NRFI -108 (Play to -130)

Starting Pitchers: Michael King vs. Brandon Pfaadt

This game features one of the lower-juice NRFIs on the slate, thanks to the somewhat high 8.5-run total

Brandon Pfaadt's underlying numbers point to some positive regression for him overall. That's especially true early in games, where his first time through the order ERA is 2.77. Ditto for Michael King, who's first time xFIP and first time ERA are both well below his full game numbers in the same statistic.

It's a bit scary given the quality of both offenses involved, but NRFIs have been hitting at a much higher rate lately and the price is right on this one. I'd gladly take the -120 lines that are widely available here, with some wiggle room for line movement.

However, the over 8.5 runs is getting some steam, so there's an argument for waiting until closer to game time to place this one, as we could get a better price if the total ticks up to nine.

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees No Run First Inning
1:05 PM ET

Clarke Schmidt will pitch in the top of the 1st inning against the traveling Tigers. Schmidt is having the best season of his career, posting a 3.12 ERA with a 5-1 NRFI record that includes a perfect 3-0 split while at home. In his last 4 starts, Schmidt has been dominant with a 2.57 ERA against some tough opponents in the Guardians, Rays and Orioles.

Today when Schmidt comes to the bump, he will get a much easier matchup in the Tigers. This season, this is how the Tigers rank in these existing categories: Runs (20/30), Homeruns (22/30), Batting Average (22/30). Against the Yankees yesterday, the Tigers totaled just 5 hits and scored only 1 run as Schmidt will continue that today en route to 3 dominant outs.

Once Clarke Schmidt dominates the Tigers, the young Casey Mize will come to the mound to bring us home 3 outs to glory. Along with Schmidt, Mize has been dominant this season and especially in the 1st inning thus far. With an overall ERA of 3.08, road ERA of 2.93, NRFI record of 4-1 and road NRFI record of 3-0, these splits represent a great NRFI pitcher on the road.

Casey Mize will come to the mound, facing a Yankees offense that currently ranks 20/30th in 1st inning runs per game this season. The Yankees offense is 26-8 (76%) to the NRFI overall, 10-4 (71%) at home and have cashed 4 straight NRFI’s as an offense. This offense has not scored over 2 runs in 5 straight games so look for Mize to use his untouchable arsenal for 3 scoreless outs.