Sunday, 12/10/2023 (125) BUFFALO vs. (126) KANSAS CITY
Favoring: BUFFALO against the spread.
Play On - Road teams (BUFFALO) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games
(91-38 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.5%, +49.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0 +4 units).

Monday, 12/11/2023 (129) TENNESSEE vs. (130) MIAMI
Favoring: TENNESSEE against the spread.
Play On - Road teams (TENNESSEE) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games
(91-38 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.5%, +49.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0 +4 units).

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (105) JACKSONVILLE vs. (106) CLEVELAND
Favoring: JACKSONVILLE against the spread.
Play On - Any team (JACKSONVILLE) - off a home loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
(55-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.3%, +33 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (8-1 +6.9 units).

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (105) JACKSONVILLE vs. (106) CLEVELAND
Favoring: JACKSONVILLE against the spread.
Play On - Road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season
(32-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (113) TAMPA BAY vs. (114) ATLANTA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Any team against the total (ATLANTA) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG)
(81-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +41.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (16-5 +10.5 units).

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (123) DENVER vs. (124) LA CHARGERS
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Any team against the total (DENVER) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG)
(81-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +41.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (16-5 +10.5 units).

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (123) DENVER vs. (124) LA CHARGERS
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Any team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG)
(81-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +41.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (16-5 +10.5 units).

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (127) PHILADELPHIA vs. (128) DALLAS
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DALLAS) - after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game
(46-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.2%, +28.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1 -0.1 units).

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (123) DENVER vs. (124) LA CHARGERS
Favoring: DENVER on the first half line.
Play Against - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (LA CHARGERS) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games
(48-16 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.0%, +30.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.9 units).

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (111) CAROLINA vs. (112) NEW ORLEANS
Favoring: CAROLINA on the first half line.
Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (CAROLINA) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season
(34-9 since 1983.) (79.1%, +24.1 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (107) LA RAMS vs. (108) BALTIMORE
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams against the 1rst half total (BALTIMORE) - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games
(65-23 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.9%, +39.7 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (119) SEATTLE vs. (120) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams against the 1rst half total (SAN FRANCISCO) - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games
(65-23 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.9%, +39.7 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units)

Monday, 12/11/2023 (129) TENNESSEE vs. (130) MIAMI
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams against the 1rst half total (MIAMI) - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games
(65-23 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.9%, +39.7 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).

Monday, 12/11/2023 (129) TENNESSEE vs. (130) MIAMI
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team vs the the 1rst half total (MIAMI) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after a win by 28 or more points
(28-5 since 1983.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (109) DETROIT vs. (110) CHICAGO
Favoring: DETROIT against the spread.
DETROIT is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 32.7, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (127) PHILADELPHIA vs. (128) DALLAS
Favoring: DALLAS against the spread.
DALLAS is 10-0 ATS (+10 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 32.3, OPPONENT 14.8 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (119) SEATTLE vs. (120) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO against the spread.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 31.6, OPPONENT 14.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (113) TAMPA BAY vs. (114) ATLANTA
Favoring: TAMPA BAY against the spread.
ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 21.5, OPPONENT 25.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 12/11/2023 (129) TENNESSEE vs. (130) MIAMI
Favoring: Under on the total.
TENNESSEE is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 16.9, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (123) DENVER vs. (124) LA CHARGERS
Favoring: Under on the total.
LA CHARGERS are 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after a win by 6 or less points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA CHARGERS 19, OPPONENT 22 - (Rating = 4*)

Monday, 12/11/2023 (131) GREEN BAY vs. (132) NY GIANTS
Favoring: Under on the total.
NY GIANTS are 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY GIANTS 13.7, OPPONENT 20.6 - (Rating = 4*)

Monday, 12/11/2023 (131) GREEN BAY vs. (132) NY GIANTS
Favoring: Under on the total.
NY GIANTS are 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY GIANTS 14.5, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 4*

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (113) TAMPA BAY vs. (114) ATLANTA
Favoring: Under on the total.
TAMPA BAY is 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 15.2, OPPONENT 17.9 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (127) PHILADELPHIA vs. (128) DALLAS
Favoring: Over on the total.
DALLAS is 76-30 OVER (+43 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 28.8, OPPONENT 24.3 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (123) DENVER vs. (124) LA CHARGERS
Favoring: Under on the total.
LA CHARGERS are 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CHARGERS 20.9, OPPONENT 15.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 12/11/2023 (131) GREEN BAY vs. (132) NY GIANTS
Favoring: Under on the total.
NY GIANTS are 36-12 UNDER (+22.8 Units) after a win by 3 or less points since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 19.7, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (109) DETROIT vs. (110) CHICAGO
Favoring: DETROIT on the first half line.
DETROIT is 10-1 (+8.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 18.9, OPPONENT 8.5 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (111) CAROLINA vs. (112) NEW ORLEANS
Favoring: CAROLINA on the first half line.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-36 (-27.6 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 9.7, OPPONENT 13.2 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (109) DETROIT vs. (110) CHICAGO
Favoring: DETROIT on the first half line.
DETROIT is 20-8 (+11.2 Units) against the 1rst half line versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 14.3, OPPONENT 11.3 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (109) DETROIT vs. (110) CHICAGO
Favoring: DETROIT on the first half line.
DETROIT is 20-8 (+11.2 Units) against the 1rst half line versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 14.3, OPPONENT 11.3 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (127) PHILADELPHIA vs. (128) DALLAS
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
DALLAS is 21-2 OVER (+18.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DALLAS 18.4, OPPONENT 11.8 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (127) PHILADELPHIA vs. (128) DALLAS
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 15.8, OPPONENT 13.5 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (111) CAROLINA vs. (112) NEW ORLEANS
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) the 1rst half total after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 11.4, OPPONENT 16.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (117) HOUSTON vs. (118) NY JETS
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
NY JETS are 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total in a home game where the first half total is between 16.5 and 17.5 since 1992.
The average score was NY JETS 8.3, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 4*)

Monday, 12/11/2023 (129) TENNESSEE vs. (130) MIAMI
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
MIAMI is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.
The average score was MIAMI 17.6, OPPONENT 13.1 - (Rating = 4*

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (113) TAMPA BAY vs. (114) ATLANTA
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
TAMPA BAY is 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 5.5, OPPONENT 9.1 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (107) LA RAMS vs. (108) BALTIMORE
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
BALTIMORE is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) the 1rst half total after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 12, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 12/10/2023 (109) DETROIT vs. (110) CHICAGO
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
DETROIT is 24-6 UNDER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 9.6, OPPONENT 8.9 - (Rating = 3*)

Detroit at Chicago

Seems hard to believe that Chicago is on a 3-0-1 ATS run currently, having won two of its last three outright as well. I don’t think it can be said that the Bears are playing well as they’ve averaged just 17.8 PPG during the ATS streak.

Typically, about this time of year, is when this team has unusually completely unraveled, as they face second time around games against divisional foes. Chicago has been one of the worst rematch teams in the NFL. Take a look at some of the numbers: Chicago 2-12 ATS in the last 14, 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in the last 12 as rematch host, 4-18 SU and 6-15-1 ATS in the last 22 revenge tries. This is unfortunately a revenge game because the Bears yielded a big lead to the Lions in Detroit in losing 31-26 three weeks ago.

Meanwhile, head coach Dan Campbell’s team was able to quickly shake off the Thanksgiving Day loss to Green Bay with a big road win at New Orleans. This team remains focused and is clicking offensively, having scored 30.6 PPG over the last five contests. That is the type of production I look for in a road favorite. Plus, the Lions have been one of the league’s better rematch teams, going 12-2 ATS in the last 14.

Carolina at New Orleans

If anyone can figure out this New Orleans team, congratulations because I am stumped. The Saints seem to have a plethora of offensive talent, yet when it seemed it was finally coming together on that side of the ball for them about a month ago, they then went on to lose three straight games and control of the NFC South Division.

Now they will be hosting a Carolina team that was competitive in its first game under new head coach Chris Tabor, not an uncommon thing, as teams get renewed energy it seems from huge in-season coaching changes.

The Saints are 5-point favorites, and an interesting streak system applies because of their recent struggles: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 49-32 SU but 30-48-3 ATS (38.5%) when favored by 3-points or more since 2013. In other words, you don’t want to lay bigger numbers with struggling teams. Makes sense right? The Panthers haven’t been great, but QB Bryce Young seems to be making strides, and the offense was as productive and balanced as it has been all season long last week. Plus, Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to New Orleans.

Houston at NY Jets

There are certain games on an NFL team’s schedule that fans point to and project wins because they are against so-called weaker opponents, and those games turn out to be more than that team bargained for. This game at New York has that feel to me for the young emerging Texans, who find themselves in the thick of the playoff race with their stud rookie QB CJ Stroud leading the way.

How could the Jets possibly put up a fight here? After all, they’ve lost five games in a row both SU and ATS. Well, this is what makes handicapping NFL games tough for a lot of novice bettors. Just look at what happened in Pittsburgh on Thursday night, where the seemingly dead-in-the-water Patriots pulled the upset with a backup QB.

In this particular game, underdogs are on a 5-0-1 ATS run in the HOU-NYJ series. The Jets losing skid also brings up an intriguing system: NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 22-50 SU but 45-26-1 ATS (63.4%) since 2007. Don’t be surprised to see New York put up a nice fight here on the young and possibly naïve Texans.

Minnesota at Las Vegas

It seems the league caught up to what was going on with Josh Dobbs in Minnesota after a couple of surprising wins, as the Vikings lost their two games before their bye week. That’s what some goof film on a new player can do, as defensive coordinators get a better feel on how to beat a guy. It was evident when Chicago held Minnesota 10 points and just 242 yards of offense.

I think the bye gave head coach Kevin O”Connell’s team a great chance to reset. In addition to getting Dobbs more caught up to the offense, as well as finally getting WR Justin Jefferson back in the lineup, Minnesota will benefit from a few key post-bye week systems we’ve been riding all year as they play as 3-point favorites in Las Vegas. First, road favorites coming out of their bye week are 106-44 SU and 90-57-3 ATS since ’99. Against nonconference opponents, they are 33-15-2 ATS since 2000.

As a franchise, the Vikings are on runs of 6-1 SU as well as 4-1 ATS in post-bye week games vs. AFC foes. Of course, the Raiders are also coming out of their bye week and are on an ugly 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS skid in their last six post-bye-week games vs. NFC foes, outscored by 15.7 PPG. There’s a reason Minnesota is a comfy favorite here.

>>Injury Report: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (ankle) remains a game-time decision Sunday vs. the Browns (though it seemed to be trending positively). . . . Same with Seahawks QB Geno Smith vs. the 49ers (though not as positively). . . . Saints TE Taysom Hill (foot/hand) is not expected is to play vs. the Panthers. . . . Steelers DL TJ Watt was put in concussion protocol. . . . The Packers ruled out WR Christian Watson (hamstring) for MNF vs. the Giants.

Green Bay Packers (-6.5; 36.5) at New York Giants
For the last few weeks, we have been buying the Green Bay Packers and getting rewarded. Now it is time to sell, at least in the short term. The Packers have won three straight games outright as an underdog, and now they take to the road to lay almost a touchdown against the Giants. You do not want to buy a team at the top of the market.

While the Giants have been pitiful at times in 2023, they have won two games in a row and are off a bye week, so they still look to be attempting to finish the season strong. Third-string QB Tommy DeVito has posted a QBR of over 100 in each of his last two starts following a disaster in Dallas during Week 10.

The Packers have not been a road favorite all season but are 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 times in the role.

Bet: Giants +6.5 (Play to +6)

TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Buccaneers/Falcons OV 41



TEASER OF THE WEEK

Ravens -1.5/Broncos +9

Week 14 public NFL sides at DKSportsbook
(70%+ of bets):

85% of bets on Texans -3.5
82% on Dolphins -13
80% on Packers -6.5
73% on Lions -3.5
70% on Saints -5.5

68% on Chiefs -1.5

Week 14 public NFL betting picture at BetMGM
sportsbooks:

Most bet teams
1. Lions -3.5
2. Chiefs -1.5
3. Cowboys -3.5

Most bet teams $
1. Lions -3.5
2. Cowboys -3.5
3. Bengals -2

Public teams (+60% of bets) in NFL Week 14 at
BetMGM


82% on Dolphins -13
78% on Broncos +2.5
77% on Texans -3.5
76% on Chiefs -1
70% on Browns -2.5
68% on Packers -6.5
65% on Lions -3
64% on Falcons -1.5

Updated NFL Week 14 betting at BetMGM


Most bet games
▪️ Lions-Bears
▪️ Bills-Chiefs
▪️ Eagles-Cowboys

Most bet teams
▪️ Lions -3
▪️ Chiefs -1
▪️ Texans -3.5

Most bet teams $
▪️ Lions -3
▪️ Jets +3.5
▪️ Chiefs -1

Vikings vs. Raiders Prediction
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX

The Raiders are listed at +3 against the Vikings on Sunday afternoon, though our PRO Projections suggest that this line should be even shorter.

With a projection of Las Vegas +1.8, bettors can lock in an edge of 1.8% by grabbing the Raiders and the points in this matchup.