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Miller


Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 450

A little help here...

I have 19 active games and can't possibly bet them all. If you like something please let me know. I have to cut this list in half so leave me your strongest plays. Thanks.

NCAA
*********
North Virginia -21 (but not more than -21)
Arkansas -5
Navy -9.5
Colorado St. -10.5
Conneticut -13

NBA
*********
Atlanta +3 & +134
Orlando -3.5
Minnesota -7.5 - Man did they look horrible last night
New Orleans -6
Milwaukee -4
Denver +6
Washington NL

NHL
*********
Colorado +105
NY Islanders -138
Buffalo +240
Minnesota -.5 -143
Nashville +140
Edmonton +128
Pheonix +168

Really appreciate the help

Old Post 11-01-03 05:51 PM
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theqman
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 3601

Been capping for 23 years and have never heard of N. Virginia.
Must side with magic after halloween. GL.

Old Post 11-01-03 06:43 PM
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Miller


Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 450

oops - West Virginia - too much blood in my alcohol system

Old Post 11-01-03 06:48 PM
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vig
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 3534

MILLER

FOOTBALL: NAVY

HOOPS: NEW ORLEANS

PUCKS: ISLANDERS

VIG.

Old Post 11-01-03 06:49 PM
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StatFox Dave
Administrator

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 887

Do you play for same units on all plays?

and what is your winning percentage last 30 days?


Dave

Old Post 11-01-03 06:51 PM
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Miller


Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 450

Dave,

These are all systems in development so I am betting really, really small. The NCAA was 5-2 last week, 2-1 in NBA so far and in hockey there are 2 systems - 1 (all the dog plays) is 14-12 +12.4 units and the other is Drock's chase system which is 20-2 +10 units depending on the lines and the way that you broke up the 2 series losses.

This is the first time I have had so many games. I have been betting 1/2 units until I get my bankroll up then I will increase the wager size.

Old Post 11-01-03 07:03 PM
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Miller


Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 450

Vig.

Thank you. I need the Islanders big time - 3rd game of a chase against them and it's getting costly. Anahiem wouldn't help me out at home - then they get on the road and go on a tear.

Orlando and New Orleans will be the hoops plays and still not sure about the rest of the hockey sched.

Old Post 11-01-03 07:11 PM
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Miller


Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 450

Sorry that was confusing chasing against Anahiem so I need the Islanders big time since this the 3rd game I have bet against Anahiem

Old Post 11-01-03 07:13 PM
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StatFox Dave
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Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 887

Miller

Personally I would stay on that same system of wagering that made me money. Do you have "checkdown list" to reduce the amount of plays per session. Kinda like a template. What foundation due you start with to Handicapp games?


Dave

Old Post 11-01-03 07:28 PM
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Miller


Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 450

Dave

The way these games are selected it is a set base of criteria. I don't have a lot of time to handicap games so this is easy for me. I know I should be using these as starting points and go deeper into handicapping them. That is how I do the NFL I find two systems in harmony, which is usually 4-5 games, and then concentrate my efforts into capping those games -> 15-8 so far.
The criteria below are all taken from different sources, I did not come up with them I am only trying to improve them if I can.
The games I have above are based on:

NCAA
*********
An offensive rush yd advantage of 100+, a better defensive rush yds allowed and they can not be favoured by more than 21 pts

NBA
*********
2 systems:
1). 3rd game in 4 nights, games 2 & 3 are b2b, and game 3 is on the road
2). Is a chase system - play Against any team on a 3+ game road trip

NHL
*********
2 systems:
1). The dog system is an adjusted win% - finding values in the lines. I am going to do a write up after today, just testing something
2). Is a chase system - play Against any team on a 3+ game road trip - same as the NBA - both of these came from Drock

If you have some suggestions I would love to hear them

Old Post 11-01-03 07:57 PM
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Miller


Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 450

Dave not sure if you saw this

Does anyone have any thoughts??

Old Post 11-01-03 09:12 PM
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vig
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 3534

MILLER

HOPEFULLY you were on games that I chose!!

VIG.

Old Post 11-02-03 10:49 AM
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Miller


Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 450

Yes I was - thank you very much!

How the day ended up:

NCAA - 2-2-1
NBA - 5-4 (Denver ML was also a play)
NHL - 2-2-3

Not a great day but I didn't lose my shirt. NY Islanders was really big for me since it was the 3rd game chase against Anahiem. Still had a pretty good week though. The NBA and NHL plays will only get stronger as the effects of the long travel and tough physical grind of the game start to wear on the players.

I will be posting the NHL adjusted win% system, which is all dogs, tonight during the NFL night game. The record so far is 16-14-7 +10.5 units.

Old Post 11-02-03 04:58 PM
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