There’s nothing quite like the heart of clay-court season, which truly begins with the Monte Carlo Masters in France. This is a tournament that ranks just below the four Grand Slams in terms of importance. And while the field for this event is smaller, it’s absolutely loaded with talent. Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will all be out there for this event, but it’s Andrey Rublev who is the defending champion here. Those four, along with several other remarkable players, will be gunning for the first Masters 1000 title of 2024 on the dirt.

Monte Carlo Masters Quick Thoughts

We’re entering a string of massive clay-court events and the style of play on the ATP Tour is about to change drastically. While Indian Wells and Miami played slow for hard-court tournaments, those were fast compared to what we’re about to see in Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. These next four events are considered Category 1s in speed, according to ITF Court Pace Rating. So, while power is always in important in tennis, backing players with the ability to move is important during clay-court season. You also want to consider players that can hit powerful shots with a lot of topspin.

A heavy ball that can push an opponent back is big at this time of year. There’s a reason Rafael Nadal is one of the most dominant clay-court players ever. Sure, he’s one of the best grinders in the history of the sport. But nobody can pound topspin-heavy shots deep in the court like Nadal, who is unfortunately out indefinitely as he continues to deal with injuries.

Jannik Sinner To Win Monte Carlo Masters (+300 – 2 units):

Sinner lucked out with his draw this week, as he won’t see Djokovic or Alcaraz until a potential final. That means that Sinner just needs to worry about guys like Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev. Well, I’m not very worried about Medvedev getting to the semifinals in a clay-court tournament. He has historically struggled on the surface. And I’m going to put a little something on Zverev to protect against him beating Sinner to book a spot in the final.

Most of Sinner’s success has come on hard courts to this point, but he has still won 67.2% of his matches on clay. And with his improved ability as both a server and returner, he should be a contender at all of these tournaments over the next few weeks.

Overall, we’re talking about a guy that is 22-1 on the season. And his loss to Alcaraz in Indian Wells might have gone differently if he didn’t hurt himself diving for a ball. That said, I feel good about Sinner’s draw and am just hoping to get to the final holding a +300 ticket. The odds against Djokovic or Alcaraz would allow for an easy hedge, if you even want one.

Alexander Zverev To Win Monte Carlo Masters (+2000 – 0.5 units):

Zverev is the only player that I believe is standing in Sinner’s way. The 26-year-old is one of the better clay-court players on tour, so he can easily win a tournament over the next few weeks. With that in mind, I’m playing him to win this one. These odds are just way too hard to pass up right now. Zverev went to the quarterfinals in Indian Wells, where he ran into a red-hot Alcaraz. And he played good tennis in Miami before facing a scorching Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinals. Now, Zverev is on a surface that fits his game perfectly. His big serve and ability to track everything down along the baseline will make him tough to beat.

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Taylor Fritz

We have seen up-and-down play from Musetti over the last few weeks, which is an improvement considering how lifeless he was earlier in the year. And Musetti has had a little more success on clay than Fritz throughout his career. However, Musetti is coming off an ugly straight-set loss to Nuno Borges in Estoril. And the unforced errors and overall stretches of sloppiness are hard to overlook against Fritz. The American is just a little bit sturdier than Musetti right now, and he has improved drastically on clay since earlier in his career. Over the last 52 weeks, Fritz is 11-7 on the dirt. And I think his ability to easily hold will be the difference here.

Fritz has the power to serve through these slow conditions, either by rocketing the ball by Musetti or setting up some favorable serve-plus-one opportunities. Meanwhile, Musetti can get a little careless with the ball on his racket. And if he gives Fritz too many opportunities to break, the American will take advantage — especially considering he’ll have more time to pick up serves on the dirt.

Fritz is also 2-0 against Musetti in his career and has never dropped a set against him. And while neither of those matches were on clay, that’s still a mental hurdle Musetti will need to clear.

Bet: Fritz ML (-114 – 2 units)

Corentin Moutet vs. Alexei Popyrin

This is a match in which I simply trust one player on clay a lot more than the other. And that player is the 99th-ranked Moutet, who is favored over the world No. 46. Popyrin has had a good start to the year and has a booming serve, but the clay is going to slow that down and allow Moutet to get into rallies. And once a few balls are in play, Moutet is going to have a massive edge over Popyrin. Moutet is just a very good defender along the baseline, and he can also rip winners when he has some time. I expect him to thoroughly dominate in long exchanges, and I also think he’ll have a rather easy time holding. Moutet might not have the most powerful serve in the world, but he gets good spin on it and it sets him up for quick winners.

Moutet is also 3-0 against Popyrin in his career, with all of those wins coming on hard courts. There’s no reason he shouldn’t move to 4-0 against the Australian now that they’ll be playing on the dirt.

Bet: Moutet ML (-143 – 1.5 units)

Laslo Djere vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Djere and Tsitsipas met in Monte Carlo two years ago, when the Greek star earned a 7-5, 7-6 (1) win. Tsitsipas is a two-time Monte Carlo champion, and he’s going to feel some excitement getting back here. But I don’t think that’s enough for him to overcome his poor recent form. Tsitsipas has lost three of his last five matches, and his most recent loss was the most concerning. Tsitsipas got beat up on by an out-of-form Denis Shapovalov at Indian Wells. That was a match he really should have been able to figure out, but his backhand is just all over the place right now. And his serve has gotten a little worse over the last year. That is enough to make him very beatable. And I’m not even taking him to lose.

Djere hasn’t played well in recent weeks, but he’s a proven clay-court winner. And he has the power required to give Tsitsipas problems along the baseline. Djere, who isn’t a great server, can also make his job easier by serving to Tsitsipas’ backhand side. That said, I like Djere to battle and make this a very close match. I also think he has the ability to pull off the upset.

Bet: Djere +4.5 Games (-128)

Jaume Munar vs. Roman Safiullin

This is a little more juice than I’m normally comfortable with, but Munar should get the job done against Safiullin. Munar might not be as good as Safiullin on other surfaces, but he has 62 wins on clay in his career. And he’s 14-12 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. Meanwhile, Safiullin has played a total of 12 clay-court matches at the ATP level, despite being the same age as Munar. With that in mind, the Spaniard has a huge edge in experience on this surface.

Safiullin is also a player that can be a bit erratic, as he likes to hit for power from both wings on the baseline. That’s not an issue when he’s playing well, but Safiullin has lost three of his last four matches and is just 4-8 in the 12 matches he has played in 2024. So, he’s not finding the court regularly with that power. And if he’s spraying unforced errors in this match, Munar will get more out of him by just being a wall along the baseline.

Munar also has an absurd 32.2% break percentage on clay over the last 52 weeks. He’s going to make Safiullin uncomfortable when it’s his turn to serve, and the Russian is a shaky server to begin with.

Bet: Munar ML (-175)

Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Facundo Diaz Acosta

Diaz Acosta lost his second qualifying match to Sumit Nagal, but he got into the main draw anyway. Now, the lefty will look to find a way to beat Roberto Bautista Agut. Last year, this match would have had Bautista Agut as a favorite of -250 or more. However, the Spaniard has really struggled in 2024. He’s just 5-8 on the season and that’s not great after a 2023 season in which he went 17-21. Bautista Agut still has a booming forehand, but he has gotten a lot worse as both a server and a returner. And his movement along the baseline is becoming an issue. He used to be a tremendous defender. Age is clearly getting to Bautista Agut in a big way.

With all of that in mind, Diaz Acosta should be able to find a way to win this match, even if he has struggled a bit since bursting on the scene in February. He just needs to do everything he can to prolong rallies, as Bautista Agut isn’t in a position to win long, physical matches anymore.

Bet: Diaz Acosta ML (+115)

Zhizhen Zhang vs. Marcos Giron

Giron was playing some great tennis in February, as he made a final in Dallas and backed it up with a run to the semis in Delray Beach. But those were hard-court events, and Giron was really in a nice groove. He was absolutely punishing shots, even on the move. However, Giron has lost that form completely, and he comes into this event after having been blown out by Luciano Darderi in the quarterfinals in Houston. Giron also lost in the second round in Los Cabos, and he followed it up with opening-round losses in Indian Wells and Miami.

Giron just isn’t much of a slow-court player and I think he lacks the weapons required to beat Zhang on clay. Zhang might not be playing all that well right now, but I trust his power and all-around approach to be a little too much for his opponent here. Zhang is also 10-7 on clay over the last 52 weeks.

Bet: Zhang ML (-125 – 1.5 units)

Jack Draper vs. Hubert Hurkacz

Hurkacz won a title in Estoril last week and he’s the more known player between these two. So, people will naturally look to back Hurkacz here. However, Hurkacz’s serve, one of the biggest weapons in the sport, is not as dangerous on these courts. That will give Draper, the better baseline player and overall athlete, the opening he needs to get the job done here. Draper actually dismantled Hurkacz at the US Open in 2023, beating him in straight sets on a court that should have favored the Pole. So, I feel pretty good about Draper’s chances and like him as a plus-money play here. Draper also hits with a bit more spin than Hurkacz, which is important in Monte Carlo. That’s not something I’m willing to ignore when looking at Draper, who is a guy with the ability to be a successful clay-court player. Hurkacz should also be a little fatigued after a win last week that featured some battles.

Bet: Draper ML (+120)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Sebastian Korda

This match opened with Davidovich Fokina as a -135 favorite. But you can now get the Spaniard at even-money odds. Of course, that means that some heavy money came in on Korda. But you can’t ignore the fact that this is a clay-court match. And while Korda might have an all-court game, he’s just 18-15 on clay in his ATP career. And he’s just 1-4 on the surface in the last 52 weeks. Meanwhile, Davidovich Fokina is 39-34 on clay on his ATP career, and he has been to the finals of this very tournament. With that in mind, I give him a slight edge over Korda in these conditions, so I can’t get on board with an implied probability of 50.0%. If these two played this match 10 times, I’d say Davidovich Fokina wins six of them. That said, this is a value play for me.

The serving in this match has the potential to be pretty ugly, with neither one of these players being trustworthy there. So, I’m backing the player with the baseline game that I trust more, and I give an edge to Davidovich Fokina there. Korda is viewed as one of the best ball strikers in the sport, but he can rack up unforced errors when he’s not locked in. And he generally has issues staying 100% focused out there. Korda also hits a flatter ball and that isn’t quite as impactful on slow courts like these. Davidovich Fokina hits with heavier topspin and that should allow him to control points.

Davidovich Fokina’s raw clay-court Elo rating is also over 200 points higher than Korda’s. I don’t often rely on those numbers, but that’s a pretty substantial difference.

Bet: Davidovich Fokina ML (+100)

Sumit Nagal vs. Holger Rune

Rune can be an incredible clay-court player when he’s at his best. However, he hasn’t played a singles match on clay since last summer. Meanwhile, Nagal is 4-1 on the dirt since the start of April. And he has scored wins over Moutet, Facundo Diaz Acosta and Matteo Arnaldi in that span. All of those players are difficult to beat. So, Nagal comes into this match with quite a bit of momentum, and that should help the top-ranked Indian keep things tight against Rune.

These two played a competitive match at last year’s Davis Cup, where Rune won 7-5, 6-3 on hard courts. But these conditions, along with Rune’s lack of match play on clay, should help Nagal keep things even closer. Nagal is a tough baseliner that plays with real urgency and aggression. So, he can move Rune from side to side and then take his chances for some winners. Nagal is also capable of coming up and winning points at the net. That said, if Rune isn’t precise with his passing shots, he’ll have his work cut out for him here.

Bet: Nagal +4.5 Games (-135)

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic

Musetti beat Djokovic in three sets in Monte Carlo last year, and you’d have to be crazy to think the 24-time Grand Slam champion won’t remember that. Like Michael Jordan, this is another G.O.A.T that takes things personally. Djokovic, who faced some question marks before his straight-set beatdown of Roman Safiullin last round, also happens to have the perfect game to take advantage of this version of Musetti. The Italian hits absolute bombs from the baseline, but he also mixes in a ton of unforced errors. Well, Djokovic plays the type of defense required to absorb Musetti’s pace and force the Italian into mistakes.

Djokovic also looks laser-focused at the moment. The Serbian just made a coaching change, as he clearly isn’t enjoying seeing guys like Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner pass him. And his dominant win over Safiullin was his first match with Nenad Zimonjic in his box. This coaching change, along with a weird start to 2024, means that Djokovic won’t take Monte Carlo lightly. He has had trouble at this event in recent years, but he seems poised to make a deep run and potentially win it. And I expect him to take care of Musetti somewhat easily on the way.

Bet: Djokovic -1.5 Sets (-146)

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Ugo Humbert

Humbert is the 15th-ranked player in the world and is in the middle of the best season of his career. The Frenchman is 17-7 and already has two titles to his name. However, Humbert is just 11-24 on clay in his career. And he’s also just 3-6 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. Meanwhile, Sonego is a tremendous clay-court player, as he’s 49-47 on the dirt in his career and 11-9 over the last 52 weeks. On top of that, Sonego beat Humbert when these two met at this tournament last year, 3-6, 7-5, 7-5. He also followed it up with a straight-set win over Humbert at the French Open.

Humbert might be a better player than Sonego, but it’s hard not to give the Italian an edge when talking about clay. So, I’m taking Sonego to force a decider. And I’m also sprinkling the moneyline here. I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t make this a match, even with this being a down season for him. Sonego is just a better mover than Humbert, and he understands the intricacies of the clay game.

Bet: Sonego +1.5 Sets (-160 – 1.5 units) & Sonego ML (+172 – 0.5 units)

Alex De Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic
I had Djokovic to beat Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets yesterday and the 24-time Grand Slam champion got the job done. Well, I’m going to a similar play on Friday, as I’m taking the Under on the game total. It’s just hard to picture De Minaur really giving Djokovic a run for his money, if the Serbian is healthy. De Minaur is just 23-28 on clay at the ATP level, and that’s a far cry from his 61.0% win percentage on grass and 65.0% win percentage on hard courts. De Minaur does have a pretty good game for clay, as he’s a very good mover and is capable of winning physical matches. However, De Minaur mostly wins his matches by outlasting his opponents. And there’s really no outlasting Djokovic.

De Minaur will undoubtedly dig deep and make Djokovic work his butt off to win this. But the Australian just doesn’t have the power required to put points away against Djokovic on slower courts. He also isn’t a good enough server to consistently hold against the greatest returner in tennis history.

The reason I’m taking the Under instead of Djokovic to win in straight sets is that the Serbian was having some trouble with the heat and humidity in Monte Carlo yesterday. He limped to the finish line in the second set, and he was visibly struggling on changeovers. So, if Djokovic doesn’t recover in time, I want to be protected in the event he completely fails to show up and De Minaur beats him in straight sets — like he did at the United Cup in January. But Djokovic is the greatest player of all time, and his team knows how to get him right after a match. So, I think it’s far more likely he comes out looking good and smokes De Minaur.

Bet: Under 21.5 Games (-123)

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jannik Sinner

I do think Sinner will win this match in straight sets. Tsitsipas has turned back the clock in Monte Carlo, where he is a two-time champion. The Greek star hasn’t dropped a single set, despite having faced Laslo Djere, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov. And he has looked rather sharp from the baseline all week. But looking sharp against great players is one thing. Doing it against Sinner, in his current form, is another.

Sinner, who is 25-1 this year, has the power to really move Tsitsipas around the baseline, and the Italian is going to attack his opponent’s weak backhand relentlessly here. Not only will Sinner pepper that side in baseline exchanges, but it’ll also be his target when the Italian is serving. Darren Cahill is one of the better strategists in the sport right now, and he’ll have a clear and direct plan for Sinner to execute. And the reality is that Tsitsipas’ time beating up on Sinner is over. The Greek star won five of their first six matches, but Sinner has won each of their last two. And the Italian didn’t drop a set in either of them. It’s hard to see that changing on clay, where Tsitsipas’ serve only becomes easier to return. Sinner is also a much better player now than he was when these two met in December.

Lean: Sinner -1.5 Sets (-110)

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Casper Ruud –

Tsitsipas was a little fortunate to get by Jannik Sinner in the semifinals. The Italian seemingly secured a double-break lead in the final set, going up 4-1 on a double fault by Tsitsipas. However, the umpire thought it was in and Tsitsipas went on to win the game to make it 3-2. From there, Sinner just collapsed both physically and mentally. And Tsitsipas was able to move on to the final, where he’s now looking to win this event for the third time. But Ruud’s semi-final result was a little more impressive, with the Norwegian earning a 6-4, 1-6, 6-4 win over Novak Djokovic. Of course, the 24-time Grand Slam champion wasn’t at his best in that match. But an argument can be made that Djokovic played his best match of the tournament in that one, and it still wasn’t enough to get by Ruud. And Ruud will now be eager to win his first 1000-level title — and first title above the 250 level.

There’s no denying that Tsitsipas plays his best tennis in Monte Carlo, and returning to this venue has gotten the Greek star out of a recent funk. But I do think it’s hard to pass up on Ruud at plus-money odds here. These two just met on a slow hard court in Los Cabos in February, when Ruud earned a 6-4, 7-6 (4) victory over Tsitsipas. So, the Norwegian won the most recent meeting between these two, and he also won the last time they played on clay. That was back in 2021, when Ruud beat Tsitsipas 7-6 (4), 6-4 in Madrid. Of course, both matches were extremely close, so you can realistically say this one can go either way. But with it being something of a coin toss, how can you not back the player with the more favorable odds?

The motivation is also going to be there for Ruud. This is his best surface by a wide margin and he’s staring down a final without Djokovic, Sinner or Rafael Nadal on the other side of the net. This will be Ruud’s best chance to win his first Masters 1000 title, and he should show up with some real determination because of that. And Ruud also has the ability to really frustrate Tsitsipas on clay. There aren’t many players in the Top 25 that hit with as much topspin as Ruud. So, the Norwegian is going to pound the ball deep and try to push Tsitsipas back when they’re battling along the baseline. And if Ruud is really hitting his spots from back there, he can exploit Tsitsipas’ weak one-handed backhand. That shot has held up throughout the week for Tsitsipas, but he doesn’t like when the ball is hit high on that side. Ruud is going to test that.

Bet: Ruud ML (+122)