The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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flipdog
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Oct 2008
Posts: 1475
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13-4 +21.91
3* NYY TT o 4.5 (-110)
1* NYY (-160)
Detroit blew their golden opportunity to win the series the other day IMO. Having to head back to NY certainely has to take some of that wind out of their sails. They had the yanks 2-1 with one left to play at home and they couldn't close it out. Now they have to travel back to NY with a day off. That brings us to our first situation...
DETROIT is 4-16 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 3.9, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)
So not only do they have that working against them, they send Doug Fister to the mound. I mean lets get real here...Fister is an OK pitcher plain and simple. He did have a great run at the end of the year, but if you look closely you will see a bunch of smoke and mirrors. The clubs he faced weren't top level ball clubs. Including 3 games against an injury riddled cle, a game against min & kc. To say he's turned a corner is nonsense, he's the same pitcher he was in Seattle. He benefited from playing against some **** clubs. Now lets look at Fister's road start #'s...ERA 3.29, WHIP 1.087 averaging 6.7 innings per start. Those numbers look pretty damn good, right? Well his team is 5-11 in those starts! He's not a winning propostion on the road, bottomline. Fister came in to start the delayed game back up. What happened? He faced a solid hitting team and they tattooed him. 4.2 innings pitched and he gave up 7 hits and 6 ERs. All time against the yanks he's got an ERA of 6.00 and WHIP of 1.500. Now if Fister gets in trouble early its got to be straight to the pen for Leyland, this is a must win. Detroits pen?!?! LOL....I mean you think that you can actually depend on these guys to win a game for you? ERA of 10.93, WHIP 2.143, having pitched 14 innings allowing 17 ER on 22 hits. LMFAO! That is attrocious. With Leyland making it well know that Verlander will not be used out of the pen, if the pen is needed well it could get ugly real quick. Yanks showed heart the last game, Jeter dusted the funk and the boys got some work done. Nova pitches tonight and he was a great addition to the Roster. Went 8-2 at home on the year and the team always gives him plenty of run support. He pitched great against the Tigers a few days back, throwing 6.2 only giving up 2 ER on 4 hits. He's a quite kid that knows this is the biggest game of his life to date, and loves and is willing to accept the challenge at hand. I doubt they will get to Nova, but if they do Yanks pen can surely keep them in check. The public is nailing the yanks and that does worry me a bit, however they can't always lose. However we have a much lower number of bets coming in on bases since we got some college foots tonight. I'm actually kinda surprised that the books didn't set this line a bit higher, however I'm sure that alot of sharps are seeing value on the tigers at +150. No value at hand tonight IMO yanks are in a perfect number to roll tonight.
NY YANKEES are 22-5 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.0, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*)
Expecting the yanks to win with their bats, lean over but I'm afraid that Nova may pitch the best game of his life tonight.....well hopefully!!
Also have this solid SS....
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (NY YANKEES) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL).
(190-60 since 1997.) (76%, +88.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -168.7
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.4 (Average run differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (43-11, +24.9 units).
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10-06-11 04:26 PM |
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dg84
Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 1178
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I agree that the Yankees win, but i think Fister should get more credit. I don't care if he was pitching against college players, his numbers in those last 8 starts are great no matter who he was pitching against. Having a 0.61 ratio, 0.65 ERA & a 13:1 K/BB ratio over 55 2/3 innings is pretty impressive.
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10-06-11 09:15 PM |
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