Italian Open Conditions

ITF Court Rating has Rome as a Category 1 tournament, which means it classifies as a “slow” event. However, the same can be said of each of the last couple of tournaments. So, don’t fall into the trap of expecting the same thing here. This week’s tournament will play a lot slower than the Mutua Madrid Open, which was played at altitude and meant much faster conditions. You’ll see higher and slower bounces in Rome, meaning it’ll be easier to return powerful shots. And overall, baseline play and defense will be rewarded here.

Italian Open Women’s Futures

Iga Swiatek To Win (+140 – 2 units): Swiatek was able to win a faster clay-court event last week, and that doesn’t bode well for her peers. Swiatek had never won a title in Madrid before last week, with the altitude making it harder on the Pole to set her feet and hit her world-class groundstrokes. But Swiatek has made some changes to her serve and forehand. She’s now holding at a career-high rate and her process is a little faster from the baseline. Swiatek can no longer be rushed from back there, making her more dangerous in quicker conditions. But this is the slow stuff, where Swiatek has been unbeatable in the past. She likely would have won a third consecutive title in Rome last year, but she had to withdraw in the third set of her quarter-final match against Elena Rybakina. Well, I like the 22-year-old to lift the trophy here again, and I also think she’ll go on to win the French Open. There’s just a large gap between her and everybody else on this surface.

Jasmine Paolini To Reach Final (22-1 – 0.25 units):
I think Paolini has a real shot at winning her quarter, but that bet wasn’t available. So, I’m playing the Italian to reach the final. The reality is that it’s just one more match. So, I can either let it ride or hedge if we get in that position. But overall, I just love Paolini’s athleticism and ability to play defense. And her forehand is hit with a lot of topspin, which is huge at a tournament like this. Paolini also has a ridiculous amount of heart, so I like the idea of betting on her in her home tournament. She’s going to fight like hell here, and she happens to have a good draw. Paolini is in Rybakina’s quarter and I think there’s a decent shot the defending champion gets bounced somewhat early. And even if she doesn’t, Paolini has the game to give her trouble if the Italian can make it to that point.

Italian Open Men’s Futures

Novak Djokovic To Win (+187 – 2 units):

We haven’t seen Djokovic since he lost to Casper Ruud in the Monte Carlo semifinals, and we haven’t seen the very best of the Serbian in 2024. But Djokovic has had almost a month to get his body right, so he should be pretty healthy right now. He’s also the best player in this field, by far. With no Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz, Djokovic really should be able to win this event. And this also happens to be one of Djokovic’s best tournaments. Djokovic usually takes some time to get ramped up in the clay-court season, but he has always had success in Italy. The 24-time Grand Slam champion has won six times in Rome and I like him to lift the trophy again. The only match I’m really worried about is a potential quarter-final showdown with Ruud, but I’m also taking the Norwegian because I think the winner of that match wins the tournament.

Camila Osorio vs. Arantxa Rus – Rome

You don’t hear much about clay-court specialists on the WTA side, but Osorio would definitely qualify. The 22-year-old is a ridiculous 39-15 on clay in her career, despite being 30-38 on other surfaces. But Osorio’s poor play elsewhere generally allows you to get good prices on her on the dirt. And that’s exactly what’s happening here. Rus is going to have a big advantage over Osorio in the power department, but that shouldn’t matter all that much. Osorio is a grinder and knows how to get the job done in slower conditions. Look for her to really dig in and return at a high level here, and don’t be surprised if she dominates points won on longer rallies.

Bet: Osorio ML (-138 – 1.5 units)

Laura Siegemund vs. Maria Lourdes Carle – Rome

Laura Siegemund went through qualifiers without dropping a single set. The German has now won 11 of the 15 matches she has played since the Miami Open, and that stretch includes an 8-3 record on clay. Siegemund has also turned in some impressive performances in that span, as she knocked off Beatriz Haddad Maia at the Billie Jean King Cup and barely lost to Marta Kostyuk in a competitive three-set match in Stuttgart. Overall, I just like the way the veteran is playing right now, so I think this is a very reasonable price to be paying for her to beat Maria Lourdes Carle. Carle has had some tremendous success at the ITF level this year, as she is 17-4 in 21 matches down there. But Carle is just 7-10 in her WTA career, and I don’t think her serve is good enough to get her through this match. In four WTA matches this year, Carle is holding at just 47.2%. And it’s not like that is some major fluke, as she is only holding at 63.8% in ITF matches. She’s just not reliable with the ball on her racquet, and she relies a little too heavily on her return game and baseline play. Well, Siegemund is plenty capable of besting her there.

Bet: Seigemund ML (-137)

Terence Atmane vs. Christopher Eubanks – Rome

Terence Atmane is definitely more comfortable than Christopher Eubanks on clay. But Eubanks’ serve is still going to be the biggest weapon in this match. That makes it hard to imagine a scenario in which the American will get completely blown out here. Eubanks is holding at 87.1% this season, while Atmane is holding at just 65.1%. And the interesting thing about that is that Eubanks’ poor career clay-court hold percentage of 75.0% is still higher. With that in mind, I think it’s safe to expect Eubanks to hang around in this match. And the slower conditions in Rome should actually give Eubanks some break point opportunities. So, I’m not going to overthink this one. I’m taking the 3.5 games with the better player. The surface shouldn’t make this big of a difference.

Bet: Eubanks +3.5 Games (-108 – 1.5 units)

Giulio Zeppieri vs. Matteo Gigante – Rome

I’m rolling with Giulio Zeppieri to win this all-Italian battle in the first round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Gigante has had a really solid season on the Challenger tour, as he is 14-2 and has won two tournaments thus far. But Gigante has never won an ATP-level match, so he’s going to be dealing with a lot of nerves against Zeppieri. Of course, Zeppieri hasn’t had much success at the ATP level himself, but he at least knows what it takes to win. And overall, I just think Zeppieri has a slight edge in weapons here. Zeppieri is a little more proven as a server, and I think his aggressive style of play will make him a difficult opponent for Gigante. And Zeppieri has a booming forehand, so he should win the forehand-to-forehand exchanges between these two lefties. Overall, the difference in experience should give Zeppieri what he needs to get across the finish line.

Bet: Zeppieri ML (-120)

Fabio Fognini vs. Daniel Evans – Rome

For as bad as things have been for Fabio Fognini in 2024, it’s hard not to take a shot on the Italian here. The veteran is capable of finding another level when playing in front of his people, and last year’s run to the Round of 32 showed that he’ll forever be dangerous in this venue. Fognini also happened to get a good opening-round draw, as Daniel Evans is just 19-36 on clay in his career. Evans is also 0-6 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. Evans’ slice backhand just isn’t as impactful on this surface, and his serve and forehand aren’t consistent enough for him to find success off grass/hard courts. With that in mind, Evans will need to be perfect in order to find a way to beat Fognini, who is 236-176 on clay in his career. But Evans’ play in 2024 makes it hard to believe he’ll find another gear. So, Fognini should blast him off the court with his absurd all-court power.

Bet: Fognini ML (-141 – 1.5 units)

Giulio Zeppieri vs. Matteo Gigante – Rome

I’m rolling with Giulio Zeppieri to win this all-Italian battle in the first round of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Gigante has had a really solid season on the Challenger tour, as he is 14-2 and has won two tournaments thus far. But Gigante has never won an ATP-level match, so he’s going to be dealing with a lot of nerves against Zeppieri. Of course, Zeppieri hasn’t had much success at the ATP level himself, but he at least knows what it takes to win. And overall, I just think Zeppieri has a slight edge in weapons here. Zeppieri is a little more proven as a server, and I think his aggressive style of play will make him a difficult opponent for Gigante. And Zeppieri has a booming forehand, so he should win the forehand-to-forehand exchanges between these two lefties. Overall, the difference in experience should give Zeppieri what he needs to get across the finish line.

Bet: Zeppieri ML (-120)

Fabio Fognini vs. Daniel Evans – Rome

For as bad as things have been for Fabio Fognini in 2024, it’s hard not to take a shot on the Italian here. The veteran is capable of finding another level when playing in front of his people, and last year’s run to the Round of 32 showed that he’ll forever be dangerous in this venue. Fognini also happened to get a good opening-round draw, as Daniel Evans is just 19-36 on clay in his career. Evans is also 0-6 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. Evans’ slice backhand just isn’t as impactful on this surface, and his serve and forehand aren’t consistent enough for him to find success off grass/hard courts. With that in mind, Evans will need to be perfect in order to find a way to beat Fognini, who is 236-176 on clay in his career. But Evans’ play in 2024 makes it hard to believe he’ll find another gear. So, Fognini should blast him off the court with his absurd all-court power.

Bet: Fognini ML (-141 – 2 units)

Tomas Machac vs. Matteo Arnaldi – Rome

Tomas Machac is 2-0 against Matteo Arnaldi in his career, but things should flip in Rome. Arnaldi is a better clay-court player than Machac, as evidenced by a better record at the ATP level and multiple Challenger-level titles. Machac has never won an event on the dirt. On top of that, Arnaldi will be playing in front of his home crowd. That should give him the extra adrenaline he needs to get the better of Machac from the baseline, and I also wouldn’t be surprised if we see more unforced errors out of the Czech in this wild atmosphere. It’s also worth noting that Arnaldi’s serve is a lot more reliable than Machac’s on clay. Overall, that just seems like a lot for Machac to have to overcome. So, I’m laying the games with Arnaldi.

Bet: Arnaldi -2.5 Games (-111 – 2 units)

Rebecca Sramkova vs. Katie Boulter – Rome

Katie Boulter has never won a clay-court match at the WTA level, but I think she gets in the win column on Friday. There’s just no reason she can’t find a way to find some success on this surface. Boulter is a really sturdy baseline player, capable of hitting great strokes from both wings. And she’s a really good mover along the baseline. Boulter has also made real strides as a server this year. And overall, I just don’t see any reason she shouldn’t get by Rebecca Sramkova. The Slovakian is just 4-6 on clay at the WTA level, so it’s not like she’s some proven player on the dirt. That said, I’m just playing Boulter on the moneyline. She’s a much better player and should be able to get the job done.

Bet: Boulter ML (-109 – 2 units)

Dominik Koepfer vs. Frances Tiafoe – Rome

Dominik Koepfer is coming off an impressive straight-set win over Andrea Vavassori. However, the lefty is just 14-18 on clay in his ATP career, and he’s also just 1-5 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. This really isn’t his surface and that checks out when you think about his playing style. Koepfer is a big server that likes to slap shots from the baseline with a lot of power. And when he has it going with his forehand, that strategy can theoretically work anywhere. But I just like Tiafoe’s all-around game a little too much here. The American should be able to hold serve rather easily in this match, and he also happens to have a little more variety than Koepfer from the baseline. That’s important when talking about clay-court tennis, as there are more extended rallies than usual. On top of that, Tiafoe is capable of coming in and getting some easy points at the net.

Bet: Tiafoe ML (-115 – 1.5 units)

Hamad Medjedovic vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – Rome

Hamad Medjedovic is a player to keep an eye on moving forward. The Serbian has the full backing of Novak Djokovic, who mentors him and helps fund his career. And the 20-year-old won the Next Gen Finals in 2023, showing that he is one of the better young players in the world. But Medjedovic is still relatively unproven at the ATP level. And while I was impressed with his win over Alexei Popyrin last match, beating Davidovich Fokina on clay is going to be a whole different animal. The Spaniard has been to a Masters 1000 final on clay, so he has proven that he is tough to beat on this surface. And overall, I like Davidovich Fokina’s baseline play to shine through here. This could be a match in which breaks are hard to come by. But that would favor Davidovich Fokina, who has the firepower to drive Medjedovic nuts.

Pick: Davidovich Fokina ML (-135)

Alejandro Tabilo vs. Zhizhen Zhang – Rome

This is a match in which I think the odds should be way closer to even money, so I’m putting quite a bit on Zhizhen Zhang to win this thing. Throughout this tournament, Zhang has just been playing some tremendous attacking tennis, and he is also second of the remaining players in steal percentage (all insights and shot quality numbers from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations). So, not only is Zhang going for wingers, but he is also creating magic out of thin air when he’s on defense. And overall, Zhang and Alejandro Tabilo are neck and neck when it comes to baseline battles this tournament. So, when you add in the fact that Zhang has a little more power and has been clicking from the backhand side, it’s hard not to like him as a plus-money play here.

Zhang could also be due for some positive regression from the forehand wing here. TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations have Zhang’s forehand quality down at 7.0 in Rome thus far. But over the last 52 weeks, that shot is a 7.7 out of 10 for the powerful baseliner. And if he starts hitting his spots with that forehand, Tabilo is going to be in trouble.

All in all, it just feels like Tabilo is being a little overvalued because of his wins over Novak Djokovic and Karen Khachanov. But there’s not much that separates these two, even when it comes to raw clay-court Elo rating. So, how can you not like some great odds on a match that is closer to 50/50?

Bet: Zhang ML (+145 – 2 units)

Tommy Paul vs. Hubert Hurkacz – Rome

According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, nobody in Rome was returning at a higher level than Hubert Hurkacz heading into the quarterfinals. Well, that’s bad news for Tommy Paul when you also consider that Hurkacz is third in the world in hold percentage (90.2%) this season. And the Pole’s hold percentage on clay over the last 52 weeks is up at 86.0%, so it’s not like the dirt is keeping him from racking up easy holds. Overall, I just find it hard to believe that Paul can beat Hurkacz when he’s serving and returning like this. Paul has never been much of a clay-court performer, as he is just 19-25 on the surface on his career. So, even though Paul will have an edge when it comes to baseline play, I think the deck is stacked against him. And it doesn’t hurt that Hurkacz has already won a title on clay this season. He’s really enjoying this surface for the first time in his career.

Bet: Hurkacz ML (-145)

Alejandro Tabilo vs. Alexander Zverev – Rome

Alejandro Tabilo has put together the run of his career in the Eternal City. Tabilo hasn’t dropped a single set in this tournament, and it’s not like he has played poor competition. In fact, Tabilo has earned wins over Novak Djokovic and Karen Khachanov this week. But it is worth noting that Djokovic has been out of it all year. And it’s not like Tabilo has faced any in-form clay-courters. Well, Alexander Zverev might not be a clay-court specialist, but he’s in form and he absolutely loves this surface, And he happens to be better than Tabilo at pretty much everything. Zverev is a better server and returner than Tabilo, and that’s also true on the dirt. Also, in addition to having one of the best backhands in the world, Zverev is also hitting the hell out of his forehand. With that in mind, I just don’t see anything that Tabilo can do to make Zverev uncomfortable out there. That said, this should be a pretty straightforward match.

Bet: Zverev -1.5 Sets (-120)

Nicolas Jarry vs. Tommy Paul – Rome

I was on the wrong side of Tommy Paul’s last match and I’m definitely feeling a little bitter about it. Hubert Hurkacz played horribly throughout that quarter-final showdown, but he still earned himself two one-break leads in the final set. His serve just completely abandoned him in the match, which is crazy considering he’s arguably the best server on the planet. Hurkacz also played some sloppy tennis throughout, making it something of an unconvincing win for Paul. However, the opposite is true of Nicolas Jarry’s win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Jarry was absolutely hammering shots from the forehand side and was able to take down Tsitsipas, who looked pretty decent throughout the match. Now, I think the Chilean has a great shot at advancing to the final.

Paul is one of the better grinders in the sport, but he’s going to need some more power in order to continue winning in these conditions. It’s extremely slow in Rome, so Paul isn’t going to hit many winners. And his serve is going to be rather easy to return. Of course, that was true in the earlier rounds, and Paul did work his way all the way to the semis. But he’s now running into the very best players, so more will be demanded of him. And I’m just not sure he’ll be able to deal with the raw power of Jarry, who happens to move pretty well on clay.

All in all, it’s just hard to ignore that Jarry is 70-46 on clay in his career, and he’s also 16-9 on the surface in the last 52 weeks. Paul is just 20-25 on clay in his career, and he’s 7-5 on the surface in the last 52 weeks. Jarry is just a more accomplished player on clay, and he has a game that should make things tough on Paul.

Bet: Jarry ML (-105 – 2 units)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek – Rome Final

Swiatek should be able to find a way to get the job done, especially considering she’s as high as a -400 favorite in some spots. And overall, the conditions in Rome are a lot slower, and that suits Swiatek perfectly. It’s also hard to ignore that when also considering Swiatek beat Sabalenka in Madrid two weeks ago. The altitude in Madrid makes for a much faster game, and that leveled the playing field for Sabalenka. The Belarusian won’t find herself in a favorable situation here. However, I do think the odds here are a little outrageous. Swiatek should win this match, but it’s never really easy against Sabalenka. So, I wouldn’t hate a play on Sabalenka +5.5 games.

The last three clay-court matches between these two have been decided by five games or fewer, so it feels like a relatively safe bet. I also don’t think you can count out Sabalenka winning a set. The reality is that Sabalenka can be tough to beat when she’s serving well. And there’s really no reason she shouldn’t be able to do that here. There’s very little pressure on her, as nobody really expects her to win this match.

All in all, I like Swiatek to win this match and head into the French Open with two titles in a row. But I don’t see her completely dominating from start to finish. Swiatek is known for winning ugly.