The Bulls came back from a 19-point deficit to beat the Toronto Raptors in their first Play-In Tournament game, while the Heat got stomped at home by the Atlanta Hawks. So, it’s hard to argue that Chicago doesn’t have the momentum here. We also know that this means a lot to the Bulls, who signed Play-In specialist Patrick Beverley after the trade deadline. Beverley became a popular Twitter meme after his tear-filled celebration of escaping the Western Conference Play-In Tournament last year. Will he have another moment like that on Friday? He just might.

This season, Chicago is 3-0 both straight-up and against the spread when facing Miami, and the Heat happen to be just 10-21 ATS when playing as home favorites this year. Miami also has the worst ATS record of any team in basketball this season, as the Heat are just 30-51-2 ATS. On top of that, the Bulls are 14-5 ATS when coming off an upset win this year.

Not only do the Bulls have the momentum and trends on their side, but the style of play here should also favor them. While Miami is known as a defensive-minded team, Chicago is the better group on that end of the floor. In fact, it wasn’t even close towards the end of the season. Over the last 15 games, Chicago has the third-best defensive rating in the NBA. But in that same span, Miami is just 20th. The Heat really started to slip defensively down the stretch, and that’s hard to ignore here.

The Bulls also happen to have the more reliable late-game scoring options in this matchup. We saw how important it is to have a guy like Zach LaVine in Chicago’s first Play-In game. He completely took over in the Bulls’ win over the Raptors, as he scored 39 points in a game where his team scored only 109. With LaVine and DeMar DeRozan in the fold, Chicago has two players that can create offense for themselves in isolation. The only player that can really be counted on to do that for Miami is Jimmy Butler. But Butler might be gassed by the end of this game after having to chase LaVine and DeRozan around on the defensive end. And Tyler Herro is going to have a hard time creating offense against Chicago’s duo of Beverley and Alex Caruso, who are both menacing at the point of attack.

Unless somebody on Miami gets uncharacteristically hot, this just should be a game that goes down to the wire. With that said, the Bulls look like they’re getting too many points in this spot. They have a legitimate shot to win this one outright.

Bulls at Heat Total Analysis
The Bulls and Heat went Under the total in each of the last two games they played against one another, but both of those games would have gone Over the mark set for this one. While these are two teams that really prioritize getting stops, this is an incredibly low number and it’s going to be hard for them not to hit the Over. We expected a low-scoring game between the Bulls and Raptors, and that one was a complete grind-it-out affair. But the two still ended up scoring 214 points.

Chicago should also be able to find a way to score against a Miami defense that continues to struggle. The Hawks got whatever they wanted against the Heat last game, so there will be opportunities for the Bulls to find open looks. There should also be decent spacing for Chicago with Nikola Vucevic’s shooting ability pulling Bam Adebayo away from the basket. And if the Bulls are scoring, the Heat will have no choice but to speed things up a bit.

Rudy Gobert is likely to return from his one-game suspension and take part in Friday night’s Play-In game against the Thunder. Gobert is one of the best interior defenders in basketball, so one would think his return would be a good thing for Minnesota. But Karl-Anthony Towns was tremendous playing center for the Timberwolves last game, and the two of them might have trouble defending the Thunder’s five-out offense. The fit between the two bigs has been awkward all season long, and that’s a generous way of putting it. Minnesota is at its best with Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels playing alongside one of those two centers. But we won’t be seeing any of that on Friday, as McDaniels broke his hand punching a wall last weekend. And Minnesota pays Gobert and Towns too much money to be sitting either of them late in games.

With the Timberwolves likely stuck playing the two big men together, the Thunder are going to try and spread them out and launch a lot of triples. And if guys like Luguentz Dort and Jalen Williams are comfortably hitting their open shots, then Minnesota is going to be in all sorts of trouble.

Another thing that’s concerning for the Timberwolves is that Anthony Edwards looked pretty banged up last game. The 21-year-old averaged 24.6 points per game during the regular season, but he had just nine points on 3-of-17 shooting from the field and 0-of-9 shooting from deep in a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday. If he doesn’t quickly get himself right, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. Minnesota has no chance of winning this game without Edwards looking like his usual self.

Look for this to be another game in which Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey play well for Oklahoma City. Gilgeous-Alexander had 32 points in the win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday, while Giddey had 31 points, 10 assists and nine boards in that game. These two badly want to play some postseason basketball this year, and they fully believe they’re capable of doing some damage if they get a chance.

We should also note that the road team was 4-0 against the spread in the four regular season meetings between these teams this season. And the Thunder won’t be intimidated playing in Minnesota after having already went on the road and defeated the Pelicans in New Orleans. Oklahoma City also happens to be 15-6 ATS when facing teams that shoot at least 48.0% from the field this year, and the Thunder won those games by an average of 3.5 points per game.

It's also worth mentioning that Oklahoma City is 8-0 ATS under head coach Mark Daigneault when playing on the road against an opponent it lost to by three or fewer points in a previous meeting. Daigneault doesn’t get the love he deserves because he coaches in a small market, but he’s a brilliant head coach and he’ll have his team prepared for this game.

Thunder at Timberwolves Total Analysis
These were two top-10 teams in the NBA when it came to pace of play during the regular season. Oklahoma City was up at third, while Minnesota was seventh. And the Thunder could look to play even faster in this one, as they’ll have opportunities to score easily if they beat Towns and Gobert down the floor. On the flip side, the Timberwolves will have some chances to get easy buckets by dumping it inside to Towns or Gobert in half-court situations.

If Edwards doesn’t completely poop the bed again, this should end up being a relatively high-scoring game. Oklahoma City just has so many players that can create off the dribble, and this Minnesota defense might not have an answer for that. And if the Thunder are lighting it up, the Timberwolves will be forced to try and keep pace with them. That’ll lead to some more rim pressure from Edwards, who has the ability to score in a hurry.

Heat-Bulls Play-In betting at BetMGM


HEAT open -5.5, no movement
▪️ 24% of bets, 20% of money on Heat

Total open 208.5, no movement
▪️ 85% of bets, 77% of money on Over

Bulls open +165, now +180
▪️ 77% of bets, 83% of money on Bulls

Wolves-Thunder Play-In betting at BetMGM


Timberwolves open -4.5, now -5.5
▪️ 20% of bets, 28% of money on Wolves

Total open 227.5, now 228.5
▪️ 64% of bets, 80% of money on Over

Thunder open +145, now +180
▪️ 78% of bets, 20% of money on OKC