The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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RDTrains
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 12050
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Do the numbers add up?
An in-depth look at how overreaction inflated the 49ers-Falcons point spread.
JANUARY 16, 2013
Beyond The Bets
If the San Francisco 49ers were hosting the Seattle Seahawks in this week’s NFC Championship Game, there’s not a chance the spread would be in double digits.
And yet, based on the 49ers-Falcons point spread, that should be the case.
When the two teams met at Candlestick Park in Week 7, the Niners were favored by 7.5, and that was before the Seahawks became such a popular late-season team amongst the betting community. Given that Seattle was a 2.5-point home favorite in the Week 16 rematch, we can reasonably assume that San Francisco would be no more than a 4- or 5-point favorite if these rivals met this week in the NFC title game.
For argument’s sake, let’s assume the number would be 49ers -6.
Now, using that spread along with the fact that the Atlanta Falcons were 2.5-point home favorites over the Seahawks in last week’s NFC Divisional Round, let’s work backwards to see if this point spread adds up.
Seahawks at 49ers: San Francisco -6
Seahawks vs. 49ers, neutral field: San Francisco -3
Seahawks at Falcons: Atlanta -2.5
Seahawks vs. Falcons, neutral field: Seattle -1
So, if we can assume the 49ers are considered 3 points better than the Seahawks on a neutral field, and the Seahawks are 1 point better than the Falcons on a neutral field, that’d mean the 49ers are 4 points better than the Falcons on a neutral field.
It’s as if Atlanta’s home-field advantage isn’t even factored into the line.
We’ve reached the point in the season where bettors—more than ever—go entirely off what they saw most recently. And here’s what we saw last week.
Colin Kaepernick ran wild on the Green Bay defense.
The Falcons had a second-half collapse against Seattle that nearly cost them the game.
Is that all that matters? Hell no. But when it comes to public betting, apparently so. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that 75 percent of bets at Bovada are on the Niners. SportsInsights tells us the number is more around 70 percent. We have trolls like this from the San Francisco Chronicle saying Sunday’s game is a “mere formality” and that the Falcons will get “exposed.”
Atlanta is catching more points in a conference championship game than any No. 1 seed in known point spread history, but are we forgetting the fact that the Falcons are, ya know, a pretty good team in the Georgia Dome?
Combining regular season and the playoffs, Matt Ryan is 34-6 in home starts in his career. His .850 winning percentage currently ranks second best among quarterbacks whose careers began in the Super Bowl era.
The only quarterback better: Tom Brady of the Patriots (86-15, .851).
You’re giving a guy with an .850 career winning percentage at home more than a field goal in a conference championship game.
It might not work out for you if you bet Atlanta +4. If Kaepernick gets loose like he did against the Packers, shoot, the game could get ugly in a hurry against a suspect Falcons’ defense.
But the evidence seems to say that there’s all kinds of line value on the home underdog in this spot.
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01-17-13 09:54 PM |
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