The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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6 p.m. ET: Baylor at Texas Tech (-2, 147.5)
Baylor (22-8, ranked 11th) has won three straight games and just outlasted Texas 93-85. Similarly, Texas Tech (21-9) has won two straight games and just brushed aside Oklahoma State 75-58. This line opened with Texas Tech listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with Baylor, who has the better record and ranking. However, despite 76% of spread bets taking Baylor, we’ve seen this line remain frozen at Texas Tech -2. Normally, if you see a team getting such lopsided support you would see the line move in their favor. The fact this line hasn’t budged signals a sharp line freeze on Texas Tech, with pros fading trendy dog Baylor and instead backing the unpopular home favorite. Texas Tech is only receiving 24% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Texas Tech has the better free-throw shooting (78% vs 74%), which could prove crucial in a tight game. Pros seem to be specifically targeting Texas Tech on the moneyline (-130), as the Red Raiders are receiving only 19% of moneyline bets but 59% of moneyline dollars. Texas Tech is 14-2 at home. Baylor is 4-4 on the road. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 27-19 straight up (59%) this season and 70-32 straight up (69%) since the start of last season. Big 12 home favorites are 66-21 straight up (76%) in conference play. This is a revenge spot for Texas Tech, who lost to Baylor on the road 79-73 in early February. It is also Senior Night for Texas Tech.
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03-09-24 05:08 PM |
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