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msudogs
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Chelsea take on Rennes in group stage four of the Champions League knowing the win will edge them closer to qualification for the last 16. Frank Lampard’s team sit top of Group E level on points with Sevilla and their 2-0 win over Newcastle on the weekend extended their unbeaten run to nine games in all competitions.
Frank Lampard’s side are going from strength to strength at the moment after their 2-0 victory away at Newcastle, which was just their second win at St James’ Park in the last eight years.
A win here could see the Blues qualify for the last-16 already, though that relies on Sevilla beating Krasnodar in the other game in this group.
After a really strong start to the season, the losses of Edouard Mendy and Rafinha to the Premier League are starting to take their toll on Rennes as they’ve won just one of their last eight fixtures across all competitions and losing five of the last six.
On form, it’s hard to envisage anything other than an away win here, especially seeing as the French side haven’t scored yet in their three matches in November, while the Blues have nine goals so far this month and it’s therefore a wonder why Chelsea aren’t shorter in the market.
The London side have lost just once over 90 minutes in all competitions this season, with that defeat coming to Liverpool having gone down to 10 men around the half way mark, and a defeat here would be a real shock to the system.
The only reason they may be as long as they are is that Lampard will likely opt to rest a few of his star players in preparation for hosting Spurs on Sunday.
Full-backs Reece James and Ben Chilwell are among the main candidates to be rested, while N’golo Kante has been as effective as ever in recent weeks, and they’ll want to wrap him in cotton wool ahead of the clash against Jose Mourinho’s men.
Even if they do opt to rest players, however, their summer spending has allowed incredibly strength in depth, with players able to fit into the side seamlessly and we still feel they’ll have too much for this Rennes side who look like they can’t buy a goal at the moment.
The Blues very rarely tiptoe over the line, and all eight victories this season have come by a minimum of two clear goals. That’s also five wins on the bounce now, with each covering the -1 handicap.
A weakened side could be viewed as a downgrade in quality, though with such competition for places in this Chelsea squad, those selected in this match will certainly have a point to prove and we’d expect whatever side Lampard chooses to be at the races, and the -1 handicap looks to hold tremendous value too.
That would have been a very doubtful bet last season, as prior to the reverse fixture just a couple of weeks ago, just one of Rennes’ last 18 defeats had come by more than a single strike, though as mentioned, ridding Edouard Mendy and star player Rafinha has been detrimental to their squad, and they also succumbed to the same 3-0 scoreline against PSG just before the international break, so we’re confident the English side can get a comfortable win against a team extremely low on confidence at the moment.
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11-23-20 11:38 PM |
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Manchester United turn their attention back to the Champions League and Group H opponents Istanbul Basaksehir. United sit top of Group H level on points with Leipzig and the win will edge them closer to qualification for the last 16, however they will be mindful that last time out the visitors got the better of them in a 2-1 win
Man Utd were fortunate to come away with three points in the Premier League when they faced 18th placed West Brom at the weekend. A twice-taken second-half Bruno Fernandes penalty was enough to separate the teams at Old Trafford and they’ll now want to put their attention on this encounter to stay top of Group H.
Istanbul Basaksehir on the other hand, were left frustrated after they lost to rivals Besiktas in their domestic league, although they did well to come back from a man and three-goals down in the 70th minute to lose by just one strike (3-2).
That was their first defeat in four matches as they beat all of Konyaspor, Genclerbirligi and Man Utd themselves in the reverse fixture and this will be another opportunity to put their name on the European map.
That victory over their hosts was somewhat of an anomaly though, with them losing all four matches in this competition prior to that when including playoffs dating back to the start of last year.
In fact, they failed to score in each of those too, as all the last three finished exactly 2-0 against Olympiacos (A), Leipzig (A) and PSG (H).
The Red Devils have struggled at Old Trafford this season, going W2-D1-L3 from their six outings, but having won half the last four and conceding just once across them, including a 5-0 thrashing of Leipzig last month, they should have enough about them to seek revenge on this Turkish outfit.
Across all competitions on the road, Istanbul have lost more than half their seven trips to opposition this term, and with those two goals last time out being their only such strikes in defeat, we wouldn’t be surprised if they failed to get on the scoreboard again.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will certainly know how important this game is for his charges and the security of his job.
He’ll opt to put all his strong starters in the side therefore, and we certainly like the chances of Marcus Rashford adding to his goals tally this season.
The English striker got his first hat trick for Man Utd in their last European encounter here when hosting Leipzig, while he also netted against PSG prior to that, and with him currently joint top with the most Champions League goals this season with four, alongside all of Diego Jota, Alvaro Morata and Erling Haaland, he’ll be eager to add to that tally.
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11-24-20 08:12 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Olympiacos vs Manchester City | Wednesday 25th November 2020, 12:55
Who would have thought that after eight games of the Premier League season, Manchester City would have scored just 10 goals, have a negative goal difference and find themselves languishing in 13th place?
The answer is obviously not many and few – including myself – can surely believe that such a run will go on for much longer.
City were beaten by Tottenham at the weekend in typical Mourinho fashion, as despite having 22 shots to their opponents four and enjoying 67% of possession, The Citizens failed to find the net.
Indeed, despite having conceded more Premier League goals than they have scored themselves this season, Pep Guardiola’s side have had 60 more shots than their opponents. Expected Goals (xG) statistics suggest that they should have scored 2.4 more goals, so I am pretty sure that goals will start to flow for City soon (Sergio Aguero’s return to fitness may also boost that one).
City are resting Kevin De Bruyne for this game but they still possess the creative talents of Ferran Torres, Raheem Sterling and Ben Foden so I don’t think there will be any shortage of opportunities for Aguero on his likely return to the starting XI.
City comfortably despatched Olympiakos at The Etihad three weeks ago but the Greek side tend to be more competitive at home. They beat Marseille 1-0 in their only game at the Karaiskaki Stadium in this competition to date.
Moreover, last term they managed to score twice at home to both Bayern Munich and Tottenham. With this in mind, I think it is likely that they will find the net against City, but do expect Pep’s side to emerge victorious, which makes a City win and Over 2.5 Goals my best bet as it could well land even if the hosts fail to net.
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11-25-20 11:50 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Tottenham vs Ludogorets | Thursday 26th November 2020, 3:00
Jose Mourinho’s men welcome Ludogorets Razgrad to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Thursday. Confidence will be sky high after claiming victory against Manchester City at the weekend and, on paper, they should breeze past a Razgrad side who’ve not played a competitive match in almost three weeks.
Spurs won the reverse fixture 3-1 and now find themselves top of the group on goal difference. They’re level on points with both Antwerp and LASK, but with those two facing each other, this game provides the perfect opportunity for Spurs to take a step further towards progressing as group winners.
Stanislav Genchev’s side are currently top of the Bulgarian First League. Following their defeat to Spurs, they claimed a huge win away to CSKA Sofia. Unfortunately for them, that was their last competitive fixture as meetings with Sportist Svoge and Botev Plovdiv either side of the international break were postponed.
The Eagles are currently having a torrid time in the Europa League, the Bulgarian side have lost all three group matches so far.
Tottenham:
Have won FIVE of their last SIX UEL matches.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in SIX of Spurs last SEVEN UEL games.
Have scored 2+ goals in SIX of their last SEVEN UEL games.
Have received just ONE card across their THREE UEL group stage games so far.
Team news:
Toby Alderweireld was forced off with 10 minutes to go in Tottenham's 2-0 win over Manchester City and misses out and with Joe Rodon ineligible, Davinson Sanchez is expected to start alongside Eric Dier at the heart of the defence.
Jose Mourinho has confirmed that Matt Doherty has returned to training after a bout of COVID-19 and he should start at right-back.
Erik Lamela and Harry Winks will both be assessed.
Carlos Vinicius, Gareth Bale and Giovani Lo Celso are among those pushing to start.
Ludogorets:
Have lost FIVE of their last SIX UEL games.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in their last THREE UEL matches.
Have conceded 2+ goals in FIVE of their last SIX UEL games.
Have seen at least a card in all THREE of their UEL group stage games so far.
Team news:
Higinio and Wanderson are Ludogorets' only injury concerns ahead of their trip to Tottenham.
The Bulgarian side started in a 4-4-2 setup when the pair met earlier this month, but may revert to a 4-3-3 in the capital.
Georgi Terziev should get the nod ahead of Cosmin Moti at the heart of the defence.
Referee: Giorgi Kruashvili
Has taken charge of THREE UEL fixtures since November last year, awarding a total of 12 cards. An average of FOUR cards per game.
Analysis
My first pick is a Bet Builder. I’m going with Ludogorets to be awarded over 13.5 free kicks but Spurs to see under 3 cards in total. This bet has landed in TWO of the last THREE UEL games that the visitors have played, the one in which it didn’t land was when the Spanish Mike Dean (Javier Estrada) was in charge.
Thursday’s referee is Giorgi Kruashvili who has a much lower average and is likely to be far more lenient. Spurs are yet to see 2+ cards in any Europa League game this season and i don’t think they’ll start here, on home soil.
My second bet is exactly the same one I picked in the reverse fixture. I’m going with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. It landed then and I do think it could land again here. It’s also 6/4 on Bet365 yet just 11/10 elsewhere.
Of the last 20 Europa League games that Spurs have played at home, they’ve conceded in 14 of them (70%). Meanwhile, of Ludogorets last 20 away games in the UEL, they’ve also scored in 14 of them (70%). I think this is somewhat overpriced and for that reason, I’m happy to have a play on a bet that won for us last time out.
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11-26-20 01:30 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Molde vs Arsenal | Thursday 26th November 2020, 12:55
Arsenal head to Norway to take on Molde in search of their fourth win in as many games in their Europa League group. Qualification for the knockout phases looks all but secure already for The Gunners but they need to put in a performance for their fans after a pretty dire display at Leeds last weekend.
Nicolas Pepe has so often shone in the Europa League for Arsenal and has been given his backing by his manager Mikel Arteta after his red card at Elland road on Sunday. His moment of stupidity left Arteta furious, but he has been given a chance to redeem himself as he has travelled.
Pepe apologised publicly and reportedly to his team-mates, and Arteta has rubbished claims it is the start of the end of the Ivorian’s Arsenal career. Joining Pepe on the flight to Norway are a few of the academy’s youth prospects.
Ben Cottrell and Miguel Azeez, two of the Under-23s star central midfielders, have both travelled for The Gunners, along with highly regarded striker Folarin Balogun. Arteta has the option of five substitutions in the Europa League, and a 23-man squad. Whether this trio will play any part is to be seen but it will be a great experience for them.
Arsenal have had to travel on Tuesday evening though, due to Norwegian government guidelines on Covid, so will be well rested and energised for this game.
The Gunners dispatched Molde 4-1 at The Emirates just three weeks ago, despite going a goal behind early on. They out-shot the visitors 17-6 and dominated the ball with 59%. Arsenal have the third highest possession stats in this season’s Europa League, along with the third highest shots-per-game. They have a weak group, though, and should be dominating these games.
Molde have a relatively settled XI in the Europa League with Ohi Omoijuanfo leading the line. The Nigerian-Norwegian striker has 61 goals in just 48 games for his club.
Goals is the trend in general for Molde, who have seen over 2.5 goals cop in 44 of their last 55 games in all competitions, dating back to the start of the 2019/20 Eliteserien campaign. Goals are a formality in that division and whilst Arsenal tend to see low scoring games in the Premier League, with a transition and change of philosophy taking place, the openness of this game may play into Arsenal’s hands.
Molde have scored in seven of their last eight Europa League games and haven’t lost at home in this competition since 2015 – a run of 10 games across the five years.
Arsenal also compliment a goal heavy approach here given they have scored nine goals in this group already, and their Europa League games tend to see more goals in general. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 10/11 takes appeal given the attacking nature of Molde and also how prolific Arsenal have been in this competition over the last few years. They very rarely fail to find the net in the Europa League.
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11-26-20 03:06 PM |
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