let's keep rolling with the reverse fixtures !
GL

Barcelona rallied from 2-1 down in the second half of the first leg of their Champions League against PSG in Paris to take a solid 3-2 advantage back home to Spain ahead of Tuesday's second leg. Neither team had a real ability to control the match and prevent transition opportunities for the other team on Wednesday, but Barcelona were more efficient at executing and turning their best moments into chances and goals.

PSG finished the match with more shots attempted and more touches in the opposition penalty area, and Barcelona's inability to defend out of possession leaves the door plenty open for PSG to play its way back into the tie in the second leg. Barcelona did an excellent job of slowing down Kylian Mbappé in the first leg, but a repeat of that performance could be difficult.

The lack of midfield ball stopping and winning in the open field has left major holes in Barcelona's transition defense in the last few months. If you look at La Liga data, Barcelona are dead last in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed. Once teams progress the ball into Barca's defensive final third, they're highly efficient at turning that into dangerous possession and shots. This isn't really a new problem for Xavi's sides in Europe, either. Last year, Barcelona struggled defensively in transition against Inter Milan, Bayern Munich and Manchester United before crashing out of the Europa League in February.

Barcelona lost Sergio Busquets to Inter Miami and then lost Gavi to injury in the fall and don't have a natural defensive midfielder to properly fill the role. While the return of Frenkie de Jong and Pedri for this tie has helped stabilize them in possession in midfield just in time, neither is a plus defensive midfielder.

It was Pedri's elite passing range that found Raphinha in behind the PSG defense for the equalizing goal in the first leg, and a set piece header from Andreas Christensen that gave Barcelona the edge. When Barcelona came out of half time and tried to sit a little deeper out of possession, that's when PSG found multiple goals to claim the lead. A panicked poor clearance led to the first goal from Ousmané Dembele and an unmarked midfield run from Vitinha broke through the Barcelona defense to put the French side up 2-1.

Barcelona should find plenty of success playing on the break in this match with Raphinha and Lamine Yamal making runs into space and PSG's mediocre counterpress getting routinely exposed. The question is whether Barcelona can replicate their plan to slow down Mbappé, who was in plenty of dangerous areas in the first leg but didn't create much in terms of quality chances.

PSG were quite wasteful in the final third and penalty area in the first leg. They managed 40 touches in the Barcelona penalty area, which resulted in just 1.2 expected goals in total. PSG carried the ball into the box 17 times and passed it into the penalty area another 15 times. Mbappé had three total shots, totaling 0.13 xG. You could look at this two ways. On one hand, PSG exposed just how flawed Barcelona are defensively. On the other hand, PSG's wasteful inefficiency has showed up in Europe at various points of the last couple seasons.

The French side played the first leg without star wing back Achraf Hakimi, who was suspended and will return for the second leg. Hakimi's ability to combine with Mbappé makes PSG even more difficult to defend, and a fit and in-form Dembele is a lot of pace and elite transition ability to expose Barcelona's biggest weaknesses.

PSG have played nine Champions League matches this season, including the first leg. The 40 touches in the opposition box they had in the first leg was the second most they had in any of those nine matches. The only match where PSG had more was a 1-1 draw with Newcastle where they totaled 4.4 xG. If anything, the French side was uncharacteristically inefficient and is likely to produce more chances and maybe even goals in this second leg.

The total closed at 3 for the first leg and flew over comfortably. Even with PSG being inefficient in the final third and penalty area, that match was extremely open and end-to-end. It's hard to see either team being capable enough defensively to shut down the scoring. Barcelona are playing with the lead and at home, but their defense is flawed enough out of possession to leave real concerns about their chances of slowing down PSG.

PSG scored twice in the first leg despite extremely inefficient attacking in the penalty area and a quiet game from Mbappé. Down a goal on the road, PSG will be pushing for goals from the opening kickoff and they're well set up to score in this match.

Major questions remain about PSG's defense as well, but the attack will threaten Barcelona more and more as the game becomes stretched.

Atletico Madrid look to close out things here in the second leg in Germany and get to the semifinals.

Dortmund were pretty poor in the first leg in Spain, which isn't that shocking given how their season has gone. They somehow made it out of the group of death with PSG, Newcastle and AC Milan, but were relatively lucky to do so and have been pretty average in the Bundesliga as well. They are going to need to be much better in build up and at breaking down Atletico's defensive block than they were in the first match.

Atletico Madrid put in a fantastic performance in the first leg and could have very easily been up two or three goals here heading into the second leg. These are scenarios that Diego Simeone lives for with Atletico being able to sit deep and defend a one goal lead. It's been a little over five years since Atletico made it to the Champions League semifinals, but they are in a really good position to get back there.

The fatal flaw of Borussia Dortmund got exposed in the first leg against Atletico Madrid. They are a much better team playing without the ball and in transition, rather than being a team that builds out of the back. They tried to build out of the back in the first half against Atletico, but ended up turning it over in their own half countless times and two of them led to Atletico Madrid's goals for the match.

It's been a real problem under Edin Terzic. They often are indecisive on the ball when they are trying to build out of the back, so either teams are able to win the ball off them or they are forced to play a lot of long balls up the pitch. It was very evident in the first leg that they were never going to be able to build up with a lot of success, so they started to play more direct after the first couple of errors.

The other problem in this match is, what if Atletico sit in their famous low defensive block and dares Dortmund to break them down? Dortmund don't face a lot of teams in the Bundesliga who will play passively and sit in a low block for the entire match. Atletico did sit off after going up 2-0 and Dortmund did absolutely nothing against them. Outside of the Haller goal, which was a pretty fortunate deflection to hit for the finish, Dortmund did not register a shot with an xG rating over 0.10 and six of their 12 shots for the match came from outside the box.

The reason that happened is because the profiles of Dortmund's attackers are built to hit teams in transition, not break down defensive blocks. Now that Sebastien Haller is out until the middle of May, they have nobody that can win aerial duals inside the box, so it's really hard for me to see how they improve off of their first leg performance.

Even though Atletico Madrid pressed Dortmund really effectively in the first leg, I have a really hard time seeing Simeone not reverting back to his roots and having Atletico sit deep in this match.

Atletico have been playing out of a 3-5-2 and dropping five guys into the last line when they are out of possession, but something changed in the second half against Dortmund. When out of possession, Atletico switched to a 4-4-2 with an aim at having more cover defending the wide areas against Dortmund's good ball carrying wingers.

In their 3-1 win over Girona this weekend, Simeone lined his team up in a 4-4-2 to start the match for just the first time this season. Girona did end up creating over two expected goals, but half of that came on a tap in the second minute of the match. Other than that, Atletico limited them to a lot of low quality efforts and did a good job keeping them out of the middle of the pitch.

For the season, Atletico's defense has been incredibly good at keeping teams out of their penalty area. They are a passive team by nature, allowing the second-most final third touches in La Liga, but they are only allowing a 24.1% final third to box entry conversion rate, which is the best mark in Spain. That makes it difficult for teams to play through the middle and has ultimately led them to only allowing 1.05 npxG per 90 minutes.

Atletico Madrid are a team that is built to play with a lead because of their out of possession structure. Diego Simeone has time and time again in these scenarios had his team sit off and play a low defensive block to defend the lead. The switch to a 4-4-2 will allow Atletico to defend the wide areas a little better against Dortmund's wingers, just like they did in the first leg.

Dortmund really don't have the attackers available to breakdown Atletico Madrid's defensive block, which was very evident in the first leg when they only created 0.9 expected goals. Dortmund's a team that is much better playing without the ball and playing in transition, so if we have a repeat of the first leg where Atletico Madrid allow them to control 66% of the possession, then Dortmund are really going to struggle to create chances.

I think it's going to be really hard for Dortmund to put the ball in the back of the net twice

Most bet (tickets) Atletico Madrid-Dortmund props

1. Over 2.5 goals (-165)

2. Dortmund to qualify (+175)

3. Dortmund over 1.5 goals (-120)

4. Both teams to score (Yes -190)

5. Total corners under 9.5 (+110)

Man City and Real Madrid meet at the Etihad with a spot in the semifinals on the line.

Manchester City got a massive boost in their quest to defend their treble from last season, as both Arsenal and Liverpool lost, giving them a two point lead at the top of the table with six matches to play. They were pretty poor defensively in the first leg in Spain and are a little more vulnerable to be knocked out of this competition than most people think.

Real Madrid have a substantial lead at the top of the La Liga table and were able to rotate their lineup on Saturday against Mallorca. This version of Real Madrid is much improved from the one that got hammered by Manchester City in the semifinals last year and the first leg showed us that they are absolutely capable of pulling off the upset here in Manchester.

Manchester City really weren’t that great offensively. They only took 12 shots with only four of them coming inside the penalty area. More than anything, Madrid completely neutralized Erling Haaland, as he only had 18 touches (only four in the penalty area) and just one shot for the match.

Something bad is happening with Manchester City defensively and Pep doesn’t seem to want to make any changes, but they are incredibly vulnerable in transition. Because City build up in a very narrow shape and are pushing Rodri and whoever inverts alongside him farther up the pitch to try and overload the opposing backline, it often leaves them in a 3 v 3 situation and their defenders simply are struggling to stop the opposing attack.

Getting beat in transition time and time again also comes down to the fact that City are not as effective with their counter-pressing as they were last year. Manchester City are ninth in PPDA, 11th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed, and are ninth in long ball completion percentage allowed. If you are going to get yourself into 3 v 3 situations in transition, doing it against Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior, and Bellingham is an absolute nightmare, especially with how good of dribblers and passers Real Madrid have. If Manchester City’s counter-press continues to be average, Real Madrid are going to have moments in transition.

Real Madrid came out in the first half with a little bit of a different approach than we are used to seeing from them. They are not a very good pressing teams and have been much better under Ancelotti by playing more passive out of possession, but they decided to press City right out of the gates and actually forced a lot of mistakes.

Valverde and Camvinga did a masterful job tracking any of City's midfielders who were dropping deep in build up to not allow them to receive the ball easily in the half space, which made it really difficult for Manchester City to control the middle of the pitch. They reverted back to a more passive approach in the second half, mainly because they had a two goal advantage, and even that was successful because all of City's goals were screamers from outside the box.

The Real Madrid defense has vastly improved this season as opposed to previous years because they have better ball stopping midfielders as opposed to playing Kroos and Modric and Rudiger has established himself into one of the better defensive center backs in world football and completely shut down Erling Haaland in the first leg. Since the beginning of January, Real Madrid are only allowing 0.75 npxG per 90 minutes, which shows how much they've improved out of possession and how versatile they can be.

Even though Real Madrid hold a lot of possession in Spain, they are by nature one of the best transition teams in the world. What they were trying to do with their aggressive approach in the first half is trying to win the ball higher up the pitch than normal to release Vinicuis Jr. and Rodrygo with runs off the opponent's back line. With the scoreline being even on aggregate, Real Madrid can come to the Eithad with either approach out of possession and be successful again.

The market seems to think that this is going to be a repeat of last season when Manchester City hammered Real Madrid in the second leg. That was a Manchester City team that was elite out of possession and did a way better job of controlling matches than this years version.

Real Madrid are one of the most talented teams in the world and have a front three that not only gave Manchester City a lot of problems in the first leg, but can do the exact same thing here at the Etihad exposing their flaw of defending in transition. Kevin De Bryune is going to be back, but Manchester City are most likely going to be without Kyle Walker and John Stones, who are two incredibly crucial players on their back line.

One week ago, Arsenal entered their Champions League tie as the clear favorite to advance against Bayern Munich in the public eye and in the betting markets. Arsenal also led the Premier League table with seven matches to play. A week later, Bayern now have the small edge in this Champions League quarterfinal, returning home to Munich after a 2-2 draw in London on Tuesday. Arsenal followed the Bayern draw with a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa on Sunday in the Premier League, ceding control of the title race to Manchester City — now a -225 favorite to win the EPL again.

Those two losses for Arsenal turn Wednesday's second leg into the biggest match of both clubs' season. As much progress as has been made this year for Mikel Arteta's side, they are in clear danger of ending on a sour note if they don't make the semifinal.

Bayern Munich's streak of 11 consecutive Bundesliga titles officially came to an end on Sunday when Bayer Leverkusen beat Werder Bremen to clinch the club's first ever German title. With Thomas Tuchel set to leave at the end of the season, the Champions League is the only thing Bayern has left to play for. Their entire season hinges on this competition. The stakes couldn't be higher and while Bayern has the experience edge, major questions remain about their defensive solidity.

Bayern Munich used both Thomas Muller and Harry Kane centrally in the first leg to draw in both of Arsenal's center backs and leave the Gunners' fullbacks isolated one-on-one on each wing with Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané. Bayern played extremely direct in the first half of the tie and really flustered Arsenal's usually elite transition defense. The first Bayern goal came from a poor pass at the back and high turnover, but the second goal is a direct result of Sané's elite dribbling ability and close control skills.

Arsenal really found advantages against Bayern's makeshift backline though, and the issues in the back four should persist for Bayern in this matchup. The defense has been considerably worse since Eric Dier and Matthias de Ligt became the starting central pair over Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae. Upamecano has made his fair share of Champions League errors under pressure with the ball so it's no surprise to see him dropped against the Arsenal press, but Dier and de Ligt will also be stretched given Bayern's full back issues. The absence of Alphonso Davies for the second leg means that either defensive liability Raphael Guerriero or recently fit Noussair Mazaroui will start at left back and likely be tasked with marking Bukayo Saka for stretches.

Bayern will not have Kingsley Coman or Gnabry for the second leg either, which limits their wide forward explosiveness. The question is whether or not Bayern can replicate their attacking performance against the best defensive side in Europe. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Mikel Arteta adjust tactically away from home and look to play more out of possession and in transition against this vulnerable Bayern transition defense.

It's a quick turnaround for Arteta's Arsenal, and the second half against Aston Villa was one of the worst halves the Gunners have played in the Premier League all year. Not only were they outscored 2-0 late, but the defense had more holes and the attack struggled to create against Unai Emery's mid-block and counter approach.

Arteta commented on Tuesday that both Saka and Martin Odegaard are not 100% fit and will be tested ahead of the match on Wednesday. I'd be shocked if either didn't start. Arteta is likely just playing up the fatigue angle and trying to conjure up some uncertainty the day before the match. The market took note of Arteta's comments though, as Bayern moved from a small home favorite of +145 on the three-way moneyline down closer to +130 as of Tuesday night.

Arsenal's press requires a ton of energy out of possession and you have to wonder if they have the legs for a third grueling match in eight days here. Bayern were able to rotate many of their first choice because the Bundesliga race is over, while Arsenal are still going full tilt for a PL title.

Despite Bayern's success in transition to create the 2-3 big moments, Arsenal fully were the better side in the first leg. The Gunners had 26 touches in the Bayern box compared to 14 in the reverse, and entered the penalty area 17 times versus just seven for the German side. Arteta made some tactical switches in the second half to better shut down Bayern in transition, and I have a feeling he will set up very defensive and look to play more off ball and in transition for this second leg. It's not all that different from how Xabi Alonso positioned Leverkusen in his home win against Bayern in the league.

The Gunners have the much more reliable defense, and an away match where they can lean on their out of possession skills and threaten Bayern's shaky back line on the break is an ideal spot to back them.

Despite the solid performance at Arsenal in the first leg based on xG, Bayern's Champions League form has still been quite shaky all year and they shouldn't be laying even a quarter goal in this quarterfinal.

Atalanta won the first leg at Anfield in convincing fashion 3-0 and they did it by playing a style out of possession that has become a little bit of ancient history in terms of defensive structures, but they went full man to man across the pitch and caused Liverpool problem after problem.

Liverpool have had issues lately defending in transition, which has been a problem that Van Dijk and Konate have covered up for most of the season, but not recently.

This is a unique scenario for Liverpool being 3-0 on aggregate and going on the road. With Liverpool being in a heated title race and heading to Fulham on Sunday, there is a chance that we see them concede the Europa League and play a rotated squad. Also, beating a man to man structure requires individual players to beat their man. Atalanta with a three goal lead may opt for a more passive approach, but even if they do that they are one of the better defensive teams in Italy, allowing only 0.91 npxG per 90 minutes.

If they do opt for a more passive approach, that is going to leave the door pretty wide open for Liverpool to create a lot of shots for this match. Even in the first leg, Liverpool did create two big scoring chances, but they had a lot of low quality efforts and ended up with 19 shots for the match.

The first leg played out pretty similar to how I think the second leg is going to go. Roma scored early and then dropped into a low defensive block, allowing AC Milan to control a majority of the possession and limiting them to a large number of low quality efforts. If you look at the box score, you’ll see AC Milan attempted 25 shots and created 1.6 expected goals, but none of those 25 chances had an xG rating over 0.15.

Since Jose Mourinho left Roma and De Rossi has taken over, the amount of goals scored in Roma matches has vastly increased, but the amount of chances created and allowed really hasn’t increased that much. Under De Rossi, Roma matches are averaging 3.19 goals, but only 2.63 expected goals. Even when you remove all of the penalties, Roma’s 11 matches under De Rossi only are averaging 2.09 expected goals. The reason for that is because their style of play really hasn’t changed a whole lot from Mourinho. Roma have switched to mainly a 4-3-3, but the defensive principles remain the same. Although they aren’t dropping five guys into the last line of defense they are still maintaing a compact 4-4-2, but they are still a passive team by nature, as was displayed in the first leg.

AC Milan are not the type of offense that is effective at breaking down solid low blocks. They’ve put up good underlying numbers against lesser competition in Serie A, but against some of the top defenses in Italy they are only averaging around 1.25 xG per 90 minutes. They also have drastically out-performed their underlying metrics offensively, scoring 63 goals off of 52.7 expected goals. So, the question is, how are they going to find a way to create big chances against this Roma defensive block? Based on the first leg, it’s most likely going to be a lot of low quality chances.

Bayer Leverkusen won their first ever Bundesliga title with a dominant 5-0 win against Werder Bremen on Sunday. Now, the German champions will chase a treble with wins in the Europa League and DFB-Pokal. Leverkusen were the comfortably better side in the first leg at home (xG 2.3-0.2) against a very passive and very deep West Ham low defensive block.

The situation and tactics will change completely now for the second leg in East London with the Hammers forced to open up and take more chances down two goals. Jarrod Bowen is still not fully fit and may not start for West Ham in this match, while top creator Lucas Paqueta picked up a suspension and will definitely miss this match. To make matters worse for the Hammers against the back three and wing backs set up of Leverkusen, West Ham will be without Emerson Palmieri due to suspension as well.

West Ham’s defense has been an issue in the Premier League all season long and it’s hard to see them keeping Leverkusen out given the German side’s ability to play in transition. The Hammers rank 16th in xG allowed per 90, are second to last in box entries allowed and have allowed the fourth-most total shots.

David Moyes’ system is predicated on playing without the ball, and the center backs have gotten exposed at various points when trying to play on the ball more with a higher defensive line. Leverkusen have shown real tactical versatility this year, most notably in their 3-0 win against Bayern Munich while holding just 39% of the possession.

That performance sets them up well to win this match away from home, even though they don’t need to win the match to advance to the semifinal. West Ham’s attack is considerably less threatening when both Bowen and Paqueta aren’t in the side.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s second half goal brought Marseille back into this quarterfinal tie, and now the French side returns home as a small favorite to win the second leg and a short underdog to turn the tie around and reach the semifinal. There wasn’t much to separate the two sides in the first leg overall. Benfica had 25 touches in the Marseille penalty area, while Marseille totaled 19. Marseille finished with one more shot than their Portuguese opponent, while Benfica held a majority of the possession. The total expected goals was 1.0-0.9, essentially even.

There was little to separate these two sides entering the tie for me, and Marseille’s defense is the differentiator overall. Not only have Benfica proven to be quite vulnerable in defensive transition throughout Europe, but Marseille have the second-best underlying defensive numbers in all of Ligue 1.

Benfica conceded 15.7 expected goals in the Champions League group stage, most of anyone in the competition. The issues continued into the Europa League knockout match against Toulouse in the playoff round and Marseille are excellent at playing on the break. They recently ripped apart Villarreal at home and the market is undervaluing them at home here.