let's keep rolling into the weekend !
GL

Real Madrid and Real Sociedad kick off the soccer weekend in Spain on Friday night with a La Liga match at Reale Arena.

Los Blancos are in the driver's seat for another league title after winning El Clasico on Sunday to own an 11-point lead over Barcelona.

Meanwhile, La Real is eying European football next season by sitting in sixth, which would secure Spain’s bid to the Europa Conference League.

Can Sociedad end a successful campaign with a run in the final six matches of the season? La Real advanced to the round of 16 of the Champions League and the semifinal of the Copa del Rey.

Unfortunately, there will be no silverware for the club, but Imanol Alguacil’s side needs to close the year strong to earn a spot in Europe next season.

Alguacil hasn’t had a primary striker step up this season. However, he has gotten plenty of production from Mikel Oyarzabal and Takefusa Kubo.

The duo has combined for 16 league goals and five assists to play a direct role in just under half of Sociedad’s goals. They will need another big performance in this one.

After conceding the league title to their rival, Madrid have bounced back with a dominant campaign to regain the La Liga crown.

This could go down as one of manager Carlo Ancelotti’s best seasons, especially with the early injuries to the defense.

Ancelotti has been without Thibaut Courtois, Éder Militão and David Alaba for most of the campaign. He has been able to fill in the holes left by multiple squad players transitioning from midfield or other positions.

It helps when you have the front three of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo. The trio has chipped in 40 goals and 14 assists.

If you have followed our Friday La Liga articles, you know how profitable it is to bet on the home teams in these games, but I can’t look away from getting Real Madrid as an underdog.

Let’s do some price comparison. These are the same odds you could have gotten for Carlo Ancelotti’s team at Barcelona in October.

Los Blancos also closed as the favorite at Atlético Madrid in January and at -141 odds on the moneyline at Real Betis in December.

Yes, I understand they have the first leg of the Champions League semifinal at Bayern Munich on Tuesday. However, this hasn’t stopped Ancelotti from playing his main attacking trio in similar games in La Liga all year.

nice win to start the weekend
GL

OVERs are 188-129-18 (59%) this EPL season.

Best OVER teams this year


Chelsea 22-10
Sheffield 22-12
Newcastle 21-9-3
West Ham 21-12-1
Brentford 21-12-1
Bournemouth 20-11-3
Luton 20-9-5
Aston Villa 19-13-2
Wolves 19-13-2
Fulham 18-12-4
Crystal 18-13-3

Odds to win EPL at BetMGM

Man City -175
Arsenal +150
Liverpool +2800

Highest Ticket%: Arsenal 25.1%
Highest Handle%: Liverpool 29.0%

Liverpool face a must-win scenario to retain any realistic hope of staying in the Premier League title chase when they visit a West Ham side that is also combatting a late-season swoon.

Liverpool were stunned in a 2-0 defeat at Merseyside rivals Everton on Wednesday, a result that means they will need both Manchester City and Arsenal to slip up down the stretch to have any hope of contending for that elusive league crown.

West Ham were idle in midweek after one of their worst performances of the season, a 5-2 defeat to Crystal Palace last Sunday that was every bit as lopsided as the score indicated. They enter the weekend eighth, a point in front of a Chelsea side with two games in hand.

Liverpool earned a 3-1 victory in these sides' previous meeting back at Anfield in late September.

If the Hammers are going to rescue their hopes of qualifying for a European place, they'll have to do it the hard way.

West Ham have won only one of their previous seven league fixtures, and only have four wins in all competitions since 2024 began. And now they face Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City as part of their final four league fixtures.

The 2024 grind — influenced by key injuries at times and a congested schedule at others — has resulted in a sentiment around the club that manager David Moyes likely will move on after the season. And with the Scotsman's contract up at year's end, it's certainly fair for bettors to question whether West Ham's motivation level will be up to standard.

West Ham were without leading scorer Jarrod Bowen (back) in Sunday's loss to a Crystal Palace side that is sneakily dangerous now that all their attacking pieces are healthy.

But the full week of rest — the first such break the Hammers have had (that wasn't a FIFA international window) since late February — should allow the striker time to recover after he needed a pain-killing injection to play in the second leg of their Europa League quarterfinal.

Bowen's presence wasn't enough that night in a 1-1 draw against Bayer Leverkusen that allowed the Germans to advance with a 3-1 aggregate victory. But it was a strong home performance, showing that the Hammers still have enough quality to earn results against elite opposition if the focus and fitness is there.

Liverpool are in a similar position to West Ham in a couple of ways.

They are definitely in the final season under manager Jurgen Klopp, who announced months ago he will depart after the campaign is complete. And their recent swoon also began with their elimination from the Europa League to Italian side Atalanta, who earned a stunning 3-0 win in the first leg at Anfield en route to a 3-1 aggregate victory.

They now have less than 72 hours to flush their 2-0 defeat at Everton from memory and play a third successive away league match in seven days.

While the xG totals suggested Liverpool were unfortunate in their defeat to their city rivals, that was only partly true. Everton created the majority of the match's chances from the opening whistle until Jarrad Branthwaite's deserved goal in the 27th minute.

Liverpool only exerted control after falling behind — a pattern they've gotten away with often this season — and this time a combination of the woodwork and excellent goalkeeping by Jordan Pickford kept Everton in front for the duration.

After failing to score only once between August and March, the Reds have now been shut out in three of their last five matches in all competitions, despite creating more than seven expected goals across those three games.

They will hope the return of Cody Gakpo helps halt those struggles after he missed the Merseyside Derby due to his partner giving birth.

While Liverpool's failure to convert chances probably owes at least somewhat to the fatigue of this current stretch, the quick turnaround for Saturday's match may be a blessing in disguise.

The loss at Everton was hardly the most physically exerting fixture, with the Reds having three-quarters of the possession. And a longer layoff between games might allow more time for Liverpool to digest just how much the result had hurt their title chances.

Instead, I think they'll respond here in a good way, which makes this a spot to pay attention more to the season-long trends than the recent ones. And throughout the full season, the best Liverpool wager on their away travels in the league has been to parlay a yes bet on both teams to score with the total coming in under 4.5.

There's nothing that says late-season Premier League like 13th-placed Fulham hosting 14th-placed Crystal Palace in a London derby with four matches to play and both mathematically safe from relegation. European qualification is all but out of the picture, so these two sides aren't playing for much more than pride and possibly delivering their fans a couple moments of joy before the summer intermission.

Having said that, Oliver Glasner, who took over at Palace in February, will certainly want to use these last fixtures to get his players as comfortable with his game model as possible. And for both coaches it's always nice to finish on a high note and then build off a strong run-in heading into next year.

The last meeting between these two teams finished in a scoreless draw, but with Roy Hodgson on the touchline for the Eagles, not much can be gleaned from that contest heading into this one.

Despite losing Aleksandar Mitrovic — and nearly Joao Palhinha as well — in the summer, Marco Silva's Fulham avoided a case of second-season syndrome pretty comfortably. Finishing with 50-plus points in the top-half like last year might be unlikely, but it could be worse. The Cottagers have had a strange last two months as well, finding wins against Manchester United, Brighton, Tottenham and West Ham but then failing to beat either Sheffield United or Nottingham Forest.

Fulham are one of the better-coached teams in the league, currently ranked ninth in Field Tilt and hovering around the median in xThreat for and against. This starts with their solidity out of possession. The Cottagers line up in a base 4-3-3 shape, but that can morph into a lot of different forms depending on what the opponent does, and against Palace, that 4-3-3 will be asymmetric, looking like a 4-4-2 at times. Structure is just part of the battle though, and what really makes Fulham so sound defensively is how they block forward passing lanes and protect "jumps" — when a player goes to close down the ball, leaving space behind them. In possession, they're decent as well, but it's primarily been the defensive stability that they've hung their hat on this season.

Few teams are in better form than Crystal Palace right now. Glasner and co. have won their last three matches by an aggregate score of 8-2, including triumphs at Liverpool and at home against Newcastle. The Austrian's Premier League journey got off to a bit of a rocky start, but his players are executing his vision of football, and for those who watched his Eintracht Frankfurt teams, you'll see how quickly Palace have picked up that same style of play.

Everyone in a blue and red shirt is performing well at the moment, but Michael Olise and especially Eberechi Eze both deserve their own mentions, providing the creative spark in the half-spaces that's driving this team in possession. Jean-Philippe Mateta has been the biggest beneficiary of their play, netting back-to-back braces and leading the Eagles in goals since Glasner took over with eight.

The Eagles defend in a 5-2-3 block, and then push the wingbacks forward while narrowing the wingers to form a 3-2-5 in possession. The front three in this one is likely to be Mateta flanked by Olise and Eze, but Jordan Ayew is a possibility to start in place of Olise as well. The double pivot of Adam Wharton and Will Hughes has been stellar, with the former taking real command of the midfield recently despite being just 20-years-old and only joining the team in January. The way he understands tempo and angles is just remarkable, and combined with the movement of the forwards in front of him, that becomes a real problem for opponents.

Fulham moneyline opened at +100 and is now sitting between +105 and +110, which is still too high. This type of game plays into Glasner's tactics perfectly, as his team will be able to sit off a bit away from home, focus on defensively rigidity and exploit turnovers in transition.

The Eagles might not win on the road, but they will continue their unbeaten run.

Pick: Crystal Palace +0.5 (-130)

Crystal Palace are in a good spot right now, having won three games in a row. They haven’t won four Premier League fixtures in succession for the best part of four years, but I think they will end that wait against Fulham.

I get regular updates on how things are going with Palace as my brother is a season ticket holder there and attends every home match. For the first time in a long while, there is a real feel-good factor around the club, with the team playing some really entertaining soccer.

In midweek against Newcastle, they were much the better side, ending up 2-0 victors, but it really should have been a win by a much wider margin. They even had the luxury of resting one of their star men, Michael Olise, and taking the sublime Eberechi Eze off with 10 minutes remaining.

Moreover, they have a striker in Jean-Philippe Mateta who is bursting with confidence and scoring goals. The 26-year-old got both goals against Newcastle, his eighth goal in nine appearances under Oliver Glasner, closing in on the combined total of 11 goals he scored in 79 games across the management spells of Roy Hodgson and Patrick Vieira.

These two sides may not be separated by much geographically, but they certainly have contrasting opinions of the season right now. The Fulham fans will want the season over, they’ve done ok but let’s break for summer and rebuild. In contrast Palace fans can’t get enough of what they are seeing.

I was so tempted to put the Eagles up on the moneyline against a Fulham side stumbling their way to the end of the season. Instead, I am playing it a little safe and taking the visitors tie-no-bet at +150.

The Cottagers have lost three of the last four games, and there is good symmetry in their fixtures to allow us a form comparison to Palace. The last three games have seen a 2-0 win against West Ham and defeats to Liverpool and Newcastle by 3-1 and 1-0 scorelines. Glasner’s men have faced the same teams in their last three fixtures—impressively winning them all: 1-0 at Liverpool with 2-0 and 5-2 home wins against Newcastle and West Ham.

It seems the home side are more likely to turn up wearing espadrilles rather than soccer boots and Crystal Palace can take advantage. With nothing at stake in this match it appeals to keep the draw onside so in this case if it does end all square, we get our stake back.

EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace Tie No Bet at +150.

Sheffield United could be officially relegated from the Premier League on Saturday if the Blades lose at Newcastle. The Blades are 10 points back from 17th-place Nottingham Forest with four matches to play. Barring another points deduction, they're going to need to win all four, and get help, to avoid a return to the second tier of English football.

Meanwhile, Newcastle is in the heart of the race for the Europa League and a top-six finish. The Magpies are three points behind Manchester United with five matches to play and still face off against them at Old Trafford in the penultimate match of their season.

Sheffield took multiple leads against Manchester United in the midweek and have shown renewed attacking intent through Gustavo Hamer and Ben Brereton Diaz, but the defense is nearing historical levels of bad and could concede 100 goals this year.

Newcastle was blanked in the midweek against Crystal Palace, but that was just a poor 90 minutes in the midst of what has otherwise been a clear top four attacking side when fit this season. The Magpies have had Alexander Isak, Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon all fit for this recent stretch of matches, and all three have produced at a clip of 0.52 NPxG + xA per 90 or better this season. Isak and Barnes are all the way up at 0.77, which is clear top-six level attacking production this season.

The recent home matches have been especially encouraging for Newcastle. They thrashed Wolves 3-0 at home with 2.1 xG, then followed it up by scoring four on West Ham, tying Everton 1-1 (2.3 xG) and beating Spurs 4-0. Newcastle isn't nearly as good defensively as it was last year, but the Magpies remain excellent at playing with the lead. Eddie Howe's sides have been consistently good front runners for multiple years because of their ability to seek and exploit 1-on-1s in space.

The Magpies rank second in the Premier League in final third to box entry conversion rate and continue to be top five in xG per 90 and second in big scoring chances created. Sheffield United can't just settle for or play for a draw here, so this match should be plenty open, which plays into Newcastle's strengths as an attack.

Sheffield United is clearly the worst team in the league this season, even if Luton's underlying defensive numbers are almost as bad. Sheffield United is last in shot differential, box entry differential, field tilt and are also a full 27 goals apart from the next worst team by goal differential.

Not many expected the Blades to remain in the Premier League, but the market entering the season didn't expect them to be the worst overall team. The goalkeeper issues and the lack of defending have persisted throughout, but the attack has shown some real promise in the past month.

If you sort the Premier League data by just the past 10 weeks, Sheffield United rises to 14th in xG created at 1.28 per match.

Newcastle is favored by a full two goals once home-field advantage is taken into account, so there's no value for me in the side. But given that Sheffield United's attack has been marginally better, Newcastle is an excellent front runner with incentive to run up the score and Sheffield United has to play to win from the opening kick, this total is still a bit low at just 3.5.

Wolves have zero wins in their last seven matches in all competitions following a midweek defeat to Bournemouth and have fallen out of the top half of the Premier League. Gary O'Neil's side has drifted to 12th and Saturday's home match against Luton Town is their best chance at a win based on pre-match odds in their final four games. Wolves don't have a ton to play for in this final stretch, and they have been downgraded by the market as a result.

Luton Town have one win in the league since February began and they're now in desperation mode as they look to surpass Nottingham Forest and leap out of the relegation places with a win on Saturday. Luton have four matches remaining — Wolves (A), Everton (H), West Ham (A) and Fulham (H) — to conclude the season. They'll likely need at least four points to have any real chance of staying up.

It's common to see the market overrate the poor teams at the bottom of the league table as they have perceived extra motivation to fight off relegation. I usually tend to play against this market overreaction and thus Wolves is the only bettable side in this matchup.

The injury situation at Wolves left them struggling to piece together an attack in the last month. They remain without top creator and dribbler Pedro Neto, but Wolves now have both Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha fit to start for this match after Cunha came off the bench in Wolves' 1-0 defeat to Bournemouth in the midweek and Hee-chan started.

The underlying numbers for Wolves never suggested they were actually a top half team, despite their excellent patch of form in February and March that vaulted them as high as eighth in the PL table. Wolves should have all three of their best midfielders fit for this match with Jean-Ricner Bellegarde back in training this week. He may only be fit enough to play off the bench, but Wolves also have their first choice midfielders Mario Lemina and Joao Gomes fit enough to start on Wednesday.

Despite the game to game fluctuation, their underlying numbers have been generally pretty consistent across the aggregates this year. If you take only 11-on-11 minutes this year, Wolves had a -0.31 xG difference per 90 minutes from the start of the season through Christmas. Since 2024 began, their numbers are roughly the same at -0.35 xG difference per 90. It's below average performances overall, but still a clear tier above their Saturday opponent.

Luton Town's defense is allowing 2.35 xGA per 90 minutes in the second half of the season. It's not all that much better than the first half of the year, when they benefitted from poor finishing variance by their opponents and some excellent goalkeeping to stay competitive in matches. The dam has broken for Rob Edwards' defense in the second half and the goals have continued to pour in against Luton.

West Ham have the third-worst defense by goals allowed per match in the second half of the year at 2.16. Luton and Sheffield United are an entire tier worse at 2.47 and 2.74, respectively. The only reason Luton is above Sheffield United is their better goalkeeper because Luton actually concede the greater quantity and quality of chances to opponents.

Given the injury situation in the Luton defense, there's no real way for Edwards to schematically plan around this. Luton still excel in attacking set pieces. They're an effective crossing team and have scored plenty of goals. It's not all bad for Luton Town in their attempt to pull off this upset against Wolves and against the rest of the Premier League this season, but Luton Town are more than half goal worse by both xG and actual goal difference than Wolves.

Luton will be a popular underdog pick given Wolves poor form entering this match and the perceived significant motivation edge for Luton Town as they attempt to fight off relegation. Wolves should be closer to -150 and you're able to buy them at a discount because of the must win tax placed on Luton here.

Manchester United looks to make it two wins in a row when it hosts Burnley at Old Trafford.

It's never a dull moment in Manchester, as United was down, 2-1, in the second half against Sheffield United on Wednesday before roaring back to win, 4-2.

Erik ten Hag is not only battling for his job but also for sixth place in the table, as Manchester United owns a three-point lead over Newcastle. A win here is vital if it wants to maintain its Europa League spot.

With its win over Sheffield United last weekend, Burnley is still very much alive to avoid relegation, as it sits only three points behind Nottingham Forest. It's been tough times for Vincent Kompany, but his team's underlying performances may give it value.

Manchester United's performance against Sheffield United was an improvement, but there are still some glaring fatal flaws that even a team like Burnley can exploit.

United tried at various times to build out of the back against Sheffield United, which in large parts of the match, were playing very passively.

However, the first goal the Red Devils conceded came when the Blades decided to press them from a goal-kick situation, leading to an errant pass by Andre Onana and an easy goal.

The problem that exists for Manchester United right now is it has to do one of two things because of injuries.

It has to play out of the back and try to control matches with a Harry Maguire and Casemiro center-back pairing, which is not its strong suit.

It has to play the ball long and get into up-and-down transitional matches.

Neither are great options at the moment. United often gets caught in between two different tactical approaches, which leads to mistakes and easy chances for the opponent.

The out-of-possession pressing structure is completely flawed as well and still hasn't changed in months.

The Red Devils pressing with only their attackers and not having their fullbacks or center backs come to aid in the press allows teams that can build up to play right through them and make runs at their back line.

In 2024, Manchester United has kept one clean sheet in the Premier League. It's held only two opponents under one expected goal, and it's conceding 2.27 xG per 90 minutes.

So, yes — even Burnley can create chances against United.

The performances for Burnley have improved toward the end of the season, and it's because Kompany has become more versatile in his tactical approach.

During the first part of the season, Burnley was still playing its possession-dominant, build-out-of-the-back, high-pressing style from the Championship, which wasn't working against the elite competition in the Premier League.

So, he switched his team to a 4-4-2 and had it play more passively and in a better defensive structure. But that also didn't work because the team was set up to play a certain way coming into the season.

Now that Burnley has spent some time playing in a 4-4-2 while still being a team that builds out of the back team in certain matches, it's starting to play much better.

In 11-on-11 situations since the beginning of March (Burnley has had two matches ruined by red cards), the Clarets own an xGD per 90 minutes mark of just -0.15. That's better than teams like Aston Villa, Everton and even Manchester United, which has a -0.92 xGD over that same period.

One of the reasons why they've improved is because of a change at goalkeeper. James Trafford is more of a ball-playing goalkeeper and was not bought in to be an elite shot-stopper.

Arijanet Muric was Burnley's No. 1 in the Championship last year, but management chose Trafford to begin the season.

However, Muric has played the last six matches and has been significantly better, which is why Burnley has seen an uptick in its performances.

Manchester United hasn't found a way to control matches against weaker opponents for a full 90 minutes.

It controlled things at times against Coventry and Sheffield, but the minute those weaker teams start to be more aggressive out of possession and press United, it either leads to mistakes in build or creates a back-and-forth transitional match, which always gives the underdog a chance at an upset because United has been so bad defending in transition.

With all of the injuries Manchester United is dealing with and how poor it's been against bottom-of-the-barrel teams recently, Burnley is absolutely live for an upset here — especially considering its ability to press out of possession and build out of the back against United's flawed press.

Manchester United vs. Burnley
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET

Can Burnley pull off the great escape and stay up? Possibly, but they will need results to go their way elsewhere. I would rather bet them match by match, which is what I am doing here.

I sensed a switch in the Clarets a few weeks ago and count myself unlucky not to have cashed more tickets than I have on them. Late, late goals and unforced, crazy errors have cost them, but it clicked last time out when they thumped Sheffield United 4-1 on the road.

Vincent Kompany has made some bold decisions and implemented some basic changes, which have had a positive impact. This is certainly enough to give them a big chance here against a Manchester United side that simply cannot defend.

The Red Devils have one win from their last seven games in all competitions, a very hard-fought 4-2 win over Sheffield United, who twice took the lead on Wednesday night. They have conceded 17 goals across those seven fixtures, which is absolutely shocking, with only the Blades allowing more than their average of 17.7 shots per game over the whole season.

Burnley’s improvement has seen them lose just one of their last seven league games, scoring 12 goals in the process. They fight for their lives at the bottom of the table. For United, I wonder how much they will want this clash.

The top four is out of reach, and they look likely to claim a lesser-ranked European qualifying position. At the end of the season, they also have an FA Cup final against their city neighbors to look forward to.

Then there is manager Erik ten Hag. To me, he looks like a man who knows he is on borrowed time, likely to get the sack in the summer regardless of what he does over the remaining games.

There is not enough upside for me to bet Burnley on the Moneyline, but I think backing them on a +1 Asian Handicap at +105 is a great play. This is mainly because I can’t see the visitors failing to score against a Manchester United side that can’t keep a clean sheet.

If Burnley score one, then United must score three for us to lose. A one-goal defeat gets us a full refund on our stake.

EPL Best Bet: Burnley +1 Asian Handicap at +105.

In-demand Bologna boss Thiago Motta revealed he told his players he’s ‘proud’ to coach them and insists he’s happy at the Stadio Dall’Ara after masterminding an eye-catching 3-1 success over Roma at the Stadio Olimpico on Monday. The victory has brought Bologna to within touching distance of a first-ever qualification to the Champions League.

Motta said, “I told the guys I am proud to be their coach. They came on a difficult pitch and put in a high-level performance, both in attack and defence. This makes me really satisfied. The lads help each other, this is a key victory that boosts our confidence. They have fun together, and tonight they proved they’re on the right track. I am proud to coach them.”

Despite an eight-point cushion over sixth-placed Atalanta, I’m not expecting Motta and his squad to relent in their quest for a top-five finish. Bologna return to their fortress Stadio Dall’Ara base on Sunday and I’m again happy to support the Rossoblu here considering the hosts have tabled 12 triumphs in 15 when excluding the current top-two.

Remarkably, Bologna have shipped just five goals in that aforementioned 15-game sample on home soil, racking up 11 clean sheets in the process. I’ll be looking to back Bologna to win alongside Under 4.5 Goals when Udinese arrive, knowing these two teams have seen five or more goals scored in only four of their combined Serie A contests this season.

Udinese are only outside of the drop-zone on goal difference and arrive off the back of three defeats in their last four, including a crucial six-pointer against Hellas Verona last time out. The Zebrette have scored only 12 away goals all season, whilst only rock-bottom Salernitana have conjured up a lower Expected Goals (xG) output across the last 12 tussles.

Fiorentina chief Vincenzo Italiano admitted his Viola side exited the Coppa Italia at the semi-final stage in midweek with ‘big regrets’ over a costly red card and wasted first leg opportunities against Atalanta. Despite leading 1-0 from the first fixture in Florence, Fiorentina were eventually eliminated 4-2 on aggregate in Bergamo on Wednesday night.

Nikola Milenkovic’s sending off tipped the balance against La Viola to deny Italiano’s outfit a second successive final appearance. But Fiorentina are buoyed by the chance to reach another cup final with a Europa Conference semi-final showdown scheduled against Club Brugge from Thursday and the club have been very clear on their quest to progress.

But first, Fiorentina face Sassuolo on Sunday night in regular Serie A action. Previously, Italiano has shown a preference to rest and rotate his troops before and after important cup clashes and with both semi-finals the priority, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the home side field a weakened side for the league encounter with Sassuolo.

I’m therefore happy to oppose Fiorentina at the prices. Sassuolo +0.50 Asian Handicap appeals – the Neroverdi are in desperate need of a positive result, starting the weekend two points adrift of safety with only five fixtures to play. The visitors have won just three Serie A matches since September, although one of those victories was against La Viola.

With Fiorentina’s attention elsewhere, their own league form has been far from formidable since the start of 2024 – the hosts have tabled only three triumphs in 14 Serie A outings this calendar year and they therefore look a little too highly-rated for this match-up considering their focus will be on Thursday night’s continental clash.

Like the reverse fixture, this game has somehow made its way to national television at 12:30 p.m. ET on a Saturday. Yes, nothing represents the spirit of English soccer quite like Brentford and Everton launching long balls back and forth, but is this really how Premier League and TV executives want to be marketing the league?

In all seriousness, these are two teams that, despite wildly different personalities manning the touchline, have very similar styles of play. Somehow, an eccentric Dane and a lad from Northampton that played professionally in 1990s England happened upon comparable conceptions of the way this sport should be approached.

As seen in September, when Everton prevailed 3-1 at the Gtech Community Stadium, that approach relies on commitment to defensive organization and being opportunistic in transitions and dead ball situations.

Everton are coming off one of their biggest results in the last decade — a 2-0 win at Goodison Park against Liverpool. Having not won at home against their bitter rivals since David Moyes was manager, the Toffees decided to end that run in Jurgen Klopp's final Merseyside Derby and ruin Liverpool's title hopes. On top of that, Everton are now virtually safe from relegation, eight points above Luton Town in 18th with just four matches to go.

Sean Dyche has one of the most recognizable, distinct and traditional game models in the Premier League. It's modernized, but a compact mid/deep block, height across the pitch, a powerful target man up top and a reliance on set pieces are all traits of a tactical setup that's gone out of fashion in the last decade. When a Dyche team is at its best, you see the midfielders and forwards swarming opponents, snapping into challenges and launching counter-attacks through direct balls into the channels immediately following turnovers. With a 4-5-1 midblock, midfielders like Amadou Onana and Dominic Calvert-Lewin as a striker, the hallmarks of a typical Dyche team are easily found in this Everton squad. While terms like "possession," "control" and "territorial dominance" aren't really in Dyche's vocabulary, he still makes things work.

Like their opponents in this match, Brentford also put themselves on the verge of extending their stay in England's top flight with their last result — a 5-1 thrashing of Luton Town last Saturday. It's been Brentford's worst season in this Premier League stint, but they never looked like going down, and did so despite injuries, Ivan Toney being suspended for half the year and selling David Raya in the summer. A win in this one confirms their safety, but being 10 points above the relegation zone with four matches to play is a position that is really difficult to screw up.

And, as mentioned previously, they play a pretty similar brand of soccer to Everton. Thomas Frank prefers a back five in settled defense, and is also willing to take risks in the "first phase" at both ends, as he has his side press high from goal kicks and isn't opposed to playing out from the back when it's feasible. With Toney only appearing in 13 league matches this campaign, the Bees have missed having that outlet up the pitch that can take the ball down, hold it up and find runners, but they've still averaged 1.53 goals per match, which is equal to their attacking output last season. The defense has regressed a bit, going from 1.31 xG allowed per match to 1.46 this season. Generally, Brentford are still a very similar proposition to what they've been the last two years, but they just haven't gotten the same results.

After an emotionally and physically demanding affair and only two days off before this contest, it's going to be difficult for Everton to put in a performance anywhere near what they produced on Wednesday. Brentford, on the other hand, have had a full week off and will be bolstered by the likely return of Ivan Toney. These two sides cancel each other out pretty much everywhere else, so this is pretty much a pick 'em. Given the factors mentioned, there's no reason for home-field advantage to lead to Everton being priced at +140 and Brentford +195 — a difference in implied probability of nearly eight percentage points.

The Bees have been undervalued in betting markets for a while, and this is yet another example.

the best Liverpool wager on their away travels in the league has been to parlay a yes bet on both teams to score with the total coming in under 4.5. WINNER

Pick: Crystal Palace +0.5 (-130) WINNER

EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace Tie No Bet at +150. NO BET

Sheffield United has to play to win from the opening kick, this total is still a bit low at just 3.5. WINNER

Luton will be a popular underdog pick given Wolves poor form entering this match and the perceived significant motivation edge for Luton Town as they attempt to fight off relegation. Wolves should be closer to -150 and you're able to buy them at a discount because of the must win tax placed on Luton here. WINNER

EPL Best Bet: Burnley +1 Asian Handicap at +105. WINNER

Enjoy your day !

Tottenham and Arsenal will clash on Sunday morning in an important iteration of the North London Derby. The two clubs have varying goals in the league, with Arsenal aiming for a title, and both will be seeking three valuable points.

Both Richarlison and Pedro Porro trained this week for Tottenham, and both are likely to start at striker and right back on Sunday. Spurs will be without key left back Destiny Udogie for the remainder of the season, which will make defending Arsenal star right winger Bukayo Saka a difficult task in this matchup.

Tottenham is one of the few teams in the Premier League that was able to play through Arsenal’s out of possession defensive strength and create multiple big scoring chances. Spurs produced 1.5 xG in the first meeting at Arsenal, and they are one of five PL teams to create at least 1.1 non-penalty expected goals against this historically elite Arsenal defense this year.

The return of Richarlison moves Heung-min Son into his more preferred left winger position. Richarlison hasn’t played a ton of minutes this year (15.8 90s), but the Brazilian has averaged 3.8 shots per 90 and 0.58 NPxG per 90 minutes. Timo Werner and Brennan Johnson have been fine production wise in wide areas around Son when Son has played centrally, but the numbers clearly suggest Tottenham will have its best front four fit for this match Sunday, as Dejan Kulusevski is likely to start in the ride forward position to join Son, Richarlison and James Maddison.

It’s a true matchup of clashing styles as Arsenal look to prioritize match control at all costs, while Ange Postecoglou and Spurs would prefer to play a more end-to-end match. There are questions about how much Spurs will be able to use Ben Davies as an additional attacking outlet as a stand-in for Udogie. He’s not nearly as aggressive in and out of possession and might not invert in the same way that Udogie often did for Spurs.

Spurs have yet again outperformed their underlying xG differential (+16 actual vs. +2.8 expected). That’s become a staple for them in most seasons due to their plus shot-stopping and elite finishing from Son, formerly Harry Kane and now James Maddison.

Arsenal looked amazing Tuesday against Chelsea and there is a reason why.

Thomas Parety was inserted back into the starting XI after missing pretty much the entire season and you already see the massive difference he makes. Not only is he an elite ball stopper, but he allows Arsenal when they are in possession to invert Takehiro Tomiyasu alongside him, which allows Declan Rice to play in the number eight role, as opposed to him playing in the six role and having to be the main cover when defending in transition. Rice is so good that he can play in the number eight role and do it to an elite level, as right off the bat he assisted the first goal to Leandro Trossard.

Another thing Arsenal did, and it was partly game-state dependent, but it allowed Chelsea to have a majority of the ball and controlled the match with its out of possession structure. Chelsea created one huge chance right before the half that should have gone in, but other than that, they created next to nothing while holding for the remainder of the match.

The Gunners also showed against Chelsea who was playing a high line, that they can send balls over the top and make runs successfully off the opponents' back line, which is something they are going to have to be able to do to beat Tottenham.

If we go back to the first North London Derby, Arsenal completely dominated Tottenham’s build up in the first half, as Spurs could not string two or three passes together. For the match, Arsenal forced 11 high turnovers and had a PPDA of 7.0.

Spurs manager Ange Postecoglou could opt for pace in wide areas and play on the break more with Son up top and Timo Werner and Brennan Johnson on the wings. However, his most optimal lineup could pose a real threat to a historically elite Arsenal defense with Richarlison’s return at striker to boost the Spurs attack. The Gunners need all three points, as a draw isn’t an option in this title race. Arsenal has made major improvements in transition attacking moments this season and it’s highly likely that Spurs will present chances for Arsenal on the break throughout the match.

Arsenal is the clearly better team and has outperformed Spurs by roughly a goal per match this year. Once you factor in home field advantage, the line should be closer to -115 on the three-way moneyline for Arsenal.

If there's an example of how the Premier League has changed in the last few years — or how money has changed the Premier League — it's these two south-coast clubs' managerial histories in the top flight.

Bournemouth first got promoted in 2015 under Eddie Howe, who kept them in the first division for five years. After the Cherries went back down, it was Scott Parker who got them out of the Championship, and after Parker was sacked at the beginning of last season, it was Gary O'Neil who kept them above the relegation zone. However, last June, Bournemouth parted ways with O'Neil and appointed the Spaniard Andoni Iraola, the first manager in club history to not be from the British Isles.

For Brighton, it was an Irishman, Chris Hughton, who got the club back into the top level of the English pyramid in 2017 after over 30 years away. Then Graham Potter made them a consistent midtable side, but after he departed for the Chelsea vacancy midway through last season, the Seagulls' board turned to Roberto De Zerbi, who was born just south of the Alps in Italy.

There's never been a greater foreign influence on the touchlines of the Premier League, a development that emerged the same time as the league signed off on massive TV deals. Clubs like Brighton and Bournemouth, who aren't usually qualifying for European competitions, being able to bring in some of the brightest coaching talents from other high-reputation countries is a testament to that.

While on the topic of nationality and how that relates to Premier League managers, it should be noted Iraola is far from the typical Spanish coach. Compared to his Basque counterparts — Pep Guardiola, Mikel Arteta and Unai Emery — in England, there is a distinct difference in style. You'd think Iraola would've player or coached in Germany at some point, given how much he prioritizes the pressing and counter-pressing aspects of his game model, but that is not the case.

Bournemouth have more or less been vindicated when it came to the aforementioned decision of replacing O'Neil with Iraola over the summer, as they currently sit in 10th and are coming off a 1-0 win at Molineux against O'Neil's Wolves side. It seems unlikely the Cherries can progress any further up the table in the coming years under Iraola, as their record against the top-half has been among the worst in the league. As I've described before, that's because their success is so predicated on forcing opponents into mistakes, and at a certain point, they just don't have the player quality and athleticism to do so. If they can evolve their in-possession principles in settled play to not be so direct and frenetic, they can raise their ceiling, but for now this is a transition- and high turnover-reliant team.

After a strong start to life in England — finishing sixth and earning Brighton a place in a continental competition for the first time in club history last season — the second time around has not gone quite as well for De Zerbi. This has less to do with the sales of Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo in the summer, and more due to injuries and the rest of the league beginning to understand how to play against Brighton. The Italian's first-choice wing pairing of Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March has been sidelined for much of the year, and other key cogs in the machine like Evan Ferguson, Billy Gilmour and Pervis Estupinan have missed extended periods of time. Additionally, the press-baiting, tempo-fluctuating in-possession approach De Zerbi champions is no longer as foreign to opponents as it was 12 months ago.

Regardless, Brighton are still one of the better teams in the league, even on a poor run of form, which was capped off by a 4-0 loss at home against Manchester City on Thursday. In terms of attacking play, the Seagulls are up there with City, Aston Villa and Tottenham, with every player on the pitch demonstrating a superb understanding of angles and space, and there's perhaps no side better than Brighton when it comes to the intersection of technical ability and tactics. Defensively, it's a bit of a different story. That's especially true in transitions, as Brighton's rest defense, combined with the ways and times they lose the ball, offers up too much opportunity for opponents to hit them on the break. De Zerbi has also thrown some strange man-marking responsibilities into both his press and defensive block at points, which have also been easily exploitable.

This contest should play out very similarly to Brighton's 3-1 win over Bournemouth at the Amex in September. The game dynamics are favorable to both outfits, with the Seagulls getting an opponent that dares to press their intricate buildup, and the Cherries facing a side that believes they can play through their high press. Like the first encounter, this is going to lead to somewhat of a stalemate.

While both sides have the quality to win, the value on betting a draw at just under +300 at a 25% implied probability

The Premier League title will be on the line Sunday when Manchester City travels to the City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest.

Nottingham Forest is deep in the relegation fight after losing 2-0 at Everton over the weekend. They have been hit with a four-point deduction for breaching FFP rules, which could get reduced on appeal. In any case, they have a massive opportunity Sunday to not only get out of the relegation zone, but to cause a major upheaval in the title race.

Manchester City breezed past Brighton 4-0 on Thursday to hold serve in the title race. The fixtures are piling up for Manchester City, which is now going to play its eighth match in 25 days. They also may be without star striker Erling Haaland, so this will be a tricky spot for Pep Guardiola's men.

Something that both of those teams did was not stay passive in their low defensive blocks, but instead press City aggressively from their defensive shape and try to force them into some turnovers and look to transition from deep. Nottingham Forest under Nuno Espírito Santo has been more willing to press from its defensive block. Their PPDA under him is 15.2, compared to under Steve Cooper, where they were the most passive team in the league at 18.8.

They are really good in their low defensive block too. The Trees are second in the Premier League in final third to box entry conversion rate, allowing their opponents inside their penalty area at only a 25.6% rate once they enter the final third. Their defense is also only allowing 1.14 xG per 90 minutes at the City Ground this season.

Nottingham Forest is about as direct as it gets in the Premier League and also has the pace with Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga, etc. to give City a lot of problems. Since Espírito Santo has taken over, the offensive performances have improved, as they are averaging 1.45 xG per 90 minutes.

Nottingham Forest has also played much better at the City Ground this season than on road, as it has a +2.6 xGD at home and has only been beaten by more than one goal at home once in a match against Tottenham in which the xG battle was dead even.

The context of recent results is really important when discussing Manchester City. Saying they are going to "run away with the title" after beating Brighton 4-0 is a very ill-informed statement. Yes, they looked great, but they were also facing an opponent that went with a suicidal approach out of possession that any decent build-up team would exploit.

Brighton decided to mark Manchester City man-to-man across the pitch, but they really weren't that aggressive with it, so City was able to use different rotations and some great ball carrying to completely rip apart the entire system on its way to scoring four goals off only 1.4 expected goals. Five days before that, they played a Chelsea team that played a very active 4-2-4 low block that gave them all sorts of problems — and even though they ended up winning the match 1-0, before the 83rd-minute winner from Bernardo Silva, City had only created 0.52 expected goals.

What the 4-2-4 low block did was allowed Chelsea to press City once it entered the final third, and if they were able to win the ball, it allowed them to have 4 vs. 3 break in transition, which is something Manchester City has really struggled with recently.

Nottingham Forest is about a low of a block as it gets in the Premier League, and it is not going to approach this match with the same plan out of possession that Brighton did. So, we now have to start questioning whether Manchester City is not only able to effectively break down good low blocks, but does it still have problems defending in transition against the pace that Nottingham Forest has.

It also looks like Haaland is going to miss this match, which is a pretty massive loss when you are trying to break down a low block. Haaland is averaging 0.97 xG per 90 minutes, while his replacement Julián Álvarez is only at a 0.42 xG per 90 minutes.

What Saturday against Chelsea and against Real Madrid in the Champions League showed is Manchester City is kind of struggling to break down low blocks. It failed to create over one expected goal against Chelsea, and although they created some chances against Real Madrid, for large stretches against they were struggling to find space.

This match is not going to be like the Brighton match on Thursday. Nottingham Forest is going to sit deep and come with the same game plan as Chelsea had in the FA Cup semifinals and force City to break it down — and City is most likely not going to have Haaland.