Yanks have been playing games for the past week or so. Its crunch time now and I expect all of that money to come together as one, unite and find a way past the first round. Sure Detroit is a scary team to play, but the ace will only take you so far. Fact of the matter is the public is eating up Verlander as a dog 72% on the ML. I can certainly see why as the Yanks faded right after the clinch, and detroit continued to motor along. One thing the public probably doesn't realize is that CC has never lost @ yankee stadium when the opposing pitcher was Justin Verlander. The yanks have played like **** on fridays, but this is the playoffs and its time to shake that bug. With the line moving up and most of the action on the tigers, its safe to say Joe ain't viewing this game the same a vegas. CC was a quality home start as he went 8-3 averaging 7.3 innings in those starts. Even if CC can't go the distance the Yanks have a much stronger pen than the tigers. Let's throw out some trends.....

DETROIT is 3-16 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 3.8, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 2*)

DETROIT is 2-15 (-12.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 3.4, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)

Play On- Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (NY YANKEES) - after a game where the bullpen threw 8 or more innings, in the second half of the season.
(33-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.5%, +24.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -121.4
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +2.3)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1, +13.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (81-49, +18.9 units).

Yanks take game one

3* NYY -130

Small action play on two hot hitting teams. Think the books set this one too low. Alot of trends to back the play as well. Maddon isn't a fool but throwing rookie Moore out their against those big bats is certainly going to lead to a few runs. Hoping this game turns into a slugfest.

1* TB/TEX o 8.5 (ev)

I like it. What do you think about TB stealing game one?

I erased your digits by accident, shoot them at me again.

Fwiw short on time so no writeups. Yanks game was a scratch and I will not replace the same wager on the game.

2* Arizona +130
2* TB +107
2* TB/TEX o 8 (-120)

Like your picks. Especially TBay(the road team won every game last yr). Do you think there will be a line on NYY/Det?

BOLTA

Good luck today flip.

4* DET/NYY u 9.5 (-120)
2* DET/NYY u 5 (-105)

Public saw the big sticks last night and are now pounding the over to a 76% clip. Fact of the matter there is a major hidden gem that most don't know about. The Yankees are 20-5 under the total in the second game of a playoff series since 97. Add on the fact that both pitchers have good numbers against the opposing teams and I like it even more. Yanks are also 19-8 under after scoring 9 or more on the season. These teams have played each other to the overs all season and the books know this along with the betting public. They took advantage and IMO set this one to high.

you don't have to sell me on an under, i'm in
GL

A little worried in the bottom of ninth but it worked out ok.

Value lies in the cards at that tag imo. Not biting though. Carp on short rest and that bully can blow up at any time. Think phillys' sticks show up again tonight.

2* PHI TT o 3.5 (-115)

I hope you are right about the Phils. It is the back end of my parlay with Milwakee. Good luck Phillies!!

4* TEX/TB u 8 (-120)
2* TEX +120

Price was whacked hard in the most important game of the year on the final day of the season. He's falling off fast and certainely isn't worthy of the chalk IMO. Couldn't dominate at home either as his 4-9 record with an ERA of 3.71 will attest to. Lewis will give the Rangers a strong 6+ innings, he's nothing special but will always give the rangers a chance at a W. As for the the total in this game, once again the public is seeing the big bats on both sides. However this isn't in texas and we got some great trends to back another big under play. With 81% on the over the total moved from 7.5 to 8 which it should. However we got a huge hook for free.

TEXAS is 16-2 UNDER (+13.8 Units) in road games after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 3.6, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 3*)

TAMPA BAY is 19-7 UNDER (+11.2 Units) in home games with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 2*)

TAMPA BAY is 30-15 UNDER (+12.3 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)

TAMPA BAY is 46-24 UNDER (+18.3 Units) at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.7, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*)

TAMPA BAY is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in home games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.3, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*)

TAMPA BAY is 50-26 UNDER (+20.2 Units) in games played in a dome this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.8, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*)

TAMPA BAY is 19-4 UNDER (+14.7 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.2, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)

There are plenty more trends, but you get the idea.

May be back later with a play on the late game.

I'm getting 7.5, I may still bite. Woulda loved to have 8

Short and sweet think yanks bats show back up tonight. Detroit pen showed it was vulnerable late in the ninth yesterday. Yanks can and should get to verlander.

2* NY/DET o 7 (-110)
2* NY TT o 3.5 (-110)

we're on the same page with that total. gl to us

im pulling for ya on this tb total here

2* TEX +103

Texas has TB on the verge of elimination after TB blew a opportunity to take the edge in the series yesterday. Hellickson is a crafty righty that has pitched very well at home. However with the Rangers smelling blood I expect them to get to him as they have torched righties all year. Harrison is a great second half pitcher, that is coming into this game off of 3 quality starts. Its also worthy to mention that he has great form on the road as his 2.99 ERA with a WHIP of 1.221 will attest to. Not to mention that his team is 10-5 when he starts on the road. When the Rangers are playing hot, they don't tend to backoff. With their confidence reinstated after a game one loss, I expect them to step on the throttle today. Some solid trends....

TEXAS is 20-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 5.0, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 1*)

HARRISON is 13-2 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARRISON 5.3, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS is 23-7 (+10.6 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 5.6, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)

HARRISON is 12-0 (+12.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARRISON 5.2, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 3*)

And this incredibly strong SS.....

Play On - Any team (TEXAS) - in the 4th game of a playoff series, after having won 3 of their last 4 games.
(39-15 since 1997.) (72.2%, +26.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +107.2
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +1.6)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0, +9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-0, +19 units).

4* PHI/STL u 7 (+100)
2* PHI/STL u 4 (-130)

Once again the public is seeing nothing besides big bats and overs in this series. So with another low total set of course everyone is going to be banging the over to a 80% clip. I for one can see no possible way to bet anything besides the under in this matchup. Fact of the matter is when it comes to playoff baseball IMO Cole Hamels is the Phils ace and has ice water running through his veins. He should be able to go deep into the game and keep the card lineup in check. Phils will certainely have their hands full as lefty Garcia gets the start. Not necessarily a pitcher to be feared, however for the Phils its a different story. They have problems against lefties and tend to play to the under against them, as they are 18-24 on the season. Add in Garcia's #'s against the Phils; ERA 0.96 and WHIP 0.929 with his team going 4-0 in those starts and he looks even better. Its also worthy to note that in those 4 starts the under is 4-0. Hamels is 3-6 o/u against the Cards with an ERA of 3.27 and WHIP of 1.000. Garcia faced the Phils twice this season and went deep into both games having only allowed 1 ER with 10 hits in 15 innings pitched. Today will be the first true pitching duel of the playoffs IMO. Add to add a little iciing to the cake we have an undo ump in Jerry Lane as over the past 3 seasons he is 36-54 o/u. Lets add some trends.....

HAMELS is 13-2 UNDER (+10.9 Units) against NL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 2.9, OPPONENT 2.0 - (Rating = 2*)

HAMELS is 38-18 UNDER (+17.1 Units) as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMELS 3.7, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 2*)

PHILADELPHIA is 25-12 UNDER (+11.7 Units) after a one run loss over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.0, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 1*)

ST LOUIS is 22-9 UNDER (+11.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 4.3, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 1*)

I may have a play or two on the later games.

BOL today Flip


You have been on FIRE

With you on the Rangers today! GL sir

3* MIL -113

It's obvious that the Brew aren't the same team both home and away. However I don't think that will matter much tonight at all. Down the strech Gibson didn't have enough confidence in Collmenter as he was skipped over a couple of times when it came down to crunch time. However there's even less confidence in Joe Saunders, and that's why Collmenter is getting the start. Collmenter started the season red hot and was quite a surprise to most. However he's been fading off since the first 3 months of the season. The kid has the goods but he just isn't ready to pitch in a playoff, life saving situation tonight IMO. Snakes have been reeling while the Brew have been cruising. One extreme plus for the brew being on the road tonight is they are throwing Marcum. A true road warrior that is has ice in his veins. On the year he's 8-3 with an ERA of 2.21 and WHIP of 0.973. Brew have not been able to hit Collmenter in 2 earlier starts on the season, I think tonight they hit him and hit him hard. Marcum is in a great price range on the road as the following trend will attest to.

MARCUM is 11-2 (+8.7 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MARCUM 5.1, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 0*)

Also we have a good situation as the snake's pen was tattooed last outing.

ARIZONA is 9-27 (-17.5 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 4.0, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)

I got the brew closing this one out tonight.

Hats off to u flip. This is starting to remind me of bawlmers college bowl run.

Stay solid

2* STL +112

Plain and simple the cards shouldve been able to pick up the win yesterday. Had it not been for Fransisco the Phils would be in a real ****ty situation today. Fact of the matter is Oswalt is not the same dominant pitcher that he was in the past. You can clearly see that by looking at his strikeout rate this year in comparison to the years past. He went 9-10 with a team that certainely won more games than they lost. Take him on the road and his numbers get pretty bad, ERA of 3.59 and WHIP 1.459. Add in the fact that his team hasn't picked up a win in STL when he started since 9/13/06, and you can see that he shouldn't be laying anything. Cards have hit him in the past and their top bats have some nice numbers against them. Pujols, Berkman, Theroit, Furcal well they all have .300+ avgs against Oswalt. Pujols who managed to tear the cover off the ball yesterday should follow up with a similar performance as he has 7 doubles, 5 HR's, and 13 RBI's off of Oswalt. Philly bats have been pretty quite the past couple of days and I feel that Jackson should be able to keep them in check for one more day. Duncan has been working with Jackson for a few months now and it shows. He hasn't lost a start in his past 7, showing that he can go deep averaging 6.3. On top of that take out a poor start against the mets and he hasn't allowed more than 2 ER in those 7 games. These 2 pitchers are pretty much even and the fact that the phils got the chalk is unreal. General public of course is eating up the phils thinking they close it up tonight. I would hope on this early as I can see this moving to a virtual pickem right before the game starts.

Trends...

OSWALT is 1-6 (-9.2 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was OSWALT 3.0, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)

ST LOUIS is 14-5 (+10.6 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 5.3, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

and a nice SS...

Play against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PHILADELPHIA) - with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games.
(150-81 since 1997.) (64.9%, +57.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -114.1
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 4.3 (Average run differential = +0.8)

The situation's record this season is: (8-3, +4.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-14, +8.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (49-23, +23.3 units).

Love the plays and love the write ups... Much respect