Sunday, 09/22/2019 (485) PITTSBURGH vs. (486) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: PITTSBURGH against the spread.
Play Against - Home favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
(34-5 since 1983.) (87.2%, +28.5 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 09/22/2019 (485) PITTSBURGH vs. (486) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: PITTSBURGH against the spread.
Play Against - Home favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game
(23-2 since 1983.) (92.0%, +20.8 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 09/22/2019 (485) PITTSBURGH vs. (486) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: PITTSBURGH against the spread.
Play Against - Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game
(27-4 since 1983.) (87.1%, +22.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 09/22/2019 (485) PITTSBURGH vs. (486) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: PITTSBURGH against the spread.
Play On - Underdogs or pick (PITTSBURGH) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game
(27-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2 units).

five rules of thumb to keep in mind before ever betting a teaser in the NFL, which should really be the only sport where you consider teasers as a serious investment.

Cross At Least Two Key Numbers
Don’t Ever Cross Zero
Don’t Tease Totals
Price Matters
Know Your Book

In order to break even on a 6-point teaser at -110, you need teams that have a greater than 72.4% chance of covering after being teased. If we look back in our Bet Labs database, all NFL regular season spreads since 2003 covered only 69% of the time (5548-2541) if teased six points. Nice, but not nice enough.

The story changes if we filter for all teases that would’ve captured both the 3 and 7.

NFL regular season underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 covered a 6-point teaser 74% of the time (296-101). And favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 covered at a 76% clip (170-55). That gives us a total of 466-156 or 74.9%, which clears the 72.4% hurdle rate.

But some books have smartened up and are no longer offering six-point NFL teasers at -110. So, if you can only bet a six-point teaser with -120 odds, do you still have an edge teasing through the 3 and 7 on both sides of an NFL teaser?

The answer is yes! (Obviously assuming the past is a fair indicator of future results.)

In order to breakeven on a two-team six-point teaser at -120 odds, you need to clear a hurdle rate of 73.9%. And as I showed above, we’re at 74.9% dating back to 2003.

It’s not the greatest edge but it is even larger if you go back further in time but then you run into potential non-stationarity issues since the game has changed so much over time. And remember you can increase that edge by including other factors I mentioned before.

Regardless, try to find a book with the best possible odds for your six-point teasers and -120 is the maximum you should only ever consider. For example, if you only had the option of betting a two-team teaser at -130 odds, it wouldn’t make sense, as the hurdle rate with those odds is 75.2%.

Under head coach Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have had all sorts of edges.

They have been a profitable regular-season team to back:

At home: 28-12-1, 35.1% Return on Investment
As favorites: 30-14-1, 32.1% ROI
Outside of division: 37-13-1, 43.3% ROI

Texans +3 at Chargers
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET

The Texans are coming off an ugly performance in which they barely squeaked out a win at home against a rookie QB, while the Chargers fumbled and kicked and threw a close game away against Detroit on the road.

Easy bounce-back spot for the Chargers, right?

I’m not so sure.

Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will surely wreak their fair share of havoc. But the Chargers’ depleted secondary combined with the Texans’ addition of Laremy Tunsil and their healthy top-four wide receiving corps featuring DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills (the No. 1 rated WR by Pro Football Focus through two weeks!) and Keke Coutee — plus Deshaun Watson’s ability to escape pressure and deliver on the run — the Texans should give the Chargers problems.

The Chargers’ ongoing kicking issues make them absolutely liable to not cover, if not lose this game outright.

They’re at home, but so what? It hasn’t been an advantage for them in the Anthony Lynn era, as their 40.0% cover rate in their own building is tied for the sixth-lowest since he took over in 2017.

Oh, and by the way, Watson is 6-2 against the spread as a road underdog — the line tends to sell him short in these situations, and it’s been the most profitable spot to back the Texans (Watson is 7-8-1 ATS in all other situations).

Another trend working in Houston’s favor? Road underdogs are 115-93-6 ATS since 2003 when both teams failed to cover in the prior week, including 58-40-2 when +4 or less

Entering NFL Sunday...

Road teams:
21-11-1 ATS (65.6%)

Unders:
21-12 (63.6%)

Favorites TD or more:
8-0 SU (4-4 ATS)

Public (more than 50% bets):
12-20-1 ATS (37.5%)

Giants vs. Bucs Weather Report
The Daniel Jones era has begun! However, young Danny boy will have to endure the warm and windy conditions that Raymond James Stadium will be featuring on Sunday.

With temperatures ranging from 90 at kickoff to 84 by game’s end, players will need to stay hydrated to avoid things like heat exhaustion, heat stroke and other heat-related ailments.

Windy unders w/ 80+ degree temps: 35-33 (51.5%)
Windy unders w/ <80 degree temps: 404-316-8 (56.1%)
This total has remained at or within a half point of its opener of 48.

If you like betting on NFL underdogs, today is the day for you.

Historically, Week 3 is the best week of the year to back dogs. According to Bet Labs Sports, dogs have gone 120-95 ATS (55.8%) in Week 3 since 2003, winning +20.96 units. This means that a $100 bettor would be up $2,096 betting every dog over this time span. Dogs are already off to a hot start in general this season, going 19-13-1 ATS (59.4%) through two weeks.

Another way to profit in Week 3 is buying low on winless teams. If a team started 0-2 in their first two games, they've covered at a 56% clip in Week 3. The Jaguars just covered in this spot on Thursday night, beating the Titans 20-7 as +1.5 home dogs.

One of the best kept secrets in Week 3 is fading teams who played their first two games on the road. You would think that these teams are excited to be finally be home and play well in front of their home crowd, but instead they've produced a let down spot. Since 2003, betting against these teams coming home for the first time has resulted in a 28-11 ATS record (71.8%).

Here are the matches for today

Bengals
Ravens
Falcons
Steelers

Week 3 is already making history by featuring two dogs of +20 or more, believed to be the first time in NFL history. Since 2003, there have only been five teams favored by 20 or more (three of which were the Patriots in 2007) and these teams have gone 0-5 ATS. The Dolphins (+22.5 at Cowboys) and Jets (+21 at Patriots) both match today.

1 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (2-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)
This early 1 p.m. ET showdown at Arrowhead Stadium is by far the most heavily bet and most intriguing game of Sunday's slate. Both teams enter this showdown with perfect 2-0 records and feature two of the league's most product and exciting young quarterbacks. Kansas City opened at 6.5-point home favorites. Roughly two-thirds of bets are laying the points with Patrick Mahomes and company. However, despite this lopsided Chiefs betting, the line has fallen down to 5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Baltimore, with pros getting down hard on the Ravens at +6.5 and causing the line to move in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Baltimore hung tough in this spot at the end of last night, losing 27-24 in overtime at Kansas City. We've also seen heavy smart money on the under. The total opened at 55 and has been bet down to 52 despite three-out-of-four wagers taking the over. Winds are expected at 12-14 MPH and John Hussey is the lead official, one of the best under refs in football (unders 61.3% since 2003).

1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions (1-0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
It's a misconception that sharps and squares are always on opposite sides of a game. Sure, wiseguys like to bet against the public and extract additional value from inflated or deflated lines. But they will not stubbornly go against a play or lay off simply because the public is in agreement. Sharps get down if they see an edge, period. This game is the perfect example. The line opened with the Eagles listed as 7-point favorites. Roughly 60% of bets are grabbing the points, causing the line to fall from -7 to -5. Some books are even down to 4.5. The total is also intriguing. It opened at 48 and has fallen to 45.5, triggering market-wide revers line movement. Two added bonuses for sharp under bettors: the wind is blowing at 7-9 MPH and Tony Corrente is the lead referee (unders have won 57.2% of the time with Corrente since 2005).

4:25 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
The public doesn't know which way to go with the spread. They still want to believe in the Steelers even with Mason Rudolph taking over for Big Ben, but they also can't help but back the undefeated 49ers at home. Sharps, however, have taken a clear side. This line opened at San Francisco -7. Bets are split right down the middle, yet we've seen the line tumble a full point down to 6.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this drop was caused by pros with an edge loading up on Pittsburgh at the key number of +7. Wiseguys also see value on this under. The total opened at 44.5. Roughly three-out-of-four bets are on the over, yet the line has fallen to 43.5. This represents a classic case of sharp reverse line move on the under.

One of the best times in the NFL season to be contrarian is Week 3. Teams that start slow are often buy-low candidates while those that come out of the gates strong could be overvalued.

There are three situational spots I’m eyeing for Week 3:

Buying low on teams that failed to cover in Weeks 1 and 2
Fading teams in home openers
Betting the over after both teams went under the previous week
The sample size is not huge for any of these trends but the results have been consistent year-to-year. If you buy the reasoning behind the systems, there is situational value to be found this weekend.

Buy Low on 0-2 ATS Teams
Eight teams have started the 2019 season 0-2 against the spread (ATS). Most recreational bettors will fade a team after they fail to cover. In Week 3, six of the eight 0-2 ATS teams are receiving less than 50% of spread tickets.

But while bettors have had enough, this could be the worst time to jump off the bandwagon. Since 2003, teams that fail to cover the spread in back-to-back games to start the season have gone 70-53 (56.9%) ATS in Week 3.

Oddsmakers know the public will bet against poor performing teams, which leads to inflated lines for their opponents, and thus creates value buying low on teams that have yet to cover

Betting against teams in Week 3 home openers after starting the season with back-to-back road games has gone 27-11-2 ATS.

Ravens WR Marquise Brown
THE PICK: Under 80.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Bet Quality: 10/10

However, per PlayerProfiler, Brown ranks 56th with an average target separation of just 1.39 yards. He has also logged a 40.8% snap share, which ranks 102nd among all wide receivers.

In addition, Brown’s 66.7% catch rate ranks 37th, a byproduct of Lamar Jackson’s occasional accuracy struggles.

In a battle between two Super Bowl favorites, I project it will be difficult for Brown to break free for one of his patented long touchdowns. The weather forecast calls for rain throughout the game, making big passing plays more difficult.

Kansas City has defended the pass well, ranking 12th best in pass defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The Chiefs also rank 11th in pass deflections (12) and fourth in interceptions (three).

While Baltimore’s Jackson has performed brilliantly at quarterback, he only ranks 23rd in pass attempts through two games. Brown will need to maintain his high efficiency with low Week 3 volume while playing in one of the NFL’s most difficult road venues.

We project Brown to fall 16.5 yards short of his implied total making this a full 10-rated prop. So far this season, 10-rated props have hit at a 64% (47-25-1) win rate.

The Ravens-Chiefs game features the highest Over/Under on the board even after it fell to 52 from as high as 56. The big number isn’t keeping bettors away, either. At the time of writing 74% of the bets are on the Over.

What other games are making the most noise in the market? Let’s take a look:

9:25 a.m. ET: This is probably the promotion of the day. The Borgata is trying to onboard new gamblers in New Jersey with a “sure win.” Today, new customers who download their app and register can put $1 on the Cowboys to beat the Dolphins and win $100. Real moneyline odds are -3334, which means you’d have to put $3,334 to return $100.

9:20 a.m. ET: PointsBet, whose PointsBetting feature allows bettors to bet a certain amount per point, took some interesting action on the Eagles -6 against the Lions. A bettor is PointsBetting Philadelphia -6 at $425 per point. So a 7-point win would net the bettor $425 and an 8-point win would net $850. It goes both ways, of course, a 5-point win would lose the bettor $425 and so on. The bettor has placed a max Win/Loss at $8,500.

9:10 a.m. ET: Will the Patriots and Cowboys make it look easy as huge favorites today? New England is down to “just” -21 against the Jets and we’ve heard of one big bet on New York to cover the number. A bettor placed an $11,000 bet on the Jets (+23) at CG Technology earlier in the week. It was also reported that a punter teased the Cowboys and Patriots together, moving Dallas down to -13.5 and New England down -9.5. The $20,000 bet would net $12,000.

9 a.m. ET: It looks like the masses believe Daniel Jones can get the job done for the Giants today. Big Blue is getting 65% of the bets against the Buccaneers and have moved down to +5.5 across the market.

Bengals QB Andy Dalton
THE PICK: Under 25.5 Passing Completions (-115)
Bet Quality: 9/10

As if going against Buffalo’s pass defense in their home opener wasn’t difficult enough, the weather conditions project poorly for Cincinnati’s game against the Bills. Winds at 15-17 mph are expected Sunday in Buffalo.

Regardless, the passing completion total seems high based on Dalton’s NFL history. In 62 career road games, Dalton has averaged 31.6 attempts and just 19.5 completions. The Bills rank seventh-best in pass defense DVOA after finishing second in 2018.

Dalton completed 35 passes in the Bengals 21-20 loss at Seattle, but completed just 26 passes last week at home against San Francisco, in a game they were trailing throughout.

Funnel defenses are either successful at defending the run or the pass, but not both. In essence, the top funnel defenses will “funnel” the opposition towards its statistical weakness.

These are not defenses that are overwhelmingly strong or weak overall as a team. Rather, they are exceptionally strong or weak at one defensive aspect. In 2018, the Houston Texans were very strong against the run but poor against the pass. The Denver Broncos? The exact opposite.

Using data to quantify the weekly strength of a defensive funnel is multi-dimensional. We consider the following factors:

How effective is a defense against the running game and passing game? We employ Football Outsiders’ DVOA to measure this.
What is the difference between DVOA production defending the run versus the pass? The larger the differential, the higher the probability of a funnel.
What are the typical run/pass splits for the offense?
There are other factors you could consider, like defensive run/pass ratio, but those are less predictive. For this piece, we’ll use the three data points listed above.

Last week, we correctly identified Philadelphia-Atlanta as an ideal pass funnel game. Both teams ran for fewer than 58 yards, with Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan totaling 320 passing yards and three touchdowns. While the Eagles lost wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson early in the game due to injuries, quarterback Carson Wentz was still able to help Nelson Agholor crest 100 receiving yards, joining Falcons receivers Julio Jones (106 yards) and Calvin Ridley (105 yards).

Let’s take a look at the top funnel games for Week 3.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The last time we saw the New York Giants on the road, they were allowing 405 passing yards and four touchdowns to Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. We could potentially see more of the same this week when the Giants head to Tampa Bay to face Bruce Arians’ pass-heavy offense. This projects as the strongest pass funnel game, with the Giants having the third-highest pass funnel rating and the Buccaneers ranking as the sixth-highest pass funnel team.

The Giants rank 30th in total defense DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA. The Buccaneers have suffered through poor quarterback play from Jameis Winston (201 passing yards per game, two touchdowns, three interceptions) and poor production from wide receiver Mike Evans (six receptions, 89 total yards) and tight end O.J. Howard (four receptions, 32 total yards). This week should provide Howard his best opportunity to get back on track against a Giants team that allowed 81 receptions, 959 receiving yards and six touchdowns last season to opposing tight ends.

The 48-point over/under is the third-highest on the Week 3 slate, indicating both teams will have scoring success.

The Giants running game will be challenged by a Tampa Bay run defense that ranks first overall in run defense DVOA through two games. While a pass-heavy game script could be suboptimal in rookie quarterback Daniel Jones’ first start, the Giants will need to score points to stay competitive at Tampa Bay. Jones could get enough volume to be viable in fantasy, and New York tight end Evan Engram (17 receptions, 164 receiving yards, one touchdown) should be the primary beneficiary.

Best Fantasy Plays: Evans, Godwin, Winston, Howard (Tampa Bay); Engram, Jones (New York)

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
The second-highest pass funnel game for Week 2 features Atlanta at Indianapolis. The Falcons’ offensive numbers have been greatly skewed by their poor Week 1 showing at Minnesota. In his career, Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan has been at his best in dome games.

New offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has already skewed pass-heavy, with the Falcons ranking 27th among all teams with only 34 rushing attempts through two games. Lead running back Devonta Freeman is off to a miserable start, averaging just 2.2 yards per carry. In two career games against Indianapolis, Ryan is averaging 277.5 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and 25.2 fantasy points per game.

The Colts offense has been surprisingly efficient under quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Indianapolis ranks fourth and ninth, respectively, in run and pass offense DVOA. Despite starting the season with two difficult road games (at Chargers and at Titans), Brissett has thrown five touchdowns and just one interception.

Indianapolis wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has been prolific at home regardless of his quarterback. He has shined in his 48 home games since 2013, including 14 games with Brissett under center.

The Colts also feature wide receiver speed with rookie wideout Parris Campbell (4.31-second 40-yard dash) and second-year Clemson product Deon Cain (4.43-second 40-yard dash).

The Colts also feature efficient tight end Eric Ebron, who led the position with 14 total touchdowns in 2018, and reliable veteran Jack Doyle. Indianapolis has a ton of weapons who are even more dangerous at home.

An over/under of 47 points indicates a shootout, and the controlled dome environment will favor the speedy playmakers for both teams. Look for Atlanta’s anemic running game to trigger a pass-heavy script that the Colts will be happy to match at home in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles
This game features two of the top-10 teams in Week 3 pass offense DVOA.

Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford has averaged 315 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game with a 65.3% completion percentage. While dealing with injuries to several receivers, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has still managed to post averages of 272 passing yards, two touchdowns and a 64.6% completion percentage.

The Eagles have been stout against the run, ranking second-best in run defense DVOA, which should limit the Lions’ run-heavy preference. In their Week 1 tie at Arizona, Detroit failed to have a running back reach 50 rushing yards despite facing one of the league’s worst run defenses. In this road game at Philadelphia, Stafford will need to lean on his strong receiving group of Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola and rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson.

The Eagles enter this game with a limited receiving unit but still feature top tight end Zach Ertz and wide receiver Nelson Agholor, who totaled 11 targets, eight receptions, 107 receiving yards and one touchdown in Week 2.

Philadelphia will also try to attack the Detroit defense through the air with pass-catching running backs Miles Sanders and Darren Sproles. The Lions have allowed the fifth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs through two weeks.

The 46.5 over/under is still fairly high, and the staunch Philadelphia defense will force the conservative Lions to attack through the air. Ignore the injuries and run-heavy Detroit narrative; this game could be surprisingly pass-heavy.

9:50 a.m. ET: There are two notable Sharp vs. Square games on the board. Jeff Sherman of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas said the Jets and Ravens are taking pro money while the Patriots and Chiefs are public darlings.

9:45 a.m. ET: Sherman also told us there’s been some sharp movement on a few teams. Smart money came in on the Broncos, Lions and Giants.