let's get after'em this weekend
GL

Best OVER teams this EPL season

Wolves 16-7
Brentford 15-7
Newcastle 15-8
Luton Town 14-7-1
Man City 14-7-1
Bournemouth 14-8
Brighton 14-9
Aston Villa 14-9

OVERs are 133-94-1 (59%) this season

Odds to be top goalscorer in EPL at BetMGM

Erling Haaland -300
Mohamed Salah +700
Heung Min Son +1200
Dominic Solanke +1200
Ollie Watkins +1600
Richarlison +2500

18% of bets (most) are on Haaland to be top scorer.

Odds to be relegated from EPL at BetMGM

Sheffield United -5000
Burnley -650
Luton Town +125
Nottingham Forest +175
Everton +300
Crystal Palace +650
Brentford +700
Fulham +2000

Odds to win EPL at BetMGM

Man City -175
Liverpool +250
Arsenal +600
Tottenham +3300
Aston Villa +3300
All other teams +50000 or longer odds

Highest Ticket%:
Arsenal 22%

Highest Handle%: ManCity
26%

Soccer in Spain is back for another full slate of matches this weekend, starting with Real Betis and Cádiz at the Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla on Friday night.

The visitors made multiple signings in the January transfer window to bolster a squad pushing for European places next season.

Meanwhile, the hosts have picked up points under the new manager, but they are still in the relegation zone in 18th.

No team in Spain was busier than Manuel Pellegrini’s side in the transfer window, who brought in four new players to the club. Three of those signings were also made on deadline day.

One of the signings is American Johnny Cardoso from Internacional in Brazil. He may be one more for the future, but it will be interesting to follow his progress for the United States Men’s National Team.

Two arrivals that should make a big difference are Pablo Fornals (West Ham) and Chimy Ávila (Osasuna). They should slot in right away, especially with a few key injuries.

In this match, Pellegrini will be without Isco and Ayoze Pérez. The two have been primary attackers this season for Betis.

After sacking their manager in January, Cádiz have turned to Mauricio Pellegrino to save the club from relegation. He returns to the Spanish top flight after last managing Leganes in 2019.

The ex-Southampton boss has spent the last three years in Latin America coaching for different clubs. He is known for his time at Alaves, where he guided the Basque club to a Copa del Rey final in 2017.

He is undefeated in his two matches in charge so far, picking up impressive draws against Athletic Club and Villarreal.

The team hasn’t won in the league since the beginning of September. So, the pressure is on for Pellegrino to keep the club in the top division.

If you start first with Cádiz, this has been a team all season that has been very good defensively at home. The squad has only allowed averages of 0.85 expected goals and 1.18 big scoring chances per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.

Both of those metrics would rank inside the top five in La Liga. This is also what we’ve seen under Pellegrino.

It is a very small sample size, but his two games in charge have both ended with no goals on a combined 1.25 xG per match.

On the other side of the field, Betis have not been a side that has generated a lot of chances on the road. In fact, Pellegrini’s team would rank in the bottom six in both xG and big chances created per match away from home.

You now throw in the fact that Isco and Perez will be out, which makes up over half of the club’s league goals and assists this season. Plus, Betis have new attackers who need time to gel with a new team.

Bologna are Serie A’s surprise package this season. The Rossoblu are only three points shy of the top-four and enjoyed an eye-catching run to the Coppa Italia quarter-finals, eliminating table-topping Inter Milan along the way.

Bologna’s impressive efforts have drawn admiring glances from elsewhere, with head coach Thiago Motta attracting interest from Barcelona.

Motta insists his full focus is on the Rossoblu and last weekend’s 4-2 victory over Sassuolo was a welcome first success in five and puts the overachievers back in the mix for European football.

And I’m happy to back the underrated outfit ahead of Sunday’s home showdown with Lecce seeing as Bologna are available to support at a generous 1.8.

Bologna’s price appeals at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara considering the Rossoblu have suffered just two home defeats across all competitions thus far, one of which arrived on the opening day.

In Serie A encounters, Motta’s men have posted W8-D2-L0 here since August, conceding only five goals in the process.

In contrast, Lecce head to Emilia-Romagna still searching for their first away success of the season (W0-D5-L6). Examine that road record further and we can see Roberto D’Aversa’s team have been beaten in six of seven trips to teams inside the top-11, whilst they’ve also managed to score a paltry tally of just nine goals on their travels.


With Lecce managing just three clean sheets across the whole campaign, it’s hard to see them containing Bologna here.

The 2.Bundesliga has been great fun to follow this season.

Germany’s second-tier has seen a chunky 63% of this season’s fixtures featuring winning Over 2.5 Goals selections with the same hit-rate occurring for Both Teams To Score backers; the division is averaging 3.18 goals per-game and Sunday’s showdown between Kaiserslautern and Paderborn promises plenty.

Despite booking their place in the DFB Pokal semi-finals, Kaiserslautern have slipped into relegation trouble following a disastrous run of league results since October’s international break (W1-D1-L9), yet the bulk of the damage has been done on their travels. Die Roten Teufel boast a reasonable (W5-D1-L4) return when entertaining 2.Bundesliga opposition.

Goals have also been a constant in Kaiserslautern contests thus far. FCK top the tree for successful Over 2.5 Goals wagers with a huge 85% of their league dates producing three strikes or more; with Die Roten Teufel on the look out for a first shutout of the season, it’s no surprise to see home games often escalating into high-scoring shootouts.

Nine of 10 matches at Kaiserslautern’s Fritz-Walter-Stadion base have provided Over 2.5 Goals profit with eight of those outings banking in the BTTS column.

Those encounters averaged 3.90 goals and 3.29 Expected Goals (xG); with visitors Paderborn also producing exceptional goal trends when playing away, we could be in for a treat.

Mid-table Paderborn remain in the promotion race, though most importantly for our proposed wager, the visitors have covered the Over 2.5 line in eight of 10 away days with seven of those showdowns also clicking in the Both Teams To Score market.

Those games averaged 3.2 goals with an xG output of 3.02 xG reinforcing our goal expectations.

Man City look to keep pace with Arsenal and Liverpool in the title race when they host Everton.

City are finally fully healthy for the first time this season and are clicking on all cylinders after a resounding 3-1 win at Brentford on Monday. The Cityzens are still the odds-on favorites to win the Premier League, but facing an underrated team like Everton is always tricky, which they found out in the previous meeting, going down a goal early.

Everton are currently in the relegation zone because of their 10-point deduction, but this team really should be challenging for a finish in the top half of the table. Sean Dyche has Everton as the eighth-best team by expected goal differential and they have caused problems for a lot of the top teams in England.

With Kevin De Bruyne finally healthy Pep Guardiola was the world at his disposal from a tactical perspective. What he has done is switched Manchester City to a diamond midfield with Alvarez acting as the No. 10, De Bruyne and Foden acting as double No. 8s and Rodri as the holding midfielder.

That allows Kevin De Bruyne to operate in between the lines and it also allows Foden to do the same. With all the attention being paid to De Bruyne, Foden has flourished. For most of the season, Manchester City didn't have a true right winger since Mahrez left, so they've been having to use Foden out wide, but he is truly at his best when he's playing in between the lines.

So, it makes it really hard for opposing teams to try and either press them or be effective in a low block. Brentford were able to do it for an extended period of time, but eventually Manchester City got through with Foden for a hat trick.

Manchester City have shown some vulnerabilities when playing teams that primarily play in transition or are good on set pieces. Brentford created a couple golden chances on the break and off of corners against Manchester City. Everton are the most efficient team off of both corners and set pieces, while Manchester City are 11th in xG per set piece allowed.

Everton did a fantastic job of being active pressing out of their mid-block and not allowing Tottenham to play through the middle. It’s something they’ve been doing at an elite level under Dyche all season long because Everton have allowed the fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League and have forced the most high turnovers. They did a fantastic job defending against Manchester City in the previous meeting as well. Even though Manchester City scored three goals and created 2.4 expected goals, one of their goals came off a penalty and another came from outside the box. For the match, City had 22 shots and only 1.6 non-penalty expected goals without a big scoring chance.

Everton’s defense hasn’t been as great lately mainly because they are in a difficult part of the schedule. The Toffees haven’t held an opponent under one expected goal since their match against Burnley on December 16th. Because they’ve tried to play more aggressive out of possession, it has had a negative effect on their defense, but even with playing more aggressive they are still fourth in npxG allowed.

Everton did create over two expected goals against Tottenham, but basically all of their huge chances came off corners, which they are elite at. Everton lead the Premier League with 10.4 expected goals off of corners, which will be one of their only advantages against Manchester City.

They have played well against the top teams in the Premier League, as they've won the expected goals battle in four of their seven matches against the 'Big Six'.

This line is way too high for a team that has the caliber of Everton out possession. Tottenham scored an early goal on an uncharacteristic defensive lapse, but after that goal Spurs really weren’t able to create anything of value.

Given the way they were able limit Manchester City to very few chances and the vulnerabilities they've shown defending in transition, Everton are very live in this match.

What is maybe a little surprising about Manchester City this season is they are not completely blowing out teams like we have seen in the past. In only three of their 22 Premier League matches have they won by more than two goals

Wolves and Brentford meet for the fourth time in less than two months in a pivotal match in the bottom half of the table.

Wolves have been giant killers this Premier League season and pulled off another on this past weekend, beating Chelsea 4-2 at Stamford Bridge. Gary O'Neill deserves a lot of credit for how well he's done setting this team up tactically for success and it's gotten Wolves within striking distance of a top half finish.

Brentford are still going to through a really tough run. They've lost back to back matches against Tottenham and Manchester City, which means that they have lost seven of their last eight Premier League matches, dropping them down into the relegation fight. A win here against Wolves would do wonders for the Bees to get things back on track.

O’Neill has done a fantastic job with Wolves and has set them up in a way where they are really good out of possession and against some of the top teams in the Premier League because of their ability to be deadly in transition. With Neto fully healthy they’ve been clicking on all cylinders, but they haven’t been that great against teams in the bottom half of the table because they are not set up to be a good team that holds a majority of the possession. Against the bottom half of the table this year, Wolves have a -1.5 expected goal differential.

Even with O'Neill's tactics working very effectively, Wolves' underlying numbers really haven't been that great. They have over-performed both offensively and defensively with their defense allowing 1.70 xG per 90 minutes. They also have a pretty big weakness here against Brentford because they are struggling to defend crosses. Wolves are allowing the fifth-most crosses into the penalty area, while Brentford have completed the most in the Premier League.

Even with all of the prolific attackers Wolves have at their disposal, they still are in the bottom half of the Premier League in expected goals, big scoring chances and shots. Really the only category Wolves are elite at is creating chances off of set pieces, but Brentford have that covered, ranking fourth in xG per set piece allowed.

Brentford are a good lesson in why underlying metrics are much more important than the final score. Brentford are in the worst form of anyone in the Premier League, even losing seven of their last eight matches with a -11 goal differential, but their expected goal differential during that time frame was only -3.3.

One of those unlucky results came against Wolves when the expected goals were basically even, as Brentford tilted the field on Wolves and out-touched them in the penalty box 43 to 19.What I found interesting is in the first meeting between these two Brentford set up in their 4-3-3 that they utilize when they are the favorites and have the intention of being the more possession-dominant team. In both FA Cup meetings they switched to a 3-5-2 and actually conceded a majority of the possession to Wolves, especially in the second meeting. In that second meeting they held Wolves to just 1.2 npxG on 24 non-penalty shots.

One thing that is going to be different in this match as opposed to the previous three matches is Brentford is going to have Ivan Toney. Toney makes such a difference for Brentford not just because he's a prolific finisher, but he's a matchup nightmare for any opposing center back. Because Toney possesses elite strength and pace, the positioning of the center back when defending long balls to him is always difficult. If you play even with him, he will makes runs in behind and beat you with his pace. If you decide to play behind him he will use his body and hold up the ball. Toney has already scored twice in his three matches since returning from the eight month ban and in case you forgot, he bagged 20 goals and had 0.73 xG + xA per 90 minute season last year.

The first meeting was rife with calamitous defending at the back from Brentford, which is completely uncharacteristic of them, but in the end they outshot Wolves and held 60% with the xG being basically even, including a 0.99 xG tap in from Hee Chan Hwang. Then in the first round of the FA Cup, Brentford went up a man and a goal, but conceded late to send it to a replay. The replay at Wolves went into extra time with Cunha scoring a penalty in extra time, but Brentford still won the non-penalty xG battle.

With Toney back in the lineup, it makes Brentford a significantly better team in attack, especially given his ability to win headers against a defense that struggles to defend crosses into their penalty area.

This is the fourth meeting between these two sides, having been drawn together in the FA Cup 3rd Round. I wouldn’t read too much into the two cup games, given both featured heavily rotated sides, but what is a great line of form is the 4-1 thrashing Wolves handed to Brentford in the reverse league fixture in December.

Brentford will point to having talisman Ivan Toney available after missing the first three meetings, but the big thing for me is this is at Molineux. Since their promotion to the Premier League, we immediately saw the Bees could beat anyone on their day in their own stadium, on the road there is less tempo, and they are a pale imitation.

That makes the bet here a simple one. Wolves to win on the moneyline at +110.

The home team are one of the most underrated sides in the English topflight in my opinion. They are 10th in the table, and only last week went to Chelsea and absolutely battered them, running out 4-2 winners with Matheus Cunha blasting home a hat-trick.

Gary O’Neil has done an incredible job and totally transformed this side into one of the most entertaining ones in the division. They are just four points off of the top-seven and with a realistic chance of qualifying for Europe for the first time in four years.

Toney’s return has made Brentford a public play and are massively overrated by the books. Thomas Frank’s side are a shambles defensively, conceding at least two goals in seven of their last eight matches and three or more in four of their last five league games.

They have lost seven of their 10 EPL road fixtures this term including all of the last five. One of those defeats was to Sheffield United, giving the Blades only their second win of a terrible season.

All of which makes the +110 a cracking price

For the neutral fan, Ange Postecoglou versus Roberto de Zerbi is one of the most enticing fixtures of the entire English Premier League season. Their commitment to attacking and open soccer at all costs creates a fascinating dynamic when the two sides clash. Tottenham host Brighton for the second time in six weeks on Saturday after Brighton beat Spurs 4-2 on the south coast on Dec. 28.

It's reasonable to expect plenty of fireworks and excitement as a part of the high pressing display that both clubs view as the identity under their current managers. With both clubs also getting healthy after a period of injury and international absences, the stage is set for an enthralling match.

Spurs are especially buoyed by the return of their top attacker, Son Heung-min, who missed most of the last month away at the Asian Cup with South Korea. Brighton are welcoming back Kaoru Mitoma from Japan as well, and both defenses are sure to be tested early and often.

Spurs are a difficult team to get a true market rating because they have so rarely had their best XI healthy for the last three months. Tottenham will be as close to 100% full strength as possible on Saturday now that Son is fit to start. They'll have the in-form Richarlison up top, and likely Dejan Kulusevski — who has created the most chances for others in the PL — off the right. James Maddison and Yves Bissouma are healthy in midfield, while Pape Matar Sarr and Rodrigo Bentancur's availability means we're unlikely to see Oliver Skipp and the first choice back line is again fit.

The question is just how good is that group of players? The closest we've come to a good run of matches with everyone fit was the opening half of the season prior to Chelsea. Tottenham played 822 minutes of 11-on-11 soccer including the match against Chelsea on Nov. 6. Spurs averaged 1.85 xG per match and conceded 1.04.

Tottenham had a +0.81 xG difference per 90, which is more than good enough to warrant this current moneyline price on Saturday at home against Brighton. Spurs played from behind immediately in the loss at Brighton, but their ability to turn over Brighton 17 times high and produce 19 shots shows that Spurs should have plenty of opportunities to score in this match, regardless of scoreline.

The leaky defense comes down to whether you believe the issues are more structural or personnel related. Tottenham's style makes it near impossible they'll ever be a plus defensive team, but Tottenham are a bottom five defense since December began. Even with Mickey van de Ven's pace and Cristian Romero fit, the toughest solve is how to estimate Spurs defensive abilities.

The underlying profile is textbook heavy pressing. Spurs are first in high pressing intensity but also rank 11th in big scoring chances conceded, 16th in non-penalty xG and the set piece defense has been an issue this season.

If it was said preseason that Brighton had a better defense than attack in the PL rankings, you'd probably be pretty shocked. The Seagulls are fifth in non-penalty xG allowed and 10th in NPxG created per match. The defense is still quite open and has its issues, but the bigger problem that has emerged for de Zerbi is the lack of high end attacking production.

Brighton don't have a single player on the roster averaging more than 0.49 npxG + xA per match. It's a lot of solid attackers, but there's no superstar producer for this club. Evan Ferguson has taken a step back, Joao Pedro has been good but had his numbers bumped up by penalties. Simon Adingra remains on international duty and Mitoma is just returning from time away.

Brighton have played a ton of different lineups, prioritized rotation and mixed and matched their way to good but not great underlying metrics. It's hard to pick a Brighton best XI because it's so rare that de Zerbi has played the same group of players.

The biggest alarm bell for Brighton in this match is that Spurs are the most efficient team in the league at turning final third possession into penalty area touches. Brighton's defense is the worst in the PL at denying ball progression here. Basically, Spurs will have plenty of box area touches.

De Zerbi himself won't be on the sideline because of his touchline ban, but Brighton are sure to go for it on Saturday. Both clubs were able to effectively disrupt the possession and build-up tactics of the other and the result was a high flying and back and forth match.

This is an excellent live betting game as a result, with neither defense being solid enough to maintain a lead should they score one early. Tottenham have especially struggled to hold leads all season long

Man City played arguably their most attacking lineup possible in the road win at Brentford on Monday and if Pep Guardiola is going to continue to push more numbers forward and play a more attack-minded lineup, the market is too high on their defensive quality. Everton are comfortable playing without possession and quickly moving the ball up the pitch, similar to how Brentford managed 18 penalty area touches and 1.2 xG in the 3-1 defeat last match.

City had three different players record at least three shots. Compare this to last season, when City played an extremely conservative style that involved running most of the attack through three or four players, and City have really pushed down on the gas pedal of late. Even Rodri and Josko Gvardiol had five-plus touches in the penalty area in that game, and they are the two most reliable ball stoppers in the team. A lineup with Kevin De Bruyne, Erling Haaland, Phil Foden, Julian Alvarez and Bernardo Silva will be vulnerable defensively by nature.

Everton’s attack is rarely pretty, but it is effective. They’re extremely efficient on set pieces as it resulted in both goals for them in the 2-2 draw at Spurs. The Cityzens' major difference between the last two seasons and this one has been a decline in pressing intensity and that will enable Everton some chances to get at the City goal. As a result, I’d bet Everton to score at -120 or better and sprinkle some first half to score at +230.

Goalscoring is way up across the Premier League this season as a result of most clubs playing a more open and expansive style and allowing way more chances as a result. Outside of the top three elite teams — Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool — Bournemouth and Fulham have been the two best defensive sides in the rest of the league since December began.

If you remove penalties and red cards from the sample, Fulham and Bournemouth are both conceding just 1.1 xGA per match in the last 900 minutes of action. Given the schedules faced and sample size, it’s starting to look like more signal than noise. For Bournemouth, the Cherries have stopped trying to slowly matriculate the ball down the field and play through pressure. They’ve gone long far more often, and it has cut down on the high turnovers allowed, improved their transition defense and made them much more solid overall.

For Fulham, they always played an aggressive pressing style that did a solid job of preventing teams from getting into their penalty area at an average rate in the league. The Cottagers conceded too many big scoring chances once in the box and thus were mediocre defensively, but the underlying profile always suggested there was room for Fulham to improve defensively.

These two sides met on Boxing Day at Bournemouth and the line closed at 2.5 with -110 on juice on both sides. If anything, both defenses have only solidified themselves as legitimately solid since then. Now the total is 2.5 with the juice at +112 to the under, and it’s too high of a total.

A win against the Cottagers will provide valuable breathing space and keep a rival firmly in the mix. I am taking them to get that win on Saturday but with the safety net of tie no bet, meaning we get a full return of our stake should the game end all square. Odds of +108 look value.

I mentioned last week that I would be looking to oppose Fulham where possible for the remainder of the season, and this looks like a good opportunity to start. Marco Silva’s side raced into a 2-0 lead at Burnley last weekend but were left hanging on in the end. If the match had an extra five minutes, I am certain they would have lost rather than escaping with a 2-2 draw.

The fact they could have killed the Clarets off but instead took their foot off the gas and let Vincent Kompany’s men back in says a lot about their current state of mind. For me, Fulham remain the one side with one eye already on the summer holidays.

The Cottagers are winless in their last six games across all competitions. A sequence started by League Cup semi-final defeat to Liverpool, a tie which, in my opinion, prematurely ended their season.

Since then, they put in a terrible showing in losing 2-0 at home to Newcastle followed by a dire goalless draw with Everton when they were lucky to score nil. Silva has built a strong defense, they don’t suffer too many heavy defeats, but they struggle for goals.

That is something Bournemouth do not have a problem with. Dominic Solanke has 13 league goals for the season. Only Haaland and Salah have more, and he scored in his side’s 3-0 win in the reverse fixture as recently as Boxing Day.

Last season, it finished 2-2 at Craven Cottage, with the Cherries winning 2-1 at home. Solanke hit the back of the net in both of those fixtures too.

Bournemouth have a great record overall in this matchup and in this away tie where they haven’t tasted defeat since 1992.

EPL Best Bet: Bournemouth Tie No Bet at +108.

League leaders Liverpool will look to rebound from their second league defeat of the season when they face a Burnley side that is quickly running out of time to mount a serious effort to avoid relegation.

The Reds were thoroughly beaten 3-1 at Arsenal last Sunday, ending a nine-match unbeaten run in all competitions, a 15-match unbeaten spell in league play and a four-match winning streak. It also significantly narrowed the gap at the time of the table; by kickoff, it's possible Liverpool could be sitting second if Manchester City win their earlier Saturday home fixture against Everton.

Burnley enter the weekend in 19th, seven points from safety at the moment and facing continued uncertainty over just how many points they'd need to achieve survival given the Financial Fair Play charges levied at Everton and Nottingham Forest. But they did snap a four-match losing run with a 2-2 home draw to Fulham last weekend.

The Reds have won the last four in this fixture, including a 2-0 league triumph at Turf Moor on Boxing Day on goals from Darwin Nunez and Diogo Jota.

Until Sunday's decisive defeat to Arsenal, Liverpool had fared better than could be expected in the absence of leading scorer Mo Salah — who last featured for his club on New Year's Day before playing for Egypt at the African Cup of Nations and then suffering a calf injury likely to again see him sidelined on Saturday.

The Reds won five and drew one in their first six matches in all competitions without him leading the line, and they showed no signs of slowing attacking production, outscoring those six opponents 18-5.

And the nature of Arsenal's domination last Sunday was so thorough that even a healthy Salah probably would've been too far up the field to significantly impact the outcome. Mikel Arteta's squad dominated the Reds all over the park, and Jurgen Klopp's men created nothing that felt like a truly dangerous chance. The numbers bear that out, with Arsenal leading 3.4 to 0.5 in expected goals and Liverpool's "best" chance of their 10 shots registering only a 0.10 xG value.

Working in Liverpool's favor Saturday will be their immaculate home form. Their 2.64 points per match at Anfield is the best home record in the league — Narrowly in front of Arsenal and Aston Villa — and their +21 home goal differential is two better than the next closest side.

They've also been eerily consistent in their home triumphs, scoring three or four goals in all but one of their nine home league wins.

While Burnley was one of the Premier League's most active teams during the primary transfer window following their promotion from the League Championship, a far more reserved approach to the secondary window shows they don't view a potential return to the second tier as a death sentence.

So does the club's willingness to allow Vincent Kompany to manage through these current Premier League struggles when relegation rivals like Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest were much quicker to part with their skippers.

But striker David Fofana has already made an immense impact since his loan from Chelsea, coming on in the 63rd minute to score both goals as the Clarets rallied to a 2-2 draw against visiting Fulham in just his second Premier League appearance for his current club and fifth overall.

He could be in line for his second career PL start Saturday, while Montpellier loanee Maxime Estevee could make his first after the defender spotted the injured Hjalmar Ekdal at halftime of that home draw.

Burnley's away form has been slightly better than their home results, with three of their four Premier League victories earned away from Turf Moor. But they haven't taken points from any of their matches at top-half opposition, including losses to the four teams most closely trailing Liverpool: Manchester City, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur.

The problem with this kind of game is that if there's value anywhere on the moneyline, it's on the ugly number next to Liverpool's name. The -550 odds here imply an 84.6% probability of a Liverpool win. And this year's results suggest that's a little low, if anything.

The league's current bottom three (not including Everton, whose position is based on a 10-point deduction) have posted a record of 0-6-1 (W-L-D) when playing away from home at the current top four. And the one blemish there is Sheffield United's 1-1 draw at an Aston Villa side that is easily the worst defensive group of the four.

So if that's the value you're going to back, you have to find a creative way to do it. It might lie in Burnley's record when playing such foes.

Perhaps one reason Kompany is still in the job at Burnley is that he has been steadfast in his commitment to trying to play proactively even while at a talent disadvantage.

It's a characteristic that made the Clarets one of the most enjoyable watches in recent memory in the League Championship last season.

And it has resulted in his side scoring in eight of their 16 league defeats this season, including four of their seven away losses. Most interestingly for our gambling purposes, they've scored in all three of their other away fixtures against the current top four.

Liverpool have kept clean sheets in less than half of their games against bottom-half opponents at home, but it has largely correlated with the kind of team they've been facing. Bournemouth, Chelsea and Fulham all scored in their Anfield defeats.

Nottingham Forest looks for a rare season sweep when it welcomes a refreshed-looking Newcastle United team to the City Ground in Saturday's late Premier League kickoff.

Forest have looked improved since Nuno Espirito Santo took the reins from Steve Cooper, but they still only have five PL victories to their name and none in the New Year. Their best result of 2024 came last Sunday, a 1-1 away draw against 10-man Bournemouth.

Newcastle looks to finally be recovered from a grueling November and December, having gone unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. But they've still conceded way too frequently, allowing three or more goals in four league games since Boxing Day, including a 4-4 home draw against Luton Town a week ago.

The first of those was a 3-1 home loss to Forest, powered by a hat trick from former Magpies-turned-Trees striker Chris Wood.

At the very least, Newcastle fans probably won't have to worry about one of their former strikers scoring another hat trick against them, with Wood this time on the shelf with a hamstring injury.

But if Forest fans are being honest, they'd easily trade Wood's health for that of Taiwo Awonyi, who made his first start in a couple of months in last weekend's draw at Bournemouth.

While the Nigerian national didn't find a goal, he did continue Forest's record of earning better results when he's in the XI than when he's out of it; the Trees have now picked up 1.32 points per game in his 25 starts since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, against only 0.72 ppg when he either doesn't play at all or enters off the bench.

And under Espirito Santo, there has been improvement prior to Awonyi's return from the injury shelf, albeit of an incremental nature. Forest have taken seven points from their first six games since Steve Cooper was relieved of his duties, and posted an average -0.18 xG difference per 90 minutes in that span. Those are both up a bit from their overall season numbers of earning 0.91 points a game and a -0.36 xG difference per 90.

But if you add their heavy involvement in the FA Cup — which has required two replays already — it's zero wins in the last seven matches in all competitions.

Forest was one of the more active teams in the winter window, including signing American Gio Reyna on loan from Dortmund. He could make his first Premier League start after coming off the bench in last weekend's draw. He could play a role vacated by Morgan Gibbs-White if the Forest No. 10 is unable to recover from a knock sustained in FA Cup play.

The combination of UEFA Champions League commitments, a Leagues Cup run and a growing injury list conspired to see the Magpies lose six of eight in all competitions between the start of December and New Year's Day.

But in January, it may have been the boost provided by another competition — the FA Cup — that has helped Eddie Howe's group regain some confidence and momentum.

It began with a 3-0 thumping of derby rivals Sunderland in the FA Cup Third Round. While the fixture that immediately followed was a heartbreaking 3-2 home defeat to Manchester City, it was an obvious better performance against a league heavyweight than Newcastle had given in some time.

They followed that with a Fourth Round win at Fulham and then handed Aston Villa its first home league defeat of the season. And although a 4-4 draw at home to Luton Town was a clear setback, it still saw Howe's men rally from two goals down to take a point.

Newcastle is far from fully recovered from its injuries — with striker Alexander Isak and winger Anthony Gordon the latest to succumb to ailments.

But Callum Wilson and Harvey Barnes returned from the shelf in the draw against Luton. Maybe more importantly, the schedule has shifted to a more manageable pace for the Magpies; this is the fifth game they will have played on five or more days of rest since the start of the New Year. That happened only once in December.

Seeing Newcastle as this heavy of a home favorite can be a discomforting given how poor their away form has been this season.

But the caveat is three of their six PL defeats came during that brutal December. Without that month, the Magpies have taken points in 50% of those away games. They've also earned multiple victories on the road in their Cup competitions.

Meanwhile, Forest haven't played as strongly at home as they did in their initial return to the Premier League Last Season. But what they have managed to do is keep all but one league home game within a goal, including the last time out when Awonyi's late strike made things interesting in a 2-1 loss at Arsenal.

So even with a price above +200, I'm not sure the hosts are the play here or that there's an obvious lean anywhere. Instead, the move is probably to get aggressive, parlaying a moneyline draw with both teams scoring at +333 odds and an implied 23.1% probability.

Bayern Munich received some positive injury and team news ahead of this match. Both Dayot Upamecano and Joshua Kimmich returned to training to solidify the defense, and Kim Min-jae is back from international duty with South Korea. Bayern had to play a makeshift defensive unit in the win against Borussia Monchengladbach last weekend and that resulted in some high turnovers and mistakes by the back line.

Bayer Leverkusen are still without Victor Boniface and the downgrade to Patrik Schick has been noticeable for the attack. These two teams are perhaps most interesting tactically because both have dialed back the pressing intensity compared to the normal Bundesliga standard. Alonso and Thomas Tuchel have dominated the Bundesliga this year and maintained high quality defensive metrics by not totally overcommitting to pressure and winning the ball back.

The first meeting between these two teams changed immediately when Bayern scored a set piece goal in the opening minutes. We didn't get to see a ton of minutes of soccer where these two teams were in a neutral game state, and I wouldn't be surprised if this match were more cagey and tactical than you'd expect for a high profile Bundesliga match.

Leverkusen like to use both of their wing backs in the back three to get forward, and that could leave them outnumbered in the midfield exchanges by Bayern, who are likely to create a four man box of Jamal Musiala, Kimmich, Leon Goretzka and Thomas Muller to progress the ball up the pitch.

The tactical nature could make the match, and especially the first half, lower scoring than expected.

The gap between these two teams at the top of Ligue 1 isn't as big as the market is suggesting here. I've kept waiting for PSG to really improve or turn a corner to dominate this league more and it just isn't happening. By my numbers, PSG and Lille are the two best teams in France. Unlike most teams in France, Lille are effective at controlling possession and pressing PSG into some uncomfortable positions.

The first meeting between these two teams came down to the final kick as Lille equalized in what was a relatively even match. PSG were awarded a penalty and still finished the game with just 1.4 xG. Lille took more shots (15-9) despite having fewer penalty area touches (22-32). Kylian Mbappé is the difference maker in most matches and his production is other worldly, but Lille are a considerably better defensive outfit this year.

Les Dogues have conceded the second-fewest goals and the fewest non-penalty xG in Ligue 1 this year. PSG's ability to defend in the penalty area and play out of possession remains flawed. The Parisians haven't paid much for their flaws in the table, but there are underlying concerns to examine. Lille aren't a full goal worse and I'd bet Lille +1 at -130 or better.

David Moyes and West Ham will be looking to find some form in this match. That will be no easy task as they will be hosting Mikel Arteta's Arsenal, who are coming off a massive 3-1 victory over Liverpool.

Despite not having the prettiest of season's up to this point, West Ham still find themselves seventh in the Premier League, with a chance to break into the top six with a win here. However, the Hammers haven't won a match since December 28th, when they beat … Arsenal 2-0 at the Emirates.

Arsenal is third in the Premier League, behind only Liverpool and Manchester City. A win in this match could potentially take them to the top of the league if both Liverpool and City drop points. After a shaky December, Arsenal have now won each of their past three matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding just twice.

West Ham haven't been the most flashy or impressive side in the league this year, but they have been consistent. They have picked up 19 points at home and 17 points on the road this season. They have scored 36 goals and conceded 36 goals. And over their past five matches, they have picked up six points.

Moyes has given the Hammers a sense of stability that they were previously lacking. Even though they haven't played very well throughout this season, they have found ways to pick up points. The four standout players for the Hammers have been Jarrod Bowen, Lucas Paquetá, Mohammed Kudus and Alphonse Areola.

Bowen has scored 11 goals, Kudus has six goals playing out wide and behind the striker, Paquetá has two goals and five assists, and is also the creative force. He is able to take people on and create space unlike anyone else at Moyes' disposal. Unfortunately, he hasn't played in the league since their 2-0 win at the Emirates. He will be injured for this match as well, creating a massive hole in the midfield.

Areola has been the unsung hero for the Hammers this season. West Ham have conceded the seventh-fewest goals in the league and Areola is the one to thank for that. He has saved just over four expected goals this season. West Ham's expected goal difference is -7, but thanks to Areola — as well as to the finishing quality of Bowen — West Ham have been a thorn in the side of a lot of teams.

Moyes will likely try to sit back and absorb as much pressure as possible from Arsenal. This is how the Hammers prefer to play and the speed and directness of Bowen and Kudus is the only way I can see West Ham breaking through against Arsenal's effective defense.

Arsenal, over the past two weeksm have started to look like the Arsenal of last season. They have had impressive wins over Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool. However, they will be without a few players who may influence this match.

Arsenal's strength comes from the fact that they are able to control the match. Their players have so much quality on the ball and in tight areas that they are able to set the pace and determine how they want to break down the opposition. This quality on the ball and in possession is why they have only conceded 22 goals this season, the lowest total in the Premier League.

Another reason they are so good defensively is the fact that when they lose possession and are being countered on, they have William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes there to clean up the mess.

The outcome of this match will depend on Saliba and Magalhaes being on top of their game. An in form Saliba is arguably the best center back in the Premier League and will be able to stop West Ham's attack. However, the last time these sides matched up, we saw that Arsenal can be beaten at the back.

This match will have massive implications for both sides. A West Ham victory could potentially take them into the top six, which would be a massive achievement for Moyes' men. Meanwhile, a win for Arsenal could potentially take them to the top of the table if other results go in their favor.

I think Arsenal will win this match, but I believe it is going to be a low-scoring affair. West Ham will play with all 11 men behind the ball for all 90 minutes.