let's get around to it !
GL

The COVID-19 pandemic continues its weekly impact on the NFL, but especially heading into Week 15. Baker Mayfield, Chris Jones and Rashawn Slater are among the high-profile players recently put on the COVID-19/reserve list.

Here is an updated look at each team's COVID-19 situation heading into Week 15.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 52) at Los Angeles Chargers
Chiefs

WR Josh Gordon (Dec. 13)

TE Jody Fortson (Dec. 10)

DT Chris Jones (Dec. 14)

Chargers

T Rashawn Slater (Dec. 13)

C Scott Quessenberry (Dec. 9)

Saturday
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5, 38.5) at Cleveland Browns
Raiders

None

Browns

QB Baker Mayfield (Dec. 15)

S John Johnson III (Dec. 15)

DT Malik McDowell (Dec. 15)

DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (Dec. 15)

TE Austin Hooper (Dec. 14)

WR Jarvis Landry (Dec. 14)

DE Takkarist McKinley (Dec. 14)

G Wyatt Teller (Dec. 14)

T Jedrick Wills (Dec. 14)

P Jamie Gillan (Dec. 9)

LB Anthony Walker (Dec. 9)

TE David Njoku (Dec. 7)

TE Stephen Carlson (Dec. 6)

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 45.5)
Patriots

TE Dalton Keene (Dec. 13)

RB J.J. Taylor (Nov. 29)

Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 52) at Los Angeles Chargers
I opened Kansas City -3.5. The first sharp bet was on the Chiefs, so I quickly went to -4. I wanted to get out in front of any bandwagon effect. Kansas City’s a public team that’s covered four in a row, but at KC -4, other sharps jumped on the Chargers. Those sharps kept betting LAC + 3.5. I’m down to the key number of 3. Maybe that first bet was a head fake. I expect the public to play the Chiefs between now and kickoff. Looks like sharps will take + 3.5 or better whenever it’s offered in a divisional rivalry game that both teams need in the playoff chase.

My opening total of 50.5 has climbed the ladder to 51, 51.5 and 52. I could see this one rising further. You regulars know the public loves betting Overs in standalone TV games because it’s more fun to root for points. Weather won’t be an issue indoors in LA. On the side and total, this will be a heavily bet game.

Perception plays such a huge role with NFL lines. Take, for example, this Thursday Night Football game. Los Angeles won the first meeting 30-24. The Chargers were + 4 in turnover margin, as both teams had 5.8 yards per play. The Chiefs racked up 6.2 yards per carry, which has been the bugaboo for the Chargers all season long.

The rematch is this week. Even though the Chargers won the first game, have more yards per play on offense and have allowed fewer yards per play on defense, the Chiefs are a clear road favorite. Kansas City has won six in a row, but the only quality opponents during that run are the Packers (who didn’t have Aaron Rodgers after his positive COVID-19 test), and the Cowboys.

Even though the Chiefs are tied for third in the NFL in turnovers with 23, they are also third in percentage of possessions ending with points; Los Angeles is eighth. Even with all of the giveaways, the Chiefs are 14th in percentage of opponents’ drives ending in points, while the Chargers, who have only 15 turnovers in 13 games, rank 24th in preventing points.

As you probably know by now, there have been some schedule changes this week in pro football. I usually write my NFL market reports for you on Friday mornings Las Vegas time. News was breaking all over the country when I was putting this together.

For the three games that were moved due to covid outbreaks…Las Vegas/Cleveland from Saturday to Monday, Washington/Philadelphia from Sunday to Tuesday, and Seattle/LA Rams from Sunday to Tuesday…I’m going to only talk briefly about those matchups until the dust settles.

New England at Indianapolis (-2.5, 45.5)

A potential playoff preview that everyone’s looking forward to. I opened Indianapolis -1.5 and sharps laid it, and then laid -2 after my first move. I’m currently at Indy -2.5. I have been getting good play on the Patriots along the way. My ticket count is about 2/1 for the Pats. I respect the wiseguys. But, there’s no reason for me to go to the key number of 3if the public is already betting New England. Recreational bettors have been playing the Patriots on the moneyline at + 120. I’m currently at Colts -135/Pats + 115. There’s also a good amount of six-point teaser money on the Patriots at + 7.5, + 8, or + 8.5. My opening total of 45 has been bet up to 45.5. I’m still taking some Over money. Not enough yet to move to 46.

Sunday, 12/19/2021 (319) HOUSTON vs. (320) JACKSONVILLE
Favoring: HOUSTON against the spread.
Play On - Road underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
(36-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +29.4 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2 +2.8 units).

Sunday, 12/19/2021 (319) HOUSTON vs. (320) JACKSONVILLE
Favoring: HOUSTON against the spread.
Play On - Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
(48-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.7%, +33.7 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (7-3 +3.7 units).

Sunday, 12/19/2021 (319) HOUSTON vs. (320) JACKSONVILLE
Favoring: HOUSTON against the spread.
Play On - Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
(25-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.3%, +21.7 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +2.9 units).

Tuesday, 12/21/2021 (339) WASHINGTON vs. (340) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: WASHINGTON against the spread.
Play Against - Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%)
(26-4 since 1983.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 12/19/2021 (309) NY JETS vs. (310) MIAMI
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (MIAMI) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (<=-7 PPG differential), after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games
(31-5 since 1983.) (86.1%, +25.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 12/19/2021 (321) ARIZONA vs. (322) DETROIT
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams against the total (DETROIT) - off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more, team with a losing record in the second half of the season
(45-14 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.3%, +29.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1 -0.1 units).

Sunday, 12/19/2021 (319) HOUSTON vs. (320) JACKSONVILLE
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season
(31-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2 units).

Sunday, 12/26/2021 (469) JACKSONVILLE vs. (470) NY JETS
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams against the total (NY JETS) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season
(31-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2 units).

Tuesday, 12/21/2021 (337) SEATTLE vs. (338) LA RAMS
Favoring: LA RAMS on the first half line.
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (SEATTLE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record
(36-7 since 1983.) (83.7%, +28.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Tuesday, 12/21/2021 (337) SEATTLE vs. (338) LA RAMS
Favoring: LA RAMS on the first half line.
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (SEATTLE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
(26-4 since 1983.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 12/19/2021 (323) ATLANTA vs. (324) SAN FRANCISCO
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the first half line.
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (ATLANTA) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, team with a losing record in the second half of the season
(66-24 since 1983.) (73.3%, +39.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

Tuesday, 12/21/2021 (337) SEATTLE vs. (338) LA RAMS
Favoring: LA RAMS on the first half line.
Play Against - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (SEATTLE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
(34-8 since 1983.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Monday, 12/20/2021 (331) MINNESOTA vs. (332) CHICAGO
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two teams with <=1.25 turnovers/game forced, after 2 consecutive games where they forced no turnovers
(49-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.0%, +34.7 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (12-2 +9.8 units).

Sunday, 12/26/2021 (469) JACKSONVILLE vs. (470) NY JETS
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (JACKSONVILLE) - in a game involving two teams with poor turnover differentials (-0.75/game or better) after 8+ games
(64-20 since 1983.) (76.2%, +42 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 12/26/2021 (469) JACKSONVILLE vs. (470) NY JETS
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 (NY JETS) - in a game involving two teams with poor turnover differentials (-0.75/game or better) after 8+ games
(64-20 since 1983.) (76.2%, +42 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Sunday, 12/19/2021 (325) CINCINNATI vs. (326) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total (CINCINNATI) - off a home loss, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season
(31-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3 -0.3 units).

Washington at Philadelphia

Now it will be played on Tuesday. Game day line (and total) will be largely influenced by who’s starting at quarterback for Washington.

Carolina at Buffalo (-12, 45)

I opened Buffalo -10.5 and took some early money on the Bills, so I moved to -11. As Josh Allen became more likely to get the start (foot sprain), the point spread rose to Buffalo -12. I moved on a mix of money and news. Not all the big favorites are being used in moneyline parlays this week. Buffalo is a popular choice because the Bills need a win after losing to the Patriots. Sharps bet Over my opening total of 43.5. I moved to 44, and then straight to 45 when Overs stayed popular. That must mean the weather will be nice! Forecast shows cold temperatures, but not too windy.

NY Jets at Miami (-9.5, 41.5)

Miami went on the board at -9 and sharps laid -9 and also -9.5, so I went to -10. Underdog play at the relatively key number dropped the number back to 9.5. I’m seeing some 7-point teasers on Miami, bringing the line down through 7 and 3 to -2 or -2.5. My opening total of 43 was bet down to 42 and 41.5. A 70 percent chance of rain with some wind may be a factor. The Jets play sloppy even in good weather.

Dallas (-10.5, 44.5) at the NY Giants

First time in a while that I won’t be talking about early sharp money on the Giants. Wiseguys have given up on quarterback Mike Glennon. My opening line of Dallas -10.5 hasn’t budged. I’ve taken a lot of small, recreational bets on the Cowboys, but not enough yet to lift the line to -11. The Dallas offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders of late. That makes it hard for the public to lay a big number on the road. My opening total of 45 was bet down to 44.5. Seven of the last eight Giants’ games have gone Under, six of the last seven Cowboys’ games.

Green Bay (-6.5, 43.5) at Baltimore

Note that this was changed to a later kickoff Sunday on FOX. It was originally an early start. My opening line of Green Bay -4.5 was bet to -5.5, -6 and -6.5. That was from a mix of money and news. Sharps laid up to -5.5 with the Pack, but stopped at -6. Followers kept laying -6. Headlines are suggesting Aaron Rodgers will be able to play productively for Green Bay, while Lamar Jackson is a hobbled question mark for the Ravens. I’ve been taking a decent amount of teaser action on the Packers. Almost no action on my opening total of 43.5. Bettors want to know more about Jackson’s game-time status. Keep an eye on the weather here. Supposed to be windy Sunday in Baltimore.

Tennessee (-1, 42.5) at Pittsburgh

I opened Tennessee -2. Sharps took Pittsburgh and the points, so I dropped straight to Tennessee -1. I’m getting two-way play at 1, but there’s more money on the Steelers. I may end up at pick-em. Tennessee’s only cover the past month was against lowly Jacksonville last Sunday. I took a pretty big Over bet at my opener of 41.5. I went straight to 42.5. Weather should be okay based on that alone. But, always keep an eye on game-day forecasts in these northern cities in December just in case.

Houston at Jacksonville (-5, 39.5)

So much has been happening these past few hours that Urban Meyer’s firing has already been lost in the shuffle! I had opened Jacksonville -3 and sharps laid that, so I went to -3.5. Then Meyer was fired. I moved straight to -5 on the news. Most observers thought he was dragging the team down. There’s been very little interest in Houston after the move. I’m glad I adjusted that much. Bettors have been playing Jacksonville on the moneyline through the drama. They laid -155, -170, and -175. I’ve moved all the way to -220 now. I moved my opening total of 40.5 down to 39.5 based on one sharp Under bet.

Arizona (-13, 47.5) at Detroit

Sharps liked Detroit at my opener of + 13.5 and they’re still taking + 13. But, I’m getting enough Cardinals money from the public to keep the line right there. We’ll see what happens through the weekend. Sharps may drive the number down to + 12.5 if public enthusiasm for this big favorite softens. Not much action yet on my opening total of 47.5.