They were. 3-0 to the Rangers.

jbrent is right. Damn, gotta fix that.

I think this is what was already said, but here's what I get for today (04/12)



WAS - currently too warm, but looks like it may drop into range by gametime. Gametime - Accuweather has 59 but then dropping, weather has 56 and dropping.


PIT - temp is good, looks like it will be raining (just a comment, nothing to do with the system). They are a play if they stay a dog (looks like they will).


FLA - too warm.


LAD - looks like a definite play


TAM - looks like a definite play. Currently too warm, but dropping well into range.


BAL - were shutout last game, so no play.


KAN - too warm.



So, looks like
WAS - check temp
PIT - check line
LAD
TAM

Good Luck,
Bart

Thanks Bart gl today.

PIT plays out. Game's been postponed due to rain.

That's a shame.

Dissecting this further and further, home teams, especially in the NL, have done better than away teams.

Numbers are as of this morning.

NL home teams 38-11 +3372 ROI 68.8% (WHAT!!!)

AL home teams 37-27 +1730 ROI 27.0%

NL Road teams 70-65 +2570 ROI 19.0%

AL Road teams 82-68 +4120 ROI 27.5%

I'm -NOT- suggesting going overboard on NL home teams, just thought it was interesting.

So far there's only been 1 NL home team this season, and they lost. Who knows, maybe this will be the first losing season for NL home teams (worst before this was 2004 when they went 1-1).


Good Luck,
Bart

WAS - W
PIT - pspd
LAD - L
TAM - W

Today's plays:

KC
PIT
TB
LAD

BAL out b/c of previous shutout.
HOU out b/c too warm.
Watch temp for PHI-WAS. Currently I have 61F. (WAS would be the play)

Bart (and all),
I was playing with the query yesterday. If you add "and not Saturday" see the results. It's enough to convince me never to play Saturdays.

updated record, excluding Saturdays, since 4/3:
10-7, +7.15u, 44.6% ROI (!!!)

note on the spreadsheet: there was no bodog line for the MIL-PIT game, so it erroneously lists MIL as the play


Updated spreadsheet, fixing shutout bug from yesterday:
http://www.mediafire.com/?xljdxo2qago29c2

From the database, I get 9-7 +4.75 as the record if you exclude Saturdays.


WHAT'S THE CODE FOR LEAVE THE FOLLOWING TEXT ALONE?

It edits the SDQL

Anyway, here's the list of games I get.


Recap Date Site Team Starter Opp Starter
Score SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
view 04-03-2011 home Indians Masterson - R White Sox Danks - L 7-1 6 W -0.5 U 11-7 1-0 6-1 120 8.5 9
view 04-03-2011 home Nationals Zimmermann - R Braves Hudson - R 2-11 -9 L 5.5 O 4-12 1-0 0-10 130 7.5 9
view 04-03-2011 away Brewers Wolf - L Reds Arroyo - R 3-12 -9 L 6.5 O 7-19 1-0 1-9 115 8.5 9
view 04-04-2011 away Pirates Morton - R Cardinals Lohse - R 4-3 1 W -2.0 U 8-6 0-1 3-1 140 9.0 9
view 04-05-2011 away Mets Young - R Phillies Hamels - L 7-1 6 W -0.5 U 13-7 0-0 6-0 170 8.5 9
view 04-05-2011 away Astros Happ - L Reds Leake - R 2-8 -6 L 1.5 O 5-10 0-0 0-7 150 8.5 9
view 04-06-2011 away Mets Pelfrey - R Phillies Blanton - R 7-10 -3 L 7.5 O 12-16 1-1 0-7 130 9.5 9
view 04-08-2011 away Nationals Zimmermann - R Mets Dickey - R 6-2 4 W 0.5 O 9-7 0-1 4-0 135 7.5 9
view 04-08-2011 away Yankees Hughes - R Red Sox Lackey - R 6-9 -3 L 5.0 O 8-12 2-0 2-3 120 10.0 9
view 04-08-2011 away Royals Davies - R Tigers Scherzer - R 2-5 -3 L -2.0 U 11-10 0-0 0-4 160 9.0 9
view 04-10-2011 away Nationals Marquis - R Mets Young - R 7-3 4 W 2.0 O 7-8 0-0 4-2 130 8.0 10+
view 04-10-2011 home Red Sox Beckett - R Yankees Sabathia - L 4-0 4 W -5.5 U 12-2 0-0 4-0 105 9.5 9
view 04-11-2011 away Dodgers Kershaw - L Giants Bumgarner - L 6-1 5 W 0.5 O 11-7 0-1 6-0 100 6.5 9
view 04-12-2011 away Dodgers Billingsley - R Giants Lincecum - R 4-5 -1 L 2.5 O 8-9 0-1 3-1 162 6.5 9
view 04-12-2011 home Nationals Hernandez - R Phillies Blanton - R 7-4 3 W 2.5 O 9-10 0-0 5-1 115 8.5 9
view 04-12-2011 away Rays Price - L Red Sox Lester - L 3-2 1 W -3.0 U 8-5 0-0 2-1 160 8.0 9




So far this season, I get 4-4 +1.65 on Saturdays.

My notes for 04/13

PIT - temp looks good, line is on borderline


WAS - temp close but good - if anything, dropping as game goes on. Line +170, been fluctuating up then back to +170 so far.


FLA - was shutout last game, no play. Teams off shutout with no rest, and the temp is too warm, 11-23, lean to ATL


HOU - too warm.


LAD - temp and line look good.


TAM - temp and line look good, but rain is anywhere from 60% to 100%, could be rained out.


KAN - temp and line look good.


BAL - was shutout last game, no play.



Summary

PIT - check line

WAS - check temp and line.

FLA - no play.

HOU - no play.

LAD - definite play.

TAM - definite play, but could be rained out.

KAN - definite play.

BAL - no play.

TB is rained out

Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (WASHINGTON) - where team's hitters strike out 7 or more times/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(115-99 since 1997.) (53.7%, +62.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +140.1
The average score in these games was: Team 4.4, Opponent 4.7 (Average run differential = -0.3)

PHILADELPHIA is 29-40 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.9, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)

WASHINGTON is 23-12 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 4.4, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)

WASHINGTON is 17-11 (+13.4 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 5.0, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

WASHINGTON is 20-6 UNDER (+13.2 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*)

PHILADELPHIA is 40-22 UNDER (+14.2 Units) as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.9, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA is 9-19 (-18.4 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.1, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 3*)

LEe - recent Starts
4/8/2011 at ATLANTA 3-6 -110 7 Loss,Over L 3.3 6 6 10 0 1 3 HUDSON(R)
4/2/2011 HOUSTON 9-4 - 240 7 Win,Over W 7 3 3 4 1 0 11 RODRIGUE
Z(L)
road starts ERA/WHIP 16.22 3.303

LEE is 2-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.188.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)
9/15/2009 WASHINGTON 5-0 -285 9 Win,Under W 9 0 0 6 0 3 9 MOCK(R)
9/9/2009 at WASHINGTON 6-5 -200 8.5 Win,Over W 7 5 4 10 0 0 4 MOCK(R)

Zimmermann - recent starts
4/8/2011 at NY METS 6-2 +140 7.5 Win,Over W 5.3 2 2 6 0 0 4 DICKEY(R)
4/3/2011 ATLANTA 2-11 +125 7.5 Loss,Over L 6 3 2 4 0 3 2 HUDSON(R)
Home ERA/WHIP Starts 3.00 1.167

ZIMMERMANN is 0-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 11.25 and a WHIP of 2.500.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)
9/18/2010 at PHILADELPHIA 2-5 +135 9. 5 Loss,Under L 3 5 5 9 3 1 3 KENDRICK(R)

5/17/2009 PHILADELPHIA 6-8 -110 10.5 Loss,Over 5 5 5 7 0 3 6 PARK(R)

ARRIETA is 2-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.379.
His team's record is 2-0 (+4.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

NY YANKEES are 13-16 (-12.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY YANKEES 4.6, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 0*)

Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season against opponent excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game on the season.
(34-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (55.7%, +33.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +178.9

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season against opponent excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game on the season.
(40-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (54.8%, +37.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +176.8

SHOWALTER
is 11-7 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +200 as the manager of BALTIMORE.
The average score was BALTIMORE 3.5, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 1*)

is 23-15 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in night games as the manager of BALTIMORE.
The average score was BALTIMORE 3.9, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*)

is 25-15 (+17.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters as the manager of BALTIMORE.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.2, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*)

is 15-4 UNDER (+10.7 Units) in road games against right-handed starters as the manager of BALTIMORE.
The average score was BALTIMORE 3.4, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)

NOLASCO is 13-2 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was NOLASCO 5.7, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 1*)

NOLASCO is 16-6 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NOLASCO 4.6, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

NOLASCO is 12-3 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NOLASCO 4.4, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)

NOLASCO is 10-3 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NOLASCO 4.5, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 0*)

NOLASCO is 10-1 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NOLASCO 4.8, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)

FLORIDA - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
ERA/WHIP
Road Games 2.53 1.032
Grass Games 2.25 1.111
Night Games 2.77 1.116
Division 1.88 1.047

Nolasco Seasonal Stats(2-0) (2games totaling 15IP)
Road Starts 2.25 1.000
Nite/Grass Starts 2.40 1.000
Division 2.57 1.000

ATLANTA - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
Home Games 6.48 1.681
Division 4.50 1.501

Brandon Beachy (0-1)- season (2gm 12IP)
Home Starts 6.00 1.167
Division 6.00 1.500

RODRIGUEZ is 8-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) as the manager of FLORIDA.
The average score was FLORIDA 4.4, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 1*)
RODRIGUEZ is 18-10 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse as the manager of FLORIDA.
The average score was FLORIDA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)

GONZALEZ is 40-22 OVER (+17.0 Units) in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in all games he has managed since 1997.
The average score was GONZALEZ 4.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
GONZALEZ is 98-67 OVER (+27.9 Units) in home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in all games he has managed since 1997.
The average score was GONZALEZ 4.8, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
GONZALEZ is 15-4 OVER (+11.0 Units) in home games vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season in all games he has managed since 1997.
The average score was GONZALEZ 5.7, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)

will be staying off this one.... just don't want to mess with Atlanta tonite

04/14 - 4 possible plays


MIL / PIT - game time temp listed as too warm, but dropping as game goes on. Currently in the database lined at -105 both ways, but early move is towards PIT (update - now seems to be moving back). PIT was shutout last game, so they can't be a play, MIL is a play if they are a dog and the temperature is in range.


WAS - too warm


FLA - too warm


BAL - right on the temperature borderline. And, the line is moving up.



Summary

MIL - check line and temperature.

BAL- check line and temperature.

Looks like it is too warm for any game to be a play today (Thursday, 04/14).

Be back tomorrow.


Good Luck,
Bart

04/15


5 division games.



FLA - line on borderline at +175. Temperature is good.


PIT - currently looks like it will be too warm, but check back. Line is currently +165 in the database, check that as well.


NYM - too warm.


ARI - too warm.


TOR - definite play. Line and temperature in range.



Good Luck,
Bart

Thanks Bart. I see the same.

bump

04/16

It was pointed out going into this season that Saturdays haven't done as well. So far, 6-7 +1.66 units.


Overall 16-14 +8.37 units.



5 division games.




PIT - definite play. Line was taken down overnight, I think the pitching change was announced pretty early. If anyone has any thoughts on why the line was not put up until recently, would appreciate knowing, not that it has anything to do with the system, would just prefer to know. The CIN second baseman is out again, but that was also known. Anyway, PIT is a play.


NYM game 1 of double header - too warm.

NYM game 2 of double header - probably too warm, but accuweather has it at 60 vs. weather's 63 at 7pm eastern. Line is in range.


FLA - line has been moving up, check line. Temperature is good. Rain is listed at 80-90%.


SFO /ARI - too warm.


TOR - Temperature is good, but line too high and looks like it's moving up if anything.



Good Luck,
Bart