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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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Los Angeles Angels (-112, 10.5) at Boston Red Sox
4:10 p.m. ET
Griffin Canning and Cooper Criswell are the expected starters for this matchup at Fenway Park on Saturday afternoon. Things are not going all that well for the Red Sox right now, as a whole lot of shoddy defense is being played behind the pitching staff. Ever since Trevor Story went out, the team has completely collapsed on the fielding side of things.
The offense struggled mightily yesterday against Reid Detmers, who is off to an unbelievable start, but they should have a better chance today against Canning. It will be Canning’s second straight start against the Sox, but this one will happen at Fenway, which is second to Coors Field annually in terms of park factor. It won’t be warm today, but a good breeze will be blowing out to right center field and that represents a major problem for Canning.
To this point in the season, Canning has allowed a 45.7% Hard Hit% and seven barrels (20%). Canning allowed a 9.8% Barrel% last season and a 42.4% Hard Hit%, so he’s working on his second straight season with major command problems. To make matters worse this season, he only has a 13% K% through two starts, including four strikeouts out of 23 batters faced against Boston last time out.
Canning has allowed nine runs on 12 hits with four homers and four walks against six strikeouts. The quality of his stuff simply is not there. Also, he has a 25.7% GB% on the year. Being a fly ball pitcher at Fenway Park is not a sound strategy.
He’s also been really inefficient with his pitches, as he has a 40.6% Ball% and has needed 96 and 91 pitches to get 15 and 14 outs, respectively. Now he’s at Fenway on a day with the wind blowing out and his Outs Recorded prop sits at 16.5 with the juice at -105. Canning went over 16.5 outs in 11 of his 22 starts last season, but remember that virtually all of them came in better pitching environments.
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04-13-24 06:44 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays (-110, 7.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
Logan Webb and Ryan Pepiot come together for one of the top pitching matchups on the card today. Webb has struggled a bit with his location while facing two very familiar foes in the Padres (2x) and Dodgers. Pepiot has had one good start (Rockies) and one bad start (Rangers) to open up the season.
Both pitchers are players in really smart organizations, so I know that both guys will be extremely well-prepared for this game, but Webb has a real lack of swing and miss right now. He opened the year with a 12.4% SwStr% against the Padres, but had a 4.2% SwStr% against the Dodgers and a 3.5% SwStr% against the Padres in his second start against them. He also had Zone% marks of 29.9% and 30.2% in his first two starts before posting a 51.8% Zone% in his last start.
In that last start, Webb only allowed two runs, but he surrendered 10 hits. Thus far, the Giants ace has allowed batting averages over .300 on each of his three primary pitches. Some of that is bad luck, but a lot of that is location. He’s allowed a 39.3% Hard Hit% overall and a 46.2% HH% in his last two starts. I will grant that he’s faced two lineups that have seen him a lot and the Rays really have not, but still. His location has been problematic.
Pepiot’s outstanding start against Colorado probably deserves an asterisk because it is the Rockies, but he also did it at Coors Field. He struck out 11 and only allowed three hits over six innings. In the game against Texas, Pepiot got a bit unlucky with batted balls and made his own problems with four walks. He was much sharper with some good adjustments in that second start.
Webb is allowing a lot of balls in play and they’re on the ground, which can be very volatile. Pepiot is working up in the zone with fastballs at 95+ and that’s a tough thing for a hitter to do damage with, especially at Tropicana Field, where the ball doesn’t carry very well.
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04-13-24 06:45 PM |
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