Sunday, 04/14/2024 (523) DENVER vs. (524) MEMPHIS
Favoring: MEMPHIS against the spread.
Play On - Home underdogs of 10 or more points (MEMPHIS) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog
(42-13 since 1996.) (76.4%, +27.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1 +4.9 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (505) CHARLOTTE vs. (506) CLEVELAND
Favoring: CHARLOTTE against the spread.
Play Against - Home favorites of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games
(32-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4 +0.6 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (507) CHICAGO vs. (508) NEW YORK
Favoring: CHICAGO against the spread.
Play Against - Home favorites of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games
(32-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4 +0.6 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (511) MILWAUKEE vs. (512) ORLANDO
Favoring: ORLANDO against the spread.
Play On - Favorites (ORLANDO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a loss by 10 points or more
(85-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.1%, +43.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (11-4 +6.6 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (523) DENVER vs. (524) MEMPHIS
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more
(26-4 since 1996.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (509) WASHINGTON vs. (510) BOSTON
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record, in April games
(43-13 since 1996.) (76.8%, +28.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (10-2 +7.8 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (507) CHICAGO vs. (508) NEW YORK
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - All teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW YORK) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days
(37-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +26 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1 +0.9 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (507) CHICAGO vs. (508) NEW YORK
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW YORK) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days
(37-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +26 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1 +0.9 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (523) DENVER vs. (524) MEMPHIS
Favoring: DENVER on the first half line.
Play Against - Underdogs of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (MEMPHIS) - off 2 covers where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, second half of the season
(73-32 since 1996.) (69.5%, +37.8 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2 +1.8 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (503) TORONTO vs. (504) MIAMI
Favoring: MIAMI on the first half line.
Play Against - Underdogs of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (TORONTO) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days against opponent tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days
(77-35 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.7%, +38.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (16-11 +3.9 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (507) CHICAGO vs. (508) NEW YORK
Favoring: NEW YORK on the first half line.
Play Against - Underdogs of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (CHICAGO) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days against opponent tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days
(77-35 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.7%, +38.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (16-11 +3.9 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (519) DALLAS vs. (520) OKLAHOMA CITY
Favoring: OKLAHOMA CITY on the first half line.
Play Against - Underdogs of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (DALLAS) - tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days against opponent tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days
(77-35 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.7%, +38.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (16-11 +3.9 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (513) ATLANTA vs. (514) INDIANA
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is greater than 116 (INDIANA) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team, in April games
(28-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (87.5%, +23.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0 +4 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (501) BROOKLYN vs. (502) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 106 to 110.5 (BROOKLYN) - vs. division opponents, after 2 consecutive division games
(70-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.5%, +43.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3 -0.3 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (513) ATLANTA vs. (514) INDIANA
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is greater than 116 (INDIANA) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in April games
(51-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +32.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +2.9 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (507) CHICAGO vs. (508) NEW YORK
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 106 to 110.5 (CHICAGO) - off an upset win as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season
(41-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.4%, +27.8 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.9 units).

Before betting on the final day of the NBA regular season, it’s important to know what’s at stake. And the reality is that there’s still a lot left to figure out.



As of right now, we know that the Boston Celtics are the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and the Play-In Tournament will feature the Chicago Bulls hosting the Atlanta Hawks in the 9 vs. 10 game.



Outside of that, everything is up for grabs. The Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers are all in play for the No. 2 seed. But the Bucks will make it easy if they can beat the Orlando Magic, as that would clinch the second spot for Milwaukee. And seeds 5 through 8 are still interchangeable between the Magic, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat.



In the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets are all fighting for the top seed. But the Thunder hold the tiebreaker if all three teams win. In that scenario, Minnesota would be the second seed and Denver would be the third. But it should be noted that the Thunder are facing a Dallas Mavericks team that is resting its rotation pieces, and the Nuggets are facing a lowly Memphis Grizzlies team. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are facing a Phoenix Suns team that will be eager to win in order to avoid the Play-In Tournament. So, Minnesota is the only team that will be playing a competitive game. But it does look like Denver could rest its starters, with all of the team’s key pieces listed as questionable. We already know that the Mavericks will be facing the Los Angeles Clippers in the 4 vs. 5 matchup in the West.



But things aren’t quite as simple from there. If the New Orleans Pelicans beat the Los Angeles Lakers, Willie Green’s team will be the sixth seed in the Western Conference. But if the Pelicans lose and the Suns win, Phoenix will get the sixth spot. Either way, it’ll be either the Pelicans or Suns that will be hosting the 7 vs. 8 Play-In Tournament game. And the Play-In in the Western Conference will also feature the Lakers, Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors. Of the three, the Lakers have the most upward mobility on Sunday. With a win over New Orleans, Los Angeles would secure the eighth seed.

BOS/WAS: Wizards have absolutely nothing to play for. They're currently tanking for improved draft pick odds and are giving bench players main minutes to get them more reps for next season. Boston is already locked into #1 seed. If you play any props from this game I would target the Wizards bench players otherwise just fade completely.

- ATL/IND: Hawks are locked into the #10 spot in the East, nothing to play for. Pacers are trying to avoid the play in so they obviously need a win here. If they lose they will fall seeding for the playoffs. If you're playing this game expect Tyrese and Siakam to have good games here.

- HOU/LAC: both teams have nothing to play for. Houston season is over and LAC already locked into #4 seed.

TEAMS THAT HAVE NOTHING TO PLAY FOR/I WOULD PERSONALLY FADE
- Toronto
- Chicago
- Brooklyn
- Memphis
- Dallas
- Houston
- LA Clippers

TEAMS THAT WOULD BENEFIT FROM LOSING TO INCREASE DRAFT ODDS FOR NEXT SEASON
- Charollette
- Detroit
- Spurs
- Portland
- Wizards

TEAMS THAT ABSOLUTELY NEED A WIN
- Kings
- Orlando
- Indiana
- Miami
- Phoenix
- Lakers
- New Orleans
- Oklahoma City
- Denver
- Minnesota

TOP 3 GAME COMBOS I WOULD PERSONALLY PLAY PROPS FROM TOMORROW FOR THE LAST REGULAR SEASON GAME (have the lowest chances of selling you $)
- BUCKS/MAGIC
- LAKERS/PELICANS
- SUNS/WOLVES

INDIVIDUAL TEAMS I WOULD PERSONALLY PLAY PROPS FROM TOMORROW FOR THE LAST REGULAR SEASON GAME (have the lowest chances of selling you $)
- Kings
- Orlando
- Indiana
- Miami
- Phoenix
- Lakers
- New Orleans
- Oklahoma City
- Denver
- Minnesota

There are 8 double-digit favorites in the NBA on Sunday - tied for the most in a single day in the last 30 years.

The previous day was on Friday.

Double-digit favorites went 2-6 ATS on Friday.

There are currently 118 players listed as out, 5 as doubtful, and another 47 as questionable for the final day of the NBA season

Hawks injury report for tonight’s game at Indiana:

Clint Capela (rest): Out.
Saddiq Bey (left knee torn ACL): Out.
Jalen Johnson (right ankle sprain): Out.
Seth Lundy (left medial ankle impingement): Out.
Wesley Matthews (right hamstring tightness): Out.
Onyeka Okongwu (left big toe sprain): Out.

Favorites of 11 or more on the last day of the regular season are 46-3 SU last 30 years -- eight such games today.

Thunder as 19.5 pt favorites vs. the Mavs is biggest game 82 line in that span