The UFL season has opened with a string of close games and lower-scoring affairs. All four of the games last week were decided by 7 points or fewer and the Under has hit 6 of the league’s first 8 games. Defenses are typically ahead of offenses early in the season with leagues like this so that trend makes sense. AVG pre-flop totals have been around 41PPG while the AVG combined score sits 38.5PPG.

ARLINGTON -1 vs DC, O/U 43

Arlington played well enough to cover the +5 and hit our over in front of 40,000+ fans in STL last week, but fell outright on a walkoff FG, 27-24. The Renegades, despite coming off an XFL title a season ago (coincidentally beating DC), are still looking for their 1st win of the season three weeks in. The Defenders meanwhile bounced back from their WK1 loss with a 23-18 win & push as 5-point favorites at home against Houston (total went over)The Roughnecks are the worst team in the league, so DC’s inability to beat the Roughnecks at margin is a big concern to me. It also appears they’ll be without some key contributors including lead WR Keke Coutee (groin). Renegades QB Luis Perez has had success against DC in the past, leading Arlington to a 28-26 road win in OT Week 9 last season and again on a neutral in the title tilt, 35-26. In the Champ game, Perez went 26-of-38 for 288 yds and 3TDs. He’s also coming off a week in STL where he completed 72% of his passes for 233 yds and 2TDs. While DC would love redemption for losing last year’s championship, I’m not sure they get it against a desperate ARL squad at home. It does also appear we should get a healthy # of points with both defenses struggling. DC is allowing 22.5 PPG, ahead only of the Renegades at 27.

BIRMINGHAM -7 vs MEMPHIS, O/U 40.5

The Stallions are a +180 favorite on the futures board to win a 3rd-straight spring football title. Dating back to last season, they’ve won 9-straight games including their last 5 by 7+ points. They lead the league in PPG, total yds, opponent PPG allowed and opponent YPG allowed. They are a bear. That said, I think 7 might be too many points in this spot against the Showboats. Memphis is probably still scratching its head how they lost last week. They held the Brahmas below 20 yds in the 1st half, had a 16-0 lead in the 4th quarter and a 19-8 lead with under a minute to play. They call QB Case Cookus “The Chef” and while at times he’s been running for his life, he’s also the only UFL QB with at least 300 yds passing and 50 yds rushing. They also have been extremely successful taking away the football, forcing 5 turnovers to lead the UFL this season. That could raise a problem for the Stallions 2QB system that’s struggled at times getting in a rhythm with Adrian Martinez and Matt Corral alternating drives.

MICHIGAN -2.5 vs HOUSTON, O/U 38

This total just gets lower and lower. Houston is 0-2, the worst team in the UFL in scoring, YPG, rushing offense, and 6th of 8 in passing. Oh AND they lost their starting QB Jarrett Guarantano for at least a month as well as WR/RB Kirk Merritt with a potentially season-ending injury. The Panthers offense isn’t in much better shape. They’re 7th in the league in PPG, YPG, last in passing and have a QB in EJ Perry who’s been sacked 8Xs and intercepted 3Xs (both UFL highs). Michigan also has kicker extraordinaire Jake Bates who’s 3-for-3 on FGs attempts (including two at 62+ yds), but if you’re letting you’re kicker go from that kind of distance, it says a lot to me about the state of your offense. Not sure I trust the Panthers to cover in the favorites role, but I think they win the game. The under also feels like the play, but in a league with 3-point PATs, I understand if that feels like a risky proposition.

ST. LOUIS -1 vs SAN ANTONIO, O/U 42

San Antonio has put on a show back-to-back weeks to open the UFL season, most recently coming back from down 19-8 in the final minute against Showboats. They struggled all game, but scored late, were able to maintain possession converting the “make it take it” 4th & 12, no timeouts, scored again with 3-seconds to spare to take a 1-pt lead. Then with the spread & total in the balance (to my chagrin) elected to take a knee on the 2-PAT attempt. The Brahmas win but don’t cover -1.5 and the total stays Under.Despite being 2-0 and only allowing 1TD so far, life will be more challenging against the Battlehawks. They too, could easily be 2-0 had Michigan’s Jake Bates not hit a 64-yd game-winning FG to start the season. When AJ McCarron and the STL offense are clicking, they are a PROBLEM and they started to find a rhythm and momentum last week. They take care of the football (only team without a turnover) and found a boost in the run game with Mataeo Durant, who after being inactive week 1, toted the rock for over 100 yds.