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Arsenal look to make it three wins in a row to start the season when they host Fulham for a London Derby.

The Gunners survived on Monday at Selhurst Park after going down to 10 men for the final half hour to get all three points. If they are going to challenge Manchester City for the title those are the types of matches where they need to get all three points. They swept Fulham in both meetings last season and look very likely to do it again this season.

Fulham are a complete mess right now. They've been the worst defensive team through the first two match days and it doesn't look like it's getting better anytime soon. Aleksander Mitrovic is off to Saudi Arabia, leaving a huge hole at the striker position, so there is some real bottoming out potential with this squad.

Arsenal have showed through their first two matches that they aren't going to be a high-flying team that scores three or four goals a game, but they also aren't going to be the team that leaked goals towards the end of last season. Mikel Arteta's plan is pretty clear: he wants game control. Take the match against Nottingham Forest for example. Arsenal controlled 78% of the possession and attempted over 800 passes, but barely created 1 xG.

William Saliba is healthy, which is huge for Arsenal's build up play, and Arteta is now deploying Thomas Partey at right back. When Arsenal are in possession he's inverting him alongside Declan Rice in the midfield. This allows Arsenal to thwart off any counterattacking opportunities coming through the middle of the pitch, and it also allows Kai Havertz to get forward to create a 3-2-5 build up shape.

With Havertz getting forward, Arsenal can have three guys pushed up centrally on the opponent's back line, creating 1-v-1 opportunities for Martinelli and Saka in wide areas. Even though Arsenal have only created 2.9 xG through their first two matches, the tactical plan is to control matches and not concede needless goals in transitional moments.

Fulham were due for a ton of negative regression defensively and they should have conceded more against Brentford. The Bees scored three goals and created 3.7 xG as Fulham went down a man in the second half. That man was Tim Ream, who was their best defender a season ago. Per understat, Fulham conceded 71.4 xG, which was the most in the Premier League. They signed Calvin Bassey from Ajax to help bolster their defense, but he is more of a ball carrying and progressive passing defender rather than being an elite defensive-minded player.

Then there is Bernd Leno, who had an unreal shot-stopping season, putting up a +9.0 post shot xG +/-, per fbref.com. If he returns back down to normal, Fulham are absolutely screwed defensively, especially against elite attacks like Arsenal.

Lastly, Mitrovic is off to Saudi Arabia. He was insanely important to Fulham last season because when he was on the pitch, Fulham averaged 1.37 xG per 90 minutes. When he was off the pitch they only averaged 0.88 xG per 90 minutes. He also was incredibly important for Fulham's style of play.

The Cottagers completed the second-most crosses of anybody in the Premier League last year because they had one of the best aerial threats in the world at striker. They signed a washed up Raul Jimenez to be his replacement and he's done next to nothing thus far, taking just three shots in their first two matches.

Arsenal could pick their score against Fulham here, but given Arteta's tactical plan through their first two matches, I don't know if Arsenal are going to look to pour it on once they get ahead.

The Gunners are going to be much more like Pep Guardiola's Man City, desiring game control over anything else. They should be able to control this match with Fulham being a more direct transitional team. I do not know how Fulham score without Mitrovic unless it's off of a fluke counter. In both meetings against Arsenal last season Fulham only created a combined 1.6 xG, so I do not see them improving upon that.

Everton vs. Wolves
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET

As a result of more added-on time the Premier League is averaging nearly three goals per game. So, you need to be brave to be an Unders backer but as they say, “Scared money don’t make money”.

Regardless of how much time you have if you don’t have players to put the ball in the back of the net you don’t score goals. Neither of these teams has anyone who can do that.

Wolves created a huge number of chances against Manchester United on the opening weekend, had 23 shots but scored with none of them. They had another 16 at home to Brighton last weekend and only managed a consolation when they were already 4-0 down.

As for Everton, they were dreadful at Villa Park in their last match. They lost 4-0, but it could easily have been six or seven. They were that bad.

Sean Dyche is without two of his biggest threats as Alex Iwobi and Dominic Calvert-Lewin are out injured. They really are down to the bare bones and have nothing off the bench as it is filled with kids. Anyone holding a ticket for goals and sees Neal Maupay in the starting line-up you may as well rip it up. He has scored once in 31 appearances for the Toffees.

It may be early days in the season, but this is a huge clash for both sides after awful starts. It’s bottom vs. second from bottom, and we could see scared football here.

Both managers are already thinking of damage limitation, and they will be desperate not to lose. I think they would sign for a point right now and look to build on it.

Man United will look to put a first defeat of the season behind them on Saturday when they host a Nottingham Forest side that appears to be improving in its second season back in the Premier League.

Whether you believe Man U were deserving of their 2-0 loss at Tottenham Hottspur last Saturday depends on your footballing ideology. Yes, the Red Devils created as many good chances as they allowed. But they were also wasteful to an almost negligent degree, a crime generally punished at this level.

Meanwhile, Forest are proving to be fairly clinical two games into the new season, having scored on half of their six efforts on target. That includes substitute Chris Wood's 89th-minute match-winner in a 2-1 home win over Sheffield United to lift the curtain on match day 2 last Friday.

United won all four meetings between these sides across all competitions last season, outscoring Forest 10-0 combined over those games.

What differentiated Manchester United last season from other sides with strong home form is manager Erik Ten Hag's men rarely piled on the goals after going in front of overmatched opponents.

The simple explanation is an unclear identity at center forward despite an improved squad. The summer signing of Rasmus Hojlund is supposed to solve that, but his introduction has been delayed and won't be coming this weekend. Forest's Awoniyi would step into Man U's dressing room and immediately be the best option in the role.

Meanwhile, Forest seem to have taken a genuine step forward since their last meeting against Man U in April, having scored in every league match since that 3-0 home defeat. The xG totals didn't reflect that improvement last season, but they have through two games of the new campaign.

Burnley look to rebound from their opening match loss when they host Aston Villa at Turf Moor.

The Clarets were off last weekend as their match with Luton Town was postponed due to construction still ongoing at Kenilworth Road. They were beaten pretty badly by Manchester City in the opener, but Vincent Kompany's Burnley were by far the best team in the Championship a season ago. The question is, can their style of play that made them so dominant translate to the Premier League? Aston Villa will be a good test to find the answer.

Aston Villa rebounded from their 5-1 dismantling at St. James Park in match week 1 as they routed Everton 4-0 at Villa Park. Unai Emery's squad was one of the hottest teams in the Premier League over the second half of the season, but they did drastically over-perform their underlying metrics. They made some good signings in this transfer window to help them compete for the top six, but they need three points in matches like this if they are going to do just that.

Last season in the Championship not only did they drastically over-perform their underlying metrics, but Nathan Tella was basically their entire offense, scoring 17 goals. He has made a move to Southampton, leaving a hole in the front line. They did sign Zeki Amdouni, who scored 12 goals in the Swiss League for Basel, but expecting him to just replace Tella is a bit of stretch.

Aston Villa have over-performed under Emery, scoring 45 goals off of 39.2 xG and they are going to have issues trying to build out against Burnley's man-to-man high press.

Sheffield United vs. Manchester City
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. ET

Manchester City were supposed to be vulnerable last weekend. Missing several key players including Kevin De Bruyne. Pep Guardiola named a very inexperienced bench unable to freshen things up after a midweek trip to Athens to claim their first Super Cup.

The money certainly came for opponents Newcastle who were off the back of an impressive 5-1 thrashing of Aston Villa on the opening weekend. The treble winners had other ideas. They controlled the game, keeping possession and winning it back quickly when they did lose it. City allowed the visitors just one shot on target which came 20 minutes from time and were able to see the contest out with minimal fuss.

Phil Foden thrived in the absence of Kevin De Bruyne and created seven open-play chances, his best in a Premier League game. World Cup winner Julián Álvarez also started, and it was his name on the scoresheet at the Etihad rather than the usual Erling Haaland.

Two of United's better players from last season are likely to be sitting on the visitor’s bench for this one having returned from their loan demonstrating the gulf in class. Pep will not be there to see it as he is recovering from back surgery in Spain, but I’m sure he will be watching as his men keep up their 100% start to the season without conceding a goal.

Pick: Manchester City to win to nil at -133.