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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka
The US Open women’s final should be a good one, as Coco Gauff will take on Aryna Sabalenka. I had Gauff as a +1400 play to win this tournament, and I’ll be up front right away and let you know that I hedged. The reason I did that is that I believe Sabalenka is going to win this match, and I was able to lock in a nice profit either way. For anybody that took Gauff at those odds, I’d suggest doing the same. And for anybody looking to play this match, I’d suggest going with Sabalenka.
It's not every day that you’re going to get a player as good as Sabalenka at -120 odds. The only person she isn’t normally a big favorite against is Iga Swiatek, who is usually the one favored in their matchups. But against everybody else, Sabalenka usually goes off at -200 or worse. But Gauff’s play over the last month or so has really grabbed the attention of fans and oddsmakers. Considering she won titles in D.C. and Cincinnati, it’s hard to blame them. But Sabalenka earned a dominant 6-4, 6-0 win over Gauff at Indian Wells back in March. And her power was overwhelming for the American in the desert. So, even if Gauff does put up a better fight in this one, there’s no guarantee she’ll win.
I think the reason I’m so high on Sabalenka in this matchup is that her forehand is such a weapon when she’s hitting it well. And throughout this tournament, that has been the case. Sabalenka did lose the shot in her comeback win over Madison Keys in the semis, but she found it rather quickly once the third-set tiebreaker started. Seeing it hold up in those key moments was huge, and I do think she’ll punish Gauff with it.
Gauff’s forehand has been the talk of the last couple of months, as she really started hitting it better once Brad Gilbert joined her team and helped instill some confidence in her. The improvement on that side of the court ultimately allowed her to win those two huge tournaments this summer. But Gauff looked like she went right back to square one with the forehand in her win over Karolina Muchova. She limped across the finish line in that match, using nothing but her speed, backhand and overall determination to get to the final. But if she’s not firing on all cylinders against Sabalenka, she will likely lose in a straightforward match.
You also don’t want to make the mistake of underestimating the amount of pressure Gauff will be under in this match. This is the 19-year-old’s second Grand Slam final, but it’s her first on American soil. And the fans in New York will be expecting a victory from her. That’s not going to be easy for her to deal with, but Sabalenka will be playing rather freely here — especially after having been facing elimination against Keys, who was serving for the match at 6-0, 5-4.
Overall, I believe Sabalenka is still a much stronger player than Gauff. The American is definitely beginning to realize her potential, but I think she has a little more growing to do before she beats a player like this on this type of stage. She would have easily been my bet if she got Keys in this match instead.
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09-09-23 10:01 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Daniil Medvedev vs. Novak Djokovic
On Friday, Daniil Medvedev played one of the most complete matches of his life, earning a 7-6 (3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 win over defending US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz. Of course, I should mention that Alcaraz didn’t quite bring his best tennis to that one. And I believe that’s because he got caught thinking about a potential final against Novak Djokovic, making it hard for him to live in the present and worry about the task at hand. And I honestly think you’re going to get something similar in the final. After weeks of thinking about a potential Wimbledon and Cincinnati rematch with Alcaraz, I’m not sure Djokovic will be able to get himself up for this meeting with Medvedev. But even if he does, I still like the Russian to emerge victorious here.
It hasn’t quite been talked about throughout this tournament, but Djokovic really hasn’t looked all that good over the past couple of weeks. Perhaps that’s because he has been winning matches — with some of them being straight-set victories — but the form just hasn’t been there. Djokovic was ripping his forehand in Cincinnati, where the fast courts gave him the weapon he needed to beat the world’s elite players. Here, most of his wins have come down to his opponents not being ready for the big moments. But Medvedev, who won this tournament in 2021, is a big-match player.
I expect Medvedev to do a good job of making Djokovic work for his service games, much like the Russian did with Alcaraz. Medvedev always sits way back on the court to return serves, which allows him to at least get his ball on the racquet. On Friday, he was hitting those returns with outrageous precision. Djokovic might not try to serve and volley quite as much as Alcaraz did, but Medvedev will be ready to hit passing shots if he does. And if he doesn’t, he’ll return it deep in the court and then grind Djokovic down from the baseline. This tournament has been the ultimate display of the advantage Medvedev has over his opponents in the conditioning department. He tracks down nearly every shot and forces his opponents to play a lot of extra balls. Djokovic has looked tired throughout the course of this tournament, so I question whether he’ll be able to keep up with that. Alcaraz was hitting some tired shots into the net late in the match against Medvedev. I believe you'll see some of the same from Djokovic.
Medvedev is also capable of really dialing things up with his serve, which is a very underrated aspect of his game at this point. The Russian’s hold percentage is down a bit in 2023, but he has been in the high 80’s over the past few years. And he won 82.0% of his first serve points against Alcaraz. I just don’t see any reason why he won’t be solid with the ball on his racquet here, which will be good enough when you factor in how good he is as a returner.
It's also worth noting that Medvedev is one of the few players on tour that doesn’t fear Djokovic. Sure, Medvedev has a ton of respect for the player on the other side of the net. But he knows that his best level is capable of matching anyone’s. He said before his win over Alcaraz that he’d need to play at an 11 out of 10 in order to win, and he ended up playing at a 12. I think 10 or 11 will be just fine in order to get the job done here. These conditions are absolutely perfect for Medvedev, who is at his best on quicker hard courts. And if the match ends up being played outside, I'd like this even more. Djokovic hasn't done a good job of dealing with heat and humidity this year.
Overall, I think this is a great opportunity to jump on plus-money odds to ride a red-hot player in a setting he’s going to relish. I have maintained throughout this tournament that Djokovic can’t win at the level he’s been playing at. I’m not backing away from that here. Medvedev beat Djokovic 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 on this very stage in 2021, winning his first and only Grand Slam title. I’m looking for him to make it two here, but maybe not in the same dominant fashion.
Bet: Medvedev ML (+210 - 2 units)
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09-10-23 05:36 PM |
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