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Monday Night Football: Giants at Redskins
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (2.5, 50)
With a pair of victories over division rivals, the Washington Redskins kept alive their slim hopes for a trip to the playoffs. They try for a third straight win over an NFC East rival on Monday night when they host the division-leading New York Giants. Washington appeared to be far out of the playoff picture after a string of three straight losses that began with a 27-23 road setback against the Giants in Week 7. But after their bye week, the Redskins manhandled the Philadelphia Eagles and jumped out to a huge lead in Dallas on Thanksgiving before holding on for a 38-31 triumph over the Cowboys. With star rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III at the helm, Washington is just one game behind Seattle for the second wild card in the conference but also has Tampa Bay and Minnesota in its way.
New York avoided a major downward spiral last Sunday night, when it posted a convincing 38-10 home victory over the surging Green Bay Packers. Prior to the win, the Giants suffered losses at home to Pittsburgh and in Cincinnati. New York, which is two games ahead of both Washington and Dallas in the division, ranks fourth in the NFC but trails San Francisco by 1 1/2 games for second place and a first-round bye in the playoffs.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Giants -2.5, O/U 50
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with partly cloudy conditions. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 4 mph.
ABOUT THE GIANTS (7-4): Quarterback Eli Manning owns a 7-2 record in his last nine starts against Washington. In his only previous Monday night meeting with the Redskins on Dec. 21, 2009, Manning threw three touchdown passes without an interception. Not everything that came out of Sunday's win over the Packers was good as running back Andre Brown suffered a broken leg and is out for the remainder of the season. David Wilson could see more playing time in place of Brown, who is second in the NFC with eight rushing touchdowns.
ABOUT THE REDSKINS (5-6): Griffin performed well in his first career game against the Giants, completing 20 of 28 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns while running for 89 yards on nine carries. Griffin was even better in his next two divisional games as he threw four TD passes against both the Eagles and Cowboys, becoming the first rookie in league history to do have at least four scoring strikes in consecutive games. Running back Alfred Morris is second among rookies with 982 yards. Washington is allowing an average of 301.4 passing yards, the second-worst mark in the NFL.
TRENDS:
* Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC East foes.
* Under is 6-1 in Giants’ last seven road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Redskins’ last five games overall.
* Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Giants have won 10 of the last 13 meetings between the teams but were swept in the season series in 2011.
2. Washington is second in the league with an average of 162.9 rushing yards.
3. With three TD passes against Green Bay, Manning became the first Giant with 200 career scoring tosses.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-03-12 04:15 AM |
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Tale of the tape: Giants at Redskins
Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s NFC East showdown between the New York Giants and Washington Redskins.
Offense
Eli Manning owns a 7-2 record in his last nine starts against Washington. In his only previous Monday night meeting with the Redskins on Dec. 21, 2009, Manning threw three touchdown passes without an interception. Running back Andre Brown suffered a broken leg last week and is out for the remainder of the season. David Wilson should see more playing time in place of Brown, who is second in the NFC with eight rushing touchdowns. Ahmad Bradshaw is listed as probable with a foot issue and should also see some touches in the backfield.
Robert Griffin III performed well in his first career game against the Giants, completing 20 of 28 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns while running for 89 yards on nine carries. Running back Alfred Morris is second among rookies with 982 yards on the ground and leads a rushing attack that ranks second in the
league with an average of 162.9 yards per game.
Edge: Redskins
Defense
Back in Week 7, Griffin mastered the Giants defense leading Washington to 480 total yards — the most Big Blue has allowed this season. This time, New York may have to stop him without S Kenny Phillips and possibly DE Jason Pierre-Paul. Phillips is listed as doubtful and Pierre-Paul is listed as questionable after missing practice for a second straight day on Saturday with a back problem.
Washington has buckled under the late-game pressure this season and ranks dead last in fourth-quarter defense, giving up an average of 10.5 points in the final 15 minutes. The Redskins, who allow 11.7 points per first half, have softened for more than two touchdowns in the second half of games. Washington is yielding an average of 301.4 passing yards, the second-worst mark in the NFL.
Edge: Giants
Special teams
The Giants have one of the most reliable kickers in the league in Lawrence Tynes, who ranks among the leaders in nearly every statistical category this season. New York has failed to return a kick or punt for a TD this season, but David Wilson has a respectable 25.3 kick return average.
Mike Shanahan recently said he and his coaching staff will “take a hard look,” at struggling punt/kick returner Brandon Banks’ decision making. A year after averaging 9.1 yards per punt return, Banks is averaging 6.8-yards per attempt this season (24th in the NFL), and 24.1 yards per kick return (23rd in the league).
Edge: Giants
Word on the street
“I’d say that he’s more a down-the-field passer than I think that people expected him to be. He’s got good poise in the pocket and he can also extend the play and look to get the ball down the field, not just the runner that everybody knew that he was coming out.” - Giants LB Mathias Kiwanuka on RG3.
"We had five receivers last week, (in win against Dallas), that played at a different level than they have all year. Five receivers not on the starting roster a year ago...We've played better collectively as a team." – Redskins coach Mike Shanahan on the evolution of his WR corps.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-03-12 04:21 AM |
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Raiders Host Broncos In AFC West Battle On Thursday
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/06/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Broncos -10, O/U 50½
Television: NFL Network
Denver Broncos: With the AFC West Division title already wrapped up, Denver (9-3 straight-up, 7-4-1 against the spread) sets its sights on securing one of the top two records in the conference to earn a first-round bye. The Broncos clinched the division crown with a 31-23 thumping of the Buccaneers on Sunday, their seventh consecutive victory that just covered the 7½-point spread. Quarterback Peyton Manning threw three touchdown passes in the contest, two to wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, and linebacker Von Miller all but sealed the triumph with a third-quarter interception return for a TD. Denver backers are 5-1-1 ATS during the seven-game winning streak, and "over" bettors have cashed in six of the Broncos' last eight trips to the gridiron. The Raiders and Broncos met Week 4 in the Mile High City, and Denver coasted to an easy 37-6 win as 6½-point favorites. The Broncos have won seven of their last nine in Oakland.
Oakland Raiders: Another dismal season for the Raiders (3-9 SU, 3-8-1 ATS) finds the home team just one game out of the division cellar and in the throes of a five-game losing skid. The latest setback came at home on Sunday when the Browns held on for a 20-17 decision that "pushed" a 3-point spread. The Black & Silver rank near the bottom of the league in several defensive categories, including total yardage (29th) and scoring, where the Raiders are dead-last in allowing 31.3 points per game. Starting QB Carson Palmer is seventh in the league with over 3,500 yards passing, a product of Oakland playing from behind so often and having an anemic rushing attack. The Raiders could get running back Darren McFadden back for Thursday's contest after he has missed the last four games with an ankle injury (click to check updated NFL injury report). Oakland's last three games have stayed below the total, but four of the last five in this series played at The Coliseum have gone "over" the number.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-07-12 01:31 AM |
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NFL
Long Sheet
Week 14
Thursday, December 6
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DENVER (9 - 3) at OAKLAND (3 - 9) - 12/6/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 43-69 ATS (-32.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 14
Broncos (9-3) @ Raiders (3-9)—Oakland lost last five games (0-5 vs spread), allowing 37.8 ppg; they’re 1-3 as home underdog this year, 9-14-1 since ’08. Denver won last seven games (5-2 vs spread), scoring 30+ points six times, with road wins by 11-8-22-8 points; they’re 2-1 as road favorites this year, 6-4 since 2009. Fox’s defense is creating shorter fields for his offense; eight of last 11 Denver TD’s were on drives of less than 60 yards. Broncos (-6.5) crushed Raiders 37-6 in Week 4, outrushing Oakland 165-56 (TY 503-237)- they were 10-16 on 3rd down, Oakland 1-12. Manning was 30-39/338 passing. Denver won three of last four visits here, but haven’t swept Raiders since ’06. Eight of last 10 series games were decided by 14+ points. AFC West home teams are 3-5 vs spread in division games; home dogs are 1-2. Six of last eight Denver games, five of last seven Bronco games went over the total. Note: Raiders' coach Allen has been away from team this week, due to the death of his father.
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NFL
Week 14
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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 6
8:20 PM
DENVER vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
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NFL
Thursday, December 6
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Thursday Night Football: Broncos at Raiders
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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+10.5, 48)
With a division title already in their pocket, the Denver Broncos still have a first-round bye in their sights as they prepare for Thursday night's road game against the AFC West-rival Oakland Raiders in the Week 14 opener. Denver secured its 12th division crown with a 31-23 home triumph over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. It was the seventh consecutive victory for the Broncos, who have repeated as AFC West champions for the first time since 1986-87.
With four contests remaining, Denver is tied for the second seed in the conference with the AFC East champion New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens, who all are two games behind the top-seeded Houston Texans. The Broncos manhandled the Raiders in Week 4 as Peyton Manning threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns while Willis McGahee rushed for 112 yards and a score. Oakland enters the rematch hoping to end its losing streak, which reached five games with a 20-17 setback against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. The Raiders have allowed an average of 37.8 points during their slide.
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.
LINE: Denver opened as high as a 12-point favorite and has been bet down to as low as -10. The total has moved from 49.5 to 48.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds are expected to blow west at 5 mph.
CONSENSUS: Covers Consensus is siding with the Broncos, with 54 percent on Denver. As for the total, 51 percent of consensus picks are on the under.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (9-3, 6-6 ATS): Executive Vice President of Football Operations John Elway was elated to acquire Manning last offseason. The former Broncos superstar quarterback has watched Manning pass him on two lists in the last two weeks. After moving past Elway for second place on the NFL's all-time list for victories by a starting QB, Manning set the franchise record for most touchdown passes in a single season on Sunday with three scoring tosses that raised his total to 29. He eclipsed the previous mark shared by Elway and Jake Plummer. The Broncos are not satisfied with winning the division title, a sentiment echoed throughout the locker room following Sunday's win. "That's not our biggest goal," cornerback Champ Bailey said. "It's just one thing out of the way." Coach John Fox added, "It's just a starting point, really."
ABOUT THE RAIDERS (3-9, 3-9 ATS): Oakland's losing streak is its longest since the club dropped six in a row in 2007 under first-year coach Lane Kiffin. Tight end Brandon Myers had 14 receptions Sunday against Cleveland, matching the franchise record set versus Jacksonville on Dec. 21, 1997, by Tim Brown. Myers now has 69 catches on the season, the most by a Raiders tight end since Todd Christensen hauled in 95 passes in 1986. Quarterback Carson Palmer has thrown for 300 yards in seven games this season. It's the most 300-yard performances by an Oakland signal-caller since Rich Gannon had 10 in 2002. Coach Dennis Allen believes RBs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson will be in the lineup Thursday. Allen left the Raiders following Sunday's game to be with his father, who is dealing with a serious medical issue, but is expected to rejoin the team Wednesday.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Oakland.
* Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Fox is the second coach in NFL history to inherit a last-place club and guide it to division titles in his first two years.
2. Oakland K Sebastian Janikowski's 51-yard field goal on Sunday was the 40th of his career of at least 50 yards, tying him with Morten Andersen for third place on the all-time list in that category.
3. Janikowski has converted 124 consecutive extra points and is 24-for-26 on field-goal attempts this season. His only two misses were from 64 and 61 yards.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-07-12 01:38 AM |
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Bengals, Cowboys Looking To Stay In NFL Playoff Picture
Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/09/2012 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Bengals -3, O/U 45½
Television: FOX
Dallas Cowboys: Still a solid fade against the NFL odds, the Cowboys (6-6 straight-up, 4-8 against the spread) have nonetheless climbed back into the NFC East title hunt with three wins in their last four games. The latest came this past Sunday against the Eagles, who have been the victims in two of Dallas' three wins in the last month. Quarterback Tony Romo helped rally the 'Boys with two touchdown passes in a 21-point fourth quarter to help them to a 38-33 win as 10½-point home favorites. It was the third straight contest that Dallas failed to cover the spread and fifth in the last six games. The Cowboys rank eighth in the league in total offense (379.1 yards per game) and a middling 15th in scoring (23.3 ppg) while the defensive unit is 11th and 21st in those two columns. Dallas won the most recent meeting with the Bengals in 2008, a 31-22 decision in the Lone Star State as 16-point chalk.
Cincinnati Bengals: A fourth consecutive win has the Bengals (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) tied with Pittsburgh for second in the AFC North, two games behind the front-running Baltimore Ravens. Cincinnati overcame three turnovers in San Diego last week and rallied back with 10 fourth-quarter points to slip past the Chargers, 20-13. The victory also marked the Bengals' fourth straight cover and fourth consecutive "under." Defense has been a big factor during the winning streak, allowing just 42 points (10.5 points per game) during the stretch compared to the team's season average of 21.7 ppg. The stop unit ranks eighth overall (331.3 ypg) and 11th in both passing (221.5 ypg) and rushing (110.3 ypg). Six of the last eight meetings between Dallas and Cincinnati have exceeded the total, but "under" trends are heavy for this year's clash. Seven of the last nine road games for the Cowboys have fallen short of the total while four of the Bengals' last five at home have finished below the mark.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-09-12 06:32 AM |
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Giants, Saints Both Trying To Rebound From Losses
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/09/2012 at 4:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Giants -4½, O/U 53½
Television: FOX
New Orleans Saints: Postseason hopes took a hit last week for New Orleans (5-7 straight-up, 6-6 against the spread) with a 23-13 loss at Atlanta. The defeat was the second straight for the Saints, who were 3-point road 'dogs and also the second consecutive setback against the odds after dropping a 31-21 decision to the San Francisco 49ers at home the previous week, also as 3-point underdogs. Quarterback Drew Brees was intercepted five times in the loss to the Falcons (seven in the last two games) and saw his NFL record of games with at least one touchdown pass end at 54. New Orleans is 2-4 on the road, 3-3 vs. the spread, and 3-5 when facing NFC squads (4-4 ATS). Four of the Saints' last six games have stayed below the total after they began the season 5-1 "over." Their last two matchups against the Giants have gone past the total, but four of the last five played in East Rutherford have finished "under."
New York Giants: Coming off their 17-16 loss at the Redskins on Monday night, the Giants (7-5 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) need a win Sunday to ensure they stay at least one game ahead of Washington and Dallas in the NFC East title race. New York's third loss in four games was also the third point spread defeat in four games for Giants backers, who were giving up three points to the 'Skins. All four games in this stretch have stayed "under" the total. The Giants are 4-2 at MetLife Stadium this campaign, but they have covered just two of their six home tilts while four of the six failed to reach the total. The Giants have lost their last three meetings with the Saints, also failing to cover the spread in those matchups. New York is 5-2 at home vs. New Orleans since 1994, and four of the last five on this field have stayed below the scoreboard hurdle.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-09-12 06:35 AM |
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Packers, Lions Battle In NFL Sunday Night Football Game
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/09/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Packers -6½, O/U 52½
Television: NBC
Detroit Lions: Four consecutive losses, including the last three at home, have the Lions (4-8 straight-up, 4-7-1 against the spread) in freefall as they head to face their division rivals in Green Bay. Detroit's latest defeat came to Indianapolis as Colts rookie quarterback Andrew Luck tossed two touchdown passes in the final few minutes for a dramatic 35-33 triumph. Luck finished the game with four scoring strikes to offset three picks, and the Colts amassed 372 yards through the air, the second most allowed by the Lions this season. Detroit was favored by a touchdown in the contest, and the 68 combined points sailed well past the total, leaving the Lions 9-3 "over" for the year. One of the defeats during this four-game slide came to the Packers on Nov. 18, a 24-20 decision at Ford Field where the Lions were getting three points. It was Green Bay's third straight win in the series, with all three also ending with Packer backers enjoying a payday.
Green Bay Packers: Coach Mike McCarthy and the Pack (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) rebounded from their road loss to the Giants in Week 12 with a 23-14 home victory over Minnesota last week. Green Bay scored 13 unanswered points in the second half and easily won the time of possession battle with a 17-minute advantage on the clock, thanks in large part to an 11-minute drive in the fourth quarter. It was the Packers' sixth win in the last seven games, with them going 5-2 ATS during that span, and kept them perfect at 3-0 vs. NFC North foes. Bettors will want to keep an eye on the injury report that finds linebacker Clay Matthews questionable and wide receiver Jordy Nelson doubtful for Sunday due to hamstring injuries (click to check updated NFL injury report). Green Bay has won the last 21 home games vs. Detroit, including a victory in the 1994 NFC Wild Card playoffs, and the Packers are 14-5-2 ATS in those contests. Four of the last five meetings at Lambeau Field have finished above the total.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-09-12 06:39 AM |
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Week 14 Tips
December 7, 2012
Four weeks remain in the regular season as three division titles have been clinched so far. The Broncos, Patriots, and Falcons have wrapped up division championships, while the Texans are in the playoffs at 11-1. New England and Houston hook up on Monday night in Foxboro, but there are plenty of teams in the AFC trying to solidify a playoff spot in the coming weeks. We'll start with the battle of the Beltway as Baltimore tries get on track against a hot Washington club.
Ravens at Redskins (-2 ½, 47 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Washington picked up a key victory on Monday night, edging the Giants, 17-16 as short home underdogs for its third consecutive win (all against division opponents). The 'Skins play their third home game in four weeks as the Ravens make the short trip down I-95 for an interconference showdown. Baltimore threw away an opportunity to distance themselves from Pittsburgh in the AFC North race, but the Ravens were tripped up by their rivals.
The Steelers rallied from a 13-3 deficit with Charlie Batch at quarterback to stun the Ravens, 23-20. Baltimore failed to cover as eight-point favorites, dropping to 3-7 ATS the last 10 games and 9-3 SU overall. John Harbaugh's club has won four of the previous five road contests, as three of those victories came by three points. In those five away games, the Ravens have cashed the 'under' four times, while scoring 16 points or fewer on four occasions.
After suffering a three-game losing streak, Mike Shanahan's team has won three straight games to reach the .500 mark at 6-6. In the favorite role, the Redskins own a 1-3 SU/ATS record, including home losses to the Bengals and Panthers. Following a 5-1 start to the 'over' this season, Washington has now cashed the 'under' in five of the last six games.
Chargers at Steelers (-8, 41 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Pittsburgh's chances at a Wild Card berth has been recharged after upsetting Baltimore, but things took a more positive turn when Ben Roethlisberger was cleared to play this Sunday. Roethlisberger sat out the last three games with a shoulder injury, which was suffered in a Week 10 home victory over the Chiefs. The Steelers struggled to put up points with Batch and Byron Leftwich taking over at quarterback, scoring just 47 points in three games.
San Diego is playing out the string right now at 4-8, while head coach Norv Turner and general manager A.J. Smith will be let go at the end of the season. The Bolts have dropped eight of their past 10 games, as the only two victories came over the lowly Chiefs in this stretch. The Chargers covered just three times since a 2-0 start, as one of those ATS wins came with a last-minute touchdown at Denver to cash as 7 ½-point 'dogs in a 30-23 defeat.
The Steelers are listed as a favorite of at least seven points for the second time this season, as Pittsburgh failed to cash as 12 ½-point 'chalk' in the overtime win over Kansas City last month. The 'under' has been the play for Pittsburgh at Heinz Field, hitting in the first five home contests for the Steelers. Since 1983, the Steelers have won 12 of 13 home meetings with the Chargers, as the lone San Diego victory in this span propelled the Bolts to Super Bowl XXIX in the 1994 AFC Championship.
Titans at Colts (-5 ½, 47) - 1:00 PM EST
Indianapolis continues to have a magical season with rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, as the Colts go for their ninth win. The Colts have been the master of winning close games, coming off another miraculous triumph at Detroit last Sunday, rallying from 12 points down in the final four minutes. Indianapolis will go for the season sweep of Tennessee, who squandered a late lead the last time these teams met in Nashville.
The Titans held the Colts to just six points in the first 56 minutes of regulation back in Week 8, but Luck led Indianapolis to the tying touchdown and ultimately the winning touchdown in a 19-13 overtime victory. Bruce Arians' club owns an 8-4 ATS mark, but this is the longest number the Colts are laying all season. The Colts have been involved in plenty of low-scoring games at Lucas Oil Stadium, hitting the 'under' five of six times.
Tennessee continues with the Jake Locker experiment at quarterback, as the former University of Washington standout is just 2-5 in seven starts. The Titans have scored more than 14 points just three times in those seven games, while the defense and special teams combined for three touchdowns in a Week 3 overtime win over the Lions. For what it's worth with Peyton Manning gone, the Titans have lost each of their last four visits to Indianapolis.
Cowboys at Bengals (-3, 45 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
In perhaps the most intriguing matchup on Sunday's card, both Dallas and Cincinnati try to stay alive in their playoff races. The Bengals go for their fourth straight victory following a 3-5 start, which includes three consecutive triumphs in the favorite role. Granted, Cincinnati beat three teams out of playoff contention in Kansas City, Oakland, and San Diego, but the Bengals did start this hot streak with a domination of the defending champion Giants at home.
Marvin Lewis has struggled in the role of a home favorite throughout his career, including a 1-2 ATS record this season. The Bengals' defense has stepped up during this winning streak, allowing 13 points or less in each game, while cashing the 'under' each time. Since the start of last season, Cincinnati has won five of six games against NFC opponents, including a 2-0 record in 2012.
Dallas has failed to cover each of the last three weeks, but the Cowboys are notoriously dreadful as a favorite. Jason Garrett's team pulled out home wins over the Browns and Eagles over the last three weeks, but a loss on Thanksgiving to Washington may cost Dallas a postseason berth. The offense is clicking recently by scoring 31 points or more in three of the last four games, as the 'over' is 3-1 in this span.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-09-12 06:50 AM |
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Total Talk - Week 14
December 8, 2012
Week 13 Recap
The ‘under’ went 9-7 last week and all of the results were never in doubt or at least most of them were. For those bettors taking the ‘under’ in the Seattle-Chicago matchup, we feel for you! The Bears led 14-10 late in the game only to see Seattle take a 17-14 lead in the final minute. Sure enough, Chicago miraculously forced the extra session with a field goal (17-17) and due to the new overtime rules, the ‘Hawks pushed the envelope and scored a touchdown in the extra session for a 23-17 win. The combined 40 points slipped ‘over’ the closing number of 37. On the season, the ‘under’ holds a slight edge at 97-95-1 and the numbers would be more in favor if it wasn’t for so many late-game explosions.
Line Moves
The smart money went 2-2 last week. Since we’re in the final month, weather is starting to come into play and both of the primetime games are expected to get some precipitation. Here are the early line moves of 1 ½ points or more at CRIS:
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay: Line opened 45 ½ and jumped to 48
Miami at San Francisco: Line opened 40 and dropped to 38 ½
Detroit at Green Bay: Line opened 52 ½ and dropped to 50
Houston at New England: Line opened 53 and dropped to 51
Under the Lights
As mentioned above, both of the final two primetime games have already seen their totals drop. Is it do to the expected poor weather or maybe it’s due to the ‘under’ posting a 27-14 (66%) record in games played under the lights this season? A lot of bookmakers have been complaining about the NFL favorites cashing but they’ll never admit how much these totals have helped them stay ahead. Despite the trends and weather, both of these games are still hovering around 50 points but all four teams have the ability to light up the scoreboard.
Detroit at Green Bay: Green Bay stopped Detroit 24-20 at Ford Field two weeks ago and the game never threatened the closing number of 53 ½. The Packers were in a groove offensively midway through the season but they only scored 24, 10 and 23 the last three weeks, which all resulted in ‘under’ tickets. Detroit (8-3-1) has been a solid ‘over’ bet this season, and it seems like its defense is getting much worse. The last two matchups at Lambeau Field watched the Packers notch shootout victories (45-41, 28-26).
Houston at New England: I believe you can argue either ‘over’ or ‘under’ in this matchup. The Texans love to grind the football and probably understand that if they have a shot to win, they’ll need to keep the Patriots’ offense off the field. Houston’s defense is legit but the last time they saw a great quarterback, the unit gave up 42 to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. New England has Tom Brady and they saw their nine-game ‘over’ run come to an end last week against Miami (23-16). The 23 points was tied for the second-lowest scoring output this season by the Pats. These teams have only met three times and all three encounters have gone ‘over’ the number.
Divisional Rematches
Taking the ‘over’ in the second divisional meeting has been a solid investment this season but as I’ve said before, all things balance out in the long run and the results are starting to swing the other way. Before Week 13, the ‘over’ was 10-2 in the rematch games but the ‘under’ came out on top with a 4-2 mark last weekend. When you include Thursday’s outcome between Denver and Oakland, the ‘under’ has now gone 5-2 in the last seven rematch games. Gamblers are looking at five more of these situations on Sunday and what’s intriguing is that the first battle watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 in these games.
Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Colts win a 35-32 shootout over the Lions and the oddsmakers come out with a total of 48 ½ points, which has already dipped to 47 ½. Once again, the opener was inflated and even the current number is too high in my opinion. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight in this series and eight of the last 10. On Oct. 28, the Colts beat the Titans 19-13 in overtime. Indianapolis has seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 at home this season, plus the Titans (4-1) have leaned to the ‘under’ in their last five games.
Chicago at Minnesota: This matchup is a quick turnaround with Chicago beating Minnesota 28-10 two weeks ago at Soldier Field. Even though this game barely stayed ‘under’ the closing number of 38 ½ points, the Bears led 25-3 at the break and pulled off the gas. The rematch will be played indoors and with a higher total (39 ½), which always raises eyebrows. The Vikings are going to face a banged-up Bears defense that has been forcing many turnovers lately, plus they’re suspect against the run. However, not having WR Percy Harvin definitely hurts an offense that has posted 10 and 14 the last two weeks. Make a note that Chicago has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 on the road this season.
Atlanta at Carolina: The Falcons rallied past the Panthers 30-28 in Week 4 and the ‘over’ (48) was an easy winner. Despite that shootout, Atlanta has watched the ‘under’ cash in 67% (8-4) of its games. On the other hand, Carolina has seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight largely because the defense can’t stop anybody and Cam Newton does enough to muster up some points. Atlanta has won five straight against Carolina and we mention that because it has scored 30-plus points in every game during this stretch. For whatever reason, Matt Ryan plays good against the ‘Cats.
Arizona at Seattle: Looking back at Week 1 now, the Seahawks are probably still upset that they lost to the Cardinals, 20-16. Seattle had four shots inside the five-yard line at the end of the game but came up empty and rookie QB Russell Wilson heard the criticism. Fast forward 13 weeks, Wilson and the ‘Hawks are close to making the playoffs while the Cardinals have lost eight straight after starting 4-0. The difference, Seattle has the QB and Arizona doesn’t. The Cards offensive woes have helped the ‘under’ go 9-3. This week’s number (35 ½) is the lowest on the board and arguing for an ‘over’ is tough especially when you look at Seattle’s tendencies too. The Seahawks are 0-3 in the division and they’ve scored 16, 13 and 6 points. Wilson and Seattle have played better but for whatever reason, the NFC West teams have his number, at least they did in the first go ‘round.
Detroit at Green Bay: (See Above)
Fearless Predictions
Week 13 watched the bankroll add another $190 of profit, pushing the season total to $860. We could’ve pulled off the sweep but the Bucs-Broncos total got a late coring boost, which has become a regular occurrence in Tampa Bay games this season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!
Best Over: Chicago-Minnesota 39
Best Under: Arizona-Seattle 35 1/2
Best Team Total: Over 18 Minnesota
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Chicago-Minnesota 30
Over New Orleans-N.Y. Giants 44
Over Atlanta-Carolina 39
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-09-12 06:53 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Vegas Money Moves - Week 14
December 7, 2012
Ben Roethlisberger has missed the past three games and the Steelers line against the Chargers was left off the board until official word came in regarding his injured shoulder. If Big Ben was a go, we we're looking at Steelers -8 ½ and if Charlie Batch had to take over again, we were might have seen Steelers -4.
On Thursday, it was announced that Big Ben would play and Las Vegas sports books quickly posted the Steelers -7 ½ with a total of 41. A few books took immediate action on the Steelers and have bumped the side up to -8.
There was also other news Thursday regarding the Chargers. It seems that San Diego coach Norv Turner's nine lives have finally been used up. Apparently Turner and GM A.J. Smith will be let go at season's end. It's amazing that duo has been able to hang around as long as they have with so many underachieving seasons together.
November has typically been the month that Turner saved his job each year, making a big push for the playoffs and being fortunate that the AFC West was so weak, that a record at .500 or slightly better allowed them to get in. But they were left out last season and after winning their first game in November this season, they proceeded to lose their next four.
The Chargers have lost seven of their last eight games and don't look to be close to breaking that streak anytime soon. Their biggest problem this season has been protecting quarterback Philip Rivers. They have used a make-shift offensive line that rarely gives Rivers time to throw. It won't get any easier with the Steelers pass rush on Sunday.
Here's a look at some of the line movements at Las Vegas sports books for Week 14.
-- The Redskins were posted Sunday at pick 'em at home against the Ravens, but that was before their impressive win against the Giants. The Redskins were re-posted -1 ½ on Tuesday and then bet up to 2 ½.
-- The Browns have won two games in a row and will be favored for the second consecutive week. They opened as 5 ½-point home favorites against the Chiefs and have been bet up to -6 ½.
-- The Colts opened as 4 ½-point home favorites against the Titans and have been bet up to -5.
-- The Jets beat the Cardinals last week thanks to finally benching Mark Sanchez, but Sanchez is back as the starter this week at Jacksonville. The Jets opened as 2 ½-point road favorites and, surprisingly, were bet up to -3 (EVEN).
-- The Bears floundered last week at home against the Seahawks and opened as three-point favorites at Minnesota. Some sports books have gone to -2 ½. William Hill sports books offered a prop on Adrian Peterson reaching 2,000 yards this season with YES getting +175, NO -200. Peterson leads the NFL with 1,446 yards rushing and has four games remaining. Whether he gets the record or not, Peterson's come back has been one of the most impressive recoveries ever seen. Didn't the Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose have the same injury?
-- The Falcons opened 3 ½-point favorites at Carolina and the number hasn't moved. Cam Newton is coming off his best back-to-back games of the season and nearly beat the Falcons the first time around.
-- The Buccaneers opened as 9-point favorites Sunday night over the Eagles, before the Eagles showed some offense in their Sunday night game against the Cowboys. The line was re-posted at -7 and has been bet up to -7 ½.
-- The Bills laying 3-points at home against the Rams hasn't found any takers on either side.
-- The Bengals opened as 2-point home favorites against the Cowboys on Sunday night. After the Cowboys win over the Eagles in the SNF affair, the Bengals were posted at -2 1/2 and then bet up to -3. The Bengals have won and covered four games in a row, and the UNDER has come in all four times as well.
-- The 49ers opened 10-point favorites against the Dolphins and have been bet up -10 ½. The total has been bet up from 38 ½ to 39. Colin Kaepernick makes the 49ers more volatile than the conservative Alex Smith at quarterback. Kaepernick can make the sensational plays, but he's more apt to making mistakes which makes the 49ers a tough team to back any more, or side with the UNDER.
-- The Saints have lost two games in a row and will be traveling to New York to face the Giants this week. The Giants were early six-point favorites before their Monday night loss. They are currently -5.
-- The Seahawks opened as 10 ½-point home favorites against the Cardinals. The Cards will be hoping to avoid their ninth straight loss, but Seattle is not the ideal place to gain confidence as the Seahawks have won and covered all five home games this season.
-- The Packers opened as 7-point home favorites against the Lions and have been bet against, down to -6 ½. The Lions are currently on a four-game losing streak.
-- The big game of the week is Monday night between the 11-1 Texans and 9-3 Patriots. The Patriots opened up as 4 ½-point home favorites and Texans money has dropped the number to 3 ½. The Texans haven't lost on the road this season, but the Patriots have beat their last six opponents by an average of 40-20. The total dropped from 51 ½ to 51, despite the Patriots going OVER the total in nine of their past 10 games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-09-12 06:55 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Tech Trends - Week 14
December 7, 2012
Sunday, Dec. 9 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Ravens cutting it close with seven games decided by 3 points or fewer (Balt. 5-2 SU in those games), and John Harbaugh just 3-4 last seven in once-profitable underdog role. Ravens also "under" 4-1 last five on road. Shanahan has covered 5 of last seven this season. Slight to "under" and Redskins, based on "totals" and recent team trends.
Chiefs have covered three of last four this season after 2-6 spread mark in first half of campaign. K.C. also a surprising "over" 4-1 on road in 2012 after 12-4 "under" mark in 2011. Browns, however, are 11-4-1 vs. line last 16 on board since late 2011. Cleveland also "under" 18-8-1 since Pat Shurmur arrived as coach last season. Slight to Browns and "under," based on extended trends.
Norv 2-6 vs. spread last eight this season, he's also just 1-4 last five in once-profitable dog role. Steelers "under" their last eight at Heinz Field after extended "over" trends at tome the previous decade. "Under" and Steelers, based on "totals" and team trends.
Colts 5-1 SU and vs. line at Lucas Oil Stadium TY. Colts also "under" 9-1-1 last 11 at Lucas Oil. Titans 10-17-1 vs. spread since Mike Munchak took over as coach in 2011 and 3-6 vs. number last 8 away. Colts and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
"Road-in-Jag" trend this season is weakening as home teams have covered last two J'ville games' the visiting side had covered the first nine games. Jets 4-7 last 11 as chalk, also "over" 18-6 on road since 2010. Slight to "over," based on Jets' road "totals" trends.
Bears have now won and covered last six vs. Vikings after 28-10 win at Soldier Field on Nov. 25. Vikings 1-4 SU and vs. line last five in 2012. Bears, based on series trends.
Cam & Co. 1-5 vs. line at home in 2012, and road team is 9-3 against spread in Carolina games this season. Falcons 4-1-1 vs. spread away TY and have won last five vs. Panthers (Atlanta 4-1 vs. line in those games). Falcons, based on team trends.
Birds just 2-10 vs. line this season, while TB 8-3-1 vs. points after Denver result. Andy Reid "under" 5-1 on road this season, although Schiano now "over" 6-1-1 last 8 after Broncos result. Bucs, based on team trends.
Chan is 3-1 as chalk TY after dropping last three spread decisions in role year ago. Chan also "over" 5-1 last six at Orchard Park, and Bills "over" 18-11 last 29 since late 2010. Rams 4-1 vs. line as true visitor TY (not counting London game) and "over" 4-2 away from home. "Over" and Rams, based on "totals" and team trends.
Dallas 4-2 vs. points away TY, but Cowboys also just 9-21-1 against number last 31 on board since late 2010. Cincy streaking vs. number this season, spread win streaks of three and four (currently four in a row after Chargers win). Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.
Sunday, Dec. 9 - All games to start at 4:05 p.m. or 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Harbaugh only 3-3 vs. spread at Candlestick this season after 8-1-1 home mark vs. number a year ago. Off SU loss, Harbaugh 1-1 vs. points TY but was 3-0 in role a year ago. Dolphins no covers last two away after 8-1 mark vs. number previous nine on role. Miami "under" 7-4-1 TY after Patriots on Sunday and "under" 19-8-1 since 2011. "Under," based on "totals" trends.
Saints "over" 8-4 this season and "over" 20-11 last 31 since late 2010. Saints also just 2-3 as dog in 2012. Giants only 2-4 vs. line as host in 2012. "Over," based on "totals" trends.
"Unders" 4-1 last five in series since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle. Cards now 8 SU losses in a row TY after Jets game, but Big Red has covered 2 of last 3 TY. Cards also "under" 9-3 TY and "under" 14-6-1 last 20 overall since mid 2011. Pete Carroll 8-4 vs. line TY and 19-7 last 26 on board overall. Also 5-0 SU and vs. line as host TY and nine straight covers at CenturyLink Field. Seahawks and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
Sunday, Dec. 9 - 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Lions now four SU losses in a row after Indy crusher and losing last three by 4, 3, and 2 points in final seconds. Lions also haven't won SU at Lambeau since Wayne Fontes' NFC finalist team turned the trick in 1991! Lions 1-4 vs. line last five at Lambeau and 6-13 last 19 on board overall since mid 2011. Lions also "over" 31-15-3 since late in 2009 campaign. Packers and "over," based on team, series, and "totals" trends.
Monday, Dec. 10 - 8:35 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Texans 8-4 vs. line TY, 21-9 vs. points since LY, 22-9 last 31 overall. Kubiak 6-2 last 8 as dog. Teams haven't met since last 2009 reg.-season game. Belichick only 2-3 vs. line at home TY and 2-4 last 6 against spread at Foxborough. Belichick also "over" 9-3 TY and 37-13 last 50 since late 2009 despite "under" vs. Miami. Texans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-09-12 06:59 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Sunday, December 9
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BALTIMORE (9 - 3) at WASHINGTON (6 - 6) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 48-81 ATS (-41.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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KANSAS CITY (2 - 10) at CLEVELAND (4 - 8) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN DIEGO (4 - 8) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TENNESSEE (4 - 8) at INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 4) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NY JETS (5 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 10) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CHICAGO (8 - 4) at MINNESOTA (6 - 6) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-28 ATS (-22.8 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (11 - 1) at CAROLINA (3 - 9) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 5-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (6 - 6) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ST LOUIS (5 - 6 - 1) at BUFFALO (5 - 7) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 126-161 ATS (-51.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 126-161 ATS (-51.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
BUFFALO is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DALLAS (6 - 6) at CINCINNATI (7 - 5) - 12/9/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DALLAS is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
CINCINNATI is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MIAMI (5 - 7) at SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 3 - 1) - 12/9/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 7) at NY GIANTS (7 - 5) - 12/9/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ARIZONA (4 - 8) at SEATTLE (7 - 5) - 12/9/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DETROIT (4 - 8) at GREEN BAY (8 - 4) - 12/9/2012, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 147-107 ATS (+29.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Monday, December 10
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HOUSTON (11 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 3) - 12/10/2012, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 151-111 ATS (+28.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-09-12 07:18 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 14
Ravens (9-3) @ Redskins (6-6)—Washington is 3-0 since its bye, beating all three division rivals, running ball for 172.7 ypg; short week for them, coming off physical win over Giants in RGIII’s first MNF appearance. Redskins are 3-3 at home but won three of last four. Last three Baltimore games were decided by a FG, with Ravens scoring only three offensive TD’s on 35 drives; they split pair with Big Ben-less Steelers, beat sliding Chargers in OT, hardly impressive. Baltimore allowed 101.8 rushing yards per game in five post-bye games, after allowing 209.3 ypg in last three pre-bye games- they won three of four series games in once/every four years local rivalry, winning 20-17/17-10 in two visits here, last of which was in ’04; average total in four games was 27.8. NFC East home teams are 4-10 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC North road teams are 8-8. Four of last five Redskin games stayed under total.
Chiefs (2-10) @ Browns (4-8)—Cleveland is 4-3 in last seven games after 0-5 start, winning three of last four at home (wins by 10-1-6 points). Since 2008, they’re 3-8-2 as home favorites (0-0 in ’12). In three post-bye games, Browns allowed 65.7 ypg on ground, so will be up to ex-Brown Quinn to move KC thru air. Going to be tough week for Chiefs (Jovan Belcher’s funeral), as reality sets in about what happened Saturday; they played best game of year the next day, but now go on road where they’re 2-3 as underdogs, losing by 18-28-18-3 points, with win in OT at Superdome in game they trailed 24-6. Like QB Quinn, KC coach Crennel was once canned by Browns; reality is, he’s probably about to be fired by Chiefs, too. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 6-14 vs spread, 3-8 on road; NFC North favorites are 10-13, 6-10 at home. Under is 5-0-1 in last six Cleveland games, 3-1 in last four Chief games.
Chargers (4-8) @ Steelers (7-5)—Last five Pitt games were all decided by 6 or less points, with last three vs divisional rivals; Steelers won emotional game over rival Ravens last week behind 37-year 3rd-string QB Batch. Hard to endorse laying big number with Steelers until Big Ben comes back, but San Diego has now lost four in row, seven of last eight games, as Turner regime plays out string. Bolts are lost last four road games, by 7-1-10-7 points; they’re 1-3 as underdogs this year, 2-6 in last eight games as road dog. Pitt won eight of last nine series games, winning last three by 1-11-10 points. Chargers lost last six visits here by average score of 28-17; last time they won here was in ’94 playoffs. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 6-14 vs spread, 3-8 on road; NFC North favorites are 10-13, 6-10 at home. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Steeler games, but 1-4 in last five Charger road games.
Titans (4-8) @ Colts (8-4)—Indy’s storybook season continued last week, Colts scoring two TD’s in last 2:39 to pull out wild 35-33 win in Detroit, its sixth win in last seven games; they’ve won seven of last eight games vs Titans, nipping them 19-13 in OT (+3.5) in Nashville six weeks ago, scoring first TD of day with 3:24 left to tie game. Colts ran ball for 171 yards, outgained Titans 457-339. Indy is 5-1 at home this year, 2-1 as favorite, with home wins by 3-3-4-3-7 points; this is first time this year they’ve been favored by more than a FG. Tennessee lost last four visits here, with three of four losses by 10+ points; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs this year, with road losses by 28-24-23-5 points (won at Miami/Buffalo). Titans are 2-8 in games where their turnover ratio is worse than +2. AFC South home teams are 2-6 vs spread in divisional games, 1-3 when favored. Under is 4-1-1 in Indy games, 4-1 in titans’ last five games.
Jets (5-7) @ Jaguars (2-10)—Dysfunctional Jets are road favorite despite not knowing which one of their three lousy QB’s will start; they ran ball for 177 yards last week, but struggled to beat a team 7-6; Cardinals were second team in last 50 years to throw 30+ passes and gain less than 75 yards doing it. Jets are 3-2 vs spread when favored this year, 1-0 on road; they’re 2-3 SU on road, winning at Miami/St Louis. Jaguars are 1-5 at home, with all five losses by 17+ points; only games they’ve won, they gave up 17-19 points. Jets scored less than 10 points in three of last five games. This is Jets’ first game on grass since Week 3 (1-1 in ’12). Home side won seven of 10 series games; Jets are 0-3 here, getting outscored by total of 69-3 in last two visits, last of which was in ’06. AFC East favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 3-2 on road. AFC South underdogs are 11-10, 5-4 at home. Three of Jets’ last four road games went over; four of six Jaguar home games stayed under total.
Bears (8-4) @ Vikings (6-6)—Chicago lost three of last four games, Minnesota lost four of last five, so obviously critical game here; Bears (-6.5) drilled Vikings 28-10 at home two weeks ago, their sixth straight series win, converting 11-19 on 3rd down, using turnovers to score TDs on short drives of 34-13 yards in game they led 25-3 at half. Minnesota didn’t score on two of three drives inside red zone, averaged only 3.2 ypa. Four of Bears’ last five series wins were by 14+ points- they won last two visits here, 40-14/17-12. Vikings are 5-1 when they score 21+ points, 1-5 when they don’t; they’re 5-1 at home, with only loss a Thursday game vs Bucs. Minnesota ran ball for 240 yards last week at Lambeau, but turned ball over twice, 7th time in last eight games they had 2+ giveaways. Home teams are 4-4 vs spread in NFC North games, home dogs are 1-1. Chicago’s last four road games went over the total.
Falcons (11-1) @ Panthers (3-9)—If Falcons win #1 seed in NFC, they could get to Super Bowl without playing any more outdoor games after today. Atlanta (-7) snuck past Panthers 30-28 in Week 4, despite scoring only one TD on four red zone drives; they’ve won last five series games, scoring 30+ points in all five- they won 31-10/31-23 in last two visits here. Falcons had three extra days to prepare after finally beating rival Saints last game; they’re 5-1 on road, 2-1-1 as road favorites, winning by 16-24-7-13-1 point, with loss in New Orleans. Carolina lost four of last five games, getting beat at somber Arrowhead last week; they’ve lost last five home games, by 29-4-5-22-6 points. Panthers are 4-3 as underdogs this year, but 1-3 at home. NFC South home underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in divisional games this year. Six of last eight Falcon games stayed under total; three of last four Carolina games went over.
Eagles (3-9) @ Buccaneers (6-6)—Philly (only wins by 1-1-2 points) is playing out string; can’t expect big effort from them here, after playing in primetime last two weeks. Eagles lost eight games in row, allowing 26+ points in last seven, 30+ in last four (gave up 12 TD’s on 29 drives in last three games); they’re 2-4 as a dog this year, 2-2 on road, losing away games by 21-2-15-25-5 points, with only win 17-16 at Cleveland in Week 1. Bucs allowed 26.2 ppg in last five games, losing last two; they’re 3-3 at home this year, 2-1 as home faves, winning home games by 6-28-10 points- they’re 5-0 when allowing less than 21 points. Eagles scored 10.8 ppg in four road games on grass. Teams last met in ’09; Eagles are 2-3 in five visits here, with last one in ’06. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 7-5 vs spread, 6-3 on road; NFC South favorites are 10-8, 6-7 at home. Five of last seven Iggle games, seven of last nine Tampa games went over the total.
Rams (5-6-1) @ Bills (5-7)—St Louis is 4-0-1 in division games, 1-6 outside NFC West; they’re 1-5 away from home, and a dome team playing in western NY in December, but they’re also finding ways to win (three defensive TD’s in last two games, all by Jenkins) and just played rival 49ers tough twice in four weeks (1-0-1). Bills ran ball 46 times last week, passed it only 17, so up to sturdy Ram defense to contain Spiller and make former Ram Fitzpatrick beat them thru air. Buffalo covered four of five tries as a favorite this season; they’ve won five of last six games in seldom-played series, with average total in last five meetings, 57; don’t forget Fisher’s Titans tore Bills’ fans hearts out with Music City Miracle in ’99 playoffs. NFC West underdogs are 12-6 vs spread, 8-5 on road; AFC East favorites are 8-6, 5-4 at home. Five of last six St Louis games, four of last five Buffalo home games went over total.
Cowboys (6-6) @ Bengals (7-5)—Well-coached Bengals (Gruden/Zimmer top coordinators) won/covered last four games, allowing 10.5 ppg (two TDs on last 45 drives); they’re just 3-3 at home, but won 31-13/34-10 in last two at home-- contention has sparked fan interest. Can’t ignore fact that in last four games, just in second half of those games, Dallas has scored 28-23-28-28 points, so they make great adjustments at halftime and put points on board. Pokes are 3-3 SU on road, 2-1 as road dogs, with losses by 20-2-6 points- their defense has fallen off, allowing 142-183 rushing yards last two games, creating few chances for offense. Six of last seven Dallas TDs came on drives of 75+ yards, though defense did chip in with clinching TD at end of Philly game last week. NFC East underdogs are 7-5 vs spread, 6-3 on road. AFC North favorites are 8-9, 4-5 at home. Six of last nine Dallas games went over total; four of last five Bengal games stayed under.
Dolphins (5-7) @ 49ers (8-3-1)—Miami lost four of last five games after promising start, but only one of losses was by more than 7 points (were -4 in turnovers in 37-3 home loss to Titans); Dolphins are 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 20-3-3-5 points. Problem is, they’ve had only one takeaway in last five games (-8), and lost field position by 21-10-10-3 yards in last four games. 49ers got upset in St Louis last week; they’re 3-3 as home favorites this year, winning at Candlestick by 8-42-7-25 points, losing to Giants, tying Rams. After being +28 in turnovers LY, they’re only +5 this year, which is still good- they’ve had field position edge in last six games. Mobile QB Kaepernick has infused run game that gained 123-144-148 yards in his three starts. Miami is 6-5 in seldom-played series, 3-2 here, with last visit in ’04. NFC West favorites are 7-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; AFC East underdogs are 8-7, 5-6 on road. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Miami games, 1-3 last four 49er games.
Saints (5-7) @ Giants (7-5)—Sean Payton was once fired as Giants’ OC, felt he took special delight in pounding them as head coach (won last three meetings, scoring 30-48-49 points), he will be missed here. Saints lost last two weeks to slide out of playoff contention, but have four extra days to prep here, with Giants having played on Monday, NO last Thursday. Saints are 2-4 on road, with losses by 8-1-20-10 points, with wins at Tampa/Oakland. Giants lost three of last four games; they’re 2-4 as home favorites this year, 4-2 SU, winning by 7-14-4-28 points, losing to Cowboys/Steelers. Expect big Blue to pound ball vs defense that allowed 120-144-124 yards on ground last three games. Home side won seven of last eight series games, with Saints losing four of last five visits here. NFC South underdogs are 9-5 vs spread, 9-2 on road; NFC East favorites are 4-13, 3-8 at home. Six of Saints’ last nine games went over; last four Giant games stayed under.
Cardinals (4-8) @ Seahawks (7-5)—Lindley was 10-31/72 yards last week, making him second QB in last 50 years to throw 30+ passes and gain less than 75 yards. Arizona’s lack of competent QB play has turned a 4-0 start into a 4-8 debacle; they’re 3-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 14-7-14-4-1 point. In last three weeks, Cardinals lost games where they were +5/+3 in turnovers, which rarely happens. Seahawks won/covered all five home games; they were underdog in three of them- they’ve got home wins by 20-2-1-10-21 points. Wilson’s first NFL start was 20-16 (-1.5) loss in desert in Week 1, when Seattle scored only 13 points in four red zone drives, and averaged 3.8 ypa. Home side won five of last six series games; Redbirds lost seven of last nine visits here, losing 22-10/13-10 in last two. Underdogs are 6-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games, 2-0-1 on road. Six of last eight Arizona games stayed under total; four of last five Seattle games went over.
Lions (4-8) @ Packers (8-4)—Green Bay had 13-yard edge in field position, snuck past Lions 24-20 (-3.5) in Detroit three weeks ago, its third series win in row and 13th in last 14 tries. Lions lost last 18 visits to Lambeau, though last two years they lost by 2-4 points. Last time Detroit won at Lambeau I was unmarried and had hair (1991). Now I’m bald/divorced. Lions scored 31-33 points last two weeks, lost both games; in second half of last four games, they’ve allowed 21-17-20-21 points, just in 2nd half!!! Detroit is 2-4 SU on road, 2-1 as road dog, losing away games by 8-3-6-10 points. Packers trailed last three games at half, kicking three FGs (no TD’s) on last four red zone drives; they allowed 147-240 rushing yards in last two games, and are 3-3 as home favorites, winning at Lambeau by 13-1-9-14-9 points (lost to 49ers). NFC North favorites are 4-4 vs spread, 3-3 at home. Five of last six Detroit games went over total; four of last five Green Bay games stayed under.
Texans (11-1) @ Patriots (9-3)— Easy to overlook that New England is +24 in turnovers this year (+11 in last four games), a remarkable number; 49ers were +28 LY, and they have chance to beat that. Third week in row on road for Houston, historically a red flag for any team, but Texans are 6-0 on road, with pair of 6-point wins and an OT win at Detroit. Top two teams in AFC square off in possible playoff preview; Texans’ offense is geared towards good weather- they snuck past Bears 13-6 in sloppy night game four weeks ago. Have to wonder about Houston defense after Jaguars/Lions scored 37-31 points in games 2-3 weeks ago, Wes Welker blew out his knee last time teams met, a 34-27 Houston win in season finale few years ago; Patriots won two of three series games, winning 40-7 in only meeting here in ‘06. AFC East favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 11-10, 6-6 on road. Nine of last ten New England games went over total; three of Texans’ last four road games stayed under.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-09-12 07:21 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Sunday, December 9, 2012
Baltimore at Washington, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 12-3 ATS off a SU loss as a home favorite
Washington: 3-13 ATS at home after gaining 175+ rushing yards
Kansas City at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 6-0 Under vs. AFC North opponents
Cleveland: 0-7 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
San Diego at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 6-1 ATS after scoring 14 points or less
Pittsburgh: 1-5 ATS vs. AFC West opponents
Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 1-9 ATS vs. division opponents
Indianapolis: 9-0 Under vs. division opponents
NY Jets at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 13-4 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss
Jacksonville: 9-2 Under off a road loss
Chicago at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 8-28 ATS away in December
Minnesota: 12-1 Over off 3+ division games
Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 29-9 ATS away after allowing 400+ total yards
Carolina: 0-6 ATS playing with same-season revenge
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 1-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
Tampa Bay: 8-1 Over off BB losses
St. Louis at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 11-2 ATS off BB division wins
Buffalo: 15-29 ATS off ATS wins in 3 of their last 4 games
Dallas at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 1-12 ATS off a SU win
Cincinnati: 11-2 ATS off 4+ Unders
Miami at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
Miami: 16-5 Under in road games
San Francisco: 8-1 ATS at home off a road game
New Orleans at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
New Orleans: 9-2 ATS off an Under
NY Giants: 8-2 Under after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Arizona at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 11-24 ATS away off a non-conference game
Seattle: 11-2 ATS in home games
Detroit at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Detroit: 1-8 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Green Bay: 8-1 ATS vs. division opponents
Monday, December 10, 2012
Houston at New England, 8:40 ET
Houston: 8-0 ATS away with a line of +3 to -3
New England: 15-6 Over off 3+ wins
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-09-12 07:24 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves
If you think the shopping malls are busy this time of year, take a look at the odds for Week 14 of the NFL season. Oddsmakers have been frantically juggling numbers this week with early action forcing some notable adjustments.
We talk to Bert Osborne, sportsbook manager at the South Point in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves heading into the weekend.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -9, Move: -7.5
Some online books opened the Bucs as big as 9-point home favorites but early money on the Eagles has dropped that spread just outside of a touchdown. Osborne opened this line at Bucs -7.5 and expects money to come back on Tampa Bay by Sunday.
“This could easily go to -8,” Osborne told Covers. “Besides the sharp guys coming in and pushing it, I don’t know who would bet the Eagles right now.”
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings – Open: +1, Move: +3
Oddsmakers put their faith in Minnesota’s home record, setting the Vikings as slight 1-point home dogs. However, money has been steady on the Bears and has moved this spread to a field goal as of Thursday afternoon.
“I bounced between 2.5 and 3, and right now we’re at -3,” says Osborne. “The money, in straight bets and parlays, is pushing towards Chicago. But the percentage of bets on this one will come in on Saturday and Sunday.”
Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5
Some markets opened this game as a pick’em, but after a big win on Monday Night Football, the betting public is siding with the Redskins and has this line on the verge of a key number. Osborne expects this line to creep to a field goal very soon with early limit plays on Washington.
“They’re on the bandwagon now with the Redskins,” says Osborne. “Ever since that impressive Thanksgiving Day showing in Dallas, people have decided to stay with them. We won’t bother sitting at -2.5 and playing with the money. We’ll go straight to -3.”
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns – Open: -4.5, Move: -7
The Chiefs head to Cleveland just a week removed from tragedy and an emotional win at home Sunday. The early action on this game is fading an emotionally-drained Kansas City, with nothing but Browns bets.
“It’s going to be a big one with both straight bets and the cards,” Osborne says of the split in action. “We took some limit plays at -6 and sit 6.5 but it will tough to push through to -7.”
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +1, Move: +3
We’re not sure if bettors are siding with Mark Sanchez, like Jets coach Rex Ryan, or just fading a terrible Jags team, but the early money is on New York. Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew remains a question mark for Sunday after missing the past six games with a foot injury.
“We’re a little higher on the Jets right now,” says Osborne. “This looks like one everyone will be taking to round out their eight-teamer on Sunday morning.”
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants – Open: -6, Move: -4.5
It seems the public has more faith in the Saints than they do in the Giants for this battle of two-faced teams, dropping the spread to as low as 4.5 at some online shops. Osborne says action has been a two-way street since he opened at -5 but that will change come game day.
“When Sunday comes around, we’ll need the Saints for this one,” he says.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots – Open: -4.5, Move: -3
The sharps grabbed Houston as big as they could get them, taking the spread as low as a field goal at some books. Most Las Vegas spots are dealing the hook at Patriots -3.5 and that has garnered a slight lean for New England action in both straight-up wagers and parlay cards.
“We won’t be going back up to -4 on this one,” says Osborne.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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12-09-12 07:26 AM |
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