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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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NCAA Baseball Lagniappe
Even though the sports betting calendar is about to get jammed with NBA and NHL playoffs, MLB games every night, and the golf major season, college baseball is still worth some of your time and units.
This sport is a major focus of my spring and early-season handicapping and betting and I always suggest to anyone willing to listen to do likewise.
The daily odds board is softer than MLB since the books get less college action and therefore rely predominantly on an algorithm for the matchups compared to the pro ranks.
When the MLB board gets a lot of play based on variables like pitching matchups or exhausted bullpens, all that action forces the books to alter the lines.
That rarely happens for individual college games. So if someone is handicapping the pitching availability of Dallas Baptist in the second of a three-game series, and it appears advantageous for the Patriots, that bettor is one of the few targeting that side. That leads to a slight edge. The books don’t alter their college baseball overnight lines until an algorithm is triggered.
Rarely is there an edge in the bettor’s favor for an MLB game. On a daily basis, the books likely know more about the pitching matchups, injuries, travel and umpires than you do.
Don’t let the lack of household names impact your decision to bet on college baseball. If Georgia’s Charlie Condon hits a homerun to win a game, it pays the same as if Bryce Harper did it.
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04-13-24 11:26 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Rest of the SEC
Any mention of favorites must include the other top SEC programs since the sport’s best conference has produced the last four College World Series winners.
Texas A&M made an early season move up the odds board after rolling through the non- conference schedule. The Aggies have four losses – all during SEC play – and should be considered one of the better teams in the conference, probably not the best though.
That makes their current 10-1 odds somewhat concerning. Revisit the Aggies if they can stay afloat within the SEC.
LSU is just 3-9 in conference play, however last year’s overall winner comes in near the top of the board at +1200. The Tigers must remain on the betting radar since last season it also took until later in the year for them to become a championship club once their starting rotation and bullpen issues were figured out. That could happen again in 2024.
The April lull for LSU may create better odds for the Tigers on the SEC tournament futures board.
Florida (+1300), last year’s runner up, is also underperforming so far. Take the same course of betting action with Florida as LSU. This team can get hot, especially with Jac Caglianone, the best two-way player in the country.
Vanderbilt (+1800) is in the mix for a SEC regular season title and that means the Commodores are in the favorites group. Perhaps a bettor wins a few extra units during the Masters, keep those dollars handy to see what Vandy, which recently took two out of three from LSU, does during upcoming series against Texas A&M and Florida.
If Vandy takes both series, consider making a futures bet on them while the games are still being played. Any change to the odds board will come a day later or so. If the Commodores win those two series, the 18-1 will be history.
Be leery of Kentucky. The current SEC leaders come in with much higher odds at +4000. Last year the Wildcats also had a strong regular season but fell early in the SEC tournament and then lost to LSU during the Baton Rouge Super Regional. The other top SEC programs prioritize the postseason much more than what happens prior.
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04-13-24 11:28 AM |
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