First-Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

• Big favorites have held a significant edge—Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first-round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 85-13 SU and 58-40 ATS (59.2%).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-15 vs MIA)

• First round home favorites of four points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as over the last 10 playoff seasons, they are just 37-33 SU and 28-39-1 ATS (41.8%).
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-3 vs PHX), FADE MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs IND)

• The last two NBA first-round playoffs saw 49 Unders, 37 Overs – (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 6 Unders, 2 Overs.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 56-33-3 (62.9%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 68-58-2 (54%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: LAL-DEN, IND-MIL
PLAY UNDER in: ORL-CLE, PHI-NYK, PHX-MIN, DAL-LAC, MIA-BOS, NOP-OKC

Last Game Trends

• Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series – Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 68-37 SU and 57-48 ATS (54.3%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 77-65 SU and 65-74-3 ATS (46.8%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower-seeded team in a series, but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches: PLAY ALL 8 HOME TEAMS

• Blowout losses carry over – There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 72-130 SU and 85-114-3 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest since 2013. However, they were 11-7 ATS last year, including 8-1 ATS at home.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (+5.5 at CLE), FADE LA LAKERS (+7.5 at DEN), FADE PHOENIX (+3 at MIN), FADE INDIANA (+1.5 at MIL), FADE DALLAS (-2.5 at LAC), FADE MIAMI (+15 at BOS)

• Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect – Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 37-12 SU and 33-14-2 ATS (70.2%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 23-5 SU and 20-6-2 ATS (83.3%) surge! Of note, only three of last season’s 43 first-round games were decided by 3 points or fewer.
System Matches: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+7.5 at NOP)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (503) PHILADELPHIA vs. (504) NEW YORK
Favoring: Under on the total.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 101, OPPONENT 103.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (505) LA LAKERS vs. (506) DENVER
Favoring: Over on the total.
LA LAKERS are 30-11 OVER (+17.9 Units) in road games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 115.9, OPPONENT 118.5 - (Rating = 2*)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (505) LA LAKERS vs. (506) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
DENVER is 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents this season.
The average score was DENVER 110.1, OPPONENT 106.2 - (Rating = 2*)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (505) LA LAKERS vs. (506) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
DENVER is 30-16 UNDER (+12.4 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season.
The average score was DENVER 111.9, OPPONENT 109.4 - (Rating = 2*)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (505) LA LAKERS vs. (506) DENVER
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
LA LAKERS are 21-4 OVER (+16.6 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog vs. the 1rst half line this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 59.5, OPPONENT 63.2 - (Rating = 5*)

Monday, 04/22/2024 (505) LA LAKERS vs. (506) DENVER
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
LA LAKERS are 31-9 OVER (+21.1 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 60.3, OPPONENT 62.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 248-192 SU but 189-239-12 ATS (44.2%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 34-61 ATS.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-3 vs PHX)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 231-243 SU and 212-257-5 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+2.5 vs DAL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 237-230 SU and 210-244-11 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-15 vs MIA)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 156-132 SU and 162-118-8 ATS (57.9%) run.
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-7.5 vs LAL), PLAY MIAMI (+15 at BOS)