Thursday, 04/25/2024 (9) FLORIDA vs. (10) TAMPA BAY
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the money line.
Play On - Any team against the money line (TAMPA BAY) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 1 goal or less, off 2 consecutive close losses by 1 goal to a division rival
(48-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.2%, +31.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +4.9 units).

Thursday, 04/25/2024 (11) CAROLINA vs. (12) NY ISLANDERS
Favoring: NY ISLANDERS on the money line.
Play Against - Road teams against the money line (CAROLINA) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 2 goals or more against opponent off a road loss
(183-115 since 1997.) (61.4%, +71.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-3 +3.4 units).

Thursday, 04/25/2024 (9) FLORIDA vs. (10) TAMPA BAY
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams against the total (FLORIDA) - quick starting team-outscoring opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period - 2nd half of the season, after scoring 3 goals or more in 5 straight games
(55-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +30.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3 -0.5 units).

Thursday, 04/25/2024 (11) CAROLINA vs. (12) NY ISLANDERS
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Home teams where the total is 5.5 (NY ISLANDERS) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent by 2 goals or more, off a road blowout loss by 3 goals or more
(22-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.5%, +17.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Thursday, 04/25/2024 (11) CAROLINA vs. (12) NY ISLANDERS
Favoring: NY ISLANDERS on the money line.
NY ISLANDERS are 15-4 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY ISLANDERS 3.5, OPPONENT 1.8 - (Rating = 2*)

Thursday, 04/25/2024 (11) CAROLINA vs. (12) NY ISLANDERS
Favoring: NY ISLANDERS on the money line.
NY ISLANDERS are 13-3 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in home games revenging a road loss versus opponent by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY ISLANDERS 3.6, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Thursday, 04/25/2024 (11) CAROLINA vs. (12) NY ISLANDERS
Favoring: Under on the total.
CAROLINA is 21-5 UNDER (+15 Units) against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances in the 2nd half of the year this season.
The average score was CAROLINA 3.1, OPPONENT 2 - (Rating = 4*)

Thursday, 04/25/2024 (9) FLORIDA vs. (10) TAMPA BAY
Favoring: Under on the total.
FLORIDA is 34-14 UNDER (+19.9 Units) against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 3.2, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Thursday, 04/25/2024 (9) FLORIDA vs. (10) TAMPA BAY
Favoring: Under on the total.
FLORIDA is 18-5 UNDER (+12.9 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 3, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Thursday, 04/25/2024 (9) FLORIDA vs. (10) TAMPA BAY
Favoring: Under on the total.
FLORIDA is 44-18 UNDER (+25.4 Units) against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 3.2, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Florida at Tampa (-115, 6)

The Florida Panthers are a wagon. There’s no denying that at this point, but Amalie Arena can be a very difficult building to play in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In my opinion, you can never count the Lightning out. They have shown time and time again that they can flip a switch in desperate times.

One area that Tampa needs to focus on is their start to the game. Florida has had a much better jump in the first two games, so I imagine Jon Cooper will have his team fired up from the opening puck drop. Even if they weren’t at their best, the Lightning still had a good chance to take Game 2. Tonight, they will have to get more traffic in front of Sergei Bobrovsky.

Bobrovsky has been excellent for the Panthers, but Vasilevskiy has also had some strong showings. In Game 2, Vasilevskiy made 34 saves on 37 shots and skated to a .919 save percentage. The goaltending has not been an issue.

One player to look for is Nikita Kucherov, who has been unable to find the back of the net in the first two games. Kucherov has notched two assists, but after scoring 44 goals in the regular season, they will need him to get going if they want to get back in the series. Kucherov is a killer, and I do not doubt that he will have a big impact on this game tonight.

Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman have all shown up for Tampa.

The Panthers will be missing Sam Bennett, who was injured in the last game. That will be a bigger loss than some people may anticipate.

We’re going to see a desperate effort from the Bolts. I think they get themselves back in the series tonight.

NHL Best Bet: Tampa Bay Lightning ML -115 (play to -125)