Padres (-155, 7.5) at Pirates: A little bit of love for JT Brubaker and the Pirates here. If you want to try to get ahead of line movements, there are two major indicators: ERA-FIP and LOB%. How much higher or lower is a pitcher’s ERA than his FIP? In the case of Brubaker, he has a 6.46 ERA with a 4.73 FIP. His LOB% is 49.5%, which is among the lowest in the league. Even against the Padres, bettors will speculate on some better returns.

Reds at Rockies (-140, 11): Bettors are not convinced that Chad Kuhl is the real deal, so they’re willing to side with the Reds today. Kuhl has a .190 BABIP against and an 86.7% LOB%, so those are two indicators of negative regression. I am surprised that Connor Overton is getting some favor as a guy that has mostly pitched as a reliever throughout pro ball and has just 15.1 innings to his name. I guess that’s how skeptical the market is of Kuhl with a 10-15 cent move on the visitors.

Twins at Rays (-190, 7.5): Shane McClanahan has gotten a lot of support already today for this matchup with former Tampa Bay right-hander Chris Archer. This move is two-fold. The first part is that the market loves Shane Mac and should. He’s got elite stuff and peripherals. The second is that Archer has a 3.18 ERA with a 5.22 FIP in his 11.1 innings of work. He’s running a 90.2% LOB% with a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. Those are all indicators of negative regression and will create line moves.

Yankees (-220, 8) at Royals: We’re back to the auto 20-cent line move on Gerrit Cole, as his price goes up on the overnights basically every time he pitches. That’s the case again today against the Royals and Carlos Hernandez. It’s been like this for a while, so if you think you might want to invest in a Cole start, do it early.

Mariners at Marlins (-110, 7.5): Flipped favorite scenarios are pretty rare in MLB, but we have one here today with the Marlins now laying a short number against the Mariners. Robbie Ray and Jesus Luzardo are the slated starters in this one. The markets seem to be skeptical of Ray coming off of last season and his 90% LOB%. I can’t really blame them.