Russian Super Liga

Vitalii Bazilevskii vs. Viktor Ivanov
Bazilevskii: -135
Ivanov: +104
4:30 p.m. ET
The man with six i’s in his name is favored, but Ivanov at plus-money looks good to me. He’s lost four of five to Bazilevskii this past week, but since the beginning of March, it’s actually Ivanov with a 17-11 H2H edge.

When we take a look at their recent form, V-Baz (I’ve decided he needs a nickname) is 9-11 since last Friday, but once again it’s Ivanov who’s been better at 14-9. Is the wrong guy favored??

Perhaps V-Baz will keep his very recent hot streak against Ivanov going, but after taking a look at the bigger picture, Ivanov at plus-money looks like the only choice for me in this one.

Sets Per Match Differential (Past 50 matches unless noted)

Kutuzov: +1.4
Shirokov: +0.94
Smirnov: +0.48
Abramov: +0.44 (27 matches)
Petrov: +0.3
Shagarov: +0.28
Chentsov: +0.22 (32 matches)
Volkov: +0.10
Menshikov: +0.08
Ermilov: -0.12
Maksakov: -0.25 (12 matches)
Lyfenko: -1.82

Lots of so-so players in this group, with Kutuzov really sticking out as the cream of the crop. Then you have Noah Lyfenko, who has been so damn bad that I am not seeing any odds for his matches. He’s on a 25-match losing streak

Smirnov vs. Volkov
4 p.m. ET

Smirnov: -145
Volkov: +112
With a set differential of nearly +0.5, Igor Smirnov has been the third-best player in this group. Aleksandr Volkov has been a hair above average at +0.10, but has been better as of late. Both players have had very similar recent performances, posting identical records since May 1st.

In the H2H department, things have been fairly close recently, but Smirnov has a 19-9 record overall against Volkov with a lofty +0.78 set differential. With that in mind, laying the juice is the way to go here.

Kutuzov vs. Menshikov
4 p.m. ET

Kutuzov: -185
Menshikov: +140
Oleg Kutuzov, the king of this group, is understandably a solid favorite vs. the middling Andrey Menshikov. The only reason he’s not a bigger favorite is because he has a 17-18 record vs. Menshikov dating all the way back to April 12, though he is 6-1 in their past 7 bouts.

Kutuzkov’s odds suggest he will win ~65% of the time. You can decide for yourself if you want to lay the juice. I would say it’s either that or hold off, as +140 isn’t quite enough to fade the hot hand.

Abramov vs. Shirokov
4 p.m. ET

Abramov: -145
Shirokov: +112
Based on the set differentials, this may not make sense. However, Shirokov has actually played poorly as of late. He took a four-day break and is 5-10 since returning on May 2nd.

They’ve played each other four times, splitting the matches and posting an equal amount of sets. All of those have come since Shirokov’s return.

Even though he’s played poorly since returning, Shirokov has shown he can handle Abramov. Give me the plus-money.

Petrov vs. Chentsov
4:30 p.m. ET

Petrov: -175
Chentsov: +134
Not much of an angle that I can find here. Chentsov has a limited sample size to go off of and the two have played against one another just four times, with Petrov taking three matches.

Maksakov vs. Ermilov
4:30 p.m. ET

Maksakov: -175
Ermilov: +134
Not much doing here, either. Maksakov has only played a dozen matches thus far and is 6-6. Not great, but from what I’ve seen, a lot of the newcomers have started off with horrendous losing streaks. Breaking even out of the chute is actually promising.

Chentsov vs. Shirokov
5 p.m. ET

Chentsov: -240
Shirokov: +180
Thanks to Chentsov’s 4-0 H2H record, all in the past couple of days, he is the sizable favorite over Shirokov despite the latter’s better overall play. I’m going to hold off on this one.

Erlimov vs. Menshikov
5 p.m. ET

Erlimov: +134
Menshikov: -175
Holding off here. Menshikov is the slightly better player and has a 12-9 record vs. Erlimov. If anything, I would probably take Erlimov, especially if his price gets a bit better before … whatever you call the start of a ping pong match.