Matheus Nicolau -185 vs. Alex Perez +155
Flyweight (125 pounds) Main Event

We last saw eighth-ranked Perez fight eight weeks ago when he lost a close decision to seventh-ranked Muhammad Mokaev after not competing in the cage for two years.

Perez is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who has dealt with inconsistency in the octagon because he’s been unable to compete without enduring long layoffs between bouts.

Perez has a well-founded wrestling base, solid BJJ and being of Mexican descent, it is understood that he is durable and has effective boxing. In this opportunity, he turns around quickly, which I believe to be foundational to the outcome of this main event.

Brazilian Nicolau is the fifth-ranked fighter in the division. He enters this battle after being decimated by Brandon Royval in his last fight. However, prior to that setback, he ran off six straight victories against top-ranked flyweight competition.

A black belt in BJJ, Nicolau is fleet afoot, has superior ground acumen, and is capable on his feet, though he accrues damage via volume as opposed to possessing one-strike KO power.

Nicolau has been the more consistent fighter, fighting three times in the last two years, while Perez has only fought once in that same period.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -145

Karine Silva -150 vs. Ariane Lipski +125
Woman’s flyweight (125 pounds)

In this battle of Brazil, Silva opened as the ever-so-slight favorite -115 to Lipski’s -105, with the total set at 2.5Rds. Under -115.

Lipski, ranked twelfth, lost to an underwhelming Pricilla Cachioera in 2022 before rolling through three straight foes while improving with each straight victory. Her last win against Casey O’Neill earned her a spot in the rankings and pronounced Lipski as a bone fide contender instead of a gatekeeper for the top twenty of the division.

Lipski has eleven UFC bouts under her belt. With a black belt in Muay Thai and a purple belt in BJJ, she is capable on the floor but quite dangerous on the feet, especially from distance where she can launch damaging leg strikes.

Silva enters this fight as the thirteenth-ranked athlete in the division and one who has ascended the ranks in far more efficient fashion than Lipski.

Silva’s more compact in body style than Lipski, and she carries more aptitude on the mat. Though she’s not highly decorated in any specialty, her ground game and wrestling prowess are advanced. Her aggression, forward pressure and striking power from the pocket are pronounced.

In this bout, we will witness Lipski attempt to maintain striking distance to flush Silva on the face as she enters to engage.

Silva plans to punish Lipski from inside the pocket after pressing her against the fence to eliminate her space and ability to distance herself.

This fight will be an action-packed striking affair only as long as it remains on the feet before Silva gains inside position and then drags the less-versed grappler to the floor.

Should Lipski be able to strike in space she’s liable to accrue damage on Silva over time. However, should Silva be able to make this fight dirty, grimy and waged inside a phone booth, which is surely the plan, her forced determination and heavy top control are liable to overwhelm Lipski, who is well better at dolling out damage from the feet than taking it with her back on the canvas.

Lipski, after opening -105, evolved to -140 until savvy bettors realized a great opportunity and pounced on Silva, making her the current favorite where I believe she will close.

Matheus Nicolau (-180) versus Alex Perez (+150)

Over 4.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 4.5 Rounds (-135)

This main event is a rare matchup between two fighters coming off losses. Nicolau was finished inside the distance by Brandon Royval in a title shot eliminator bout, but before that he was on a six-fight win streak (four in the UFC). His opponent Perez was moved into this position on short notice after Manel Kape had to withdraw. Perez’s last fight was a decision loss just under two months ago versus the undefeated Mohammed Mokaev. Perez has had terrible injury luck with himself and his opponents; he has fought three times since 2021, and has not won a fight since 2020. However, there is a slight asterisk on those losses. The last fight was versus one of the most highly thought of prospects in the division (Mokaev). In 2022, he fought Alexandre Pantoja in the fight immediately before he won the flyweight title. In 2020, he fought Deiveson Figueiredo for the flyweight championship. Prior to that, his only loss in the UFC was against multi-time perennial contender Joseph Benavidez. Overall Perez’s record in the UFC is 6-4.

Undoubtedly, Perez has the stronger strength of schedule. But the caveat is he has lost the four fights versus his four toughest opponents. Nicolau has beaten lots of guys who have had long UFC careers including Matt Schnell, Tim Elliott, and Louis Smolka, but the only person he has faced who has come close to winning the belt was Brandon Royval. Additionally, Nicolau has never been featured in a main event, and has never fought a five-round fight.

The tricky part about handicapping this fight is trying to determine where the ceiling in Nicolau’s ability is; and where is Perez’s floor? The gap in the level of competition between the fighters they have beat versus the opponents they have lost to is relatively extreme.

On paper, this is a very close matchup, with Perez landing slightly more significant strikes per minute, but Nicolau is slightly more accurate. Grappling is nearly a wash, although Perez has historically been a bit more active securing takedowns. Additionally, Nicolau has an impressive 93% takedown defense rate (14/15). But this stat is maybe a bit inflated because 10 of those takedown attempts came from Tim Elliott, who was 1/10 in the bout. In his seven other UFC bouts, he faced five takedown attempts.

At weigh-ins on Friday, both fighters hit their targets on the first attempt. Nicolau looked better to my eye, but Perez has historically looked rough on the scale and it hasn’t necessarily affected him on fight day. I see Perez being able to push wrestling tempo and test Nicolau’s takedown defense in ways he is not accustomed to seeing in the cage. The biggest thing holding me back on a bet is Perez’s relatively short notice in taking this fight (1 month), and the long history Perez has with injuries. That said, this is likely his last shot to propel himself back into the top five and title shot consideration. He has only been fighting the best when he has been in the cage over the past several years, there is a case to be made for Nicolau being his “easiest” opponent since 2020.

Ryan “Superman” Spann (-180) versus Bogdan “Czarevitch” Guskov (+150)

Over 1.5 Rounds (+200) | Under 1.5 Rounds (-250)

Spann has a great highlight reel with three knockout and two submission victories over the course of 11 trips to the octagon. He has seen a ton of talent in the light heavyweight division. He has faced two opponents who have fought for the title (lost via split decision vs Anthony Smith, knocked out Dominick Reyes, lost via submission to Anthony Smith) and shared the cage with other notable fighters such as Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Johnny Walker, and Nikita Krylov. With a 7-4 UFC record, his career has seen ups and downs. Eight of his UFC fights have been settled inside the distance, but two of his three fights that made it to the scorecards were split decisions. Spann is also an extremely active fighter, with an overall MMA record of 21-9 at just 32 years old. He has fought twice a year, every year since 2020 and this is his first bout since losing the split decision to Anthony Smith on August 26, 2023.

Guskov is still mostly a question mark in the UFC. We know that he fights at a frenetic pace, as both of his fights in the UFC have been decided in the first round. We also know that he has extremely heavy hands and is most successful when his power shots are landing. Overall, he is 15-3 as a professional fighter, with 13 of those victories coming via KO, and the other two coming via submission. He has been knocked out once, submitted once (by Volkan Oezdemir in Guskov’s UFC debut) and lost one fight via decision. He is a fighter that truly understands that the MMA game does not pay by the minute.

Guskov’s pre-UFC competition was solid, not necessarily great. He faced enough people who had double-digit fights and had reached the heights of B-Tier organizations such as Bellator, M-1, and ACA for us to know he is not totally out of his depth on a Fight Night show. Additionally, his UFC debut was on less than a month’s notice versus a former light heavyweight title contender in Oezdemir. His lack of fight camp for the fight was apparent in his physical makeup and obvious lack of cardio. For the first two minutes of the fight, he did some good things; he made Oezdemir respect his power and was not afraid to stay in his opponent’s face. But Oezdemir changed levels, got the fight to the ground, and wore Guskov out. In his second fight versus Zac Pauga, Buskov looked to be in much better shape with less noticeable fat and more defined muscles. He also did what I thought was impossible, making a Pauga fight interesting. He stuck to his guns and engaged with heavy hands in the center of the cage, he defended the takedown and ultimately finished Pauga with his unorthodox, thrown from the hip punches.

Stylistically this is a great matchup with two extremely dangerous light heavyweights. Spann has a notable reach advantage, measuring in at 81.5 inches to Guskov’s 76 inches. Spann is also 6’5” and Guskov is 6’3”. Putting the guys’ UFC stats side-by-side is useful, but not necessarily as instructive as it would be if Guskov were in the UFC longer. The one thing that sticks out is that in both of his UFC fights, Guskov’s striking defense was not great, especially regarding leg kicks. His head movement also leaves a bit to be desired; at times he looks as fluid as a champion boxer, but there are moments where his neck is stiff and his chin is out, and his hands are down. Against Pauga, he did not try to win with volume, he tried to pick his shots and it worked out.

We also know that Spann is a very well-rounded fighter who isn’t going to rush in and put himself in danger in search of the early KO. There is a legitimate chance this fight stalls early as the fighters feel out their opponents. I think Spann will try to keep Guskov at distance early in the fight using his jab and front kicks to control the space, I don’t think Guskov is going to want to eat shots to get inside.