9:40 a.m. ET: Even though they have to cover the largest spread of the day, the Cowboys are getting a ton of support. Eighty-two percent of the money and 77% of the tickets are on Dallas at the Westgate SuperBook.

10:25 a.m. ET: More Cowboys money has shown up at the Westgate SuperBook. They just took a $20,000 bet on Dallas to cover as 21.5-point favorites against Miami.

10:15 a.m. ET: The biggest decision for DraftKings may end up being Broncos vs. Packers. They report that 86% of the money is on the Packers (-7), narrowly edging out the Cowboys (84%) and Patriots (80%) as the most lopsided handle so far.

10:05 a.m. ET: A huge bet just came in at PointsBet. A bettor put down $390,000 on a two-leg moneyline parlay on the Packers (-360 vs. Broncos) and 49ers (-300 vs. Steelers). The wager would net $299,910 if the Pack and Niners win today.

“It doesn’t matter whether you win by an inch or a mile. Winning is winning.” This famous quote by Dom Toretto was pertinent as the Texans won by literal inches over the Jaguars, 13-12.

It was a fun sweat for those who tailed me on Houston last week. The two popular picks (Patriots, Ravens) both won with relative ease. The decision of when to use New England this year will be a fascinating one as it will be heavily favored in several games barring severe injuries.

The only team that knocked out a chunk of entrants was the Panthers. Some users used Carolina on a short week against Tampa Bay. Home favorites have historically been very good on Thursday Night Football, but a lackluster effort from (an injured?) Cam Newton cost around 10% of entrants last week.

We have an unprecedented situation this week with two massive favorites in the Patriots and Cowboys. Is it smart to take one of these teams, or go in a different direction than the masses?

The Patriots are the most likely team to win this week. They are also projected to be the most likely team to win in the next four weeks. It’s not a question of if, but when we’ll use New England.

The Cowboys are huge favorites and this is their easiest projected game of the season. This isn’t lost on users as 70% of players are taking Dallas this week.

I often want to fade the most popular team because game theory dictates to do this in hopes that a large chunk of your pool is eliminated after a big upset, giving you a better chance to win even though you are taking a bigger risk.

Lions-Eagles Spread...

+7.5: Monday a.m.
+7: Monday p.m.
+6.5: Wednesday
+6: Thursday
+5.5: Friday
+5: Saturday
+4.5: Sunday a.m.
+4: Currently

Lions (+4) are currently receiving 53% of tickets...

11:25 a.m. ET: According to CG’s Tony DiTomasso, they’ve taken sharp money on the Broncos, Lions, Ravens, Falcons, Jets, Dolphins and Bears.

11:20 a.m. ET: “We need the Packers to beat the sharps, but we need the Broncos to beat the parlays,” DiTomasso said. “The four games that are in every parlay seem to be the Rams, Packers, Seahawks and Chiefs.”

This is a situation where a lot of the stats favoring Pittsburgh are based off of last year’s games. These two teams in particular are both completely different teams from this game to last year.

thanks for your observations & insights to this thread, it's open to all to add
GL

12:35 p.m. ET: FanDuel is on an island trying to attract some Patriots money. They have moved the Jets to +20.5, while the rest of the market seems content on hanging the Pats at -21.

12:25 p.m. ET: After opening as high as -7.5, the Eagles are now down to -4 against the Lions. Eighty-five percent of the money is on the Eagles at PointsBet, making it one of the book’s biggest decisions of the day. It was compounded by a $13,000 wager on the Birds at -4.

Outstanding info as always. Thanks for your tireless work Mike

highlighted the importance of buying low on winless teams in Week 3. On Sunday, these teams went 5-2 ATS, with big covers from the Bengals, Giants, Steelers, Jets and Panthers. These teams are now 66-50 ATS (57%) since 2003.