let's keep rolling into the weekend !
GL

Real Madrid and Real Sociedad kick off the soccer weekend in Spain on Friday night with a La Liga match at Reale Arena.

Los Blancos are in the driver's seat for another league title after winning El Clasico on Sunday to own an 11-point lead over Barcelona.

Meanwhile, La Real is eying European football next season by sitting in sixth, which would secure Spain’s bid to the Europa Conference League.

Can Sociedad end a successful campaign with a run in the final six matches of the season? La Real advanced to the round of 16 of the Champions League and the semifinal of the Copa del Rey.

Unfortunately, there will be no silverware for the club, but Imanol Alguacil’s side needs to close the year strong to earn a spot in Europe next season.

Alguacil hasn’t had a primary striker step up this season. However, he has gotten plenty of production from Mikel Oyarzabal and Takefusa Kubo.

The duo has combined for 16 league goals and five assists to play a direct role in just under half of Sociedad’s goals. They will need another big performance in this one.

After conceding the league title to their rival, Madrid have bounced back with a dominant campaign to regain the La Liga crown.

This could go down as one of manager Carlo Ancelotti’s best seasons, especially with the early injuries to the defense.

Ancelotti has been without Thibaut Courtois, Éder Militão and David Alaba for most of the campaign. He has been able to fill in the holes left by multiple squad players transitioning from midfield or other positions.

It helps when you have the front three of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo. The trio has chipped in 40 goals and 14 assists.

If you have followed our Friday La Liga articles, you know how profitable it is to bet on the home teams in these games, but I can’t look away from getting Real Madrid as an underdog.

Let’s do some price comparison. These are the same odds you could have gotten for Carlo Ancelotti’s team at Barcelona in October.

Los Blancos also closed as the favorite at Atlético Madrid in January and at -141 odds on the moneyline at Real Betis in December.

Yes, I understand they have the first leg of the Champions League semifinal at Bayern Munich on Tuesday. However, this hasn’t stopped Ancelotti from playing his main attacking trio in similar games in La Liga all year.

nice win to start the weekend
GL

OVERs are 188-129-18 (59%) this EPL season.

Best OVER teams this year


Chelsea 22-10
Sheffield 22-12
Newcastle 21-9-3
West Ham 21-12-1
Brentford 21-12-1
Bournemouth 20-11-3
Luton 20-9-5
Aston Villa 19-13-2
Wolves 19-13-2
Fulham 18-12-4
Crystal 18-13-3

Odds to win EPL at BetMGM

Man City -175
Arsenal +150
Liverpool +2800

Highest Ticket%: Arsenal 25.1%
Highest Handle%: Liverpool 29.0%

Liverpool face a must-win scenario to retain any realistic hope of staying in the Premier League title chase when they visit a West Ham side that is also combatting a late-season swoon.

Liverpool were stunned in a 2-0 defeat at Merseyside rivals Everton on Wednesday, a result that means they will need both Manchester City and Arsenal to slip up down the stretch to have any hope of contending for that elusive league crown.

West Ham were idle in midweek after one of their worst performances of the season, a 5-2 defeat to Crystal Palace last Sunday that was every bit as lopsided as the score indicated. They enter the weekend eighth, a point in front of a Chelsea side with two games in hand.

Liverpool earned a 3-1 victory in these sides' previous meeting back at Anfield in late September.

If the Hammers are going to rescue their hopes of qualifying for a European place, they'll have to do it the hard way.

West Ham have won only one of their previous seven league fixtures, and only have four wins in all competitions since 2024 began. And now they face Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City as part of their final four league fixtures.

The 2024 grind — influenced by key injuries at times and a congested schedule at others — has resulted in a sentiment around the club that manager David Moyes likely will move on after the season. And with the Scotsman's contract up at year's end, it's certainly fair for bettors to question whether West Ham's motivation level will be up to standard.

West Ham were without leading scorer Jarrod Bowen (back) in Sunday's loss to a Crystal Palace side that is sneakily dangerous now that all their attacking pieces are healthy.

But the full week of rest — the first such break the Hammers have had (that wasn't a FIFA international window) since late February — should allow the striker time to recover after he needed a pain-killing injection to play in the second leg of their Europa League quarterfinal.

Bowen's presence wasn't enough that night in a 1-1 draw against Bayer Leverkusen that allowed the Germans to advance with a 3-1 aggregate victory. But it was a strong home performance, showing that the Hammers still have enough quality to earn results against elite opposition if the focus and fitness is there.

Liverpool are in a similar position to West Ham in a couple of ways.

They are definitely in the final season under manager Jurgen Klopp, who announced months ago he will depart after the campaign is complete. And their recent swoon also began with their elimination from the Europa League to Italian side Atalanta, who earned a stunning 3-0 win in the first leg at Anfield en route to a 3-1 aggregate victory.

They now have less than 72 hours to flush their 2-0 defeat at Everton from memory and play a third successive away league match in seven days.

While the xG totals suggested Liverpool were unfortunate in their defeat to their city rivals, that was only partly true. Everton created the majority of the match's chances from the opening whistle until Jarrad Branthwaite's deserved goal in the 27th minute.

Liverpool only exerted control after falling behind — a pattern they've gotten away with often this season — and this time a combination of the woodwork and excellent goalkeeping by Jordan Pickford kept Everton in front for the duration.

After failing to score only once between August and March, the Reds have now been shut out in three of their last five matches in all competitions, despite creating more than seven expected goals across those three games.

They will hope the return of Cody Gakpo helps halt those struggles after he missed the Merseyside Derby due to his partner giving birth.

While Liverpool's failure to convert chances probably owes at least somewhat to the fatigue of this current stretch, the quick turnaround for Saturday's match may be a blessing in disguise.

The loss at Everton was hardly the most physically exerting fixture, with the Reds having three-quarters of the possession. And a longer layoff between games might allow more time for Liverpool to digest just how much the result had hurt their title chances.

Instead, I think they'll respond here in a good way, which makes this a spot to pay attention more to the season-long trends than the recent ones. And throughout the full season, the best Liverpool wager on their away travels in the league has been to parlay a yes bet on both teams to score with the total coming in under 4.5.

There's nothing that says late-season Premier League like 13th-placed Fulham hosting 14th-placed Crystal Palace in a London derby with four matches to play and both mathematically safe from relegation. European qualification is all but out of the picture, so these two sides aren't playing for much more than pride and possibly delivering their fans a couple moments of joy before the summer intermission.

Having said that, Oliver Glasner, who took over at Palace in February, will certainly want to use these last fixtures to get his players as comfortable with his game model as possible. And for both coaches it's always nice to finish on a high note and then build off a strong run-in heading into next year.

The last meeting between these two teams finished in a scoreless draw, but with Roy Hodgson on the touchline for the Eagles, not much can be gleaned from that contest heading into this one.

Despite losing Aleksandar Mitrovic — and nearly Joao Palhinha as well — in the summer, Marco Silva's Fulham avoided a case of second-season syndrome pretty comfortably. Finishing with 50-plus points in the top-half like last year might be unlikely, but it could be worse. The Cottagers have had a strange last two months as well, finding wins against Manchester United, Brighton, Tottenham and West Ham but then failing to beat either Sheffield United or Nottingham Forest.

Fulham are one of the better-coached teams in the league, currently ranked ninth in Field Tilt and hovering around the median in xThreat for and against. This starts with their solidity out of possession. The Cottagers line up in a base 4-3-3 shape, but that can morph into a lot of different forms depending on what the opponent does, and against Palace, that 4-3-3 will be asymmetric, looking like a 4-4-2 at times. Structure is just part of the battle though, and what really makes Fulham so sound defensively is how they block forward passing lanes and protect "jumps" — when a player goes to close down the ball, leaving space behind them. In possession, they're decent as well, but it's primarily been the defensive stability that they've hung their hat on this season.

Few teams are in better form than Crystal Palace right now. Glasner and co. have won their last three matches by an aggregate score of 8-2, including triumphs at Liverpool and at home against Newcastle. The Austrian's Premier League journey got off to a bit of a rocky start, but his players are executing his vision of football, and for those who watched his Eintracht Frankfurt teams, you'll see how quickly Palace have picked up that same style of play.

Everyone in a blue and red shirt is performing well at the moment, but Michael Olise and especially Eberechi Eze both deserve their own mentions, providing the creative spark in the half-spaces that's driving this team in possession. Jean-Philippe Mateta has been the biggest beneficiary of their play, netting back-to-back braces and leading the Eagles in goals since Glasner took over with eight.

The Eagles defend in a 5-2-3 block, and then push the wingbacks forward while narrowing the wingers to form a 3-2-5 in possession. The front three in this one is likely to be Mateta flanked by Olise and Eze, but Jordan Ayew is a possibility to start in place of Olise as well. The double pivot of Adam Wharton and Will Hughes has been stellar, with the former taking real command of the midfield recently despite being just 20-years-old and only joining the team in January. The way he understands tempo and angles is just remarkable, and combined with the movement of the forwards in front of him, that becomes a real problem for opponents.

Fulham moneyline opened at +100 and is now sitting between +105 and +110, which is still too high. This type of game plays into Glasner's tactics perfectly, as his team will be able to sit off a bit away from home, focus on defensively rigidity and exploit turnovers in transition.

The Eagles might not win on the road, but they will continue their unbeaten run.

Pick: Crystal Palace +0.5 (-130)

Crystal Palace are in a good spot right now, having won three games in a row. They haven’t won four Premier League fixtures in succession for the best part of four years, but I think they will end that wait against Fulham.

I get regular updates on how things are going with Palace as my brother is a season ticket holder there and attends every home match. For the first time in a long while, there is a real feel-good factor around the club, with the team playing some really entertaining soccer.

In midweek against Newcastle, they were much the better side, ending up 2-0 victors, but it really should have been a win by a much wider margin. They even had the luxury of resting one of their star men, Michael Olise, and taking the sublime Eberechi Eze off with 10 minutes remaining.

Moreover, they have a striker in Jean-Philippe Mateta who is bursting with confidence and scoring goals. The 26-year-old got both goals against Newcastle, his eighth goal in nine appearances under Oliver Glasner, closing in on the combined total of 11 goals he scored in 79 games across the management spells of Roy Hodgson and Patrick Vieira.

These two sides may not be separated by much geographically, but they certainly have contrasting opinions of the season right now. The Fulham fans will want the season over, they’ve done ok but let’s break for summer and rebuild. In contrast Palace fans can’t get enough of what they are seeing.

I was so tempted to put the Eagles up on the moneyline against a Fulham side stumbling their way to the end of the season. Instead, I am playing it a little safe and taking the visitors tie-no-bet at +150.

The Cottagers have lost three of the last four games, and there is good symmetry in their fixtures to allow us a form comparison to Palace. The last three games have seen a 2-0 win against West Ham and defeats to Liverpool and Newcastle by 3-1 and 1-0 scorelines. Glasner’s men have faced the same teams in their last three fixtures—impressively winning them all: 1-0 at Liverpool with 2-0 and 5-2 home wins against Newcastle and West Ham.

It seems the home side are more likely to turn up wearing espadrilles rather than soccer boots and Crystal Palace can take advantage. With nothing at stake in this match it appeals to keep the draw onside so in this case if it does end all square, we get our stake back.

EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace Tie No Bet at +150.

Sheffield United could be officially relegated from the Premier League on Saturday if the Blades lose at Newcastle. The Blades are 10 points back from 17th-place Nottingham Forest with four matches to play. Barring another points deduction, they're going to need to win all four, and get help, to avoid a return to the second tier of English football.

Meanwhile, Newcastle is in the heart of the race for the Europa League and a top-six finish. The Magpies are three points behind Manchester United with five matches to play and still face off against them at Old Trafford in the penultimate match of their season.

Sheffield took multiple leads against Manchester United in the midweek and have shown renewed attacking intent through Gustavo Hamer and Ben Brereton Diaz, but the defense is nearing historical levels of bad and could concede 100 goals this year.

Newcastle was blanked in the midweek against Crystal Palace, but that was just a poor 90 minutes in the midst of what has otherwise been a clear top four attacking side when fit this season. The Magpies have had Alexander Isak, Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon all fit for this recent stretch of matches, and all three have produced at a clip of 0.52 NPxG + xA per 90 or better this season. Isak and Barnes are all the way up at 0.77, which is clear top-six level attacking production this season.

The recent home matches have been especially encouraging for Newcastle. They thrashed Wolves 3-0 at home with 2.1 xG, then followed it up by scoring four on West Ham, tying Everton 1-1 (2.3 xG) and beating Spurs 4-0. Newcastle isn't nearly as good defensively as it was last year, but the Magpies remain excellent at playing with the lead. Eddie Howe's sides have been consistently good front runners for multiple years because of their ability to seek and exploit 1-on-1s in space.

The Magpies rank second in the Premier League in final third to box entry conversion rate and continue to be top five in xG per 90 and second in big scoring chances created. Sheffield United can't just settle for or play for a draw here, so this match should be plenty open, which plays into Newcastle's strengths as an attack.

Sheffield United is clearly the worst team in the league this season, even if Luton's underlying defensive numbers are almost as bad. Sheffield United is last in shot differential, box entry differential, field tilt and are also a full 27 goals apart from the next worst team by goal differential.

Not many expected the Blades to remain in the Premier League, but the market entering the season didn't expect them to be the worst overall team. The goalkeeper issues and the lack of defending have persisted throughout, but the attack has shown some real promise in the past month.

If you sort the Premier League data by just the past 10 weeks, Sheffield United rises to 14th in xG created at 1.28 per match.

Newcastle is favored by a full two goals once home-field advantage is taken into account, so there's no value for me in the side. But given that Sheffield United's attack has been marginally better, Newcastle is an excellent front runner with incentive to run up the score and Sheffield United has to play to win from the opening kick, this total is still a bit low at just 3.5.

Wolves have zero wins in their last seven matches in all competitions following a midweek defeat to Bournemouth and have fallen out of the top half of the Premier League. Gary O'Neil's side has drifted to 12th and Saturday's home match against Luton Town is their best chance at a win based on pre-match odds in their final four games. Wolves don't have a ton to play for in this final stretch, and they have been downgraded by the market as a result.

Luton Town have one win in the league since February began and they're now in desperation mode as they look to surpass Nottingham Forest and leap out of the relegation places with a win on Saturday. Luton have four matches remaining — Wolves (A), Everton (H), West Ham (A) and Fulham (H) — to conclude the season. They'll likely need at least four points to have any real chance of staying up.

It's common to see the market overrate the poor teams at the bottom of the league table as they have perceived extra motivation to fight off relegation. I usually tend to play against this market overreaction and thus Wolves is the only bettable side in this matchup.

The injury situation at Wolves left them struggling to piece together an attack in the last month. They remain without top creator and dribbler Pedro Neto, but Wolves now have both Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha fit to start for this match after Cunha came off the bench in Wolves' 1-0 defeat to Bournemouth in the midweek and Hee-chan started.

The underlying numbers for Wolves never suggested they were actually a top half team, despite their excellent patch of form in February and March that vaulted them as high as eighth in the PL table. Wolves should have all three of their best midfielders fit for this match with Jean-Ricner Bellegarde back in training this week. He may only be fit enough to play off the bench, but Wolves also have their first choice midfielders Mario Lemina and Joao Gomes fit enough to start on Wednesday.

Despite the game to game fluctuation, their underlying numbers have been generally pretty consistent across the aggregates this year. If you take only 11-on-11 minutes this year, Wolves had a -0.31 xG difference per 90 minutes from the start of the season through Christmas. Since 2024 began, their numbers are roughly the same at -0.35 xG difference per 90. It's below average performances overall, but still a clear tier above their Saturday opponent.

Luton Town's defense is allowing 2.35 xGA per 90 minutes in the second half of the season. It's not all that much better than the first half of the year, when they benefitted from poor finishing variance by their opponents and some excellent goalkeeping to stay competitive in matches. The dam has broken for Rob Edwards' defense in the second half and the goals have continued to pour in against Luton.

West Ham have the third-worst defense by goals allowed per match in the second half of the year at 2.16. Luton and Sheffield United are an entire tier worse at 2.47 and 2.74, respectively. The only reason Luton is above Sheffield United is their better goalkeeper because Luton actually concede the greater quantity and quality of chances to opponents.

Given the injury situation in the Luton defense, there's no real way for Edwards to schematically plan around this. Luton still excel in attacking set pieces. They're an effective crossing team and have scored plenty of goals. It's not all bad for Luton Town in their attempt to pull off this upset against Wolves and against the rest of the Premier League this season, but Luton Town are more than half goal worse by both xG and actual goal difference than Wolves.

Luton will be a popular underdog pick given Wolves poor form entering this match and the perceived significant motivation edge for Luton Town as they attempt to fight off relegation. Wolves should be closer to -150 and you're able to buy them at a discount because of the must win tax placed on Luton here.

Manchester United looks to make it two wins in a row when it hosts Burnley at Old Trafford.

It's never a dull moment in Manchester, as United was down, 2-1, in the second half against Sheffield United on Wednesday before roaring back to win, 4-2.

Erik ten Hag is not only battling for his job but also for sixth place in the table, as Manchester United owns a three-point lead over Newcastle. A win here is vital if it wants to maintain its Europa League spot.

With its win over Sheffield United last weekend, Burnley is still very much alive to avoid relegation, as it sits only three points behind Nottingham Forest. It's been tough times for Vincent Kompany, but his team's underlying performances may give it value.

Manchester United's performance against Sheffield United was an improvement, but there are still some glaring fatal flaws that even a team like Burnley can exploit.

United tried at various times to build out of the back against Sheffield United, which in large parts of the match, were playing very passively.

However, the first goal the Red Devils conceded came when the Blades decided to press them from a goal-kick situation, leading to an errant pass by Andre Onana and an easy goal.

The problem that exists for Manchester United right now is it has to do one of two things because of injuries.

It has to play out of the back and try to control matches with a Harry Maguire and Casemiro center-back pairing, which is not its strong suit.

It has to play the ball long and get into up-and-down transitional matches.

Neither are great options at the moment. United often gets caught in between two different tactical approaches, which leads to mistakes and easy chances for the opponent.

The out-of-possession pressing structure is completely flawed as well and still hasn't changed in months.

The Red Devils pressing with only their attackers and not having their fullbacks or center backs come to aid in the press allows teams that can build up to play right through them and make runs at their back line.

In 2024, Manchester United has kept one clean sheet in the Premier League. It's held only two opponents under one expected goal, and it's conceding 2.27 xG per 90 minutes.

So, yes — even Burnley can create chances against United.

The performances for Burnley have improved toward the end of the season, and it's because Kompany has become more versatile in his tactical approach.

During the first part of the season, Burnley was still playing its possession-dominant, build-out-of-the-back, high-pressing style from the Championship, which wasn't working against the elite competition in the Premier League.

So, he switched his team to a 4-4-2 and had it play more passively and in a better defensive structure. But that also didn't work because the team was set up to play a certain way coming into the season.

Now that Burnley has spent some time playing in a 4-4-2 while still being a team that builds out of the back team in certain matches, it's starting to play much better.

In 11-on-11 situations since the beginning of March (Burnley has had two matches ruined by red cards), the Clarets own an xGD per 90 minutes mark of just -0.15. That's better than teams like Aston Villa, Everton and even Manchester United, which has a -0.92 xGD over that same period.

One of the reasons why they've improved is because of a change at goalkeeper. James Trafford is more of a ball-playing goalkeeper and was not bought in to be an elite shot-stopper.

Arijanet Muric was Burnley's No. 1 in the Championship last year, but management chose Trafford to begin the season.

However, Muric has played the last six matches and has been significantly better, which is why Burnley has seen an uptick in its performances.

Manchester United hasn't found a way to control matches against weaker opponents for a full 90 minutes.

It controlled things at times against Coventry and Sheffield, but the minute those weaker teams start to be more aggressive out of possession and press United, it either leads to mistakes in build or creates a back-and-forth transitional match, which always gives the underdog a chance at an upset because United has been so bad defending in transition.

With all of the injuries Manchester United is dealing with and how poor it's been against bottom-of-the-barrel teams recently, Burnley is absolutely live for an upset here — especially considering its ability to press out of possession and build out of the back against United's flawed press.

Manchester United vs. Burnley
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET

Can Burnley pull off the great escape and stay up? Possibly, but they will need results to go their way elsewhere. I would rather bet them match by match, which is what I am doing here.

I sensed a switch in the Clarets a few weeks ago and count myself unlucky not to have cashed more tickets than I have on them. Late, late goals and unforced, crazy errors have cost them, but it clicked last time out when they thumped Sheffield United 4-1 on the road.

Vincent Kompany has made some bold decisions and implemented some basic changes, which have had a positive impact. This is certainly enough to give them a big chance here against a Manchester United side that simply cannot defend.

The Red Devils have one win from their last seven games in all competitions, a very hard-fought 4-2 win over Sheffield United, who twice took the lead on Wednesday night. They have conceded 17 goals across those seven fixtures, which is absolutely shocking, with only the Blades allowing more than their average of 17.7 shots per game over the whole season.

Burnley’s improvement has seen them lose just one of their last seven league games, scoring 12 goals in the process. They fight for their lives at the bottom of the table. For United, I wonder how much they will want this clash.

The top four is out of reach, and they look likely to claim a lesser-ranked European qualifying position. At the end of the season, they also have an FA Cup final against their city neighbors to look forward to.

Then there is manager Erik ten Hag. To me, he looks like a man who knows he is on borrowed time, likely to get the sack in the summer regardless of what he does over the remaining games.

There is not enough upside for me to bet Burnley on the Moneyline, but I think backing them on a +1 Asian Handicap at +105 is a great play. This is mainly because I can’t see the visitors failing to score against a Manchester United side that can’t keep a clean sheet.

If Burnley score one, then United must score three for us to lose. A one-goal defeat gets us a full refund on our stake.

EPL Best Bet: Burnley +1 Asian Handicap at +105.