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msudogs
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MLB Lagniappe 4/14

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (979) CHICAGO CUBS vs. (980) SEATTLE
Favoring: CHICAGO CUBS on the money line.
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CHICAGO CUBS) - below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), in April games
(33-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.7%, +32.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 +0.8 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (979) CHICAGO CUBS vs. (980) SEATTLE
Favoring: CHICAGO CUBS on the money line.
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CHICAGO CUBS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), in April games
(30-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.8%, +30.2 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 +0.8 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (965) TEXAS vs. (966) HOUSTON
Favoring: HOUSTON on the money line.
Play Against - Any team (TEXAS) - very good AL offensive team (>=5.4 runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA>=4.50), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL)
(23-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.7%, +29 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (965) TEXAS vs. (966) HOUSTON
Favoring: HOUSTON on the money line.
Play Against - Any team (TEXAS) - good AL offensive team (>=5.1 runs/game) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA>=4.50), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL)
(55-47 over the last 5 seasons.) (53.9%, +50 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

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Sunday, 04/14/2024 (961) NY YANKEES vs. (962) CLEVELAND
Favoring: CLEVELAND on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (CLEVELAND) - very good offensive team (>=5.4 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL)
(46-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.9%, +38.1 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (961) NY YANKEES vs. (962) CLEVELAND
Favoring: CLEVELAND on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (CLEVELAND) - very good offensive team (>=5.4 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game
(40-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +32.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (979) CHICAGO CUBS vs. (980) SEATTLE
Favoring: CHICAGO CUBS on the run line.
Play On - Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-160 to -115) (CHICAGO CUBS) - below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), in April games
(41-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.4%, +31 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.5 units).

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (979) CHICAGO CUBS vs. (980) SEATTLE
Favoring: CHICAGO CUBS on the run line.
Play On - Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-160 to -115) (CHICAGO CUBS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), in April games
(37-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.0%, +28.4 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.5 units).

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Pittsburgh (10-5) @ Philadelphia (8-7)
— Keller is 1-1, 7.02 in three starts.
— Pittsburgh is 2-1 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He is 0-3, 5.74 in five starts vs Philadelphia

— Pirates split their last eight games.
— They’re 7-3 on the road.
— under 4-0 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 3-15
— record in first 5 innings: 9-6
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 1.2-4-2.1

— Wheeler is 0-2, 2.84 in three starts.
— Philly is 0-3 in his starts, scoring 4 runs in 3 games.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He is 4-0, 2.14 in seven starts vs Pittsburgh.

— Phillies are 6-3 in their last nine games.
— Phillies are 5-4 at home.
— under 10-0 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 6-15
— record in first 5 innings: 7-7-1
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-5

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Atlanta (8-5) @ Miami (3-12)
— Morton is 1-0, 3.09 in two starts.
— Atlanta is 1-1 in his starts.
— over 1-0-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0-1
— He is 12-6, 3.92 in 24 starts vs Miami.

— Braves are 5-3 in their last eight games.
— They’re 4-3 on road.
— over 9-3-1
— scored run in first inning: 5-13
— record in first 5 innings: 6-5-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2.2-1

— Luzardo is 0-2, 7.20 in three starts.
— Miami is 0-3 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He is 3-3, 3.52 in six starts vs Atlanta.

— Marlins split last six games, after an 0-9 start.
— Marlins are 1-8 at home.
— under 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 7-8
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-3

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St Louis (7-8) @ Arizona (7-8)
— Mikolas is 1-1, 4.76 in three starts.
— St Louis is 1-2 in his starts, scoring nine runs.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-3
— He is 2-1, 2.10 in five games (3 starts) vs Arizona.

— Cardinals lost four of their last six games.
— They’re 4-5 on road.
— under 7-3 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 4-8-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4.1-2

— Gallen is 2-0, 2.25 in three starts (16 IP).
— Arizona is 2-1 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0
— He is 0-1, 4.76 in two starts vs St Louis.
— Cardinals traded Gallen to Miami six years ago.

— Arizona lost six of last nine games.
— Diamondbacks are 5-4 at home.
— under 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 10-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-4-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-3

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San Diego (8-9) @ Los Angeles (11-6)
— Darvish is 0-1, 4.34 in four starts.
— San Diego is 2-2 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1
— He is 4-5, 2.27 in 13 starts against the Dodgers.

— Padres are 3-2 in their last five games.
— They’re 2-3 in true road games.
— under 7-3 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 7-17
— record in first 5 innings: 9-7-1
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-6-3

— Paxton is 2-0, 1.59 in his two starts.
— Dodgers are 2-0 in his starts.
— over 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1
— He is 2-1, 1.83 in four starts vs San Diego.

— Dodgers split their last eight games.
— Dodgers are 7-2 at home.
— over 6-2-1 at home
— scored run in first inning: 8-17
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-6-2.1

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Bronx (12-3) @ Cleveland (9-5)
— Cortes is 1-1, 3.50 in three starts.
— New York is 2-1 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He is 1-0, 2.50 in five games (2 starts) vs Cleveland.

— New York won 12 of its first 15 games.
— They’re 8-1 on road.
— under 10-4 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-7

— Allen is 2-0, 4.60 in three starts.
— Cleveland is 2-1 in his starts.
— over 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against New York.

— Cleveland lost three of its last four games.
— Guardians are 2-3 at home.
— under 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 3-14
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-1
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-9.1

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Minnesota (6-7) @ Detroit (8-6)
— Ober is 0-1, 8.53 in two starts.
— Minnesota is 0-2 in his starts.
— under 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1
— He is 1-2, 5.40 in seven starts vs Detroit.

— Twins won three of their last four games.
— They’re 5-3 on road.
— under 8-5
— scored run in first inning: 4-13
— record in first 5 innings: 4-7-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-9

— Flaherty is 0-1, 5.25 in his first two starts.
— Detroit is 1-1 in his starts.
— under 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1
— He gave up a run in 5.2 IP, in his only start vs Minnesota.

— Detroit lost five of last seven games.
— Tigers are 2-4 at home.
— over 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 5-14
— record in first 5 innings: 5-7-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-8.1

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LA Angels (7-6) @ Boston (7-6)
— Anderson is 2-0, 0.00 in two starts (14 IP).
— Angels are 2-0 in his starts.
— under 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 02-0
— He is 1-0, 5.02 in three starts vs Boston.

— Angels are 3-5 in their last eight games.
— They’re 5-3 on road.
— under 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 5-14
— record in first 5 innings: 5-9
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2.2-4

— Bello is 1-1, 4.96 in three starts.
— Red Sox are 2-1 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He is 0-2, 6.52 in two starts vs Anaheim

— Boston lost five of last seven games.
— Red Sox are 1-4 at home.
— under 3-2 home games
— scored run in first inning: 5-14
— record in first 5 innings: 9-3-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-3.1-5

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Texas (8-7) @ Houston (5-11)
— Eovaldi is 1-0, 1.45 in his three starts.
— Texas is 2-1 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0-2
— He is 3-4, 4.42 in ten starts vs Houston.

— Rangers are 2-5 in their last seven games.
— They’re 3-2 on road.
— under 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 6-15
— record in first 5 innings: 6-4-5
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4-4.1

— Javier is 1-0, 1.65 in three starts.
— Houston is 1-2 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0-1
— He is 5-1, 3.84 in ten starts vs Texas.

— Houston lost 11 of its first 16 games.
— Astros are 3-6 at home.
— under 5-4 at home
— scored run in first inning: 6-16
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7.1-5-3

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San Francisco (6-9) @ Tampa Bay (8-7)
— Snell allowed 3 runs in 3 IP (72 PT) in his first ‘24 start.
— San Francisco is 0-1 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1
— He tossed 6 shutout IP, in his one start against the Rays.
— He pitched for Tampa Bay from 2016-20.

— Giants are 4-8 in their last 12 games.
— They’re 3-6 on road.
— under 6-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 4-10-1
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-2

— bullpen game

— Tampa Bay won five of last seven games.
— Rays are 4-5 at home.
— under 4-2 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 5-15
— record in first 5 innings: 7-5-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-5-4

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Milwaukee (10-3) @ Baltimore (8-6)
— Rea is 2-0, 2.45 in two starts.
— Milwaukee is 2-0 in his starts.
— under 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0
— He threw 5 shutout IP, in his one start vs Baltimore.

— Brewers are 5-1 in their last six games.
— They’re 7-1 on road.
— over 7-1-1 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 4-13
— record in first 5 innings: 11-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-5.2

— Burnes is 2-0, 1.93 in three starts.
— Baltimore is 3-0 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-3
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1
— He pitched for Milwaukee from 2018-23.

— Baltimore is 3-4 in its last seven games.
— Orioles are 4-4 at home.
— over 4-0 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 3-14
— record in first 5 innings: 5-8-1
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-5-5

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Colorado (4-11) @ Toronto (7-8)
— Freeland is 0-2, 17.72 in his three starts.
— Colorado is 1-2 in his starts.
— over 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Toronto.

— Rockies are 4-11 in their first 15 games.
— They’re 2-7 on road.
— over 6-3 in their road games
— scored run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 4-9-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-2

— Berrios is 2-0, 1.45 in three starts.
— Toronto is 3-0 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 01-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He threw 7.2 scoreless IP, in his one start vs Colorado.

— Toronto is 3-4 in its last seven games.
— Blue Jays are 3-2 at home.
— under 7-3 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 5-15
— record in first 5 innings: 4-8-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-5.1-5.1

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Kansas City (10-5) @ NY Mets (6-8)
— Ragans is 0-1, 2.55 in his three starts.
— Kansas City is 1-2 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He threw 6 shutout IP, in his one start against the Mets.

— Royals won eight of their last nine games.
— They’re 2-3 on the road.
— under 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 6-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-3-4
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-2-4

— Butto allowed one run in 6 IP (90 PT) in his first ‘24 start.
— New York is 1-0 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Kansas City.

— New York is 6-3 in its last nine games.
— Mets are 2-6 at home.
— over 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 3-14
— record in first 5 innings: 5-5-4
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-4-5.1

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Cincinnati (8-6) @ White Sox (2-12)
— Ashcraft is 1-1, 6.94 in two starts.
— Cincinnati is 1-1 in his starts.
— over 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1
— He gave up 8 runs in 1.2 IP, in his one start vs the White Sox.

— Reds are 5-4 in their last nine games.
— They’re 4-1 on road.
— over 3-1-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 2-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-1
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2-3.1

— Soroka is 0-1, 6.14 in three starts.
— Chicago is 1-2 in his starts.
— over 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He gave up a run in 5.2 IP, in his one start vs Cincinnati.

— White Sox lost 12 of first 14 games.
— Chicago is 1-6 at home.
— over 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 3-14
— record in first 5 innings: 3-7-4
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-6.1-4.1

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Cubs (8-6) @ Seattle (6-9)
— Assad is 1-0, 1.64 in two starts.
— Chicago is 1-1 in his starts.
— over 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0
— He hasn’t pitched against Seattle.

— Cubs are 2-3 in their last five games.
— They’re 3-5 on road.
— under 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 3-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-4-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-3.2

— Castillo is 0-3, 6.89 in his three starts.
— Seattle is 0-3 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-3
— He is 7-5, 3.64 in 17 starts vs Chicago.

— Seattle lost seven of last ten games.
— Mariners are 4-5 at home.
— under 11-3 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 3-9-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2.2-3

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Washington (6-8) @ Oakland (6-9)
— Williams is 2-0, 2.70 in his two starts.
— Washington is 2-0 in his starts.
— under 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0
— He is 0-0, 7.94 in three games (2 starts) against the A’s.

— Nationals are 4-2 in their last six games.
— They’re 4-4 on the road.
— under 7-1 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 1-14
— record in first 5 innings: 5-8-1
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3.1-4

— Wood is 0-1, 8.03 in his three starts.
— Oakland is 1-2 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He is 6-6, 3.52 in 16 starts vs Washington.

— A’s won five of their last seven games.
— Oakland is 2-7 at home.
— under 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 6-9
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-3.2-4

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Sunday, 04/14/2024 (965) TEXAS vs. (966) HOUSTON
Favoring: TEXAS on the money line.
HOUSTON is 3-14 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 3.1, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (969) COLORADO vs. (970) TORONTO
Favoring: TORONTO on the money line.
COLORADO is 4-45 (-36.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +200 or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 2.8, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (975) CINCINNATI vs. (976) CHI WHITE SOX
Favoring: CINCINNATI on the money line.
CINCINNATI is 18-4 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 6.1, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (965) TEXAS vs. (966) HOUSTON
Favoring: TEXAS on the money line.
HOUSTON is 2-11 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a win by 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 3.1, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 4*)

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Sunday, 04/14/2024 (971) KANSAS CITY vs. (972) NY METS
Favoring: KANSAS CITY against the spread.
NY METS are 10-35 (-31.5 Units) against the run line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY METS 4.1, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (975) CINCINNATI vs. (976) CHI WHITE SOX
Favoring: CINCINNATI against the spread.
CINCINNATI is 43-16 (+25.5 Units) against the run line after 2 straight games where they committed no errors over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 5.8, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (963) MINNESOTA vs. (964) DETROIT
Favoring: DETROIT against the spread.
DETROIT is 17-3 (+15.1 Units) against the run line after a game where they had 4 or less hits over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 4.7, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (965) TEXAS vs. (966) HOUSTON
Favoring: TEXAS against the spread.
TEXAS is 17-2 (+15.1 Units) against the run line in road games after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 5.1, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Old Post 04-14-24 03:52 PM
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Sunday, 04/14/2024 (951) PITTSBURGH vs. (952) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: Under on the total.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.2, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (951) PITTSBURGH vs. (952) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: Under on the total.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.2, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (967) MILWAUKEE vs. (968) BALTIMORE
Favoring: Under on the total.
MILWAUKEE is 20-5 UNDER (+14.4 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 04/14/2024 (961) NY YANKEES vs. (962) CLEVELAND
Favoring: Under on the total.
CLEVELAND is 22-6 UNDER (+15.7 Units) after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 3.9, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 3*)

Old Post 04-14-24 04:36 PM
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