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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Colorado Buffaloes
Road to the Sweet 16:
First Round vs. No. 12 seed Drake: W 86-72 (Colorado -9.5 | Over 149.5)
Second Round vs. No. 4 seed Kansas State: W 63-50 (Colorado +3.5 | Under 134)
Colorado saw two completely different teams in its first two games. The Buffaloes first faced a Drake team that is offensive-minded and gets up a ton of 3s, before playing a Kansas State team that plays a slow, inside-out game with a focus on defense.
Colorado’s offense looked unstoppable against Drake, which simply just didn’t have the bigs to stop center Aaronette Vonleh. The Buffaloes shot 55.4% from the field and knocked down seven 3s, while the Bulldogs shot 51% from the field and were able to get to the free-throw line 19 times.
Against Kansas State, it was a tie game for the majority of the game up until late in the third when Serena Sundell got called for a flagrant foul. After being tied at 39 apiece, Colorado ended the final five minutes of the third quarter on a 13-3 run. Offense died for both teams in the fourth as the score was deadlocked at 52-46 for nearly five minutes. Kansas State just isn’t equipped to play from behind, and Colorado knocked down its free throws to get another chance at taking down Iowa in the Sweet 16.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Road to the Sweet 16:
First Round vs. No. 16 seed Holy Cross: W 91-65 (Holy Cross +36.5 | Under 157.5)
Second Round vs. No. 8 seed West Virginia: W 64-54 (West Virginia +14.5 | Under 163.5)
The media’s darling, Caitlin Clark, and the Iowa Hawkeyes have had it anything but easy on their quest to make it to a second straight national championship game.
Clark did shoot a bit better than her past few games and scored 32 points in the win against West Virginia, but it was an all-out war. Iowa’s season low on field goal attempts coming into the game was 59, but the Hawkeyes only totaled 47 against the Mountaineers. Granted, they spent a lot of time at the free-throw line, going 25-for-30 from the stripe. It was also the first game this season in which Clark was the only Hawkeye to make a 3-pointer, with her teammates going 0-for-8 from distance.
When these two teams met in last years’ Sweet 16, it was extremely close throughout the first half. Colorado went into halftime with a one-point lead before Iowa exploded for 48 second-half points on its way to a 10-point victory.
A lot of people were upset with the foul and free-throw disparity in Iowa’s game against West Virginia, but the Hawkeyes get that everywhere. They do get a lot of calls, but they also take advantage of teams that play physical defense.
It looks like the trendy pick for Iowa games will be taking the 'dog against the spread and the Under. I’m not sure what type of game plan Colorado coach JR Payne will come up with, but I am confident we won’t see consecutive poor shooting games from Iowa. In the six games following a game in which they scored below 70 points, the Hawkeyes are averaging 101.5 PPG, and the Over is 6-0.
The NCAA Tournament is different, but it feels like Clark and company are due for an explosion. You just have to worry if all the pressure is getting to the superstar and her teammates on this last dance.
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03-30-24 05:50 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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LSU Tigers
Road to the Sweet 16:
First Round vs. No. 14 seed Rice: W 70-60 (Rice +28.5 | Under 146.5)
Second Round vs. No. 11 seed MTSU: W 83-56 (LSU -16.5 | Under 140.5)
The defending national champions were tested early in the opening rounds at home.
Rice came out with an excellent game plan in the First Round, and although it never led in the game, it never got down by more than 11 points either. Rice forced LSU into 24 turnovers.
In the Second Round, LSU found itself down nine early in the third quarter; but after a timeout, Kim Mulkey’s squad went ballistic. The Tigers utilized their size and speed to close out the game on layups and a whole lot of free throws, amassing 30 free throws in the second half alone. LSU closed the last 18 minutes on a 51-15 run.
Flau'jae Johnson has been the catalyst for this team on both ends of the floor, averaging 19.2 PPG over her last six games
UCLA Bruins
Road to the Sweet 16:
First Round vs. No. 15 seed Cal Baptist: W 84-55 (UCLA -28, Over 153.5)
Second Round vs. No. 7 seed Creighton: W 67-63 (CU +15.5, Under 140.5)
Cori Close’s squad didn’t look to be dominant to start its game against Cal Baptist, especially on the defensive end, but the Bruins closed the final five minutes on a 16-2 run.
Sophomore center Lauren Betts, who didn't play in the first game, looked to have a huge size advantage against Creighton in the second round. UCLA was certainly tested, as the trio of Emma Ronsiek, Lauren Jensen and Morgan Maly combined for 52 of Creighton’s 63 points. The Bluejays led by double digits early in the third quarter before UCLA sophomore guard Kiki Rice started to take over, leading the way for the Bruins with 24 points.
This is the matchup everyone has been anticipating, as two of the national title contenders will face off in Albany, New York. In my opinion, UCLA is more talented, has more depth and has proven it can beat anyone.
I do, however, see a mismatch in terms of coaching, experience and ability to use size. Angel Reese and Aneesah Morrow will not make things easy for the 6’7" Betts. It’s hard to say any pair of bigs rebound better or play harder than Morrow and Reese.
Even with the struggles LSU has had from Louisville transfer Hailey Van Lith, I expect LSU to come out on top in a close, physical game. I also see a lot of feeling each other out and slow possessions to start. The Under is 6-0 in LSU's last 6 NCAA Tournament games outside of the Final Four.
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03-30-24 05:56 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Duke Blue Devils
Road to the Sweet 16
First round vs. No. 10 Richmond: W 72-61 (Duke -10.5, Over 125.5)
Second round vs. No. 2 Ohio State: W 75-63 (Duke +7.5, Over 131.5)
Duke is both the only team to knock off a No. 2 seed and the highest remaining seed left in the tournament. Duke's win over Ohio State was somewhat surprising if you watched the first quarter of their game.
However, Duke’s defense was unrelenting and helped spark the offense as the Blue Devils outscored the Buckeyes 43-27 in the second half.
Junior guard Reigan Richardson was incredible as she scored a game-high 28 points and shot 11-for-18 from the field.
Connecticut Huskies
Road to the Sweet 16
First round vs. No. 14 Jackson State: W 86-64 (JSU +35.5, Over 135.5)
Second round vs. No. 8 Syracuse: W 72-64 (Syracuse +20, Under 144.5)
UConn returns to the Sweet 16 riding the coattails of the 2021 National Player of the Year, Paige Bueckers.
As head coach Geno Auriemma said, there may not be anyone in the country playing better than Bueckers right now. Over her past five games, Bueckers is averaging 28.6 points on 54% shooting, 9.2 rebounds and five assists per game.
UConn needs all that and more if the Huskies want to make it back to another Final Four.
Both these teams are playing their best ball in March. We’ve seen all their games go over this total and I don't expect anything different in this game.
However, I do think this game will be closer than many expect and feel a lot of late free throws down the stretch could play in a role in both hitting the over/under and covering the spread.
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03-30-24 08:56 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Baylor Bears
Road to the Sweet 16
First round vs. No. 12 Vanderbilt: W 80-63 (BU -7.5, Over 132.5)
Second round vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech: W 75-72 (BU +1, Over 133.5)
Baylor was blessed by the committee and placed in a sweet spot to advance.
The Bears got to play an undersized play-in team, Vanderbilt, before playing a shorthanded Virginia Tech squad missing three-time ACC Player of the Year Liz Kitley.
Still, Baylor had to battle, and if it weren't for a career performance from point guard Jada Walker, we'd be talking about Virginia Tech.
USC Trojans
Road to the Sweet 16
First round vs. No. 16 Texas A&M CC: W 87-55 (AMCC +33.5 | Over 126.5)
Second round vs. No. 8 Kansas: W 73-55 (USC +10.5 | Under 130.5)
The PAC-12 Champions look the part of a top seed, and the Trojans' defense is peaking at the right time.
They held both Tournament opponents to 55 points. They also won the rebounding battle against two teams strong on the glass.
Player of the Year finalist (and Freshman!) JuJu Watkins scored 51 in the first two games, pouring in buckets at all three levels. She leads the country in free-throw attempts as the nation's highest-scoring Freshman in the nation.
The line feels like a trap.
Forgive me if that's the case. This number is disrespecting USC.
The Trojans are playing well and have arguably the second-best player in the Tournament on their side.
They'll also have a massive advantage in size, which should play out in the paint.
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03-30-24 11:00 PM |
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