the first time in 58 years.

Key stats:
Monaco:

Committed on average 11.4 fouls per game at home last season (2nd fewest).
Received on average 11.7 fouls per game at home last season.
Saw 2+ cards in 7/9 home games against top-half sides last season.
In those games, the opposition saw 2+ cards on 7/9 occasions.
Scored in 8/9 home games against top-half sides last season.
Conceded in 8/9 home games against top-half sides last season.
Reims:

Committed on average 14.1 fouls per away game last season (3rd most).
Received on average 14.9 fouls per away game last season (2nd most).
Saw 2+ cards in 4/6 away games against top-half sides last season.
In those games, the opposition saw 2+ cards on 1/6 occasions.
Scored in 4/6 away games against top-half sides last season.
Conceded in 3/6 away games against top-half sides last season.
Key facts:

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 24 of Reims last 28 games.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Monaco’s last 3 home games.
Monaco are undefeated in their last 6 home matches against Reims in all competitions.
In Monaco’s last 5 opening league game of the season, over 2.5 goals has landed in every single one. They have also conceded in all of those.
Analysis
My first bet is for there to be Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score. This bet has landed in 4/5 of Monaco’s season-opening fixtures (80%) yet the odds would suggest it only has a 36.4% chance of landing.

I appreciate lots of factors change throughout the different seasons but it offers value when you consider that they were the second top scorers in the league last season overall. They were also one of the sides who shipped a high number too, so I feel that chances will be created.

Funnily enough, this was the final fixture of the curtailed season for Monaco and Reims and it produced a massive 35 shots in total. Considering the price for Over 2.5 Goals and the fact they’ve conceded in their last five opening games, it’s a bet I am all over.

Lorient open up their first season in Ligue 1 against Strasbourg on Sunday. Lorient were champions of Ligue 2 last season, earning them automatic promotion to the top flight. Strasbourg had a fantastic second season in Ligue 1, finishing in 11th place in the table.

Lorient
The reason Lorient were champions of Ligue 2 last season was due to their offense, which averaged 1.75 xG per match. They also had the third-ranked defense, allowing only 1.26 expected goals per match.The high amount of total expected goals per match (3.01) led to 57% of their matches going over 2.5 goals.

With the promotion to Ligue 1, Lorient splashed some of their new cash on Adrian Grbic from Clermont Foot for $9,900,000. Grbic bagged 17 goals and 26 appearances last season. He’ll provide a boost to their offense as they make the transition to the top flight.

Historically, teams transitioning from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 haven’t been too kind for the majority of newly promoted clubs. On average, teams see around a 40% decrease in goal scoring and a 60% increase in goals allowed from their Ligue 2 numbers. I don’t think Lorient will be one of those teams to buck that trend and will probably be in relegation battle for most of the season.

Strasbourg
Strasbourg improved from their -7.92 expected goal differential during their 2018-19 campaign to a +1.10 expected goal differential last season. The reason for that big leap is they improved their offensive output from 1.07 xG in 2018-19 to 1.28 xG in 2019-20. That may not seem like a big leap, but their defense remained consistent between years, so an increase led to a much higher expected points per match compared to 2018-19.

Strasbourg beat up on the bottom four teams last season, accumulating 13 of a possible 15 points and outscoring their opponents 15-3 in five matches. The bottom four is probably where Lorient will end up at the end of the season, so Strasbourg has a fantastic opportunity to start their season out on the right foot.