The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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Rampage
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 1311
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NFL - Colts @ NO
Boy it is hard to hold the wallet on opening night! I am still undecided on this game. Everything all week has me sided with NO +6. I have provided some information below from Dr. Bob Sports. Guy does a pretty good FREE game analysis...
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The Saints were pretty similar to the Super Bowl Champion Colts last season, as they were great on offense (6.0 yards per play) and a bit worse than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed) thanks to a horrible run defense (5.1 ypr). This year’s Saints should be at least as good offensively, as Reggie Bush’s sub-par rushing numbers (3.6 ypr) should be a thing of the past in his second season and Deuce McAllister is likely to have another solid season. Drew Brees had his best season ever because he has better receivers in New Orleans than he had in San Deigo, and I expect another big year from him. The defense could also get better with former Colts’ CB Jason David supplanting a horrible Fred Thomas at the corner spot opposite Mike McKenzie, who is coming off a very good season. The run defense should be better because it can’t possibly be worse, so look for overall improvement from the Saints defense, which makes New Orleans a dangerous team.
Indianapolis was not a great team, but they certainly played great in the post-season thanks to a timely turnaround on defense. Indy was horrible defending the run all season, allowing 5.3 ypr in the regular season, but the Colts stiffened up and allowed just 4.2 ypr in 4 post season games. While credit is given to Bob Sanders, who returned from injury at the start of the playoffs, the real difference was LB Rob Morris, who is a very good run defender. Morris started 9 games (5 in the regular season and 4 in the playoffs) and the Colts allowed a more respectable 4.3 ypr against teams that would combine to average 4.0 ypr against an average defensive team. Losing DT Booger Mc Farland to injury is going to hurt the run defense, but the Colts won’t be as bad in that department this year. While the run defense gets better then pass defense will probably get worse after losing both starting cornerbacks in the off-season. Nick Harper and Jason David both had solid seasons and while the young corners taking their place will probably be about average, I just don’t see the pass defense being as good as it was in 2006 (5.7 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp versus an average defensive team). Overall, I rate the Colts slightly better defensive this season while the offense should be about the same as it was last season, when that unit averaged 5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. Indianapolis was hurt by bad special teams last season, but I think they’ll improve a bit in that regard. Overall, the Colts look about the same as they were last season, but that doesn’t mean that they’re good enough to repeat as Champions since they were not as good as a normal Super Bowl winning team.
My ratings favor the Colts by just 3 points with a total of 51 points and I have no problem leaning with the improving Saints against a Colts’ team that probably isn’t as hungry this season after winning the Super Bowl.
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09-06-07 09:56 PM |
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