 |
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Dortmund take a one goal advantage from the first leg into Paris to decide who goes to Wembley for the Champions League final.
PSG were pretty poor for the first 50 minutes of the match before exploding with chances on the Dortmund net, but ultimately they failed to score despite creating those chances. PSG have always prioritized the Champions League over every other competition and failed to win against Bayern Munich in 2020, so they have a fantastic opportunity in front of them at home to get back to the final.
Dortmund played really well in the first leg to get the one goal advantage, but it will be a different story away from home. They have been playing much better down the stretch of the season and are coming off a 5-1 drubbing of Augsburg over the weekend. They lost 2-0 to PSG earlier this season in Paris and will need to replicate their performance from the first leg to get by PSG here and get to the final.
PSG struggled to gain control or create chances in this first half of the first leg. Mbappe was getting isolated and in total for the match only had seven touches in the penalty area with three shots, all being of low quality. They also were having a bit of difficulty building out of the back as Dortmund's counter-pressing was effective at times. As you can see from the pass map below, Dortmund were willing to live with the ball being funneled to the right side of the pitch, but PSG didn't combine with Mbappe at a high rate.
The other thing that was a little concerning for PSG was their out of possession approach. They ended up with only six high turnovers and a PPDA of 10.4, which is worse than their average in Ligue 1 this season. Even if you look at the map of where their high turnovers happened, they are right on the line of what would be considered a high turnover, so it wasn't the best pressing performance from PSG when they did choose to press Dortmund.
For PSG to get by here in the second leg, they have to get back to what they were successful with against Dortmund during their two meetings in the group stage. They have to find ways to play more direct or build up with a faster pace and they have to press Dortmund effectively when they do press them high. The question is, are they going to be able to do that if Dortmund come with a park the bus, play long balls type of tactical plan?
What they did was learn from their previous encounters with PSG and didn’t make the same mistakes. Outside of a couple transition moments, they kept PSG and their rapid pace out of direct attacking scenarios where they were running with numbers at their back line. When they did lose the ball, they either counter pressed effectively or they quickly got back and made sure PSG didn’t outnumber them.
Jadon Sancho was amazing in that first leg and has kind of transformed Dortmund offensively with his ability to play multiple positions, drop deep in build up and be the conductor of their attack. Julian Brandt was someone that was playing this type of role, but Sancho now allows him to be more of an attacking presence and creator. Jadon Sancho had 99 touches overall for the match with 34 of them coming in the middle third of the pitch, which was the second-most on the team.
Dortmund also did a great job of not allowing PSG to deploy their deadly high press, as PSG came out with more of a passive approach after Dortmund were able to play through them a couple of times. However, it would be unwise for Dortmund to take a build out the back approach in the second leg, but rather do what they do best, which is to play in transition.
With the pace that Dortmund have and because of how successful they were with balls in behind PSG's high line, they now have the ability with a one goal lead to play direct rather than try to control the match, so it's actually a pretty good situation for them.
The situation with a one goal lead is actually a really good one for Dortmund. If this was level or they were playing from behind, they are not the best team when the match opens up and they can be exposed in transition.
They did an excellent job learning from their mistakes from the group stage against PSG and didn't allow them to utilize their pace in transition and also didn't make many costly turnovers in their own end that led to easy chances.
Even though Dortmund's underlying numbers overall this season have not been great, I think PSG are way overvalued here at home because they are in a must win scenario.
Dortmund +1.5 -140
|
05-07-24 07:52 AM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Borussia Dortmund booked the first place in June's Champions League final at Wembley Stadium with a stunning 2-0 aggregate upset against Paris Saint-Germain. The two remaining title favorites will face off against one another on Wednesday in Madrid with the score tied at 1-1 as Real Madrid host Bayern Munich. Both clubs will be a significant favorite in the final should they get there, which puts an even bigger premium on this upcoming 90 (or 120) minutes of play.
Bayern trailed 1-0 at halftime in the first leg on Tuesday in Munich, before two goals in quick succession appeared to give them the edge headed into the second leg. As Real Madrid always seem to do, Los Blancos earned a penalty kick, tied the match and now have the considerable edge coming home tied.
Bayern have shown in their tie against Arsenal that they are comfortable defending out of possession and playing on the break in transition, which will be a key for them in this second leg.
The first half of Real Madrid's performance in Munich was a textbook Madrid performance. Carlo Ancelotti's side attempted to press out of the gate — similar to their approach in the first leg against Manchester City in the quarterfinal. It went quite poorly, as Bayern immediately generated a massive chance in behind through Leroy Sané up the left side. Real Madrid remain a very mediocre pressing side, and Ancelotti adjusted in-match to sit a bit deeper and try to force all of Bayern's attacks through the center of the pitch.
Bayern finished the first half with eight attempts at goal, but none of them except the Sané chance were high quality. Real Madrid had their moment of brilliance – a Toni Kronos pass in behind to Vinicius Junior after he deked Kim Min-jae and Real Madrid generated more xG on one shot than Bayern did on eight.
Both teams to me are more comfortable playing in a mid-block defensive approach and looking to break in transition without countering. Real Madrid were extremely cautious in their second leg at home against RB Leipzig to not get beat in transition against Marco Rose's mid-block and counter tactics and Ancelotti could aim for a repeat of this tactic in this tense Champions League second leg.
Real Madrid's defense has made serious improvements as a whole, and it shouldn't be understated that their defense held Bayern Munich to just 0.8 non-penalty xG in Munich in the first leg despite ceding most of the possession. That bodes well for how they'll defend at home in this second leg.
Bayern Munich gave away two goals because of individual errors from Min-jae, but their defensive outlook in the last match was quite solid. Bayern allowed just two shot attempts from open play with an xG rating higher than 0.05. Almost all of Real Madrid's chances came from low quality areas.
For comparison's sake: The first leg of this matchup ended 2-2 with just 46 penalty area touches combined by the two teams. PSG and Dortmund played out a 1-0 first leg in Dortmund despite 63 penalty area touches. Both of these managers – Thomas Tuchel especially — will be happy to cede possession to the opponent. Bayern held Arsenal to just two shots after taking the lead in the quarterfinal second leg, and Munich went to Arsenal and conceded just 1.0 xG, 13 shots and 28 box touches. They have shown a propensity to limit high quality chances, and the defensive move to play Joshua Kimmich at right back, and top ball winner Konrad Laimer at defensive midfielder, has helped the defensive solidity.
The first leg finished with 3.5 expected goals, but half of that came from two penalties that inflated the perception of how open the match really was. We've seen an explosion of goal scoring in the Premier League this season and even in the business end of the Champions League, but neither of these teams are pressing heavily or taking chances in and out of possession to leave their defenses at risk. Tuchel has dialed back his pressing in Germany, Ancelotti knows Real will get exposed if they press too much and the result is a tight contest with longer possessions and fewer high turnovers.
Similar to the quarterfinal against Man City, Real Madrid played out a cagey first leg that had 4+ goals despite the flow of the game suggested a much more lower event match. And similar to that quarterfinal, the total is lined at three for the second leg for this semifinal. Neither team will want to take the chance to lose the tie. This will play out stylistically closer to a cup final
Under 3
|
|
05-08-24 08:08 AM |
|
|
| |
|
