My NFL has been horrible this year. I'm mostly a dog
player and it's been a horrible year for dogs. Anyway,
here are my thoughts for tomorrow.

Dog of the Week:
Houston +11.5 over Indy

I'm sorry, I refuse to believe that the oddsmakers are
this dumb. Indy has scored 40+ the past 4 weeks and
30+ the last 6 weeks. They've beaten the hell out of
the books and the oddsmakers are going to figure out
a line sooner or later that Indy won't cover. They are
due for a down game (meaning 25 to 30 points) and
Houston is a tough home team with their biggest home
loss being by a TD in week 1 vs SD. They did lose by
22 to NYJ last week, but led this game at the half and
fell victim to some rough officiating in the 2nd half. I
live in the NY/NJ area and watched this entire game
and it wasn't as bad as the final score. Someone
finally gives Indy a game.

Other Dogs:
Cin +11.5 over NE

Half a fade of NE who also has been on fire as of late,
partly because the Bengals are hot also, but still not
getting respect. Also, think Bengal D will be up for
Dillon.

Sea +7 over Minn

Seattle is fading late, but Minnesota is famous for
choking in big games and late in the season. Don't
understand why this game is much more than a FG.

Oak +7.5 over Atl

Hot and cold Collins is playing well the last 2 weeks
and Atlanta although 9-3 is giving up more points
than they score on average. Had trouble beating
NO and NYG the past couple of weeks then got shut
out by TB last week, but now they are a TD favorite?

NO +7 over Dallas

Wasn't I watching a segment on ESPN a few weeks
ago when they asked if the game has passed Parcells
by. Big D was in turmoil. Owner and Coach were
"disagreeing" about the direction of the team. Now
2 wins later, they have a running game and are a
TD favorite. NO isn't much better and it does depend
which Aaron Brooks shows up, but Testeverde is
Testeverde and I don't understand why this one is
much more than a FG either.

Wash +10 over Phi

Wash has one of the best D's in football and maybe,
just maybe they woke up last week as a team. I know
it was just the Giants with a rookie QB, but they are
at home catching almost double digits on a nationally
televised division game. Don't really love this game,
but since it is the Sunday night game I have to pick
a side and if you can get 10+ points I have to side
with the home dog.

Favorite of the Week:
GB -9.5 over Detroit

I hate laying more than a TD in the NFL, but the lines
are so large this week it seems I don't have a choice.
It's December, it's GB, and the Pack was embarrassed
last week. Detroit beat a bad road team with a rookie
making his first ever start in the NFL last week. GB
wins this one easily in my opinion.

Other Favorites:

Jacksonville -7 over Chicago

Who's playing QB for Chicago this week? Hutchinson??
Yes, they won last week and scored 24 at home vs. a
poor Minn defense. Culpepper threw 3 INT's. Jax defense
won't be as giving. If Jax can score 17 I think they can
cover.

Denver -11 over Miami

I absolutely HATE laying this big a number and Denver
hasn't been playing well the past month, but Miami is
absolutely pathetic. 7 turnovers last week!!!! And a
team from Miami playing at Mile High in December. Let
it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

Moneyline of the Week:

Carolina -300 over St. Louis

Large number, but Chandler at QB for the Rams. Who
at QB? I don't know, but his name isn't Faulk. Rams
not a good road team on grass usually. Carolina a slow
start, but they have been hot the past month. A TD
may be a bit much to lay with a defensive team, but I
don't see Carolina losing this game at home.

Other Moneyline Plays:

Seattle +240 over Minnesota

If this game were played 20 times I believe Seattle
would win more than 33% of the time. This in my eyes
creates value in this line for me. Seattle may or may
not win this game, but I just see value in +240.

Arizona -300 over SF

A TD is too much to lay with a 4-8 team, but they
are playing SF. As per the Rams.......who is the QB
for SF this week?? Who is the RB?? Dennis Green
is finally putting McCown back at QB. Don't know
why he benched him in the 1st place. SF sucks at
home so why would they be any better on the road.
I could see Arizona losing a home game, but I
can't see SF winning a road game.

Pitt -220 over NYJ

I'm a Jets fan, I'd love to see the Jets win this game
if I didn't bet on it. I always HATED the Stewart/Bettis
Steelers. Always seemed they were turning the ball
over, but winning ugly. These Steelers are different
though. They play good football. They seem to play
up to the level of competition. I think they win this
game at home.


Now after I've told you how bad my NFL has been
this year, go out and bet the other way on every one
of these games.

MT, ive repeatedly stated Oakland WILL beat those damn Falcons, Atlanta has played NO ONE to prove they can contend, and Oakland on the other hand has played, beaten, and competed with the "Real Deal."

I will take the pnts for 5 units and ML for 2

GL

Hova

Oh ya, you may wanna lay off that -9.5 on GB, Detroit will keep it closer than you think.

Dont let that spanking in Phi influence your decision...... They are no damn world beaters just because they got blown out and want to prove sumthing.... frankly i dont care. Detroit +10(buying .5) for me!

Hova

Not really in love with any of the favorites this week
because of the big lines, but if you told me to pick
1 favorite I thought would cover it would be GB.

Also forgot to add that I think Indy beating up on
Houston about a month ago adds to Houston's
motivation in this game.

I get the following people. I also need serious sleep!

I use numbers. Emotion is of little use to me.



SU

KC


ATS fades

Fade PIT (Also excellent play SU).

Fade SD

Fade ATL

Fade ARI

Fade GB

I'm too tired to post the lines. Get the best ones.

Bet your house on one of these, it is the in thing these days.

I would say the ATS PIT play. But I do not really know. Maybe just bet the doghouse. WOOF! WOOF!

These work, I just use numbers. They do wane a bit towards the end of a season, most likely because the line gets slightly more accurate.

P.S. Gonna work on the fav thing if I wake up early enough. Do not discount those -11 lines without good reason. You have to remember, they hit about 50%. Nothing below or above the norm.

Actually ended up getting +12 with Houston. Having a
good week so I hammered it for a nickel. If I can win
that I'm throwing it all on the Carolina ML at 4pm.
Maybe parlay Arizona ML with Carolina ML.

Very good days so far. Houston play not for the weak
of heart as it was in doubt near the end. Back with a
full recap after the 4pm games.

Hope i made you bet alil less on them Packers, they are sorry is all i have to say....GL

Hova

yeah. I didn't bet any of the favorites too big. Houston was
the main game. Seattle ATS and Carolina ML 2nd biggest.
NO, GB, Jax, Oak, and Cin ATS all medium as well as
Arizona ML.

Good call on that GB game. Raider game was a story of
turnovers. Hard to predict.

Yes, i was in shock to see those Damn Falcons beating em up like that..... im telling you they SUCK, they will not get anywhere in the post season.

Hova

Tough way to end a good football day. Didn't lose too
much on that Arizona ML, but could have won a LOT
more had they won. Why bother coming back from
28-3 just to tease me like that?

Broke a little over even again. I hate that. lol

Had to make a last ditch trade on SD to pull it off. Sold them at a buck to arb the wager.

Next game. Washington sucks. But I need a better reason...

Dog of the Week: (1-0 +1 unit)
Houston +11.5 over Indy (Winner)

Thought I was dead meat after Colts opened a 14-0
1st Q lead, but then they went flat and didn't score
another TD the entire game.

Other Dogs: (3-1 +1.9 units...1 pending)
Cin +11.5 over NE (Winner)

Backdoor. About time one of those worked in my
favor.

Sea +7 over Minn (Winner)

It's a wonderful feeling to do your homework and
be right on with a game.

Oak +7.5 over Atl (Loser)

Didn't see the game, but it looks like turnovers did
the Raiders in.

NO +7 over Dallas (Winner)

See Seattle game.

Wash +10 over Phi (Pending...line has gone down, I
would only play if you could find 10 somewhere. That
being said, I am a degenerate and would probably
take it at 8 if that's the best line I could find because
it's sooo hard to lay off the Sunday night game.)

Wash has one of the best D's in football and maybe,
just maybe they woke up last week as a team. I know
it was just the Giants with a rookie QB, but they are
at home catching almost double digits on a nationally
televised division game. Don't really love this game,
but since it is the Sunday night game I have to pick
a side and if you can get 10+ points I have to side
with the home dog.

Favorite of the Week: (0-1 -1.1 units)
GB -9.5 over Detroit (Loser)

Pack didn't show up till 2nd half. Ugly weather. Thanks
Hova for backing me off this one a bit.

Other Favorites: (1-1 -.1 units)

Jacksonville -7 over Chicago (Winner)

Again it's nice to be dead right on a game.

Denver -11 over Miami (Loser)

And it sucks to be dead wrong.

Moneyline of the Week: (1-0 +1 unit)

Carolina -300 over St. Louis

Carolina ahead throughout the entire game. If you
played ATS you still won, but you did sweat a little
more.

Other Moneyline Plays: (2-1 +.4 units)

Seattle +240 over Minnesota (Winner)

Took a chance, came away with the win.

Arizona -300 over SF (Loser)

Brutal loss, why bother coming back at all? Toughest
one to swallow today.

Pitt -220 over NYJ (Winner)

Very physical game. Call of the day was Bettis TD
option pass.

Thanks Mtpaid.

I picked up a few shares of Philly at -7.5. $5.30 a share.

I don't know a whole lot about football stats, but Washington is also near last in offense.

Pretty easy trade to get out of as well. People who bet favorites are eternal optimists at TS. lol

I traded my way out of this one MT.

Small profit. I was trying an arb strategy. I did learn a few things, buy at the peak, sell in the valley!

I know, it sounds like I'm selling poppies here, but it looks to be a good trade move...

A profit is a profit and it's always better than a loss.
Turned my computer off for an hour before gametime
so that I wouldn't touch it. 10 points would be nice
now, but anything less would have me nervous right
now.

Very true. Profit is a good thing!

I get a little upset when I do not make enough. lol

I'm trying to get about 25% per month bankroll increase, been hovering at the same point for three weeks. No increase, no loss.

Maybe next week.

I'm real tempted here to trade. LOL!!!

(I got to use that self control thing, better have a smoke and think about it...)

Scored a quick 10% profit!

I quit now MT, I really do...