The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Market Moves 3/26
7 p.m. ET: Arkansas State vs High Point (-2.5, 158.5)
This CBI semifinal will be played at Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida. Arkansas State (20-16) is the 4-seed and just outlasted Montana 74-61 in yesterday’s quarterfinal. On the flip side, High Point (26-8) is the 1-seed and just crushed Cleveland State 93-74 yesterday. This line opened with High Point listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with top seed High Point. However, despite receiving 77% of spread bets we’ve seen High Point remain stagnant at -2.5. Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would see them rise from -2.5 to -3 or -3.5. The fact that this line hasn’t budged despite heavy public support signals a sharp line freeze on Arkansas State plus the points, with books reluctant to raise the spread for fear of giving out a better number to Red Wolves backers. Arkansas State is only receiving 23% of spread bets, making them the top contrarian play of the night. Ken Pom has High Point winning the game by two points (86-84), which provides a decent edge on Arkansas State plus the hook (+2.5). Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 162 to 158.5. Both of these teams played yesterday, which would match as a back-to-back “tired legs” under system play.
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03-26-24 10:23 PM |
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