1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Clippers (46-22) vs Portland Trail Blazers (32-38)

This early afternoon Western Conference showdown is a massive mismatch in terms of motivation. The Clippers have far less to play for than the Blazers. Los Angeles is the No. 2 seed in the West. They are mathematically eliminated from the No. 1 seed as they sit five games behind the Lakers with four games remaining. The only concern for Los Angeles is keeping Denver in their rear view. The No. 3 seed Nuggets trail the Clippers by 1.5 games. Meanwhile, the Blazers are fighting for their playoff lives. Portland is 3-1 in the bubble and only trails the Grizzlies by 1 game for the 8th and final playoff spot. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4.5-point favorite. Sharps immediately grabbed the points with red-hot Portland, pushing the line down to 4. Some books are even down to 3.5. This is also a revenge game for the Blazers. They've lost both matchups to Los Angeles this season, 107-101 and 117-97.

Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers enter the front end of a back-to-back without Patrick Beverly (calf) and Montrezl Harrell (personal). This game is important for them to lock up the second seed, but the Clippers likely do not care who they play in the first round.

The Clippers have the third-best Net Rating in the bubble, per NBA.com. They take good shots, they protect the basketball, and they defend well. If you had to point out one aspect of their game where they are lacking, it’s their offensive rebounding (19.9%/19th, per Cleaning the Glass).

Even without Harrell and Beverly, the Clippers don’t miss a beat. In lineups without those two players, the Clippers have a +8.6 Net Rating and score 115.6 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are piping hot. They are coming off commanding wins against the Nuggets and Rockets and they are 3-0-1 ATS in the bubble.

The Blazers will likely be without Hassan Whiteside (doubtful – hip), but given the match-up and their depth in the front court, I don’t think this will be a huge issue.

The Clippers will need to contain the spectacular Damian Lillard, who is averaging 31.25 ppg and 11.25 assists in the bubble. I’m curious to see if the Clippers will trap Lillard and pressure him with either Kawhi Leonard or Paul George while bringing a second defender for the double team or if they will attempt to cover him with just one of Leonard and George. Lillard has had a difficult time working through double teams out of pick and rolls, so it’s critical that Gary Trent, Jr. and C.J. McCollum shoot well from the floor.

Both the Clippers and the Blazers are shooting the ball well, they both have top-four in eFG% and they both have top-five offensive ratings in the bubble, per Cleaning the Glass and NBA.com. Both of these teams play slowly though, as both are near the bottom in the bubble in terms of pace. I expect this game to be played in the half-court as both teams will work for the best looks.

12:30 p.m. ET: Washington Wizards (24-45) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (42-26)



This is the earliest matchup of the day. The Wizards are 0-5 in the bubble and mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is tied with Utah for the 5-seed in the West. The Thunder are 2-2 in the bubble and coming off a bad 121-92 blowout loss to Memphis as a 3-point favorite. This game opened with OKC listed as a 9.5-point favorite. The public sees an easy layup with the Thunder. However, despite two-thirds of bets running to the window to lay the points, we've seen this line dip slightly to 9. This signals some respected money coming down on Wizards + 9.5, triggering reverse line movement in favor of Washington. We've also seen some sharp action hit the under, dropping the total from 225 to 224. The under is 4-1 in Wizards games since the restart and 3-1 in Thunder games.

2 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies (33-37) vs Toronto Raptors (49-19)



After jumping out to a dreadful 0-4 start in the bubble, Memphis finally got off the schneid and won the first game of the restart on Friday by upsetting OKC 121-92 as 3-point dogs. They also did it without injured star Jaren Jackson Jr. Memphis is in a huge urgency and motivation spot as they're clinging to the final playoff seed out West and must win to keep the No. 8 seed. Meanwhile, the Raptors don't have much to play for. They are firmly entrenched as the No. 2 seed in the East and highly unlikely to rise or fall either direction. This line opened with Toronto listed as a 7-point favorite. Some books opened at 8 or 7.5 and immediately got hit with Memphis money, dropping the line down to 7. The Raptors are getting two-thirds of bets, yet the books that opened at 7 are still at 7. This signals a sharp line freeze on the Grizzlies plus the points in a desperation game.

The Washington Wizards face off against the Oklahoma City Thunder at 12:30 p.m. ET in the first of seven Sunday NBA games.

The Wizards have struggled in the seeding round in Orlando as they have lost all five of their games by between eight and 13 points without their top three players — Bradley Beal, John Wall and Davis Bertans — in the bubble.

While the Wizards were eliminated from playoff contention on Friday, the Thunder are still in the thick of a clogged Western Conference. They enter Sunday tied with the Jazz for the 5-seed, just a game behind the Rockets in fourth and two games ahead of the Mavericks in seventh.

Washington Wizards
Shabazz Napier was the lone Wizard in the bubble on Saturday’s injury report. He is listed as probable for Sunday’s action due to a sprained right ankle. Napier, along with Ish Smith, is one of two players older than 23 consistently in the Wizards’ rotation.

The Wizards are just 1-4 ATS in the bubble and own the worst Net Rating among all 22 teams at -9.9. The Wizards also remain dead last in points allowed per possession this season and have allowed the second-most points per possession among all NBA teams dating back to 1996 (when the league began tracking per-possession statistics).

Although they have been eliminated from postseason contention, the Wizards are still plenty motivated as many of these young players are competing for bigger roles on the team in 2021 while also showcasing their talents to other NBA teams.

Thomas Bryant is one of the young Wizards to stand out in the bubble. The center has averaged 20.2 points and 9.8 rebounds while shooting 53/40/70. He also has shown some progress on the defensive end, as he gained valuable experience guarding the best center in the league, Joel Embiid, on Wednesday.

Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder will be without two key contributors Sunday: Sixth Man of the Year candidate Dennis Schroeder (birth of child) and Steven Adams (lower leg) both won’t play.

The Thunder have had an up-and-down bubble, alternating wins and losses. Most recently, they lost an overtime thriller on Monday against the Nuggets and then impressed against the Lakers, holding L.A. to a season-low 86 points in a win on Wednesday.

They followed that performance with a quick start against a Grizzlies team that was winless in the bubble by racing out to a 37-19 lead. However, the Grizzlies stormed back to take the lead in the second quarter and blew out the Thunder, 121-92.

OKC was without two of its top three centers in the loss to the Grizzlies with Adams and Mike Muscala out, but Muscala will be back in the rotation on Sunday. This is important because the only other center on the roster, Nerlens Noel, is a decent rim protecter but also has an extremely high foul rate.

Although the Wizards have been battling hard in the bubble, they are simply overmatched. They were already terrible defensively coming into Orlando and losing several of their most talented players hasn’t helped.

Coach Scott Brooks has identified two main aspects where his Wizards must improve: staying in front of the ball and rim protection.

Bryant has made considerable strides, but on the season, opponents have shot 61% against him on contested layups and dunks (25th among 30 qualified centers who have challenged as many shots as him).

These defensive deficiencies for the Wizards play right into Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands. The Thunder guard not only has a crafty set of tools to get by defenders on the perimeter (crossovers, spins, hesitation moves, euro-steps, etc), but he also has incredible body control and elite length for his position which makes him a lethal finisher around the rim.

With Schroeder out as the backup point guard, SGA will have more opportunities than normal at the point against the Wizards’ poor on-ball defense. Furthermore, expect Chris Paul to operate with ease against and set up some wide open looks for Gilgeous-Alexander.

After SGA posted one of his worst offensive outings of the season on Friday, we’re getting pretty good value on Gilgeous-Alexander’s points prop against this porous Wizards defense.

The NBA returned to play on July 30 in a bubble at Disney World in Orlando, Florida. With 22 teams all playing eight games to determine seeding and playoff position, there was an opportunity for bookmakers to set bubble win totals.

Which teams have cashed their over or under tickets?

We track them all right here, based on consensus closing totals.

OVER
Phoenix Suns O 2.5

San Antonio Spurs O 2.5

Brooklyn Nets O 2.5

UNDER
Milwaukee Bucks U 6.5

New Orleans Pelicans U 5.5

Los Angeles Lakers U 5.5

Utah Jazz U 4.5

UNDETERMINED
Over/under: 5.5
Boston Celtics (3-2)

L.A. Clippers (3-2)

Philadelphia 76ers (3-1)

O/U: 4.5
Dallas Mavericks (2-3)

Houston Rockets (3-1)

Indiana Pacers (4-1)

Miami Heat (2-3)

Oklahoma City Thunder (2-2)

Toronto Raptors (3-1)

O/U 3.5
Denver Nuggets (3-2)

Memphis Grizzlies (1-4)

Orlando Magic (2-3)

Portland Trail Blazers (3-2)

Sacramento Kings (1-4)

O/U: 1.5
Washington Wizards (0-5)