Tex , if Volek (Tenn) & Green (KC) start tonight Im looking at a 80 + pass-attempt type shoot-out and if thats the case I think the Overs a decent play .
one stat i see that i like is the titans are 14-5 ATS in the last 19 games off a road loss >14 points. That stat is 2-0 this year (after SD and Minny). I know that the chiefs are not good as a MNF dog, but i think they might be favored in some places now.
dr. bob.................Kansas City 28 TENNESSEE (pick) 24
06:10 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-13 - Stats Matchup
Tennessee remains one of the NFL’s most overrated teams, as they now just 4-8 ATS for the season. The Titans are decent defensively, allowing 5.6 yards per play to teams that average a combined 5.5 yppl on offense, but they 0.5 yppl worse than average on offense (5.0 yppl against teams that allow 5.5 yppl on defense) and that rating is worse when Steve McNair has played. McNair may play this week and running back Chris Brown (976 yards at 4.8 ypr) may not play much this week due to a sprained toe that has limited him in recent weeks (he played well last week after missing two games). I’ll assume the Brown will play and be in his usual good form, but that is still not enough for Tennessee to be favored over a Kansas City team that makes up for their bad defense (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.5 yppl on offense) with an offense that has averaged 6.7 yppl in 7 games since top receiver Eddie Kennison returned to the lineup in week 6. My math model favors Kansas City by 2 points and Tennessee applies to a negative 64-122-1 ATS situation that is based on their bad defensive performance last week. The Titans also apply to a negative 21-48-1 ATS situation that plays against losing teams that are favored at home after consecutive road losses, and Monday night home teams are just 24-45 ATS if they have a win percentage of .333 or lower. Tennessee does qualify in a 223-135-7 ATS statistical profile indicator as long as they are not favored by 3 points or more, but the technical analysis still favors Kansas City
As I learned last night, it's ok to lay off a nationally
televised NFL game sometimes. Especially one has
the potential to be as ugly as this one. Too many
injuries to make any confident predictions.
That being said.......Tennessee ML, but very small.
Just too many ML situations favoring Tennessee
in The FoxSheets.
Tenn is 7-1 ovr last 8 after 2 or more consecutive losses.
Tenn is 5-1 ovr if the line is +3 to -3 this year.
Tenn is 5-1 ovr when playing a team w/losing record this year.
KC is 8-2 ovr last 10 Dec. games
KC is 16-4 ovr when line is +3 to -3 last 20
KC is 10-4 ovr when playing a team with a losing record last 14.
JD is a legend because he is the king of picking MNF. His record this year is 12-2. His bankroll is nearing 10 grand. He not only picks dogs against the spread, he will play big dogs on the moneyline and win.
He has been doing this for several years, so it is not a fluke. He is to this forum on monday nite what EF Hutton was to the stock market. Remember that commercial that said "when EF Hutton speaks, people listen" Ditto for JD.
He is the leader of the band and we are his groupies. Get ready to meet the king. You are in for a pleasant surprise my friend.
Anyone remember in the movie Casino when Ace (De Niro) places a bet and the line moves like 3 points and everyone runs to a payphone to place a bet before their bookie gets the word? JD is the "Ace" of MNF.