The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
|
|
|
|
|
|
my boy Cam
Registered: Oct 2003
Posts: 111
|
Just my 2cents on this game. Being a Bengals fan, I've suffered through another long season but seen every game. Looking at this total, I do see slight value in the total.
Cincy allows just under 28 pts. a game on the road, but that number is a little decieving. 3 of the 6 road games stick out to me the most. The Cleveland, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh games. According to my calculations, their were 44 pts. given up by this Bengal defense or special teams that were just inexcusable. 21 in the Cleve game, 10 in the Pitts game, 13 in the Buff game. Now if you look at what San Fran scores on average at home(a little over 9) and gives up ( 20). You might have the makings for a nice under situation. San Fran is starting a 3rd stringer at QB, which might give a little confidence to Joseph and Hall in the secondary, leaving San Fran the option of running alot. I also see Rudi getting quite a few carries to set up the pass, but Carson hasn't been as sharp this year, setting up for possible 3rd and long situations. If the San Fran defense plays true to form and allows their 20 pts. at home, or even allows an extra FG, Cincy will probably be good for 23 pts.
I look for San Fran to score a few more than their at home average(again 9 pts.) Factor those numbers, and I see a 23 -13, or 24-16 type game. My play will be UNDER 42.5
|
12-15-07 11:24 PM |
|
|
| |
|
|