The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Market Moves 4/17
1:05 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles (-115, 8.5)
The Orioles (11-6) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 7-4 as -130 home favorites and then rolling again yesterday 11-3 as -165 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the Twins (6-10) hand the ball to righty Pablo Lopez (1-2, 4.86 ERA) and the Orioles counter with righty Albert Suarez, who is making his 2024 debut after going 0-3 with a 5.12 ERA in 2023. This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops even opening the Twins as a slight -115 road favorite. Sharps have pounced on Baltimore at a cheap price, driving the Orioles to a -115 home favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “pick’em to favorite” or “dog to favorite” line movement on Baltimore. The Orioles are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars, indicating both public and sharp support. The Orioles have a sizable edge at the plate, hitting .259 vs .195 for the Twins. Baltimore has hit 27 homers and scored 100 runs on offense while Minnesota has hit just 15 homers and scored 56 runs. The Orioles have the better pitching staff as well (team ERA 3.77 vs 4.21). Baltimore is 7-4 at home. Minnesota is 5-6 on the road. The Orioles are +25 in run differential. The Twins are -18. Baltimore also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win.
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04-17-24 10:24 PM |
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