Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros: YRFI (-111)
It goes without saying that the Angels boast an extremely dangerous lineup at the top, led by Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. It wouldn’t come as any surprise if they plate at least 1 run right away against Astros starter Cristian Javier. Trout has never done anything against Javier, but Ohtani has taken him deep twice. Javier has been pitching well on the whole, but he is prone to being victimized by 1 swing of the bat. The right-hander has served up at least 1 home run in a ridiculous 4 straight games and in 8 of his last 9.

Meanwhile, the Astros scored 2 first-inning runs on Friday and I expect them to take advantage of Patrick Sandoval early and often in Saturday’s contest. Yordan Alvaraz is 4-for-14 lifetime in the matchup with 2 homers and a double; Alex Bregman is 5-for-11 with a homer, a triple and a double. Two starts ago, Sandoval allowed 3 runs in the opening frame to the Minnesota Twins.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets: NRFI (-115)
The Mets are infamously bad at producing early runs. In fact, they rank dead last in the league in that department so far this season. New York didn’t score a single run in any inning of yesterday’s 3-0 loss to Toronto. Now, the home team faces Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios, who has surrendered a first-inning run only once in his last 5 outings. Berrios has delivered 3 consecutive quality starts, compiled a 3.19 ERA in the month of May and over his past 2 appearances has given up just 1 run in 12.2 innings

New York is countering with Tylor Megill. The right-hander hasn’t been on fire of late, but he has at least made 2 straight starts without allowing a first-inning run. Brandon Belt is 3-for-7 lifetime against Megill, but nobody else in Toronto’s lineup has done anything notable at his expense.

Kyle Bradish has posted a perfect 9-0 NRFI record this season and has lowered his overall ERA a full run from last year’s rookie campaign (4.90 to 3.89). He also pitched to a 2.76 ERA in May compared to 6.14 in April, so the young righty is trending in a very positive direction. Bradish gets a completely fresh look at this Giants lineup, which is always advantageous to the NRFI.

Alex Cobb has posted an average 8-3 NRFI record this season, but he’s 4-0 at Oracle Park, which correlates to his significantly lower ERA at home than on the road (1.80 to 4.22). The top of the Orioles lineup doesn’t scare me away from Camden Yards, with just a 14.2% scoring rate this season (4-for-28). The analytics back that up, as Baltimore has the 6th lowest 1st inning wRC+ against RHP on the road.

Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:



Kyle Bradish vs:

LaMonte Wade Jr. (never faced)

J.D. Davis (never faced)

Mike Yastrzemski (never faced)



Alex Cobb vs:

Adam Frazier (0-for-3)

Adley Rutschman (never faced)

Anthony Santander (0-for-3)

Bet: No Run First Inning (-120)