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danwaters76
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Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 762

NICE!!!

Hopefully Holliday makes the line-up today

Old Post 10-05-11 06:44 PM
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double11
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Registered: Oct 2006
Posts: 5953

Flip

Congrats on your success!

Was thinking about playing Phils/Cards S/U and then parlaying either side with the Diamondbacks and then hedging on the Brewers if that makes any sense. There's 3.5hrs between games. If the Cards win by 9:15pm you'd be in a great situation to hedge on the Brew Crew @ 9:35pm.

1unit parlay Cards/Dbacks pays 2.98units.
Could gaurantee yourself 1.5units here if Cards.

BOL!




Life can only be understood backwords. But it must be lived forward.

Old Post 10-05-11 07:00 PM
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TheBuzzard
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Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 3056

Outstanding work, Flip.




Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect. ---Mark Twain

Old Post 10-05-11 07:02 PM
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GEORGE456


Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 206

Congrats on the run Flip! You deserve it!
I'll be rooting the other way on this one just cause I'm a fan.
Take Care,

Old Post 10-05-11 09:13 PM
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flipdog
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Registered: Oct 2008
Posts: 1475

Adding...

Heavy over action and a slightly low total combined with the afternoon shadows has me having to add...

2* PHI/STL u 4 (-120) 1st 5

Thanks guys....lot of baseball left hope the run continues.

Old Post 10-05-11 10:23 PM
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diamondjim
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6975

nice flip

On under game .
larussa 10-1 under facing elimination as mgr of st louis and oswalt is an under machine on wednesdays last 2 seasons !


BOL DJ




@1diamondjim (twitter)
Location : Boston, Mass

Old Post 10-05-11 10:37 PM
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CUBANO
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Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 21143

You know, you learn the best stuff by reading your threads!




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Old Post 10-05-11 10:48 PM
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westghost
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Registered: Jul 2009
Posts: 1977

Great job ! I am thinking about 1st half Under as well. Yesterday s game started 5pm so they had about an hour and 40 min of that shadow , today it starts 6 so only about 40 min or so. I might join you .
Good Luck




I do not believe in a fate that falls on men however they act; but I do believe in a fate that falls on them unless they act.
Buddha

Old Post 10-05-11 11:16 PM
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flipdog
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Registered: Oct 2008
Posts: 1475

13-4 +21.91

3* NYY TT o 4.5 (-110)
1* NYY (-160)

Detroit blew their golden opportunity to win the series the other day IMO. Having to head back to NY certainely has to take some of that wind out of their sails. They had the yanks 2-1 with one left to play at home and they couldn't close it out. Now they have to travel back to NY with a day off. That brings us to our first situation...

DETROIT is 4-16 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 3.9, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)

So not only do they have that working against them, they send Doug Fister to the mound. I mean lets get real here...Fister is an OK pitcher plain and simple. He did have a great run at the end of the year, but if you look closely you will see a bunch of smoke and mirrors. The clubs he faced weren't top level ball clubs. Including 3 games against an injury riddled cle, a game against min & kc. To say he's turned a corner is nonsense, he's the same pitcher he was in Seattle. He benefited from playing against some **** clubs. Now lets look at Fister's road start #'s...ERA 3.29, WHIP 1.087 averaging 6.7 innings per start. Those numbers look pretty damn good, right? Well his team is 5-11 in those starts! He's not a winning propostion on the road, bottomline. Fister came in to start the delayed game back up. What happened? He faced a solid hitting team and they tattooed him. 4.2 innings pitched and he gave up 7 hits and 6 ERs. All time against the yanks he's got an ERA of 6.00 and WHIP of 1.500. Now if Fister gets in trouble early its got to be straight to the pen for Leyland, this is a must win. Detroits pen?!?! LOL....I mean you think that you can actually depend on these guys to win a game for you? ERA of 10.93, WHIP 2.143, having pitched 14 innings allowing 17 ER on 22 hits. LMFAO! That is attrocious. With Leyland making it well know that Verlander will not be used out of the pen, if the pen is needed well it could get ugly real quick. Yanks showed heart the last game, Jeter dusted the funk and the boys got some work done. Nova pitches tonight and he was a great addition to the Roster. Went 8-2 at home on the year and the team always gives him plenty of run support. He pitched great against the Tigers a few days back, throwing 6.2 only giving up 2 ER on 4 hits. He's a quite kid that knows this is the biggest game of his life to date, and loves and is willing to accept the challenge at hand. I doubt they will get to Nova, but if they do Yanks pen can surely keep them in check. The public is nailing the yanks and that does worry me a bit, however they can't always lose. However we have a much lower number of bets coming in on bases since we got some college foots tonight. I'm actually kinda surprised that the books didn't set this line a bit higher, however I'm sure that alot of sharps are seeing value on the tigers at +150. No value at hand tonight IMO yanks are in a perfect number to roll tonight.

NY YANKEES are 22-5 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.0, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*)

Expecting the yanks to win with their bats, lean over but I'm afraid that Nova may pitch the best game of his life tonight.....well hopefully!!

Also have this solid SS....

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (NY YANKEES) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL).
(190-60 since 1997.) (76%, +88.8 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -168.7
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.4 (Average run differential = +1.8)

The situation's record this season is: (43-11, +24.9 units).

Old Post 10-06-11 04:26 PM
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mgh56
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Registered: Oct 2007
Posts: 3010

I like it. Good luck!

Old Post 10-06-11 05:19 PM
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CUBANO
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Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 21143

Im in.




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Old Post 10-06-11 05:29 PM
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double11
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Oct 2006
Posts: 5953

Here's a trend..

For a trendy guy.
Was listening to 1450AM the other day and some guy called Mike & Mike and said he knew a Sharp in Vegas who said the Phillies were 1-6 all time in October when the temperature was 55 degrees or colder prior to their loss @ home to the Cards.

After he hung up, they pretty much bashed him and said, "Well i guess if the temp was 56 degrees Victorino would have caught that ball."

Anyway, tomorrow might dip into the low 50s.

BOL & thx for that gift last night




Life can only be understood backwords. But it must be lived forward.

Old Post 10-06-11 07:39 PM
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Sawyer
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Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

Nice to see you on Yanks too. Let's go Bronx Bombers!




Iron Dogs 2010-2011 Regular Season Record: 144-149, x46.58 Units (1 Unit Each Play)
Statfox Denham's Best Bets Thread 2011: 32-14, %70
NCAAB *10 Totals 2009-2010: 25-16, %60.97
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Old Post 10-06-11 08:00 PM
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dg84


Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 1178

I agree that the Yankees win, but i think Fister should get more credit. I don't care if he was pitching against college players, his numbers in those last 8 starts are great no matter who he was pitching against. Having a 0.61 ratio, 0.65 ERA & a 13:1 K/BB ratio over 55 2/3 innings is pretty impressive.

Old Post 10-06-11 09:15 PM
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mikemac243
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Registered: Apr 2008
Posts: 1376

Good

to see this. Go Yanks!!

Old Post 10-07-11 01:18 AM
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jfever
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Registered: May 2007
Posts: 1718

empire state of mind

keep the train a rollin'

Old Post 10-07-11 01:46 AM
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flipdog
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Oct 2008
Posts: 1475

13-6 +17.01

WOW is all I can say about the yanks. RISP way too many times for them to not pop the game open. Congrats to all Tigers backers and fans, you certainly deserved that win!

This is my playoff game of the year and I have been licking my chops waiting for this game. Phils come back home with slumping bats. Yes their ace is throwing, but unfortunetely in baseball it takes more than a pitcher to win a ballgame. Not going into great detail today as I'm running a bit late for work. Carp has a dominant career against the phils, his team has went 10-2 in these starts. I expect him to bounce back after a **** start on the 2nd (which his team one for him). Bottomline this price is ridiculous. Fade or Follow do what you will....

5* STL +166
5* STL +1/2 (+110) 1st 5
1* STL/PHI o 6.5 (-125)

Old Post 10-07-11 03:23 PM
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UgaBulldawg
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Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 3893

GL FLIP!

Old Post 10-07-11 04:08 PM
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double11
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Oct 2006
Posts: 5953

I'm in! Love rooting against Philly as well.

Networks are fearing a potential nightmare.

Detroit/Zona/St. Louis World series.




Life can only be understood backwords. But it must be lived forward.

Old Post 10-07-11 06:59 PM
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luckydog132
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Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 3006

Easy D11...GL flipdog...but Howard hits 2 run HR to win it...I am going up to see if i can get a cheap scalper ticket and tailgate...may end up up at off track betting a bblock from stadium...Horses and Big screens with gm on...

Old Post 10-07-11 07:35 PM
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