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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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NHL Lagniappe 4/14
Sunday, 04/14/2024 (31) CAROLINA vs. (32) CHICAGO
Favoring: CHICAGO on the money line.
Play On - Any team against the money line (CHICAGO) - off 2 consecutive losses of 2 goals or more to division rivals against opponent off 2 consecutive road wins by 2 goals or more
(26-6 since 1997.) (81.2%, +34.3 units. Rating=7*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
Sunday, 04/14/2024 (31) CAROLINA vs. (32) CHICAGO
Favoring: CHICAGO on the money line.
Play On - A underdog against the money line (CHICAGO) - off 2 consecutive losses of 2 goals or more to division rivals against opponent off 2 consecutive road wins by 2 goals or more
(23-6 since 1997.) (79.3%, +31.4 units. Rating=6*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
Sunday, 04/14/2024 (31) CAROLINA vs. (32) CHICAGO
Favoring: CHICAGO on the money line.
Play Against - Road Favorites of -200 or higher against the money line (CAROLINA) - good closing team-outscoring opp by 0.2+ goals/game in third period, after 2 straight blowout wins by 3 goals or more
(31-19 since 1997.) (62.0%, +42.3 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2 +6.6 units).
Sunday, 04/14/2024 (31) CAROLINA vs. (32) CHICAGO
Favoring: CHICAGO on the money line.
Play Against - Road Favorites of -200 or higher against the money line (CAROLINA) - good closing team-outscoring opp by 0.2+ goals/game in third period - 2nd half of the season, after 2 straight blowout wins by 3 goals or more
(22-12 since 1997.) (64.7%, +32.4 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1 +3.5 units).
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04-14-24 04:56 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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The Avalanche will look to respond to an ugly 7-0 loss suffered versus the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday, in a game which was officially a first round playoff preview. Colorado has struggled to a mark of 4-5-1 over the last 10, having allowed 4.1 goals against per game.
T-Mobile Arena has earned a reputation for being one of the toughest buildings in the league for visiting opponents. The Knights have averaged 3.41 goals for per game at home this season and played to a record of 25-11-2.
Even in their highly dominant 2021-22 Stanley Cup winning season, the Avalanche were a team that was most dominant because of their elite offensive upside. As they still hold the same coach in Jared Bednar and same roster core, it's no surprise that dominant offensive play continues to be their greatest strength in 2024.
Typically the Avalanche have balanced their elite offensive play with steady defensive play at the other end. Recently the balance has gotten out of whack though, as the Avalanche have offered far too many breakdowns in the most dangerous areas of the ice.
When teams playing a style like Colorado does get out of sync, it tends to lead to high-quality chances the other way. That was the case in Saturday's 7-0 loss, and we know cleaning it up defensively will be a priority in the final three games of the season.
The Avalanche have allowed 3.52 xGA/60 over the last 10 games, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league. They haven't received quality goaltending in that span either, leading to an average of 4.1 goals against per game.
And data aside, it's been plain to see that the Avs were exposed defensively in their important Central division matchups versus the Jets and Stars this week. By no means do the Avs need to be a truly dominant defensive team to go on a playoff run. This core has already proven that. But they will need to clean it up next week compared to what we have seen of late or it's going to be another first-round exit.
The Avalanche are still generating as many chances as anybody in the league at the other end, and rank first in the league with 3.68 goals for per game this season.
Alexandar Georgiev has been confirmed as Colorado's starting goaltender for this matchup. He has played to a +7.9 GSAx and .899 save percentage in 61 appearances this season.
Throughout their brief NHL existence, the Knights have consistently come out in front of a raucous T-Mobile crowd and got right after it with some offense. Since Vegas joined the league, it has scored more goals on home ice in the first five minutes of the game than any other team in that span.
They added to that stat in Friday win over the Wild, as they scored 2:57 into the game and lead 3-0 after one period of play.
Superstar winger Tomáš Hertl broke through with his first goal as a Knight, and played a strong game overall in his 16:57 of TOI.
The Knights skated a new look top power-play unit in that matchup, which features Hertl and the newly acquired Noah Hanifin. Their top unit broke through with two goals in that victory, both of which were assisted by Hanifin.
The Knights seem to have put a lengthy stretch of ugly play behind them and are heading towards the playoffs in solid form. The greatest remaining question mark has to be the play of Adin Hill in goal, as his level has tailed off considerably down the stretch. He has been confirmed as Sunday's starter, as he looks to shake off an ugly loss in Edmonton on Wednesday.
In 33 games played this season Hill owns a +8.5 GSAx and .911 save percentage.
The Avalanche continue to generate offense as well as anybody in the league, and love to push for chances playing an up-tempo style. Even versus a team like Vegas, the Avs' stars should be able to respond to yesterday's dud with some production. Their goaltending situation isn't overly comforting though, and their defensive play has been pretty ugly at times recently.
The Knights are packing a more notable offensive punch now than they have throughout much of the season. Their power play has looked far sharper recently, and we saw last postseason how clinical they can be off of the rush.
This spot sets up well for both teams to contribute to the total, and I believe backing the Over 6.5 at anything better than +100 provides value.
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04-14-24 06:08 PM |
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