Saturday, 04/27/2024 (545) BOSTON vs. (546) MIAMI
Favoring: BOSTON against the spread.
BOSTON is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 113, OPPONENT 105.3 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 04/27/2024 (543) OKLAHOMA CITY vs. (544) NEW ORLEANS
Favoring: OKLAHOMA CITY against the spread.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 119.6, OPPONENT 113.3 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 04/27/2024 (541) CLEVELAND vs. (542) ORLANDO
Favoring: CLEVELAND against the spread.
CLEVELAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 111.4, OPPONENT 104.4 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 04/27/2024 (541) CLEVELAND vs. (542) ORLANDO
Favoring: ORLANDO against the spread.
ORLANDO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=13 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 110.9, OPPONENT 106.2 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 04/27/2024 (541) CLEVELAND vs. (542) ORLANDO
Favoring: Under on the total.
CLEVELAND is 27-8 UNDER (+18.2 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 106.7, OPPONENT 100.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 04/27/2024 (547) DENVER vs. (548) LA LAKERS
Favoring: Under on the total.
DENVER is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was DENVER 108.7, OPPONENT 105.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 04/27/2024 (545) BOSTON vs. (546) MIAMI
Favoring: BOSTON on the first half line.
BOSTON is 47-26 (+18.4 Units) against the 1rst half line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 62.3, OPPONENT 54.4 - (Rating = 2*

Saturday, 04/27/2024 (545) BOSTON vs. (546) MIAMI
Favoring: BOSTON on the first half line.
BOSTON is 32-13 (+17.7 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 57.3, OPPONENT 52.1 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 04/27/2024 (547) DENVER vs. (548) LA LAKERS
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
LA LAKERS are 55-30 OVER (+22 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 60.2, OPPONENT 59.9 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 04/27/2024 (547) DENVER vs. (548) LA LAKERS
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
LA LAKERS are 42-21 OVER (+18.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 61.6, OPPONENT 59.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 04/27/2024 (547) DENVER vs. (548) LA LAKERS
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
LA LAKERS are 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total on Saturday games this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 63.5, OPPONENT 60.5 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 04/27/2024 (545) BOSTON vs. (546) MIAMI
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
BOSTON is 25-9 OVER (+15.1 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 64.3, OPPONENT 54.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Magic-Cavaliers Game 4 betting at BetMGM

Magic open -2.5, no movement
▪️ 53% of bets, 52% of money on Magic

Total open 201.5, no movement
▪️ 69% of bets, 62% of money on Over

Cavs open +110, no movement
▪️ 69% of bets, 49% of money on Cavaliers

Most bet (tickets) Cavaliers-Magic player props at BetMGM

1. Jonathan Isaac over 12.5 PTs/RBs/ASTs (-130)

2. Jalen Suggs under 3.5 assists (+100)

3. Jalen Suggs under 22.5 PTs/RBs/ASTs (-135)

4. Jalen Suggs under 14.5 points (-125)

Pelicans-Thunder Game 3 betting at BetMGM

Thunder open -1.5, no movement
▪️ 87% of bets, 89% of money on Thunder

Total open 210.5, now 209.5
▪️ 46% of bets, 62% of money on Under

Pelicans open +100, no movement
▪️ 32% of bets, 30% of money on Pelicans

Most bet (tickets) Thunder-Pelicans player props at BetMGM

1. Herbert Jones under 2.5 assists (+115)

2. CJ McCollum over 31.5 PTs/RBs/ASTs (-125)

3. Herbert Jones over 1.5 3-pointers (-145)

4. Jalen Williams over 4.5 assists (+100)

Celtics-Heat Game 3 betting at BetMGM

Celtics open -7.5, now -9.5
▪️ 47% of bets, 49% of money on Celtics

Total open 205.5, now 204.5
▪️ 91% of bets, 94% of money on Over

HEAT open +240, now +340
▪️ 80% of bets, 76% of money on Heat

Most bet (tickets) Celtics-Heat player props at BetMGM

1. Jrue Holiday over 9.5 points (-145)

2. Jaylen Brown over 21.5 points (-120)

3. Tyler Herro over 6.5 assists (-120)

4. Jaylen Brown over 6.5 rebounds (-135)

The Heat are currently 9.5-point underdogs against the Celtics in Game 3.

Miami was 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS as a home underdog this season, the worst in the NBA

Nuggets-Lakers Game 4 betting at BetMGM

Nuggets open -2.5, now -3.5
▪️ 82% of bets, 85% of money on Nuggets

Total open 216.5, now 218.5
▪️ 58% of bets, 93% of money on Over

Lakers open +125, now +135
▪️ 38% of bets, 15% of money on Lakers

Most bet (tickets) Nuggets-Lakers player props at BetMGM

1. Jamal Murray over 35.5 PTs/RBs/ASTs (-130)

2. Nikola Jokic over 8.5 assists (-135)

3. Nikola Jokic triple double (Yes +155)

4. LeBron James over 26.5 points (-110)

First-Round Trends by Game Number

• Since 2019, the first-round Game Three home teams have been 15-23 SU and 16-22 ATS (42.1%). However, their 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS performance in 2023 was their best in several years.
System Matches: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+1 vs OKC), FADE MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

• The better Game Three home teams are those coming off a win in Game Two. They are 11-9 SU and 9-11 ATS (45%) in their last 20 tries, while those that lost in Game Two are on a 11-19 SU and 13-17 ATS (43.3%) skid.
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

• Game Three point spreads most often tell the story, as hosts of 4.5 points or more are on a 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) stretch since ’13, while home dogs of 4.5 points or more are just 3-16 SU and 7-11-1 ATS (38.9%) in that same span.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

• Game Three home teams in the +4 to -4 line range are currently on a brutal skid of 8-18 SU and 7-18-1 ATS (28%) since 2017.
System Matches: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+1 vs OKC)

Since 2010, road favorites in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs have gone 84-59-3 (59%) ATS

Saturday road favorites:

▪️ Thunder -1.5 at Pelicans
▪️ Celtics -9.5 at Heat
▪️ Nuggets -3.5 at Lakers