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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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Market Moves 1/05

8 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Clippers (-1, 229) at New Orleans Pelicans

The Clippers (21-12) have won four straight games and just edged the Suns 131-122. Similarly, the Pelicans (21-14) have also won four straight games and just took down the Timberwolves 117-106. This line opened with the Pelicans listed as a short 1-point home favorite. We've seen this line hope the fence and move to Clippers -1. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" line movement on Los Angeles. The Clippers are receiving 65% of bets and 79% of money, indicating both public and wiseguy action in their favor. Road favorites are 117-60 (66%) straight up this season. Los Angeles is -115 on the moneyline. This is a tough schedule spot for the Pelicans, who are playing their third game in four nights and fourth game in six nights. Meanwhile, the Clippers are playing their third game in seven nights.

The Clippers rank higher in offensive efficiency (7th vs 10th). Los Angeles is averaging 124 points and shooting 52% from the field over their last ten games. New Orleans is averaging 118 points and shooting 50% over their last ten games. This is also a revenge spot for the Clippers, who lost to the Pelicans 116-106 at home in late November. Pros have also hit this over, raising the total from 228.5 to 231. Currently 83% of bets and 90% of money is sweating the over.

Old Post 01-05-24 10:56 PM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

9 p.m. ET: Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets (-9.5, 223.5)

The Magic (19-15) have dropped three-straight games and just fell to the Kings in double overtime 138-135. On the other hand, the Nuggets (25-11) have won eight of their last nine games and just outlasted the Warriors 130-127. This line opened with the Nuggets listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. We've seen Denver fall from -10.5 to -9.5, indicating wiseguys grabbing the points with the road dog Magic. Orlando is receiving 70% of bets and 79% of money, signaling a heavy combination of both Pro and Joe support.

This is a tough schedule spot for Denver, who won in Golden State last night and now has to travel home and play again tonight. Meanwhile, Orlando is rested and didn't play yesterday. Fading teams on the second leg of a back-to-back has gone 90-70 ATS (56%) this season. The Magic will lean on their defense, ranking 4th in defensive efficiency compared to 9th for the Nuggets. The Magic are 23-11 (68%) ATS this season, third best in the NBA. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total slightly from 224.5 to 223.5. The under is receiving only 19% of bets but 71% of money, a notable "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy.

Old Post 01-05-24 10:56 PM
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