Wolves vs Sevilla | Tuesday 11th August 2020, 3:00

Sevilla’s love affair with the Europa League continues as they aim to win the competition for the fourth time in seven seasons – their opponents in contrast, despite contesting the maidan final (UEFA Cup) back in 1971-72 are preparing for their first European quarter-final in 48 years.

I watched Los Rojiblancos swat aside the challenge of Roma on Thursday where it seemed their extra freshness really made a difference in a game they should have won by more than the eventual 2-0 scoreline.

Julen Lopetegui’s side had a huge 13 days rest/prep time more than their Serie A opponents and it showed.

Although Wolves’ Premier League season finished just one week after La Liga concluded, the English side looked a bit leggy in edging past Olympiakos, no surprise maybe when taken in to account their campaign started 13 months ago on 25th July last year!

In fact, if it had it not been for a wafer thin VAR offside call and two fine Rui Patricio saves, the Old Gold would be heading for the beach rather than Duisburg for this winner-takes-all-tie on neutral territory.

Freshness could be key
I firmly believe that extra week will be crucial here and before Nuno Espirito Santo’s side did what they do and ground out a win, the Greek side caused plenty of problems, having 62% possession and being allowed to fire off 16 attempts at goal.

Sevilla could have too much about them for a Wanderers side that concluded their season with defeats to Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United and with their record against the better sides leaving something to be desired having won only six times against teams outside the bottom-five – Sevilla are one of those better sides.

Los Nervionenses ride in to this fixture on the crest of an 18-game undefeated streak (W9-D9-L0) and are also yet to be conquered by English opposition in this competition (W3-D2-L0) with victories over both Liverpool and Manchester United in the not too distant past.

Skipper and former Manchester City wide-man Jesus Navas was spot on when asked for his post-match thoughts on the Roma win and if they are “on it from minute one” here again I feel a spot in the semi-finals will be Sevilla’s.

Sergio Reguilón currently on an extended loan from Real Madrid added that they “want to win the tournament , we want to win everything we can” which is the talk of a hungry side that aren’t going to settle for finishing joint-third in La Liga – they want silverware.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Basel | Tuesday 11th August 2020, 3:00

The Europa League burst back onto the scene last week with a mixed bag schedule including both second leg ties and just one-off matches. The Veltins Arena, the home of Schalke 04, is the destination for Tuesday night when Shakhtar Donetsk faces Basel for a place in the semi-finals.

Both clubs would advance in their quarter-finals with relative ease if the aggregate scores are anything to go by. Shakhtar despatched Wolfsburg 5-1 over two legs, although their 3-0 second leg triumph last Thursday saw all goals come in the 89th minute or beyond, and they also had 10 men at the time.

Basel did a professional job in beating Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 in Switzerland having done the hard work in Germany when winning leg one 3-0 all the way back in March.

Whilst some may point towards a possible match fitness edge to Basel here, that may not necessarily be the case. Whilst Shakhtar ended their domestic season on 19th July; a campaign which saw them secure a 13th Ukrainian Premier League title, the fact that they ended the first leg with 10 men from the 68th minute and finished so well can only be viewed as a positive.

Basel only just finished their season a few days before the Frankfurt clash last week, and their domestic duties aren’t officially over yet anyway as they’ve got a Swiss Cup tie soon to come. Motivation is high, but so are fitness levels in both camps. A semi-final spot is up for grabs and is not to be sniffed at.

Germany is essentially being used as a hub for these UEFA Europa League matches from now on and I do think we can pick some clues for when we look to the two quarter-finals ties also played in this country. Sevilla versus Roma and Inter against Getafe were also played here, and both were very entertaining affairs regardless of what the two 2-0 scorelines may suggest.

Those two games produced 47 shots on goal, and an average of 23.5 shots on goal is very, very high. They were ultimately end-to-end contests, which surprised me as I expected them to be much cagier. I think that will set the tone for the remainder of the competition and we can look forward to some entertainment in both boxes.

Even so, that is generally the case when both Shakhtar and Basel are involved anyway. These are two offensively-minded teams that only have one interest, which is to create chances and score goals.

Shakhtar dominate their league, as expected, but they ended the campaign keeping only three clean sheets in 13. Keeping out Wolfsburg was also their first European clean sheet, too, which included both UEL and also the Champions League.

Basel have actually kept five UEL clean sheets in succession, which is incredible considering that included two legs against Frankfurt and also to a then free-scoring Trabzonspor side. They also had back-to-back clean sheets to end the league campaign, and if they can be just secure at the back next season then they can maybe finally try to regain the number one crown in Switzerland from Young Boys again.

That being said, Basel have still had to ride their luck, and they face a Shakhtar side which is relentless and the front three of Taison, Marlos and Moraes is a step above anything they’ve come across thus far.

I expect goals in an exciting contest played on neutral soil, with narrow preference for the Ukrainians. Skakhtar Donetsk to Win and Both Teams To Score

Atalanta vs PSG | Wednesday 12th August 2020, 3:00

This is a tantalising match up for the neutral between two sides stacked with attacking talent.

Atalanta were a few people's dark horses for this competition but they were probably scrunching up their ticket and throwing it in the bin after La Dea lost all three of their opening games at the group stage level. However, they picked up a point at home to Manchester City before beating Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk in order to progress. They then hammered Valencia to sail through to the quarter-final stage.

Atalanta's opponents are the French champions PSG, who are aiming for the quadruple after winning domestic leagues and cups. The Ligue 1 outfit may be without Kylian Mbappe here though after a horror challenge by Saint Etienne defender Loic Perrin a few weeks ago. Mbappe has been in light training though and may be used off the bench if needed.

Thomas Tuchel almost has a thankless task being in charge of Les Parisiens. He’s won everything he could have done this season but still comes in for flack from the French press, who by the way are incredibly PSG-centric. It’s almost like other French clubs don’t exist. Anyway, I think he can put this season down as a very good one, all things considered, but it really does rest on their continental pursuits – that’s what the hierarchy are hell-bent on cracking.

To many, Atalanta look like a reasonably easy team to face in the final eight but those who are well read on the continent and in Italy will be well aware of the threats that they can pose. The Nerrazzurri have topped most of the major data metrics in Serie A, not only their excellent form in the final third but their defence has been up there with the best, to my surprise.

La Dea won’t fear PSG here and will take the game to them, I think. That could mean we are in for a feast of entertainment at the Estadio de la Luz in Lisbon on Wednesday evening.

The decision to play the remaining rounds of the Champions League behind closed doors in Lisbon will undoubtedly benefit Leipzig, especially the fact that this is no longer a two-legged tie. Atletico still go in as favourites having not lost a single match since the beginning of February when including extra time and penalties, going W11-D7 over this period which secured them third spot in the league and a place in the quarters of this competition at the expense of current holders Liverpool.

The German club were in with a shout of a first Bundesliga title this season, though failure to achieve back-to-back victories since February left them struggling to keep up with high flying Bayern Munich and Dortmund.

They’ll still be happy with their campaign, though the loss of Timo Werner may be too great for them to qualify against the Spaniards.

Their goals per game drops considerably from 2.21 when the German has started for them over the last two seasons, to just 1.17 when he hasn’t.

Although that six-game sample isn’t a great indicator, it’s still telling of how much they value their all time leading scorer, and that is bound to play against them up against one of the best defences in Europe.

Atletico’s seven goals conceded in this year’s competition is only the eighth best record, though they have played a game more and before their second leg at Anfield only PSG had a better record than Atleti’s five goals conceded from seven matches.

That means that six of their eight matches in the competition have seen two goals or fewer over 90 minutes, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the same result.

Indeed, Leipzig are averaging 2.75 match goals per game in this year’s competition, though 14 of those have been scored by themselves, with their former talisman Timo Werner being directly involved in six (4G, 2A).

The German side have been known for their midfield domination, which was the pivotal factor that guided them to a 4-0 aggregate victory over Spurs in the last round, though the likes of Saul, Koke and Thomas Partey aren’t going to be overrun here and we’re struggling to see where the goals are going to come from.

The Spaniards have kept a whopping 22 clean sheets this season across all competitions, six of which have come after the recent enforced break and the ‘Unders’ looks to be the best bet for this game.

RB Leipzig vs Atletico Madrid | Thursday 13th August 2020, 3:00

RB Leipzig and Atletico Madrid continue their pursuit of their first ever Champions League trophy wins as they head to Portugal to meet in a an evenly-matched quarter-final tie.

Lisbon is the backdrop for the first ever fixture between these two sides who both enjoyed steady seasons to finish third in their respective leagues. It’s not how either would have envisaged playing out the next part of their European journey after knocking out last year’s finalists Tottenham and Liverpool but a neutral venue and one game shootout could just suit both with they way they set-up.

Leipzig, in their current ‘Red Bull’ guise, were only formed in 2009 so have had a remarkable journey to get to the final stages of such an elite competition. Rising through the German leagues with significant financial backing and at the envy of all that stood in their way, they seem to have adopted the ‘no one likes us, we don’t care’ approach to going about their rather effective business.

Attendances are 19 times higher than their debut season and the team possess some fantastic talent as well as an ambitious and well respected young coach in Julian Nagelsmann, who recently revealed he turned down the chance to manage Real Madrid to continue to build his reputation in Germany.

Nagelsmann can certainly take much of the credit for a decent on-field performance over the season but also for some smart additions to the squad which have helped with a lack of strength in depth which held Die Rotten Bullen back in recent years.

Dani Olmo and Christopher Nkunku will be important players for years to come, as long as the club can swat away undoubted future interest in their best players from the big guns in the Premier League and the likes of Bayern Munich to continue to improve.

Such success over a short space casts prying eyes in your direction and Leipzig’s management structure know that they need to keep their nerve to avoid one or two sales becoming a natural trend each summer, with Timo Werner the first high profile loss to Chelsea just a few weeks ago.

Werner’s absence for the remainder of the Champions League campaign is a blow and Nagelsmann needs to find a way to adapt without 34 of the team’s 105 goals this season but this team has goals all over the pitch due to their attack minded approach so can hurt Atletico if they use the ball well.

They will be coming up against arguably the best defence in Europe though – Atleti conceding just 27 goals in their La Liga matches and dealing relatively well with the loss of Diego Godin to Inter last year after nine incredible years of service.

Manager Diego Simeone has pulled off plenty of tactical masterclasses over the years to reach two Champions League finals and would give anything to go one further this time around and win the competition. Being in the top half of the draw, this could well be the Red & Whites’ best chance for a long time, particularly with city rivals Real knocked out and therefore unable to pile more misery on Los Colchoneros fans.

Atleti were rocked by the news in the past week of two positive COVID-19 tests in their camp, with Angel Correa and Sime Vrsaljko now isolating at home. Although neither were likely to start in this contest, it has added extra complications to Simeone’s plans and he will have worked hard to ensure the focus of his players is not distracted in any way ahead of such a crucial fixture.

The betting angles
On the outrights here, the draw has to be a lean. You’d perhaps give Atleti the edge with their defensive nous, experience at this stage of the Champions League and with Leipzig losing Werner but the sides have shared 38 draws between them in all competitions, so the 11/5 price for yet another in 90 minutes could appeal to many.

This is unquestionably the standout Champions League quarterfinal as Barcelona take on Bayern Munich. Barca progressed courtesy of a Lionel Messi masterclass when they brushed aside Napoli 3-1 in the second leg of the last 16, while Bayern threshed Chelsea 7-12 over the two legs.

Barcelona are gunning for their first Champions League final in five years, while for Bayern the wait now stretches to seven. It’s the latter who look better positioned to make a mark this term however, with the Catalan giants facing familiar problems yet again this season.

Quique Setien praised Barcelona’s resolve after coming through their tie with Napoli, but the inexperienced boss is facing increasing criticism in the dugout and probably won’t make it to next season unless he can land this trophy.

It would be the first time in over a decade where Barcelona have failed to win anything, but he was lambasted by the local press for shunning youth players like Ansu Fati and Riqui Puig at the weekend, despite Sergio Busquets, Arturo Vidal, Arthur Melo, Ousmane Dembele and Martin Braithwaite all being unavailable.

Whereas Barca were once all about tiki-taka, especially when Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta prowled the midfield, they then evolved under Luis Enrique and became more potent on the counter-attack with a more direct approach enabled by the signing of Neymar.

However, recruitment has largely been poor in recent times and the team has thoroughly lost its identity. They’re still heavily dependent on ageing forward stars Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez, with the former scoring an exquisite goal to help Barcelona past Napoli.

In fact, Barcelona only have three clean sheets from eight appearances since late June, each coming against bottom-half sides in the shape of Espanyol, Valladolid and Alaves.

Meanwhile, they have one clean sheet in their last seven in Europe as they were held to a goalless stalemate by Slavia Prague in the group stages.

Whereas Barca continue to stumble and especially away from the Nou Camp, it’s impossible to ignore the sort of form Bayern find themselves in.

So far, they’ve won 22 of 23 unbeaten matches in 2020, netting at least three times in 15 of these games, while they also registered 12 clean sheets.

We wouldn’t back on another shutout here given Barcelona’s forward talents, but we’d expect the favourites to show their dominance and outgun the disjointed Catalans nonetheless.

Bayern Munich ( 100) vs Barcelona

This feels more like a final than it does a quarterfinal.

Bayern Munich have been the best club in Europe since the restart, and I don’t think that’s even debatable. This is their tournament to lose. Barca comes down to Messi, and if he can create more magical moments; if he doesn’t, Barca can struggle in attack. On top of that, they have trouble controlling the middle third against good sides, and their back four can be leaky. Bayern, too, can give up some goals, but their team is far deeper than Barcelona. They have the best No. 9 in the world in Robert Lewandowski and over the course of their season, Bayern averaged 2.74 xG/game -- a ridiculously high number.

Messi can be the X factor, but Bayern are just the better side of these two clubs. Bayern at even money is a gift, and I see a minimum of three goals here (3.75 xG in Bayern games, 2.90 xG in Barca games).

Manchester City vs Lyon | Saturday 16th August 2020, 3:00

Lyon will be looking to produce some Champions League magic again by knocking out another of Europe’s big guns and continuing their remarkable journey in the continent’s premier competition.

Not many saw the French side progressing past Juventus over two legs but an away goal victory was hard-fought and well deserved, using the pace of their attack on the counter attack to great effect to gain the lead in the away fixture and ultimately give Juventus too much to do.

In hindsight, with Juve hardly inspiring confidence all season, Rudi Garcia’s young troops getting the better of Ronaldo and Co. shouldn’t have come at too much of a shock and this set of players is now becoming used to going toe-to-toe with some elite clubs.

Manchester City will be all too aware of that, suffering a defeat and a draw in the group stages of this tournament to Lyon just last season. Garcia had only just taken charge at the time of the 2-2 draw in southern France but he saw plenty about his squad that day which showed signs of what Lyon could be but inconsistent performances continue to hold them back – as a seventh place league finish in the abruptly ended Ligue 1 goes to show.

Whilst the team are some way of the glory days of the 2000-2010 decade, the likes of Memphis Depay and Moussa Dembele continue to impress on both the domestic and European stage and it’s Depay where I want to focus my attentions for the first bet on this game.

City should prove too strong
I mentioned City’s questionable defence and it’s something that has let them down all season long. More often than not though, their immense attacking talent overcomes those deficiencies at the other end of the pitch and I think that’ll be the case again here.

City to win, have the most corners in the game and Lyon to pick up the most cards is 2/1 with Unibet’s bet builder feature and is one I’m going to put some money behind. It’s a bet that always worth a look at when one side is quite heavy favourites for a game and all the factors point to it coming close here.

I can’t see Lyon’s defence, which has kept just three clean sheets in 13 Champions League games, being able to cope with one of (if not the best) attack in the world. Sure, Sergio Aguero being missing is a blow, but there’s more than enough in the tank with De Bruyne, Sterling and Foden – to name just a few – all in fabulous form.

The Blue Moon will dominate, it’s just about whether they take their chances. The only way I can see Lyon forcing the game to an extra 30 minutes or even winning in regular time is if they don’t make any defensive errors which seems unlikely up against such a relentless press.

Lyon largely kept Juventus at the door to find a way through the quarter-final tie but aside from Ronaldo, Juve offered nothing here and even if one of City’s forward players has an off-day, there’s plenty of others to step up to the plate.

Two clubs with very different expectations meet in Lisbon, Portugal on Saturday for a spot in the Champions League semifinals. One team expects to win the trophy, and the other has beaten the odds to get to this position. The contrast in styles will be fascinating in a quarterfinal matchup that should be an entertaining game.

Manchester City
This might be tough to read after Bayern dominated against Barcelona on Friday, but Manchester City are probably the most talented club left in the Champions League. They have the ability to put up four goals in any game (even against Premier League champion Liverpool). Over the course of their season, Manchester City’s xG/game was 2.69, and their xG differential was 1.72. Since the restart, their expected goal differential was 2.0.

The Cityzens have the best midfielder in the world in Kevin De Bruyne, who sends in constant crosses and passes that defenders don’t see coming. Man City gets a multitude of chances inside the box in just about every game they play in. The result will come down to being clinical in the box. However, they are prone to leaving themselves open at the back because of their attacking style. On top of that, their defenders are probably the weakness of their squad, so Lyon should have some chances on the counterattack.

Lyon
Lyon plays in the French Ligue 1, and finished seventh in the table. Their season was cut short due to COVID-19, when they were just one point behind the fifth- and sixth-place clubs. When they face elite competition, they like to pack it in and counterattack. This was the case in their recent game against Paris Saint-Germain in the French Cup Final, and both of their UCL games against Juventus. They have played stellar defense, but only generated 0.4 xG over those two games against Juve. (Yes, you read that correctly.) Man City will defend well and Lyon will need to take advantage of the few opportunities they do have if they want to steal this game.

Interestingly enough, Lyon have been successful against Man City. They have played twice, with Lyon winning once and the two clubs playing to a draw in the other. The matches — both in 2018 — saw three and four total goals scored, respectively.

This game will likely come down to the finishing quality of Man City’s Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling inside the box. Due to the history of the matchup, I am going to stay away from the -1.5. However, I do really like the over. Man City’s total expected goals over their season is 3.66/game. While Lyon had a low xG against Juventus, they did generate 1.28 xG/game in their season as well.

Man City play a very open style compared to Lyon, and I think both teams will have plenty of opportunities to score in this match. On top of that, the single-leg format has led to more goals in this tournament. There have been at least three goals in every game thus far (7/7).

BetShare
MC/LYO

Handicap
MCI (-2) 49%
LYO (+2) 51%

1X2
Man. City 48%
Lyon 34%
Draw 18%

Tot (3.25)
Ov 53%
Un 47%

Manchester United continue their quest for European silverware when they look to book their spot in the final of the Europa League against Sevilla on Sunday. United have been in top form since the Covid break and should get past the Spanish outfit and contest the final.

Both of these sides rode their luck slightly to get to this stage, but while it took Sevilla 88 minutes to break the deadlock against Wolves, having seen their opponents squander a penalty in the first half, Man United were taken into extra time by a plucky Copenhagen side.

Bruno Fernandes’ penalty was enough to see them qualify and that was the Red Devil’s 21st spot kick of the season, more than any other side in Europe’s top five leagues.

This is certainly the pick of the semis as both have serious pedigree in this competition in recent years, winning four of the last six editions between them. However, Sevilla’s record of five wins since 2005/06 in Europe’s second tier leaves us slightly bemused as to why they’re the underdogs.

They’re currently on an incredible 19 match unbeaten run, winning seven of the last eight of those, while they’re defensive displays have been highly impressive.

Los Nervionenses have now gone 512 minutes without conceding a goal and have recorded seven clean sheets across their last eight games, resulting in ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ paying out in 10 of their last 13 matches.

That’s not to say that Man United haven’t been in form either. They’ve now lost just once in 24 matches now, which came against Chelsea in the FA Cup, while their previous game against Copenhagen was the first time they’ve failed to find the net in 21 matches over 90 minutes, and that was largely down to the heroics of Karl-Johan Johnsson between the sticks for the Danish outfit.

The 30-year-old pulled off 13 saves across the match, the joint most in a single Europa League game since 2009, so that mitigates Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men somewhat.

The English side’s defence hasn’t been as watertight of late, though excluding a 3-1 defeat to Chelsea which came courtesy of a brace of howlers from David de Gea, they’ve only conceded two in their last five.

What’s more, Sergio Romero has conceded just five goals in 17 matches this season which is an incredible return, so we can see another low scorer here.

We can’t bank on another Sevilla clean sheet, seeing as Man United boast a dangerous frontline of Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood, while they’re also never exempt from being awarded a penalty.

We would however be surprised to see a flurry of goals go in at either end, considering there will be some seriously tired legs out there, while the fact that this is just a one-legged tie means we’d be expecting a cagier affair than usual.

Six of the eight Europa League semis over the past two seasons have featured a maximum of two strikes

Leipzig are the surprise package of the tournament after booking their spot in the Champions League semi-finals against PSG with a 2-1 win over Atletico, a remarkable achievement for a side that was founded just 11-years ago. Manager Julian Nagelsmann is one of the hottest properties in Europe at just 33-years-of-age, however, he will have a job on his hands if his team is to keep the likes Neymar and Mbappe quiet.

PSG are in the Champions League semi-finals for the first time since 1994/95, while Leipzig weren’t even a club back then having been founded just 11 years ago. The French outfit showed heart and desire to complete their comeback over Atalanta, scoring twice at the death, while Leipzig overcame a typically cautious Atletico with a late strike of their own.

This year three of four semi-finalists have never won this competition before and the only side to lift the trophy for the first time in the last 20 years were Chelsea, who had threatened plenty of times in the years.

PSG have been regulars in the knockouts in recent times and possess the superstars to go a step further, whereas Leipzig seem to lack that knowhow and are in less familiar territory than their French counterparts.

In fact, this is the first year the German outfit have reached the knockouts at all, even if it didn’t show when taking on heavyweights Atletico.

However, 33-year-old manager Julian Nagelsmann admitted in his post-match interview that the sale of star forward Timo Werner didn’t affect them against the Spanish outfit, whose deep defensive line left little room for pace in behind.

Atletico had little inspiration on the pitch going forwards until the introduction of Joao Felix from the bench, with the Portuguese winning and taking the penalty from which they scored, but PSG will take a more proactive approach and we’d expect Werner’s absence to be felt more here.

Defensive minded Marquinhos and former Stoke striker Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting got the goals for PSG on Wednesday, though Neymar left his shooting boots at home and certainly should have netted at least once, while Mbappe returned from injury via the bench and changed the dynamic of the game.

The latter showed no signs of rustiness and should start alongside Neymar and Mauro Icardi in this clash, while there’s further good news for Thomas Tuchel with Angel Di Maria set to return from suspension.

The Parisians are still without midfield metronome Marco Verratti, who is more likely to make the final should they get there, though a midfield axis of Marquinhos and Idrissa Gueye provides some steel that they have lacked in previous campaigns.

However, Tuchel will hope experienced three-time Champions league winner Keylor Navas recovers in time, with Sergio Rico more likely to deputise between the sticks.

Nagelsmann hasn’t got too many concerns after Yussuf Poulsen overcame injury to lead the line against Atletico, but centre-back Ibrahima Konate is still out following hip surgery, while summer signings Hwang Hee-chan and Benjamin Henrichs are ineligible.

These two coaches are certainly familiar with one another. Tuchel gave Nagelsmann his break as a scout with Augsburg 12 years ago, though when they managed Dortmund and Hoffenheim respectively, the former came off the better with two wins from four unbeaten matches.

Leipzig may only have lost once since early February (W9-D7-L1), but when locking horns with the two best sides they faced over this period other than Atletico, they drew with Bayern in the first game of this spell and were defeated 2-0 by Borussia Dortmund in June.

Meanwhile, PSG are W24-D3-L1 across all competitions since December, including victories over Lyon, Dortmund and Atalanta within their last six fixtures since March.

That’s a mightily impressive run for the French favourites which has been mainly down to the abundance of quality they have at the sharp end, and although their German opponents have done phenomenally well to reach this stage, we’d expect the road to end here for them.

Hardly a surprise Bayern Munich advanced through to the Champions League semi-finals at the expense of Barcelona, but with a score line of 8-2 in favour of the Bavarian giants!! Even if the tie had been played over two legs this would have been an astonishing score line and one Lyon will be wary of if they wish to book their spot in the final showpiece.

Lyon were well organized against Man City and must be respected having previously dumped out Juventus, but this should be the end of the road for them. Aside from a controversial VAR decision, Raheem Sterling’s awful miss and a fumble from Ederson, most of all they benefited from Pep Guardiola’s tinkering in their semi-final.

The Spaniard has often been criticized for over-thinking his tactics in the knockout rounds and opted for a three-man defence on Saturday, in addition to two defensive-minded midfielders.

That left creative forces David Silva, Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden on the bench, with only the former seeing any action at all as he entered the fray at 84 minutes.

Hansi Flick is unlikely to tamper with his well-oiled Bayern machine and they won’t lack spark, firepower or confidence after putting eight past Barcelona, which is the first time anyone’s done that to the Catalan’s since Sevilla in 1946. Quique Setien’s defence had been considered highly suspect prior to the 8-2 humiliation, but the Bavarians were irresistible and their output in 2020 can’t be ignored.

24 games have brought 23 wins and a draw, with the last 19 all ending in victories. The German giants scored a minimum three times on 16 occasions, including at least four goals in each of their past four outings.

These most recent encounters weren’t against meek opponents either as they bowled over a Wolfsburg side that finished seventh in the Bundesliga, fifth-placed Leverkusen in the DFB-Pokal final, and Chelsea in their last-16 second leg as they racked up an aggregate 7-1 scoreline against the Blues.

Rudi Garcia’s men will be dependent on another herculean defensive shift and individual brilliance up front if they’re to stand a chance of progressing any further.

Captain Memphis Depay will hope for a more influential performance here, having been hooked for the final 15 minutes against City for Moussa Dembele, and the latter will hope to return to the starting line-up after his brace from the bench took him to 24 goals for the season.

If there is a chink in Bayern’s armour to be exploited it might be at the back. The Bundesliga outfit were imperious defensively between late February and the end of May, keeping seven clean sheets from eight appearances, though both teams have scored in their subsequent nine matches.

Lyon won’t be opening up until they have to, but they’re always capable on the counter and at some point, a Bayern goal is going to change the picture.

Lyon had struggled for output prior to the coronavirus pandemic, but they were without attacking midfielder Jeff-Reine Adelaide and star man Depay, both of whom have since returned to action.

The 2019/20 Ligue 1 campaign was abandoned early and in Lyon’s three matches back, they’ve had a goalless stalemate with PSG in the Coupe de la Ligue final, but found the net in their second leg with Juventus and three times when facing City.

The French side have in fact found the net in eight of their nine Champions League matches this season, as well as 15 of 17 since the start of last term. Facing elite teams Man City, Barcelona and Juventus they’ve scored in an impressive six of seven matches over this period, so a consolation effort should be on the cards.

It’s a fitting final and devilishly difficult to second-guess. Inter deserve favouritism but the market may have overreacted to their semi-final demolition of Shakhtar Donetsk, leaving the Nerazzurri a little shorter than expected; after all, market leaders Man Utd were as big as 8/5 in places when they unfortunately fell foul against the Spaniards.

There's very little to split between these teams and that has been born out in the data. Both sides are averaging an Expected Goals (xG) supremacy over one per-game which goes to show just how good they have been in this competition and they are deserving finalists.
With stakes so high, and the possibility of a risk-averse nature which is common in finals, the stalemate looks the way to go at a nice price.

From a pure footballing perspective, this is arguably the most appealing final from the Last 16 draw. Two top-heavy teams who prefer to attack, score goals and entertain, it has the makings of an absolute cracker and that’s reflected in the goals markets where the line has been set at 3.5, and the market expecting 3.60 goals.

It’s difficult to oppose the high line with an anticipated humdinger ahead. An early goal for either side could lead us towards a basketball encounter and goal-heavy backers can be encouraged by 10 of the previous 12 knockout matches across both the Champions League and Europa League at neutral venues this month delivering a minimum of three goals.

The 2020 Champions League Final has arrived and it should be a doozy.

Perhaps no team in Europe has been as dominant as Bayern Munich this season. The German giants went a perfect 9-for-9 in the Bundesliga after the hiatus and then followed that up by beating Chelsea, Barcelona and Lyon in convincing fashion.

Ligue 1 didn’t finish the 2019-20 season after the shutdown but Paris Saint-Germain were so dominant in France that it didn’t matter. They won the league going away. PSG came back from the break and defeated Borussia Dortmund, Atalanta and RB Leipzig to finally reach the Champions League Final.

These are two of the best offenses in all of soccer, so expect some fireworks in Lisbon on Sunday.

If you’re a fan of high-scoring soccer matches, this is a dream matchup.

Bayern and PSG are the two best offenses in the world in terms of expected goals. Bayern averaged 2.73 xG per match in the Bundesliga, while PSG average 2.94 xG per match in Ligue 1 this past season.

Bayern’s path to the Champions League final was full of destruction and humiliation. They won Group B without dropping a point and outscored their opponents, 24-5. They annihilated Chelsea, 7-1, on aggregate and then obliterated Lionel Messi and Barcelona, 8-2, in a match that we will all talk about for years to come.

Bayern followed up their dismantling of Barcelona with a comprehensive 3-0 win over Lyon.

Bayern have not dropped a point since a draw against RB Leipzig on Feb. 9. Their last loss came on Dec. 7, 2019 against Borussia Monchengladbach. They have taken domination to a whole new level.

PSG’s journey to the final was a little more dramatic. Les Parisiens dominated Group A but then needed to come back against Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta in their first two knock-out round matches. PSG followed that up with a terrific 3-0 win over RB Leipzig.
Bayern Munich is a German juggernaut which hasn’t won the CL since 2013, but has dominated everyone throughout the competition and everyone in Germany last season. They’ve scored 42 goals and won all 10 Champions League matches this season, taking apart Tottenham, Chelsea, Barcelona and Lyon in the process.

Paris St.-Germain has never won the CL, but they feature the two best players in the world not named Lionel Messi in Neymar and Kylian Mbappe.

While all of the focus on both teams will be on the star attackers, both teams have shown significant cracks in their last few matches that the other team is actually perfectly positioned to exploit.

For Bayern, their high-pressing, high back-line approach leaves them vulnerable to balls over the top and balls into space behind the two fullbacks — two positions that Mbappe will use his pace and skill to get into.

Even though both lost to Bayern, Barcelona and Lyon had plenty of success getting in behind and exploiting the defensive liability of Joshua Kimmich at right back, combined with the lack of pace from center back Jerome Boateng.

If Bayern aren’t careful, they could get ripped open by Neymar feeding Mbappe after dropping between the midfielders and back line.

On the other side, PSG has looked most vulnerable when its back line has been under pressure. Both Atalanta and RB Leipzig were able to press and turn over les Parisiens.

For 25 minutes, Atalanta smothered PSG and left them unable to progressively pass, while Leipzig generated two high xG scoring chances by pressing PSG into giveaways.

Bayern Munich has scored at least three goals in each of its past six Champions League matches, and I can’t see the German powerhouse not bagging at least two against Paris Saint-Germain en route to the crown.

Add in the fact that Bayern Munich has averaged a ridiculous 4.2 goals per game against European foes across all competitions, and you have to love your chances of cashing this play — especially with way Robert Lewandowski and his teammates have been consistently lighting up the opposition.

Bayern Munich have been the best club in European soccer since all of these leagues restarted in June. They are undefeated since then and have looked like the most complete side in the world. They made light work of Chelsea in the round of 16, famously destroyed Lionel Messi and Barcelona, and got past Lyon by a score of 3-0.

Bayern plays a high line and lets their fullbacks, especially Alphonso Davies, push up field in attack. Because of this, they are often leaky at the back. You saw this in the Lyon match, as Lyon had three fantastic chances on the counter but just didn’t convert them. With Mbappe and Neymar out wide for PSG, Bayern needs to be more careful how they use their fullbacks in this match. Hansi Flick has usually managed the club aggressively, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a bit more tactical here given the stage.

Paris Saint-Germain are one of the more divisive clubs in the world – they are more of a group of individuals than it is a team. If there is a down year or a problem, they just throw money at it, but they are nonetheless a top-five team in terms of talent. Mbappe is on the short list of younger players (20) that could take Messi and Ronaldo’s spot as best in the world. Neymar has a bit more experience and is also a top-five player when he is at his best. And Angel Di Maria was man of the match against Leipzig.

They also have been surprisingly good at the back as well, conceding very few goals. PSG won with and expected goal (xG) differential of 3.6-1.1 vs Leipzig (3-0 score line). They have the quality and the explosiveness to score a few on Bayern, but likely will give Bayern some chances to score as well.

This is a pretty fascinating match to handicap. Both clubs are stacked with attacking talent and are a bit lacking on the defensive side. I’m staying away from the total of 3.5, but would lean under. I think this match could have a cagey start, and 3.5 is a high total. It wouldn’t surprise me if Flick was more cautious with his fullbacks to start at least. European finals are historically anything but shootouts.

Bayern 1H + 155 and ML + 105. I’ve talked about this before, but Bayern take an early lead often, including in Champions League. They averaged 1.28 xG per first half in the Bundesliga and have scored in the first half in three of four UCL matches since the round of 16 (+ 155 is great value for that). While it isn’t outlandish to pick Bayern to win in 90 minutes, I believe they are the better side. Flick will get this right tactically, and the Germans prevail.