Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek – Madrid

Swiatek is as high as -300 at some sportsbooks. So, the number I have is really good here, and I love her chances of winning. However, if you’re really looking to hedge, you can do a lot worse than taking Aryna Sabalenka +4.5 games or +1.5 sets. That would give you a chance to middle on this match.

If you’re just looking to play this one, maybe look to parlay Swiatek moneyline with something else (I like Lorenzo Musetti ML as a parlay anchor on Saturday). The game spread is a little bigger than you’d want, especially considering Sabalenka beat Swiatek here last year. So, unless you have Swiatek moneyline, I wouldn’t feel great about this match. But this should be an exciting one to watch. And it’ll be interesting to see if all of the work Swiatek has done to her serve and forehand helps her beat Sabalenka. Swiatek has been working to speed up her process so that powerful players like Sabalenka can’t make her uncomfortable from the baseline. I tend to think it’ll work for the Pole, who should also be motivated to win her first title in Madrid.

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Andrey Rublev – Madrid

Felix Auger-Aliassime has had a lot of luck since beating Casper Ruud in a tight three-set match in the Round of 16. He received a walkover against Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals, and Jiri Lehecka retired when it was 3-3 in the first set of the semifinals. Now, the Canadian will look to beat Andrey Rublev, who has earned wins over Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz in his last two matches, in the Mutua Madrid Open final. And while I’m not sure Auger-Aliassime will be able to get across the finish line, I do like him to cover a 3.5-game spread.

I mentioned it before Rublev beat Fritz, but I don’t really buy the Russian’s serve. Rublev’s hold percentage is up at 90.9% in 2024, despite the fact that it was below 85.0% in both 2022 and 2023. He has never been a player that has held consistently, so I think he’s due for some regression. And if it comes here, Rublev will have a hard time winning convincingly. Auger-Aliassime is actually one of the better servers on tour, and he absolutely loves these conditions. So, whether it’s with aces or serve-plus-ones, Auger-Aliassime should win most of his service games. And that alone makes it hard not to like him to cover a pretty big spread.

Auger-Aliassime has also spent just six hours on the court in this tournament. So, he should be pretty fresh when he gets out there. That can’t be ignored in an event that has clearly taken a physical toll on a lot of players.

Bet: Auger-Aliassime +3.5 Games (-138 – 1.5 units)