|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
NCAA Baseball Regionals
Welcome to the 2023 NCAA Baseball Tournament, where all roads lead to Omaha.
Our field of 16 Regionals has been set, with the SEC receiving a record-breaking eight entries as host.
Plenty of criticism has surrounded the NCAA committee and the selection process, as RPI continues to be the polarizing topic around seeding. Both Campbell and Boston College were projected to be Regional hosts, but losses in the conference tournament sent the Camels and Eagles packing for the road on opening weekend.
There were winners and losers from Regional announcements. For example, Vanderbilt hosts three teams that won their respective conference tournaments. Just as Vanderbilt is tied to the Stillwater Regional for Supers, the Fayetteville Regional is paired with Terre Haute and could potentially send Arkansas to Omaha without facing another SEC team.
Meanwhile, the hottest team in college baseball continues to be Clemson. The Tigers must survive the host role with Tennessee coming to town before hosting the winner of the Auburn Regional.
Since 2017, the Regional host has gone 72-8 against the 4-seed. Those prices are sure to be heavily juiced, but the real money-maker is when top seeds fall to the losers’ bracket after Game 1.
In the last five Regionals dating back to 2017, 2-seeds have beaten 4-seeds in the losers bracket in 31-of-35 contests. In the same time frame, 1-seeds have dominated 3- and 4-seeds in 16-of-18 contests. If a top two seed falls to the losers’ bracket on Saturday and Sunday, look to pounce on opening lines.
|
06-01-23 11:20 PM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Winston-Salem Regional
1.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-280)
2.
Northeastern Huskies (+650)
3.
Maryland Terrapins (+425)
4.
George Mason Patriots (+5000)
Game 1: Maryland (41-19) vs. Northeastern (44-14) · 1 p.m. Friday · ESPN+
Game 2: Wake Forest (47-10) vs. George Mason (34-25) · 7 p.m. Friday · ESPN+
In case you may have missed it, an overall No. 1 seed hasn’t won the College World Series since 1999 and hasn’t competed in Omaha since 2018. So, historical trends say the Demon Deacons may not survive through two weekends of postseason play in Winston-Salem.
Monitor the totals here, as David F. Couch Ballpark saw fewer runs per game on average than what the Deacons produced during road games.
The Northeastern staff posted top-10 national ranks in ERA and WHIP, but starters Aiven Cabral and Eric Yost are pitch-to-contact hurlers with low strikeout totals.
The Huskies are a dangerous draw with an impressive resume of wins over Duke and a sweep of Regional host Indiana State. Northeastern throttled Maryland on May 9, as Cabral projects a -210 favorite over the Terps’ Jason Savacool in the opening game. Keep in mind Maryland will be missing starter Kyle McCoy this weekend.
Wake Forest lost a grand total of three games at home this season, one of those coming in extra innings against Boston College.
Rhett Lowder is expected to be held back for Game 2, while Seth Keener is likely to get the nod against Ben Shields of George Mason. This could get ugly for the Patriots after playing six games in four days to win the A-10 Tournament as the sixth seed. Keener projects at -490 against Shields in the Demon Deacons’ first game.
To wrap this Regional, Lowder, Wake Forest’s ace, projects -250 or better against any pitcher on the staff of Northeastern. With Wake Forest projected as a 74%-85% winner in three straight games, the true odds on the Deacons fall at -260.
Look for Northeastern to steal the first game from Maryland before attempting to hang with Wake Forest. The price point for winning the series is -260 on Wake Forest and any number +800 or better on Northeastern.
|
06-01-23 11:21 PM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Gainesville Regional
1.
Florida Gators (-175)
2.
UConn Huskies (+500)
3.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+280)
4.
Florida A&M Rattlers (+7500)
Game 1: UConn (43-15) vs. Texas Tech (39-21) · Noon ET Friday · ESPNU
Game 2: Florida (44-14) vs. Florida A&M (29-28) · 5:30 p.m. ET Friday · ESPN+
The SEC Tournament Championship game was all hands on deck for Florida, which allowed 10 earned runs in the first three innings.
The loss did nothing to stop Florida from pulling the No. 2 national seed and drawing two of the worst defensive teams in Texas Tech and Florida A&M. UConn was sensational in making the Super Regionals just a year ago, taking the opening win at Stanford before losing two straight.
Florida is expected to throw Brandon Sproat, potentially saving Hurston Waldrep and Jac Caglianone for the Huskies on Saturday.
Sproat has thrown two complete games this season while eclipsing 100 strikeouts in 84 innings. The best two-way player, Caglianone, has plenty of Shohei Ohtani in his game, jacking the second-most home runs in Division I while making 15 pitching starts for the Gators.
Sproat is projected -195 against Hunter Viets of Florida A&M with a whopping total of 15.
The Texas Tech showdown with UConn is projected a near dead heat at -105 for the Red Raiders’ Mason Molina versus the Huskies’ Garrett Coe. The total in this game projects at 13.7, boosted by an above-average Park Factors number powered by the Gators’ total runs in Condron Park.
If there’s hesitation with one of these teams when it comes to record on the road, the Red Raiders won only six games away from Lubbock compared to 18 for UConn.
In lieu of playing UConn +115 in the opening game, the Regional price of +500 does have value, but it would need a hedge against Florida in the winners’ bracket.
Florida owns one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios in Division I, but expect a pesky UConn team to give the Gators a small sweat.
|
06-01-23 11:22 PM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Charlottesville Regional
1.
Virginia Cavaliers (-110)
2.
East Carolina Pirates (+255)
3.
Oklahoma Sooners (+390)
4.
Army Black Knights (+1500)
Game 1: Virginia (45-12) vs. Army (38-16) · Noon ET Friday · ESPN+
Game 2: East Carolina (45-17) vs. Oklahoma (31-26) · 7 p.m. ET Friday · ESPN2
There are plenty of storylines in Charlottesville, from Virginia getting a Super Regional slot to the history behind Oklahoma and East Carolina.
The Sooners entered last year’s Regionals as a 2-seed, first taking down Florida before Super Regional host Virginia Tech.
Oklahoma didn’t stop there, making it all the way to the College World Series Championship Series that ended with a loss to Ole Miss. Southpaw starter Braden Carmichael was a large part of that effort, and now he’s back in the Charlottesville Regional.
Is this the year for East Carolina? This will be the 33rd postseason appearance for a Pirates program that has also competed in seven Super Regionals. East Carolina has never made a trip to Omaha, but head coach Cliff Godwin brings another solid squad to the tournament.
No matter if Carter Spivey or Zach Root gets the start for the Pirates, the Sooners project as a -175 favorite in the opening game.
Despite the lack of pop in the sticks, Virginia earned hosting duties with 19 wins in ACC play. A quick exit from the conference tournament allows head coach Brian O’Connor to reset a staff that includes seniors Brian Edgington and Nick Parker. The Cavaliers project closer to -200 in the opener against Army’s Matthew Ronnebaum.
Lamar transfer Braxton Douthit is expected to get a start for the Sooners, possibly Saturday if not Friday. Projections will have Oklahoma as an underdog against Virginia because of Douthit and James Hitt’s numbers in ERA and FIP. At some point, the Cavaliers must go through Carmichael.
East Carolina is going to be the public darling in the futures market to advance, but the number on the Pirates and Virginia is oversold. This is a spot to back a longshot with a roster that’s loaded with Omaha experience.
|
06-01-23 11:28 PM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Conway Regional
1.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (+140)
2.
Duke Blue Devils (+145)
3.
UNC Wilmington Seahawks (+500)
4.
Rider Broncs (+1200)
Game 1: Duke (35-21) vs. UNCW (34-21) · 1 p.m. ET Friday · ESPN+
Game 2: Coastal Carolina (39-19) vs. Rider (35-19) · 7 p.m. ET Friday · ESPN+
Duke was in cruise control through the middle stretch of the ACC schedule, winning road series against Clemson and Boston College. With nonconference wins over Campbell and East Carolina, the Blue Devils were on fire before losing the final two series of the season.
Two one-run losses in the ACC Tournament knocked Duke back to a 2-seed, forcing it to pack suitcases for Conway and Regional host Coastal Carolina.
Starter Alex Gow is expected to get the start against Jacob Shafer of UNC Wilmington, projecting the Blue Devils at -210 for the opener. If closer James Tallon is not used against UNCW, expect a heavy dose of the freshman in the winners’ bracket against Coastal Carolina.
The Chanticleers are expected to roll through Rider, but the price point will depend on who head coach Gary Gilmore selects as a starter. Liam Doyle has made five starts this season, as the freshman has an ERA and FIP lower than the staff average.
No matter how you slice the starting pitchers for Duke and Coastal Carolina, the Blue Devils bring the much better staff and bullpen numbers from a FIP, ERA and xFIP perspective. Duke has the better bullpen and the edge in starters, along with a superior defensive percentage.
The big question is if Coastal Carolina can continue to blast balls out of the park. The Chanticleers scored 12% more runs at Springs Brooks Stadium than on the road in conference play, suggesting there will be runs put up against the Blue Devils’ staff.
The Regional is truly a toss-up between the top two seeds. If you’re sitting on futures for either, as I’m sitting on a Coastal 100-1, taking the other team to win the Regional is a great hedge.
Keep in mind the Charlottesville Regional is paired up with Conway, so this group of eight teams has a higher percentage of sending an underdog to Omaha.
|
06-01-23 11:30 PM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Auburn Regional
1.
Auburn Tigers (+130)
2.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+165)
3.
Samford Bulldogs (+600)
4.
Penn Quakers (+700)
Game 1: Southern Miss (41-17) vs. Samford (36-23) · 2 p.m. ET Friday · ESPN+
Game 2: Auburn (34-21-1) vs. Penn (32-14) · 7 p.m. ET Friday · ESPN+
Southern Miss has made the postseason 19 times since 1990 with only a single trip to Omaha on the resume. This version of the Golden Eagles is the most upperclassman-dominant yet thanks to COVID-19 rules and the extra season of play.
Head coach Scott Berry won the Sun Belt Tournament and now looks to steal a Regional at Auburn with an excellent pitching staff.
Samford comes to Auburn with a SoCon Tournament title but a poor 11-17 record away from home. John Anderson has mashed 22 home runs for the Bulldogs, but there may be no larger difference in pitching on Friday between Southern Miss and Samford.
Tanner Hall may get the start for Southern Miss, but he’ll more than likely be held for Auburn, while Billy Oldham could go on Friday.
The formula for Samford is much easier: Get enough innings out of Jacob Cravey to reach the staff cornerstone in closer Ben Petschke. Depending on the starting pitcher, Southern Miss projects -150 to -180 in the opener.
Penn will have the tough task of brining a struggling offense to an SEC venue. There’s a high probability Auburn will look to Tommy Vail in the opener, saving Chase Allsup for a potential Southern Miss game on Saturday.
Auburn projects at 12 runs in the opener, but there are historical reasons to look for overs at Plainsman Park. The Tigers have averaged 13% more runs per game at home than on the road in conference play over the past two seasons.
If Hall is saved for Saturday, Southern Miss is a slight favorite over Auburn. Equipped with a lower staff and bullpen ERA, FIP and xFIP, the Golden Eagles are primed for a Regional upset. Closer Justin Storm is certainly the difference, posting 59 strikeouts in just 35.2 innings with eight saves on the season.
Series: Southern Miss +165
Game 1: Samford Run Line (if no Tanner Hall for Southern Miss)
Game 2: Auburn vs. Penn Over 12 or Better
|
06-02-23 08:40 AM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Columbia Regional
1.
South Carolina Gamecocks (+125)
2.
Campbell Fighting Camels (+180)
3.
NC State Wolfpack (+310)
4.
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils (+3000)
Game 1: Campbell (44-13) vs. NC State (35-19) · 1 p.m. ET Friday · ACC Network
Game 2: South Carolina (39-19) vs. Central Connecticut State (36-12) · 7 p.m. ET Friday · ESPN+
The raging debate before the field of 64 was announced was the placement of Campbell and South Carolina. The committee served the consumer well by placing both of these teams in the Columbia Regional, promising a lit-up scoreboard at Founders Park.
Throw in an NC State team that was robbed of a national title a couple of seasons ago, and this will be the hottest tile selection on the ESPN+ board.
The Camels are no stranger to competition, sweeping East Carolina and logging wins over Coastal Carolina and North Carolina. Six players in the lineup have hit double-digit home runs, including more than 40 from Lawson Harrill and Jarrod Belbin.
NC State is one of the most well-rounded teams in the tournament, without a glaring deficiency in any category.
Closer Justin Lawson strikes out a fair amount of batters faced, while Dominic Fritton moves between the starting rotation and the bullpen. Logan Whitaker should get the nod in Game 1 against Cade Kuehler, as the Camels project -150 with a total of 11.6.
South Carolina has dealt with as many injuries as any other team this season, cooling off in SEC play down the stretch. Starter Eli Jones is sure to be saved for Campbell in the winners’ bracket, giving way to Jack Mahoney in the opener against Central Connecticut State lefty Dominic Niman.
Granted against lower competition, Niman owns a much lower ERA and FIP, making this opening projection South Carolina -135. A run-line wager on the Blue Devils is the opening play as the Gamecocks look to protect the best pitching options for Campbell.
With 200-1 futures on South Carolina and 100-1 futures on Campbell, this is a sit-and-watch Regional for this author.
For single-game purposes, Campbell’s Hunter Loyd projects -110 against South Carolina’s Jones if the two were to meet in the winners’ bracket.
There’s no value in either South Carolina +140 or Campbell +180 for the Regional, leaving bettors with a choice on South Carolina 25-1 or Campbell 60-1 as a future wager moving into the Super Regionals.
|
06-02-23 08:42 AM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Miami -135 vs. Texas
6 p.m. ET · ESPNU
We go from one heavyweight matchup to another, as Miami hosts Texas in this highly-anticipated winners’ bracket matchup. It all starts on the mound in this one with a likely pitching matchup between the Hurricanes’ Karson Ligon and the Longhorns’ Lebarron Johnson Jr.
On paper, the Longhorns have the edge on the bump. Johnson has been tremendous, pitching to a 2.82 ERA and holding the opposition to just a .223 average. However, Ligon was the Canes’ Friday night starter prior to going down with tendinitis.
Ligon looked good in his return, containing a daunting Wake Forest lineup over two-plus innings of work. Tonight, he’ll face a Texas lineup that has had issues with consistency. The Longhorns bats completely disappeared in the Big 12 Tournament, and it took them until the seventh to get going yesterday.
Texas won’t be able to go blow-for-blow with the Hurricanes. Miami should be able to touch up Johnson, whose FIP comes in over a run higher than his season ERA.
Lastly, if Miami is winning in the later half of the game, it could very well be over with Andrew Walters — the nation’s best closer — waiting in the wings.
|
06-03-23 05:20 PM |
|
|
| |
|